Dual Benefits of Intensification From Possible to Practical - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dual Benefits

• f Intensification

From Possible to Practical

Objective

Put a question before you Is it time for a serious examination of intensifying forest management to meet wood supply and conservation goals?

Recap a success story NB possibilities Implementation realities Pre-requisites for success Some context

• We want more wood & more forest conservation
• More conservation forest = less wood supply

Wood Production Conservation

3 Constants

Some Context

• More wood supply = less conservation forest

True only if

• We want more wood & more forest conservation
• More conservation forest = less wood supply

3 Constants

Some Context

• More wood supply = less conservation forest

2

Growth rates are fixed

1

Growing stock constraint exists

Volume 1980 2020 2000 2040

True only if

• We want more wood & more forest conservation
• More conservation forest = less wood supply

3 Constants

Some Context

• More wood supply = less conservation forest

Wood Production Conservation

How to Change?

Mean Annual Increment Wood Supply from Fixed Area

Increase growth rate

• More wood supply on fixed area

Some Context

Mean Annual Increment Area Needed To Produce Fixed Volume Opportunity to Increase Conservation

• r PNA Area

Increase growth rate

• More wood supply on fixed area
• Less area for a fixed wood supply

Some Context

• More wood supply

Wood Production Conservation

Potential solution

• If growth rates are significantly increased
• More conservation/PNA forest

Some Context

Dual Benefit

Recap a success story NB possibilities Implementation realities Pre-requisites for success Some context

45o N 45o S

New Zealand

New Zealand

Forest = 9.5 million ha

20 40 60 80 100

% of Forest Area % of Harvest Volume

~18% ~82%

Plantation Forest Natural Forest (conservation)

100% exotic species (P. radiate) Site prep with herbicides

New Zealand

Plantation Forest = 1.7 million ha Intensive management

improved stock (3x generation)

Intermediate treatments pruning

New Zealand

Plantation Forest = 1.7 million ha Intensive management

thinning

Ultra-high

8m

both

Rapid growth

New Zealand

Plantation Forest = 1.7 million ha Intensive management

High yields (20-25 m3/ha/yr) Short rotations

Quid Pro Quo

Quid Pro Quo

Quid Pro Quo

Conserved native forest > 4x production forest Vibrant forest economy (on 18% of forest) NZ is a tourism mecca (largely because of its environment) Very aggressive timber management regimes Tourism = #2 $ contributor to economy Forestry = #3 $ contributor to economy

New Zealand

Peaceful (& productive) Co-existence

Recap a success story NB possibilities Implementation realities Pre-requisites for success Some context

NB Possibilities

But can we capture the dual benefit of intensification?

Crown AAC (million m3/yr)

Current AACs

NB Possibilities

Cedar

0.15

White Pine

0.16

Hardwood

1.90

SFjP

3.95

SFjP Hardwood Cedar White Pine

Intensification Potential

NB Possibilities

Potential To Increase Growth

Low High

Site selection Site prep Improved stock Density/stocking control Competition control

10 20 30 40 50 60 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Annual Increment (m3/ha/yr) % Forest Area for Wood Production

NB Possibilities

Growth vs Area for Wood Production To produce 4 million m3/yr (current SFjP AAC)

38 29 23 19 16 14 13

10 20 30 40 50 60 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Annual Increment (m3/ha/yr) % Forest Area for Wood Production

NB Possibilities

Growth vs Area for Wood Production To produce 4 million m3/yr (current SFjP AAC)

JDI Plantation Data

Black Spruce

Intensification Potential

NB Possibilities

White spruce Black Spruce

JDI Plantation Data

Intensification Potential

NB Possibilities

White spruce Black Spruce Norway Spruce

JDI Plantation Data

7

Intensification Potential

NB Possibilities

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Annual Increment (m3/ha/yr) % Forest Area for Wood Production Wood Supply (million m3/yr)

4

NB Possibilities

Growth vs Area for Wood Production

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Annual Increment (m3/ha/yr) % Forest Area for Wood Production Wood Supply (million m3/yr)

4 6

NB Possibilities

Growth vs Area for Wood Production

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Annual Increment (m3/ha/yr) % Forest Area for Wood Production Wood Supply (million m3/yr)

4 6 8

NB Possibilities

Growth vs Area for Wood Production

Jaakko Poyry

• No intensification for these species
• Realize MAI of 2.5 m3/ha/yr (Extensive)

Some Scenarios & Assumptions

NB Possibilities

• 0.88 million ha to meet combined AAC

(26% of Crown forest)

