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Development of a Methodology for Temporal and Spatial Resolution of Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories for Validation Jochen Theloke, H. Pfeiffer, T. Pregger, Y. Scholz, R. Kble, U. Kummer, D. Nicklass, B. Thiruchittampalam and R. Friedrich

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SLIDE 1
  • 28. Sept. 2007

2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

Development of a Methodology for Temporal and Spatial Resolution of Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories for Validation

Jochen Theloke, H. Pfeiffer, T. Pregger, Y. Scholz, R. Köble, U. Kummer,

  • D. Nicklass, B. Thiruchittampalam and R. Friedrich

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER), University of Stuttgart Department Technology Assessment and Environment (TFU)

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2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

Introduction Model description Spatial resolution Temporal resolution Height release of emissions Model Application to Greenhouse gas inventories Uncertainties and further improvements Conclusion and Outlook Outline

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2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

Greenhouse Gas Emission data can be validated by measurements (Point measurements in space and time) Such comparisons of modelled and measured concentrations requires modelling of atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions by atmospheric dispersion models. Atmospheric models need emission data with high temporal and spatial resolution The temporal and spatial allocation of emissions need also a model approach Introduction

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2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

Emission Calculation Model (ECM) Structure and Data Interface

Country Totals (UNFCCC, IIASA, EMEP, Scenarios…) Sectoral Allocation at SNAP3+1) Point Sources at NUTS Level Grid Temporal Resolution at Land Use Level

Spatial Resolution

11

1) Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollution, with the level of disagrigation 3+

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2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

IER European Emission Model

275 sectors (source groups) 177 temporal profiles 220 NMVOC profiles

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2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

Spatial resolution area sources ~ 2.570 geo_ids 1 x 1 km or 3 x 3 km land use data

IER European Emission Model

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2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

IER European Emission Model

Spatial resolution line sources ~118.000 road segments

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SLIDE 8
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2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

IER European Emission Model

# # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # ### # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## ## # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## ## # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # ## # # # # ## # ## # # # ## # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # ## # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # ## ## ## # # # # # ## # # # # ## # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # ### # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # ## # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # ### # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # ## # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #

Spatial resolution point sources 5.466 LPS from CORINAIR Or 8.082 sources from EPER

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  • 28. Sept. 2007

2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

IER German Emission Model

523 sectors (Europe: 275) 173 temporal profiles (Europe: 177) 89 NMVOC profiles (Europe: 220) area sources ~ 450 geo_ids (Europe: 2.570) 1 x 1 km land use data line sources ~83.000 road segments (Europe: 118.000) point sources ~48.000 sources (Europe: 5.466)

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  • 28. Sept. 2007

2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

Spatially resolved emissions (10x10km) of NOx in the year 2000 [t/km²]

Spatial Resolution: Example of Application

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2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

Implementation of greenhouse gas inventories to the IER emission model

Download and processing the available UNFCCC GHG emission

inventories for all considered countries Assignment of emissions to administrative units Assignment from CRF to SNAP For detailed allocation of the GHG emissions to SNAP Level 2, 3 and 3+ were used the NOx emissions as an allocation parameter For GHG emissions from agriculture were used the CH4 emissions as a proxy to allocate UNFCCC data to detailed SNAP sectors Assignment of all source groups to temporal profiles

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2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

Spatially resolved (10 x 10 km) emissions of CO2 and CO in the year 2000 [t/km²]

Spatial Resolution: Example of Application-Germany

CO2 Emissions in kt

<50 50-250 250-750 750-1500 1500-3000 3000-6000 6000-10000 10000-20000 >20000

CO Emissions in kt

<0.5 0.5-1 1-10 10-50 >50

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2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

wor king time s, shift time s wor king time s, holidays

  • il tr
  • ughput, fue l use

R e fine r ie s use r be haviour use r be haviour fue l use , de gr e e days (te mpe r atur e ) Small c ombustion plants wor king time s, shift time s wor king time s, holidays pr

