Draft results for the integrated contamination status Background Document 3 and Document 5 HELCOM SPICE HZ WS 1-2017 16 March 2017 3/17/2017 1
CHASE integration • CHASE agreed to be used to develop an integrated contamination status assessment for HOLAS II, the integrated assessment results should not be expressed in terms of GES/sub-GES (HOD 51-2016 outcome para 6.34) • Method developed in BalticBOOST project, described in Document 2 • Clarification on confidence minimum requirement penalty to be concluded on based on information by DE at EN-HZ 6- 2017 3/17/2017 2
Core indicators and integrations BalticBOOST HZ WS 2-2016 • Proposed that ’all available’ substances could be integrated, to increase overall confidence in the assessment • Not many additional substances (to core indicators, RBSP, three additional substances (HCB, DDE, Cu)) are anticiapted to be available, measurements from non-core indicator matrices may be available HOLAS II 5-2016 • Invited S&C 5-2016 to conclude on whether to exclude bio-effect indicators • Noted that EQS exist for HCB, DDE, but for Cu a threshold needs to be agreed • Did not support integrating all available substances • Proposed integrating only core indicators State&Conservation 5-2016 (outcome para 4J.75) • Agreed that only core indicators are to be integrated • Agreed that bio-effects should be excluded • Assessment gives overall contamination status 3/17/2017 3
’R’ The journey of the ’MIME - script’ through the HELCOM decision making process 3/17/2017 4
The journey of the ’MIME - script’ through the HELCOM decision making process 2015 2015 • CORESET II HZBE, 2-4 Feb (outcome para 3.6-3.13) – Doc presented by SE: comparison MIME-method to HELCOM method(=SE method) – Con Conclusio ion: some differences between methods, but outcomes do not differ significantly, agreed to continue work on more detailed comparisons of method. Noting that SE method is not automated script. 3/17/2017 5
The journey of the ’MIME - script’ through the HELCOM decision making process 2016 2016 • EN-HZ 1-2016, 2-4 Feb (outcome points 6-10) – Doc by SE: clarifying comments to outstanding issues – rec ecommended usin using the scrip script • 2x intersessional meetings with EN-HZ Co-Chairs, script developer and HELCOM and ICES secretariats, two test runs of the script • EN-HZ 2-2016 noting that more lenient data-requirements (metadata) applied to script compared to when used in OSPAR • HELCOM BalticBOOST HZ WS 2-2016, September (outcome point 15) – recommended that CH CHAS ASE too ool sho hould ld use use indi ndicator resu esult lt valu alues base based on on the the upp upper 95th th con onfid idence limi mit instead of an average as calculated by MIME R-script, as this would make the assessment more robust and more representative for the station. If the MIME R-script is applied, it was noted that the upper • EN-HZ 4-2016 noted that each indicator lead should consider script from their indicators perspective and ensure method is suitable 3/17/2017 6
The journey of the ’MIME - script’ through the HELCOM decision making process 2016 2016 • State&Conservation 5-2016, (outcome para 4J.22) – Endorse expert proposal to use OSPAR assessment method (cf. MIME-script) – Denmark places general study reservation • HOD 51-2016, December (outcome para 6.15) – Denmark lifts study reservation on protocol for calculating hazardous substances indicators (cf. MIME-script) 2017 2017 • EN-HZ 6-2017, February – Denmark informally explains that the previous study reservation was due to the fact that the script uses 95% upper confidence values which differs from the WFD approach, however the aim is to use the same method as in OSPAR area i.e. The MIME-script – Note that stations for which only 1-2 years of data are available are not aggregated in the second step of the MIME-script as this is done based on the 95% upper confidence value derived based on a model requiring a minimum of 3 years of data. The points with less than 3 years of data only have an average value per station as output of MIME script 1st step and are referred to as ’initial status assessment’ 3/17/2017 7
HELCOM COMBINE data • Reporting deadline for mid-2017 version of HOLAS II was September 2016 • ’Extraction table’ developed through BalticBOOST project together with core indicator leads and EN-HZ – Development and review by EN-HZ; 1-2016, 2-2016, 3-2016, 4-2016 – Final version concluded on EN-HZ 5-2016 December – Intersessional adjustments made in mid-January 2017 for updated extracting accepted by EN-HZ 6-2017 February 3/17/2017 8
HELCOM COMBINE data • First extraction made in December 2016 for assessment period 2011-2015 3/17/2017 9
