DRAFT
Developing Zandkopsdrift
a world-class rare earth project
February 2012
Frontier Rare Earths Limited TSX:FRO
Developing Zandkopsdrift a world-class rare earth project Frontier - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
DRAFT Developing Zandkopsdrift a world-class rare earth project Frontier Rare Earths Limited February 2012 TSX:FRO Safe Harbour Statement Forward-looking information Certain statements contained in or incorporated by reference into this
DRAFT
Frontier Rare Earths Limited TSX:FRO
Certain statements contained in or incorporated by reference into this presentation constitute “forward-looking statements”. Officers and representatives of Frontier Rare Earths Limited (the “Company”) may, in their remarks or in response to questions regarding this presentation, make certain statements which are “forward-looking statements” and are prospective. Forward-looking statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company, or developments in the Company’s business or its industry, to differ materially from the anticipated results, performance, achievements or developments expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s beliefs and opinions at the time the statements are made or presented, and undue reliance should not be placed on any of these forward-looking statements. There should be no expectation that these forward-looking statements will be updated or supplemented as a result of changing circumstances or otherwise, and the Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements.
2 │
Forward-looking information
3 │
4 │
37% 31% 14% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Magnets Phosphors Metal Alloys Catalysts Ceramics Polishing Other Glass
Value of RE usage by application
Source: Roskill 5 │
China
Continued restructuring of export quota system, forced industry consolidation and clampdown on illegal mining & processing likely to have significant price implications China has confirmed only 15-20 years reserves of heavy and medium REOs and are expected to be a net importer of these elements by 2015 Chinese export quotas have been reduced significantly since 2005 2012 quotas appear to have stabilised at c.30kt per annum, however: 2012 quota applies to a wider range of products First -time introduction of quotas for heavy (13%) and light REOs (87%) which is likely to increase the shortage of these critical rare earths outside China
Rest of World
Plans by several countries including China, Japan, South Korea and US announced to stockpile rare earths Major industrial users seeking to lock in long-term supply/partnership from credible potential producers i.e. Frontier/KORES, Lynas/Siemens Although FoB China prices have declined in recent months, there has been a significant increase in REO prices over the last 12 months 6 │
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
Tonnes REO
Chinese Export Quota
Global Supply and Demand (tonnes REO)
Source: Roskill,Freedonia Group
7 │
25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000 200,000 225,000 250,000 275,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015f 2020f
China supply ROW supply China demand ROW demand Total demand
8 │
9 │
10 │
Zandkopsdrift carbonatite complex Gravel road to N7 N7 tarred road to Cape Town Bitterfontein rail head (~44 km by road) Exxaro Resources Namakwa Sands Mine (~45 km)
11 │
12 │
13 │
Post-Tax NPV &IRR Post-Tax Net Present Value @ 11% discount rate $3.65bn NPV attributable to Frontier Rare Earths $3.60bn Post -Tax Internal Rate of Return 52.5% Pre -Tax NPV & IRR Pre-Tax Net Present Value @ 11% discount rate $4.3bn Pre-Tax Internal Rate of Return 57.6% Revenue and Cashflow Average annual revenue $1.1bn After-tax free cashflow in full production $711m Capital Expenditure Total construction capex excluding contingencies $910m Start-up costs excluding contingency $27m Project payback from commencement of full production 2 years Revenue and cost/kg Separated REO “Basket price” per kg of separated REO from Zandkopsdrift $58.23 Total cash operating cost/kg separated REO $13.08
14│
Koeburg Nuclear Power Station Koeburg Nuclear Power Station
Relative distribution of REOs in Zandkopsdrift is shown on page 47.Resource is NI 43-101 compliant and presented in accordance with CIM definitions The mineral resource estimates reflect 100% of the estimated resources at Zandkopsdrift. Frontier’s 74% owned subsidiary, Sedex, has complied with the BEE equity ownership requirements as laid down by the Mining Charter and MPRDA, through shareholder agreements with historically disadvantaged South African individuals and entities that together hold the remaining 26% of the issued share capital
the BEE Shareholders’ share of Sedex’s expenditure on the Zandkopsdrift Project up to bankable feasibility stage, a payment from certain of the BEE Shareholders following the completion
has been received.
