Demographi phic Turni ning ng P Points Populat ation P - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Demographi phic Turni ning ng P Points Populat ation P Projections f for the U United S States: 2 2020 020 t to 2 2060 060 Jonathan Vespa Lauren Medina David Armstrong * US Census Bureau 1 Population growth US Population:
Populat ation P Projections f for the U United S States: 2 2020 020 t to 2 2060 060
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Jonathan Vespa Lauren Medina David Armstrong * US Census Bureau
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» Projected growth of 78 million people between 2017 and 2060 » 25% growth rate
100 200 300 400
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
US Population: Projections 2020-2060
(in millions)
3
» Despite continued population growth, the growth rate is projected to slow
5 10 15 20
1950- 1960 1970- 1980 1990- 2000 2010- 2020 2030- 2040 2050- 2060
Percentage growth in the US population
(percent increase compared to the prior decade)
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By 2035, we project that older adults will outnumber children for the first time in US history
5 10 15
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
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5 10 15
» By 2030, every baby boomer will be over 65 » Number of 65+ will grow from 49 to 95 million between today and 2060 1960 2020
Population in millions Population in millions
10 5 10 5
Men Women
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» Number of 65+ will grow from 49 to 95 million between today and 2060 65+ grow by 92% 85+ grow by 198% 100+ grow by 618%
5 10 15
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
5 10 15
Population in millions Population in millions
10 5 10 5
1960 2060
Men Women
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More retirees than workers » Old age dependency ratios projected to double by 2060 21 in 2010 41 in 2060 » Working age population will remain relatively constant while the old age population grows More older adults than kids » Older adults are projected to
» Between today and 2060: <18 population grow by 8% 65+ population grow by 92%
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Migration becomes the driver of population change The cause? A rising number of deaths: 2020 2060 Births 4.1 4.4 million Deaths 2.8 3.9 million
0.5 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 2060 2050 2040 2030 2020 2017
Projected population change (in millions)
Natural increase Net international migration
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In coming decades, we project that racial and ethnic diversity will continue growing
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Measurement » People who select one and
» People who select one race or
combination with others”) Need » Why project race at all? » Demographic experiences like fertility and mortality differ across groups Change » Self-identification and self-reporting of race change over time
.5 2 7 14 18 79 1 2 11 19 28 74 2016 2060
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Projected race alone or in combination
(percent of the population)
The cause? » Largely driven by a rising number of deaths to an aging white population
Hawaiian or Pacific Islander American Indian Asian Black Hispanic White
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Projected births and deaths
(White population)
The cause? » Largely driven by a rising number of deaths to an aging white population
2017 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2.8 million 2.2 million 3.0 million 2.7 million
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Immigration » Immigration projected to become the primary driver of population growth starting in 2030 » Due to population aging and a rising number of deaths Diversity » White population projected to shrink » Due to demographic momentum of younger, more racially diverse cohorts Aging » More older adults than kids by 2035 » More young children than elderly by 2060