Hardwood Cedar White Pine SFjP

• Maintain at 4 million m3/yr (current)
• Increase to 6 million m3/yr
• Increase to 8 million m3/yr

NB Possibilities

Growth vs Land Allocation

20 40 60 80 100 2.5 5 7 9

% of Forest MAI of Plantations (m3/ha/yr)

Protected Extensive (2.5 m3/ha/yr) Intensive (plantations)

SF AAC @ 4 million m3/yr

Triad Concept

NB Possibilities

Growth vs Land Allocation

20 40 60 80 100 2.5 5 7 9

% of Forest MAI of Plantations (m3/ha/yr)

Protected Extensive (2.5 m3/ha/yr) Intensive (plantations)

SF AAC @ 4 million m3/yr

24 49 26

Triad Concept

NB Possibilities

20 40 60 80 100 2.5 5 7 9

% of Forest MAI of Plantations (m3/ha/yr)

Protected Extensive (2.5 m3/ha/yr) Intensive (plantations)

24 49 24 49

Growth vs Land Allocation SF AAC @ 4 million m3/yr

26 26

NB Possibilities

20 40 60 80 100 2.5 5 7 9

% of Forest MAI of Plantations (m3/ha/yr)

Protected Extensive (2.5 m3/ha/yr) Intensive (plantations)

24 49 24 49 17 56

Growth vs Land Allocation SF AAC @ 4 million m3/yr

26 26 26

NB Possibilities

20 40 60 80 100 2.5 5 7 9

% of Forest MAI of Plantations (m3/ha/yr)

Protected Extensive (2.5 m3/ha/yr) Intensive (plantations)

24 49 24 49 17 56 60 14

Growth vs Land Allocation SF AAC @ 4 million m3/yr

26 26 26 26

NB Possibilities

% of Forest SF Wood Supply (million m3/yr)

Protected Extensive (2.5 m3/ha/yr) Intensive (plantations)

20 40 60 80 100 4 6 8

Land Allocation at Different AACs Intensive: growth at 7m3/ha/yr

56 17 26

4

NB Possibilities

% of Forest SF Wood Supply (million m3/yr)

Protected Extensive (2.5 m3/ha/yr) Intensive (plantations)

20 40 60 80 100 4 6 8

56 17 26 26 26 47

Land Allocation at Different AACs Intensive: growth at 7m3/ha/yr

4 6

NB Possibilities

% of Forest SF Wood Supply (million m3/yr)

Protected Extensive (2.5 m3/ha/yr) Intensive (plantations)

20 40 60 80 100 4 6 8

56 17 26 26 26 26 35 47 39

Land Allocation at Different AACs Intensive: growth at 7m3/ha/yr

4 6 8

Recap a success story NB possibilities Implementation realities Pre-requisites for success Some context

Implementation Realities

Some Problems/Challenges to Consider

timing transition space (location) collateral impacts performance

Time Wood Supply

Loss Gain

Increase PNA Gain from Intensification

Loss = Gain

Intensify Mgmt

Implementation Realities

Problem of Timing

* *If growing stock is limiting

Time Wood Supply Protected Area

Implementation Realities

Problem of Timing

how to increase PNA & maintain wood supply?

Time Wood Supply Protected Area

Implementation Realities

Problem of Timing

gradual increase in PNA harvest some area then assign to PNA mitigate wood supply loss

Implementation Realities

Problem of Transition

how to source supply until full reliance on plantations? if plantations can fully provide SF supply % of Forest SF Wood Supply (million m3/yr)

Protected Extensive (2.5 m3/ha/yr) Intensive (plantations)

20 40 60 80 100 4 6 8

56 17 26 26 26 26 35 47 39

Implementation Realities

Problem of Transition

7 m3/ha/yr MAI

• 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 ha 1000s Stand Age

Required plantation age structure plant 15 000 ha/yr to sustain 4.2 mill m3/yr 40 year rotation 600 000 ha (17%)

Implementation Realities

Problem of Transition

7 m3/ha/yr MAI

• 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 ha 1000s Stand Age 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 ha 1000s Stand Age

Required plantation age structure Current plantation age structure plant 15 000 ha/yr to sustain 4.2 mill m3/yr 40 year rotation 600 000 ha (17%)

Implementation Realities

Problem of Transition

• 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 ha 1000s Stand Age 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 ha 1000s Stand Age

Required plantation age structure to sustain 4.2 mill m3/yr Current plantation age structure

