Development of lookup tables of climate change impact on national - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Development of lookup tables of climate change impact on national - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Development of lookup tables of climate change impact on national water resources Naota Hanasaki (NIES) hanasaki@nies.go.jp What is lookup table of climate change impact? Typical impact studies Lookup table approach 1. Develop a detailed


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SLIDE 1

Development of lookup tables of climate change impact

  • n national water resources

Naota Hanasaki (NIES) hanasaki@nies.go.jp

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SLIDE 2

What is lookup table

  • f climate change impact?

Typical impact studies

1. Develop a detailed model 2. Develop a detailed climate scenario 3. Run the model 4. Analyze several simulation runs

Lookup table approach

1. Using a detailed model, run hundreds of simulations by changing climate conditions. 2. Develop a database of response to climate change (lookup table).

  • Computationally expensive
  • Difficult to incorporate into

integrated models

  • 1℃

+1℃ +2℃

  • 25%

1 6 8 1 7 1 7 3 1 7 6 3 8 3 1 1 3 1 4 3 1 8

+25%

4 6 2 4 6 5 4 6 9 4 7 3

+50%

6 2 2 6 2 5 6 2 9 6 3 3

  • Ex. Water Resources in Japan [km3/yr]

(2 explanatory variables: T and P) H07

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What we did?

  • We developed lookup tables of

– Annual renewable fresh water resources

(=annual total river discharge)

– Water stressed population

(=number of people living in areas less than 1000m3/ yr RFWR)

  • For

– 251 nations

+ 35 states in India + 34 provinces in China

  • We intensively validated

– Incorporate the lookup tables

into AIM / Impact[Policy]

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Is the simulation results using the lookup tables comparable to the results using the detailed model?

  • We incorporated the lookup table into the

AIM / Impact[Policy], and compared the results (AIP) with the results using the original model (H07).

  • Water-Stressed population by country
  • 2020s, 2050s, 2080s, SRES:A1B, (GCM : HadCM 3)
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Is the simulation results using the lookup table comparable to the results of IPCC/ AR4?

  • Our simulation results fairly compared with the estimations of

three references cited in IPCC/ AR4 (Arnell et al. 2004; Alcamo et al. 2007; Shen et al. 2008)

  • Water-Stressed population in the world
  • 1980s, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s, SRES:B1, A2, (GCM : HadCM 3)
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M ore information?

  • English translation of two papers available
  • We start to integrate these lookup tables into

AIM models.

  • Any comments, questions, requests

– Naota Hanasaki

hanasaki@nies.go.jp