Developing Africa: Toward Customer Oriented Urban Transport Policy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Developing Africa: Toward Customer Oriented Urban Transport Policy

Wendell Cox, Demographia CODATU XV Addis Abeba – 23 October 2012

THE SUBJECT

• POLICY, NOT PROJECTS,

MODES OR REGULATION

• OBJECTIVES

NOT MEANS

THE OBJECTIVE

• ERADICATING POVERTY
• REQUIRES MAXIMIZING

ACCESS/MOBILITY

MORE CRITICAL IN DEVELOPING WORLD

• MASS TRANSIT:

PRINCIPAL MOBILITY

• MORE DEVELOPED

WEST: AUTO

Democratization of Prosperity

ASSOCIATION BETWEEN MOBILITY & AFFLUENCE

Chicago

Reduced Minority Unemployment With Cars

• U. of California

PRUD’HOMME Mobility Improves Productivity

• U. Of Paris

HARTGEN-FIELDS Mobility Improves Productivity

“Time is Money”

• Urban access can be measured from the urban

area level to between small zones within the urban area. Urban access may be defined as follows:

• Urban access is the percentage of metropolitan

area employment that can be reached (door-to- door) by the urban transport system in a specified period of time (such as 30 minutes).

The Subject: Maximizing Urban Access

650 BC TO 2000

7

Dhaka

Economics: A History of Poverty

CANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTED

$0 $5 000 $10 000 $15 000 $20 000 $25 000 $30 000 $35 000 $40 000 $45 000

1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

GDP/Capita: Richest Nation: 2000$

Walking Mass Transit

Highest National GDPs: 1500-2000

650 BC TO PRESENT Auto PRINCIPAL MODE  Figure 8 From Maddison (OECD)

Eradicating poverty is the greatest global challenge facing the world today and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development.

Rio +20 Declaration

ERADICATING POVERTY: INDISPENSABLE REQUIREMENT

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 650BC 400BC 200BC 100AD 500 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Population (Millions) Year: (Irregular Scale)

World’s Largest Cities (Urban Areas)

650 BC TO 2000 Figure 10 From Chandler

–The raison d’être of large cities is the increasing return to scale inherent to large labor markets. The cities’ economic efficiency requires, therefore, avoiding any spatial fragmentation of labor markets.

Why Cities Grow (Their Purpose)

ALAIN BERTUAD, FORMER WORLD BANK PLANNER

As Cities Grow They Become Less Dense

ADDIS ABEBA 1972-2010

3 000 6 000 9 000 12 000 15 000

Canada Western Europe Japan China Developing Africa India More Developed World Less Developed World

Average Population per Square Kilometer

Calculated from data in Demographia World Urban Areas

Average Population Densities: 2012

URBAN AREAS OVER 2.5 MILLION: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Figure 16

Coming to Terms with Global Urban Expansion

• . The cities of developing Africa may have long

since become too spatially large for walking to suffice as a principal mode of access without hobbling economic growth and ingraining high levels of poverty.

African Cities are Too Large for Walking

ALREADY TOO SPATIALLY LARGE

Autos in All Western Europe & North America

MAJORITY OF MOTORIZED TRAVEL IS AUTO IN ALL CITIES

Example PORTLAND Transit +Cycle+Walk Market Share Down 9% 1980-2011

CAR & 2-WHEELER Provides access to within walking distance

• f all points in the

urban area

STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF MASS TRANSIT For most trips mass transit is not available or feasible

YOU CANNOT EXPECT PEOPLE TO MAKE IRRATIONAL CHOICES

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Washington Tampa-St. Petersburg

• St. Louis

Seattle San Francisco San Diego San Antonio Sacramento Riverside-San Bernardino Portland Pittsburgh Phoenix Philadelphia Orlando New York Minneapolis-St. Paul Miami Los Angeles Kansas City Houston Detroit Denver Dallas-Fort Worth Cleveland Cincinnati Chicago Boston Baltimore Atlanta Accessible by Transit Not Accessible by Transit

Capability of Transit: 45 Minute Job Access

USA METROPOLITAN AREAS OVER 2,000,000: 2008 Average Transit Job Access: 5.6% (NYC: 9.8%)

16% 84% 59% 41%

Jobs Accessible Not Accessible Jobs Accessible Not Accessible

Auto Transit

Paris Suburbs: Cars Provide Quicker Travel

FROM MAJOR SUBURBAN RAIL STATIONS: 1 HR TO JOBS Suburbs 83% of Population

Reforming the Informal Sector

TRANSANTIAGO EXAMPLE

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Denver Vancouver New York Toronto Paris Tokyo Vienna Zurich Singapore Dakar Hong Kong Manila Average Vehicle Kilometers per Urban Square Kilometer

Mass Transit Service Densities

MILLENNIUM CITIES DATABASE: 1995 Figure 28 Calculated from data in Millennium Cities Database (UITP)

29

World’s Most Dense Service

MANILA: PRINCIPALLY JEEPNEYS DAKAR High Density Service Profile

2-Wheelers & Personal Mobility

HO CHI MINH CITY

• ...the motorcycle offers many of the

conveniences of a private automobile, such as

• n-demand, door-to-door service, and the

ability to make intermediate stops and carry packages and extra passengers. Many Vietnamese have more than one job and children to drop off and pick up at school, and thus value the flexibility of a motorcycle.

Dapice, Gomez-Ibanez, & Thanh

ON HO CHI MINH CITY & MOTORCYCLES

Suzhou

• Employment (Enterprise) access: The employee access

indicator would estimate the number of jobs in an urban area that can be reached by workers from specific zones and overall within a fixed period (such as 30 minutes).

• Employee (Worker) access: The work force access indicator

would estimate the number of potential employees in an urban area that could reach employment locations in specific zones and overall within a fixed period (such as 30 minutes).

• Cost per reduced delay hour

(Texas Governor’s Business Council)

Policies for Urban Access

BASED UPON PRUD’HOMME/LEE & OTHERS

FOCUSING ON OBJECTIVES NOT MEANS