Structural deficit

7 m3/ha/yr MAI plant 15 000 ha/yr 40 year rotation 600 000 ha (17%)

• 1

2 3 4 5 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Million m3/yr Year

Implementation Realities

Problem of Transition

4.2 mill m3/yr

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ha 1000s Stand Age Plantation

Current plantation age structure Harvest from existing plantations

• 1

2 3 4 5 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Million m3/yr Year Plantation

Implementation Realities

Problem of Transition

4.2 mill m3/yr

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ha 1000s Stand Age Plantation

Current plantation age structure Harvest from existing plantations

• 1

2 3 4 5 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Million m3/yr Year Plantation

Implementation Realities

Problem of Transition

4.2 mill m3/yr

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ha 1000s Stand Age Plantation

Current plantation age structure

Volume deficit

Harvest from existing plantations

Implementation Realities

Problem of Transition

Current plantation age structure

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ha 1000s Stand Age Plantation PCT

4.2 mill m3/yr account for PCT area

1 2 3 4 5 6 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Million m3/yr Year Plantation

Harvest from existing plantations

Implementation Realities

Problem of Transition

Current plantation & PCT age structure

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ha 1000s Stand Age Plantation PCT 1 2 3 4 5 6 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Million m3/yr Year Plantation

Harvest from existing plantations 4.2 mill m3/yr account for PCT area

Implementation Realities

Problem of Transition

Current plantation & PCT age structure Volume from Existing Plantations & PCTs age structure

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ha 1000s Stand Age Plantation PCT

• 1

2 3 4 5 6 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Million m3/yr Year Plantation PCT

4.2 mill m3/yr account for PCT area account for PCT volume

Implementation Realities

Problem of Transition

Current plantation & PCT age structure Volume from Existing Plantations & PCTs age structure

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ha 1000s Stand Age Plantation PCT

• 1

2 3 4 5 6 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Million m3/yr Year Plantation PCT

4.2 mill m3/yr

Volume deficit

account for PCT area account for PCT volume

Implementation Realities

Problem of Transition

• 1

2 3 4 5 6 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Million m3/yr Year Plantation PCT

4.2 mill m3/yr

Volume deficit

natural stands in general forest thinnings conservation area

Implementation Realities

Possible transition strategy Immediate increase in planting levels Immediate, but gradual PNA increase to target

to 15 000 ha/yr for 4.2 million m3/yr harvest how to accomplish that? to 21 000 ha/yr for 6.0 million m3/yr harvest

General forest Protected area Conservation forest Protected area No harvest Conservation forest Non-timber values Minimal harvest General forest Primary objective

• f timber harvest

Implementation Realities

Possible transition strategy

General forest Protected area Conservation forest

Implementation Realities

Conservation forest to PNA after partial harvest General forest to PNA after partial harvest

Implementation Realities

Some consequences

partially harvested stands in PNAs rich diversity of structure future mature & old forest mitigate wood supply impacts in transition expensive & exacting harvests gradual increase in PNA extent

Implementation Realities

Problem of Space

where to locate intensive mgmt areas high productivity sites not uniformly distributed small & scattered? few & concentrated?

Implementation Realities

Problem of Space

where to locate PNAs?

Implementation Realities

Problem of Space

where to locate PNAs?

Implementation Realities

Problem of Space

where to locate PNAs?

distribute to old forest habitat? cluster around existing PNAs?

Implementation Realities

Problem of “Collateral Impacts”

Protection efficiency Worker Safety Road density Management Intensity

?

Y

Economic efficiency Road/bridge quality Soil quality Flexibility/Reversiblity Fragmentation Pest Vulnerability

Implementation Realities

Problem of Performance

at top of our silviculture game full site occupancy minimal loss to roads/landings effective competition control

Recap a success story NB possibilities Implementation realities Pre-requisites for success Some context

acknowledge existing indigenous forest should be maintained acknowledge importance of plantation forestry as:

• sustainable source of wood

products & energy

• means to promote protection
• f natural forest

“landmark document, ending years of hostility between conservationists & foresters”

New Zealand

Enabled by 1991 Accord

Acadian Forest Accord

Willingness to reach agreement Acceptance of a quid pro quo and compromise Buy-in from all credible quarters Recognition of First Nations’ rights Trust, goodwill, wisdom & maturity

ACADIAN

Objective

Put a question before you Is it time for a serious examination of intensifying forest management to meet wood supply and conservation goals? What’s your answer?

Thanks……

And thanks to NB-ERD Thomas Baglole Chris Hennigar Chris Ward