HELCOM COMBINE data • EN-HZ 5-2016 December – The Meeting noted that the currently extracted data is for the HOALS II assessment period 2011-2015. The Meeting recalled that the core indicator assessment protocol builds on timetrend analysis and that the calculated trend is more robust the longer the dataperiod that has been taken into account. Thus, the meeting concluded that it would be relevant to make the dataset extraction without a cut of for the start date, and requested ICES to carry out this change. – The Meeting further agreed that even if a robust timeseries is available for a previous period a minimum of one year of data needs to be available within the HOLAS II assessment period before the indicator evaluation can be made. 3/17/2017 10
HELCOM COMBINE data EN-HZ 5-2016 December any amendments to the dataset have to be done during week 2, i.e. 9-13 January 2017 to then extract for indicators – FI: dataset for trawled herring measurements missing, at least for metals (Hg muscle, Pb liver). 2013-2015 missing. Seawater data missing – EE: data was submitted in December missing – DE: PCB and PBDE data are missing, national clarifications with the Bundes länder are needed to clarify why the data are not available. – LT: data for 2015 on PFOS in water and biota (Mytilus and Macoma), TBT in water and sediments, HBCDD, FLU and BaP data in biota (Mytilus and Macoma) which has been submitter to ICES is missing Intersessional clarifications between CPs, HELCOM Sec and ICES Sec Dec-Jan 13.1. solved EE and LT questions 3/17/2017 11
HELCOM COMBINE data + foodsafety data • EN-HZ 5-2016 December, LT: addition to COMBINE, dioxin measurements by foodsafety authorities, appropriate format to be ensured • Intersessional clarification between LT, HELCOM Sec, ICES Sec: a) Only reported in ICES squares – coordinates to be inferred for mid-point, one of rectangles outside LT waters b) Salmon measured – not agreed indiciator species, excluded c) Reported for smoked samples – not comparable, excluded d) Pooled whole-fish samples – not MU, excluded None of the data fit the ’extraction table’ criteria During clarifying phone call env. had a good discussion with the deputy director of the Food and Veterinary Institute laboratory and they are really willing to find ways for future cooperation 3/17/2017 12
HELCOM COMBINE data • Final extraction made 18 January • 2011-2015 data provided in the national data approval process (workspace, State&Conservatino contacts, SE and FI follow up questions with Sec) • Full extracted data (all available years) run through the MIME-script 3/17/2017 13
Core indicator results EN-HZ 6-2017, 14-16 February • Calculated results finalized in batches on – 9 Feb sediment&water and half biota, 13 Feb biota • EN-HZ 6-2017 produced – Indicator result tables, based on aggregated results (MIME- script step 2), see Document 3 – Some initial result tables, based on averages (MIME-script step 1) – Overview of data-issues to be resolved in time for the update in mid-2018 ( Annex 2 ) 3/17/2017 14
Discussion on how to deal with ’Initial status assessment’ • 1st step in MIME-script gives an average value per station • 2nd step in MIME-script produces an aggregated indicator result value per area when at least 3 years of data is available, a model is fitted giving 95% confidence value this ’full data’ is the core indicator result, and integrated in CHASE • Stations with 1-2 years of data fall out from the second step, thus fall out of the indicator result and the integration of the results, data referred to by EN-HZ 6- 2017 as ’ initial status assessment ’ NB : ’initial status assessment’ data is extracted from COMBINE using extraction table, so suitable to use in the core indicators as such (matrices cf. thresholds) 3/17/2017 15
EXAMPLE: step 1 MIME script output, ’initial status assessment’ station and ’full data’ station 3/17/2017 16
Initial status assessment station Pihlavanlahti Raw data with assessment Raw data with supporting information Assessment plot 3/17/2017 17
’full’ status assessment station Bothnian Sea offshore Raw data with assessment Raw data with supporting information Assessment plot 3/17/2017 18
Core indicators results compiled at EN-HZ 6-2017 (14-16 Feb) Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD) • 167 µg/kg ww whole fish, EQS biota secondary poisoning – 7 open sea AU all green (CR 0.05-0.005) – 7 coastal AU all green (CR 0.002-0.009) o Initial status assessment o 12 coastal stations (DK, PL, SE) all green (CR 0.0022-0.0001) 3/17/2017 19
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