15 │
2011 Resource Estimate Cut-off Grade
(TREO)
Tonnes (Millions) Average Grade
(TREO)
Contained TREO
(tonnes)
16 │
17 │
18 │
* including all stockpiled <2% grade material and waste
19 │
60% of current resource is exploited Pit Dimensions (approx) East -West extent 830m North-South extent 900m Maximum no. benches planned 12
20 │
21 │
process
acid crack
carbonate produced
22 │
23 │
24 │
Sichen to Saldanha iron ore export rail line Exxaro ilmenite smelter-Saldanha Bay Arcelor Mittal Saldanha Steel Works Saldanha Port
25 │
26 │
27 │
28 │
*excludes contingency but included in the PEA financial model and valuation 29 │ Sulphuric acid plant, $87.7m (9.6%) Mining and infrastructure at Zandkopsdrift, $79.4m (8.7%) Concentrator Plant, $132.1m (14.5%) Infrastructure at Saldanha, $112.6m (12.4%) Separation plant, $498.4m (54.8%)
30 │
(1) Capex based on refurbishment of existing mine and infrastructure (2) US$/A$ exchange rate of 1.07
Actual & Forecast Capex of Projects to produce separated REOs
Separation Plant Mine & Concentrator Start-up Capex
31 │
$0.86 $5.06 $0.06 $0.07 $7.03 $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00
Mining Concentrator & H2SO4 Plant Other costs Transport Separation Plant
32 │
Applying trailing 3 year FoB China prices, the Zandkopsdrift “basket price” per kg of separated REO price is $64.36/kg Applying the mid-point of Roskill’s 2015 price forecast ranges for the principal REOs, the Zandkopsdrift basket price is $52.10/kg PEA utilised the average of the 3 year China FoB price and the mid-point of Roskill’s 2015 forecast. This methodology reduces the impact of recent high rare earth oxide prices and results in a Zandkopsdrift PEA basket price of $58.23/kg At 31 December 2011, the PEA basket price represented a 58% discount to the China FOB price, a 20% discount to the China domestic price and a 9% discount to the 3 year average FoB China price
Rare Earth Oxide FoB China Price (1 Dec 2011) China Domestic Price (1 Dec 2011) 3 Year Avg. FoB China Price (Dec 2008-2011) Roskill 2015 price forecast PEA Basket Price Contribution to PEA Basket Lanthanum
64 17 42 20-35 35 15%
Cerium
54 19 41 10-15 27 20%
Praseodymium
20 100 81 80-120 91 7%
Neodymium
235 190 93 80-120 97 26%
Samarium
89 14 39 * 39 2%
Europium
3790 2048 1207 1,000-1,200 1154 12%
Gadolinium
133 36 56 * 56 1%
Terbium
2810 1517 1016 1,000-1,200 1058 3%
Dysprosium
1960 956 554 800-1000 727 10%
Yttrium
113 42 57 40-60 53 4% Zandkopsdrift Basket Price/kg $137.93 $72.13 $64.36 $52.10* $58.23 100%
33 │
34 │
Shin-Jong Kim, President and CEO of KORES (seated lhs) said:
35 │
36 │
Company Lynas Molycorp Avalon Rare Element Quest Arafura Tasman Frontier Deposit Mt Weld Mtn Pass Nechalacho Bear Lodge Strange Lake Nolan's Bore Norra Karr Central Zone Deposit Location Australia California NW Territories Wyoming Quebec Australia Sweden South Africa TREO Grade 8.08% 7.04% 1.70% 3.45% 1.20% 2.80% 0.54% 3.12% 2.28% Tonnes per annum 11kt / 22kt 19kt / 40kt 10kt 10kt 12kt 20kt 6kt 20kt Rare Earth Product Separated REO Separated REO Concentrate Concentrate Concentrate Separated REO N/A Separated REO Project stage Commissioning Commissioning PFS PEA PEA PFS Resource PEA Primary RE Mineral Monazite Bastnaesite Syenite Ancylite & bastnaesite Granite Fluorapatite & Cheralite Eudialyte Monazite Deposit type Pipe Pipe Tabular Dykes/veins Veins Veins Tabular Pipe Mining Method Open Pit Open Pit Underground Open Pit Open Pit Open Pit Open Pit Open Pit Climate Arid Arid Arctic Cold Cold Arid Moderate Good Infrastructure Poor Good Poor Good Poor Poor Good Good Industry Partner Yes Yes No No No No No Yes Market Cap $2.33bn $2.18bn $307m $277m $184m $139m $127m $103m Enterprise Value ($m) $2.09bn $1.62bn $247m $231m $139m $110m $112m $65m
37 │
PEA Resource 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PFS/DFS Resource PEA
Pre Feasibility Study Definitive Feasibility Study
Financing Construction Production Start-up
CIBC initiated coverage March 6 2011 - 12/18 month target price $7.30 Byron Capital initiated coverage March 17 2011 - 12/18 month price target $4.80 Jacob Securities initiated coverage June 8 2011 - 12 month price target $9.83 Cormark Securities initiated coverage Sept 13 2011 - 12 month price target $4.30
38 │ 20 40 60 80 100 120 Frontier Peer Average (RER, Quest, Arafura & Avalon)
Frontier Relative Share Price (rebased)
Chairman 25 years experience in natural resource sector. Founder and former Executive Chairman and CEO of Firestone Diamonds plc, an AIM-listed diamond mining company focused which built and operated diamond mines in South Africa, Botswana and Lesotho.