  • duc tion

Industr ial pr

  • c e sse s

hour ly tr affic c ounts tr affic c ounts tr affic c ounts R

  • ad tr

anspor t Indic ator data for hour ly r e solution Indic ator data for daily r e solution Indic ator data for monthly r e solution Se c tor L T O c yc le s, passe nge r and fr e ight numbe r s L T O c yc le s, passe nge r and fr e ight numbe r s L T O c yc le s, passe nge r and fr e ight numbe r s Air tr anspor t wor king time s wor king time s, holidays fue l use , de gr e e days (te mpe r atur e ), pr

  • duc tion

Industr ial c ombustion plants load c ur ve s load c ur ve s fue l use Powe r plants

Socio-economic data describing temporal activity variation of selected emission sources

Temporal Resolution: Driving Forces

(s. http://gaia.agraria.unitus.it/ceuroghg/reportws3.pdf)

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SLIDE 14
  • 28. Sept. 2007

2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

Zeitkurve für Haushalte Raumwärme 1994 Wetterstation Augsburg 0,0001 0,0002 0,0003 0,0004 0,0005 0,0006 Anteil der Stunde [-] Jan Dez Nov Okt Sep Aug Jul Jun Mai Apr Mär Feb

Temporal resolution: heat demand of households

(based on meteorological data of Augsburg)

Share per hour [-]

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  • 28. Sept. 2007

2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

100% Agriculture 20% 80% Waste treatment and disposal 100% Other mobile sources and machineries 100% Road transport 100% Solvents 10% 90% Extraction of fossil fuel 10% 90% Production processes 50% 50% Combustion in manufacturing industry 50% 50% Non-industrial combustion plants 92% 8% Combustion in Energy and transformation industries High ~250m ~150m ground Emission height Source category

Distribution of gases in the EMEP emission inventory according to different height levels based on the source sector (de Meij et al., 2006)

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  • 28. Sept. 2007

2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

Results from a statistical error analysis of NMVOC and NOx emissions from mobile source activities (Kühlwein, J. 2004)

10% to 100%, depending on traffic volume Hourly resolution 14% 19% Areas (103 to 105 km2)

  • 30 to 40%
  • Evaporation

>35% >37%

  • Cold start

35% 37%

  • Hot engine

Urban traffic: 16-22% 21 to 26 % Specific road sections Variation Coefficients (68.3%-Confidence Interval) of modelled emissions NOx NMVOC Emission relevant activity

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  • 28. Sept. 2007

2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

Uncertainties

  • Yearly emission data (country totals) officially reported and reviewed,

associated with uncertainty estimations (10-50%).

  • Uncertainty analysis of emission data needs to address
  • uncertainty in magnitude of emissions,
  • uncertainty in spatial allocation,
  • uncertainty in temporal resolution,
  • uncertainty in substance resolution.
  • Therefore, a validation of emission data requires a scientific approach

considering model application/uncertainty, sensitivities, comparison of modelled and measured concentrations/source contributions, representatives of observations.

  • Detailed feedback from modellers is important for a further improvement
  • f the data base and the methodology.
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SLIDE 18
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2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

Conclusions and Outlook

  • The ECM model is able to provide highly resolved emission data for several

grids/models. Methodology for emission distribution could be applied for GHG. Uncertainties can usually not be quantified for spatial/temporal data. Validation/sensitivity studies and feedback from modellers are essential for improvements. Improvements in process: Point source coverages Vertical distribution Line source coverages (non-urban road traffic) Improvement/actualisation of Temporal profiles (temperature dependance, spatial variation, consistency) Update of land use data

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  • 28. Sept. 2007

2nd Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories Jochen Theloke

IER Working group on Emission Data Generation

Jochen Theloke - jt@ier.uni-stuttgart.de Daniel Nicklass – dn@ier.uni-stuttgart.de Balendra Thiruchittampalam - bt@ier.uni-stuttgart.de Renate Köble – nk@ier.uni-stuttgart.de Heiko Pfeiffer - hp@ier.uni-stuttgart.de Ulrike Kummer - uk@ier.uni-stuttgart.de Susanne Wagner – uw@ier.uni-stuttgart.de Rainer Friedrich - rf@ier.uni-stuttgart.de projects ► www.ier.uni-stuttgart.de

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