Population Trends in North Carolina & Implications for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Population Trends in North Carolina & Implications for Transportation

NC Department of Transportation July 12, 2019

Mike Cline, PhD State Demographer Office of State Budget & Management, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section

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Population Growth

Population Estimate Change, 2010-2018 Geographic Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent

United States 308,758,105 327,167,434 18,409,329 6.0 California 37,254,523 39,557,045 2,302,522 6.2 Texas 25,146,114 28,701,845 3,555,731 14.1 Florida 18,804,580 21,299,325 2,494,745 13.3 New York 19,378,124 19,542,209 164,085 0.8 Pennsylvania 12,702,873 12,807,060 104,187 0.8 Illinois 12,831,572 12,741,080

• 90,492
• 0.7

Ohio 11,536,757 11,689,442 152,685 1.3 Georgia 9,688,709 10,519,475 830,766 8.6 North Carolina 9,535,736 10,383,620 847,884 8.9 Michigan 9,884,117 9,995,915 111,798 1.1

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

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North Carolina Population vs. Other States 9th Largest State at 10.4 Million

4th Largest Population Gain (848,000 people), April 2010 to July 2018

4 Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses; OSBM Population Projections, 2018 Vintage.

5.1 5.9 6.6 8.0 9.5 10.6 11.8 12.8 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2038

North Carolina Population 1970 – 2010 and Projected Through 2038

Millions of People

North Carolina Population Change – Historic and Projected

In-Migration Now Major Component of Population Growth

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Components of Population Change in North Carolina by Period, 1950 - 2018

76% 87% 53% 72% 24% 13% 47% 28%

VIRGINIA TENNESSEE SOUTH CAROLINA GEORGIA NORTH CAROLINA

Domestic International

Source: US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

387,595 359,822 290,164 200,978

Net Migration

More Migration to North Carolina vs Neighbors in Recent Years

Net Domestic and International Migration, April 2010 to July 2018

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560,003

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Urbanization

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Population Change in North Carolina by Urban/Rural Status, 2000-2010

22% 32% 12% 34% 53% 41% 3% 2% Charlotte/Raleigh UA All Other UA* Urban Clusters* Rural Population Population Change

Over Half the Population and Almost All Population Growth in Major Urban Areas

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census *Urbanized Areas (UA) as defined in 2010. For this graph, the newly defined urbanized areas of New Bern and North Myrtle Beach- Socastee were included in the Urban Cluster totals. Urbanized Areas are statistical areas of 50,000 or more people while Urban Clusters include at least 2,500 but no more than 49,999 people. These areas do not follow legal (i.e. municipal) boundaries. The rural growth proportion may be slightly larger as this does not account for rural areas in 2000 that became urban in 2010.

• - Areas of 50,000 or More --

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Population Change by County - April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2017 Population Growth in NC Since 2010 Has Been Robust, But Uneven

NCDOT DIVISIONS IN RED

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Projected Population Change, July 1, 2019 – July 1, 2038 Projected Growth in Majority of NC Counties

NCDOT DIVISIONS IN RED

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NCDOT Division Growth as a Percent of State Growth

26.4% 25.1% 9.0% 8.3% 5.6% 5.2% 4.4% 4.2% 3.8% 3.3% 1.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 10 - Charlotte 5 - Raleigh-Durham 3 - Wilmington 7 - Greensboro 12 - Gastonia 9 - Winston-Salem 4 - Wilson 8 - Carthage 13 - Asheville 14 - Sylva 11 - Wilkesboro 2 - Greenville 6 - Fayetteville 1 - Edenton

Divisions 5 and 10 Will Account for 51.5% of All Growth, 2019 – 2038

Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, Population Projections, Vintage 2018.

Projected 2.3 Million People Added to North Carolina

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Population Aging

Projected Percent Population Change by Age Group, 2019-2038

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18.5% 11.3% 8.5% 20.1% 7.7% 55.3% 21.7% <5 5-17 18-24 25-54 55-64 65+ Total

Population 65 and Over is Projected to Grow More Than 2 1/2 Times Faster Than Total Population in the Next 19 years

Source: OSBM, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section, Population Projections, Vintage 2018.

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Population in North Carolina by Age, 2019 and 2038

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 <5 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ 2019 2038

Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget & Management, Population Projections, Vintage 2018.

Median Age: 2019: 39 2038: 41

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Race/Ethnic Diversification

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North Carolina’s Future Growth Is More Diverse

Projected Population Change from 2019 to 2038 by Race/Ethnic Group

Non-Hispanic Non-White includes: Black, Asian, American Indian, and those identifying as Two/ More Races

Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, Population Projections, Vintage 2018.

851,340 802,835 624,449

NonHispanic White NonHispanic NonWhite Hispanic

Projected 2.3 Million Total Growth 27% of Growth 35% of Growth 37% of Growth

• Am. Indian

2% Asian 3% Black 22% Two or More 2% White 71%

Population by Hispanic Origin & Race

2017 2038

58% 29% 14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

NH White NH Non- White Hispanic 62% 27% 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

NH White NH Non- White Hispanic

Source: NC OSBM Population Estimates, Vintage 2017 and Population Projections, Vintage 2018.

10.3 Million 12.8 Million

17 NH = nonHispanic

• Am. Indian

2% Asian 4% Black 22% Two or More 4% White 68%

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Median Household Incomes by Race/Ethnicity

All Households, $46,868 NH Asian, $68,933 NH White, $53,157 Hispanic, $34,708 NH Black, $32,807

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Black and Hispanic Incomes are 60-65% of NH White Households

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011-2015

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Implications for Transportation

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Demographic Challenges for Transportation

• Population growth
• More drivers
• More VMT
• More demand on all modes of transportation
• Urbanization
• Increased congestion
• Increased demand for alternative modes of transportation
• Need to maintain transportation system in rural areas

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Demographic Challenges (Continued)

• Aging & race/ethnic change
• Attenuate rate of growth in drivers & VMT
• Increase demand for alternative transportation modes
• Elderly giving up driving will still need transportation
• Retired drivers increase road use in non-peak commute hours
• Proportionally fewer drivers in “risky” ages suggest overall

decline in crash rates

• More elderly drivers suggest increase in elderly involved in

fatalities (due to frailty of people involved in crashes not severity of crash)

Thank You!

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Michael (Mike) E. Cline State Demographer Demographic & Economic Analysis Section North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management Michael.Cline@osbm.nc.gov 919-807-4756 For Municipal & County Population Estimates and County Population Projections, See: https://www.osbm.nc.gov/facts-figures/demographics Make NC Count! https://census.nc.gov/