Vice President, Project Development 15+ years experience in minerals industry. Has managed
pre-feasibility and feasibility studies in Africa and Canada.
Chief Executive Officer 20+ years experience in natural resources sector as an executive, adviser and broker. Centrally involved in Frontier's corporate strategy and development activities since incorporation.
Chief Financial Officer 15+ years experience in investment banking and financial control with Arthur Anderson, Salomon Brothers, Schroders, Collins Stewart and MG Capital.
Vice President, Exploration 30+ years experience in mineral exploration with particular experience in rare earths, uranium, base metals and diamonds.
39 │
40 │
DRAFT
42 │
Africa Geo-Environmental Services Preliminary environmental assessment including archaeological, botanical, air quality, human health risk and radiological impact assessments Mine closure plan and estimate of financial provision Water fatal flaw analysis and water baseline study Africa Remediation Technologies Sea water desalination plant scoping study Benchmark Risk Advisory Independent risk assessment Cameron Cross Incorporated Environmental permitting legal opinion Corli Havenga Transportation Engineers Access routes and logistics surveys EHL Consulting Engineers Eskom bulk power supply application Epoch Resources Tailings disposal facility design KPMG Tax and corporate structure Metallurgical Development Services Independent process consultant MSA Group Geological model and mineral resource estimation SGS Minerals Services Beneficiation and hydrometallurgical studies SNC Lavalin Group Design of the concentrator, acid cracking, sulphuric acid and separation plants, including associated infrastructure and services, and capital and operating cost estimates Sound Mining Solution Geotechnical assessment and mine design Venmyn Rand Technical and economic review of the project, preparation of financial model and project valuation, preparation of independent technical report on the results of the PEA
43 │
$/Kg separated REO
70 65 60 58.23 55 50 45 8.0 6,530 5,854 5,178 4,939 4,502 3,826 3,152 9.0 5,909 5,291 4,673 4,454 4,054 3,436 2,819 10.0 5,361 4,793 4,226 4,025 3,659 3,092 2,525 11.0 4,874 4,352 3,830 3,646 3,308 2,786 2,265 12.0 4,441 3,960 3,478 3,308 2,997 2,515 2,035 13.0 4,055 3,610 3,165 3,007 2,719 2,274 1,829
Discount Rate %
44 │
‐ 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Total Cost US$m Mine & Concentrator ‐ Total Costs
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total Cost Per Kt REO - US$m Mine & Concentrator Costs per kt of RE product
45 │
(1) Molycorp Q3 2011 .Molycorp forecasts a 90% reduction in opex but does breakdown costs between separation and other operating costs (2) Based on a US$/A$ exchange rate of 1.07 and a USD/ZAR rate of 7.8
Opex of Projects producing Separated REOs Zandkopsdrift’s concentrator and separation plant opex compares well with
Opex primarily driven by reagent and energy costs Molycorp plans to generate its own power and also regenerate reagents which it proposes will reduce its opex by c.90% The Zandkopsdrift PEA assumes that HCL for the Saldanha separation plant will be purchased at market rates and that a sulphuric acid plant will be built at the mine site which will also provide power to operate the mine and concentrator Frontier will continue to further optimise the Zandkopsdrift Project opex
5 10 15 20 25 30 Molycorp (1) Lynas (2) Frontier (2) Arufura (2) Molycorp Q3 2011 (1) US$ per Kg of Separated REO Separation cost per kg Mining, conc. & transport cost per kg
46│
5,083 8,833 910 3,154 462 118 288 34 154 814 150 4,370
4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Tonnes per Annum
*Big 5 – Neodymium,Praseodymium,Europium,Terbium and Dysprosium **Revenue contributions are calculated using FOB China prices from Metal Pages Feb 2012 No value is attributed by Frontier to the five heavy rare earths from Holmium to Lutetium
Assumes production of 20k tonnes separated REOs p.a. and elemental recovery in line with in situ Zandkopsdrift distribution Zandkopsdrift has an attractive distribution of both the high value light and heavy rare earth elements These “Big 5” elements represent 22% of illustrative production volumes but contribute c.67% of project revenue** Cerium and lanthanum would represent c.70% of the illustrative production volume but contribute only c.28% of potential project revenue**
10.5% 16.2% 7.1% 25.2% 1.5% 20.5% 1.4% 4.4% 10.0% 3.4% 0.0% 67.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%
