Defiance City School Five-Year Financial Forecast May 2020 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Defiance City School Five-Year Financial Forecast May 2020 REVENUES Taxes State Aid Other Property Class I/Class II Unrestricted Other Revenue Public Utility PP Restricted Other Sources Income Tax 2020 Property Tax Income Tax 7%
Property Class I/Class II Public Utility PP Income Tax Property Tax Allocation
Unrestricted Restricted
Other Revenue Other Sources
Real Estate 19% PUPP 3% Income Tax 7% Unres Aid 57% Res Aid 2% Prop Tax Alloc 3% All Other Rev 9%
2020
Agricultural 3.76% Residential 73.71%
➢ Residential Real Estate is 73.71% of Total Valuation. ➢ Agricultural Real Estate is 3.76% of Total Valuation. ➢ CLASS I Real Estate is 77.47% of Total Valuation. ➢ 2014 –Triennial Update ➢ Ag: $2,823,930 (37.3% CAUV ) ➢ Res:$403,760 (.2%) ➢ 2020–Triennial Update ➢ Ag: -$500,000 (-5%) ➢ Res:$1,000,000 (.5%) ➢ 2017 – Reappraisal ➢ Ag: $576,120 (-5.4%) ➢ Res:$11,920,430 (6.6%) ➢ 2023 - Reappraisal ➢ Ag: -$250,000 (2.6%) ➢ Res: $5,000,000 (2.5%)
NOTE: If recession occurs in future years, property taxes could be affected by as much as a 3-10% decrease in valuation (that is not modeled in this forecast). Class I changes when Update or Reappraisal occurs. 1.01
➢ Real Estate is 15.78% of total Valuation. ➢ 2014 –Triennial Update ➢ -$158,560 ➢ 2014 New Construction ