Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? Nadia Raïssi Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Appliquées 19 Avril 2018 Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
Motivation ◮ Sustainability Management stocks’s conservation necessity of the "pur et dur" rebuilding program for overexploited capture fishery resources Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
Motivation ◮ Sustainability Management stocks’s conservation necessity of the "pur et dur" rebuilding program for overexploited capture fishery resources ◮ Bioeconomic Modelling Decision Support ◭ Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
conceptual framework 1931 with Hotelling works = natural resource economics. Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
conceptual framework 1931 with Hotelling works = natural resource economics. 1955 static analysis Scott and Gordon MSY Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
conceptual framework 1931 with Hotelling works = natural resource economics. 1955 static analysis Scott and Gordon MSY 1975 Clark and Munro brought the theories capital and investment into fisheries economics; dynamical analysis. Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
Gordon 1956 "The conservation ...requires a dynamic formulation. . . for use at a future date . . . it is necessary to arrive at an optimum , which is a catch per unit of time, and one must reach this objective through consideration of the interaction between the rate of catch, the dynamics of fish populations, and the economic time- preference schedule of the community or the interest rate on invested capital. This is a very complicated problem and I suspect that we will have to look to the mathematical economists for assistance in clarifying it" Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
1975 Bioeconomic management school created by C.Clark Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
Clark’s Fundamental Fishery Model FFM Resource dynamic ˙ X = F ( X ) − h ( X ) (1) X ( 0 ) = X 0 0 ≤ h ≤ h max Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
Clark’s Fundamental Fishery Model FFM Resource dynamic ˙ X = F ( X ) − h ( X ) (1) X ( 0 ) = X 0 0 ≤ h ≤ h max Income �� ∞ � e − δ t ( p − c ( X )) h ( X ) dt Max . (2) 0 Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
MRAP’solution bionomic equilibrium F ′ ( X ⋆ ) − c ′ ( X ⋆ )( F ( X ⋆ ) = δ. (3) p − c ( X ⋆ ) capital theory Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
MRAP’solution bionomic equilibrium F ′ ( X ⋆ ) − c ′ ( X ⋆ )( F ( X ⋆ ) = δ. (3) p − c ( X ⋆ ) capital theory MRAP h max , if X > X ⋆ ; F ( X ⋆ ) , if X = X ⋆ ; h ( X ) = (4) if X < X ⋆ . 0 , investment theory Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
key’s indicators in Morocco ≃ 15 % GDP 7 % Annual growth turnover; 10 % exportation 10 % population lives on this activity. Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
FFM’s Limits the demand for harvested fish and the supply of fishing effort are perfectly elastic. Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
FFM’s Limits the demand for harvested fish and the supply of fishing effort are perfectly elastic. the produced capital and the human capital employed in the fishery are perfectly malleable. Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
FFM’s Limits the demand for harvested fish and the supply of fishing effort are perfectly elastic. the produced capital and the human capital employed in the fishery are perfectly malleable. research perspectives "...non-malleable human capital—an issue of particular importance to developing coastal states" "...intra-EEZ management of fisheries and the application of game theory." 2017 Survey Colin W. Clark and Gordon R. Munro, (University of British Columbia) Capital Theory and the Economics of Fisheries: Implications for Policy Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
FFM’s Development 1/3 ecosystem approach Fleet Distribution between different areas no long individual fishery assets, but species portfolio as a whole. Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
FFM’s Development 1/3 ecosystem approach Fleet Distribution between different areas no long individual fishery assets, but species portfolio as a whole. Protected Marine Areas Artificial Coral Reef (in the Mediterranean Sea) Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
FFM’s Development 1/3 ecosystem approach Fleet Distribution between different areas no long individual fishery assets, but species portfolio as a whole. Protected Marine Areas Artificial Coral Reef (in the Mediterranean Sea) Pricing Policy Investment-quasi malleability of produced capital variable prices-relaxing the perfect elasticity of the demand Premier Congrés Franco‘Marocain de Mathématiques Nadia Raïssi ( Mohammed V University in Rabat Faculty of Sciences Laboratory Mathematical Analysis and Applications (LAMA) Did mathematical modelling really matter for fishery policy purposes ? / 41
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