Contribution to value
Rare Earth Oxide
REO price ($/kg)2 Lynas Molycorp Frontier R.E.R. Arafura Avalon Quest Mt Weld Mtn Pass Zandkopsdrift Bear Lodge Nolans Bore Nechalacho Strange Lake
LREO
Lanthanum $45 25.2% 34.0% 25.4% 27.1% 19.8% 17.1% 14.4% Cerium $40 45.2% 48.8% 44.2% 43.7% 47.6% 39.5% 30.0% Praseodymium $170 4.9% 4.2% 4.5% 5.1% 5.8% 4.9% 3.3% Neodymium $175 17.1% 11.7% 15.8% 18.0% 21.2% 19.2% 12.2% Samarium $70 2.4% 0.8% 2.3% 2.7% 2.4% 3.8% 2.2%
HREO
Europium $3800 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Gadolinium $103 1.5% 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.0% 3.1% 2.2% Terbium $2820 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% Dysprosium $1420 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 1.8% 3.3% Holmium1 $0 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% Erbium1 $0 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 2.2% Thulium1 $0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Ytterbium1 $0 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 2.2% Lutetium1 $0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Yttrium $91 2.0% 0.0% 4.1% 1.0% 1.3% 7.8% 25.6% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total – HREO 5.1% 0.5% 7.8% 3.4% 3.1% 15.5% 37.8% Total – ‘Big 5’ 23.3% 16.1% 21.8% 24.1% 27.9% 26.8% 20.0%
47 │
1. No value attributed by Frontier to Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Ytterbium and Lutetium as these elements have small markets, are typically produced to special order and do not have regularly published prices. 2. REO prices from Metal Pages 13 February 2012 3. Peer group includes selected advanced rare earth projects with >200k TREO calculated on a code-compliant basis
48 │
7.98% TREO over 16 meters with 17.98% TREO over 1 meter
49 │
50 │
14,200 meters of additional drilling completed and will be incorporated into a revised resource estimate for PFS and expected to move resource to Measured and Indicated categories
51 │
52 │
Samsung Group is a multinational conglomerate whose subsidiaries include Samsung Electronics (the world’s largest information technology company by revenue and the world’s largest manufacturer of smartphones ahead of Apple), Samsung Heavy Industries (one of the world’s largest shipbuilders) and Samsung Life Insurance (the world’s 14th largest insurance company). The Samsung Group’s interests span electronics to financial services, from chemicals and heavy industries to trade and services. In 2010 the company had turnover of over $134 billion and profit before tax of $17 billion. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering operates as a shipbuilder and offshore contractor that builds vessels (i.e. tankers, passenger ferries, ro-ro carriers) offshore platforms, floating oil production units, submarines, and destroyers and is ranked as the second largest shipbuilder in the world. In 2010 the Company had turnover of over $11 billion and net income
GS Group is a Korean holding company focusing on oil refining and retail. Its main asset is a 50% interest in GS Caltex, Korea’s second largest refiner, and which is a joint venture with Chevron Corporation. GS Group’s business activities consist of petroleum refining and marketing, the production of petro-chemicals and the blending of lubricant oils. In 2010 the CS Group reported revenues of over US$36 billion and an operating profit of approximately $1 billion. AJU Group is a privately owned group with operations spanning energy, resources, construction materials, finance, tourism and leisure and real estate development. In 2010 the company reported assets of $4.1 billion, sales of approximately $800 million and operating profits of $33 million.
.
(Ireland) Independent consulting geologist with over 40 years experience as an exploration manager, geologist, consultant and senior lecturer. Former President of the Irish Association for Economic Geology and member of the Consultative Committee of the Irish Geological Survey.
(Canada) Former VP Corporate Development and Company Secretary of Katanga Mining Limited. Managing Director
Resources Corporation and Non-executive Director of Compass Asset Management.
(South Africa) Executive Director of Old Mutual South Africa, the largest integrated financial services company in South Africa. Chairman of the Old Mutual Foundation, founding Chairman of Foodbank South Africa and Non-executive Director of Capespan (Pty) Ltd.
53 │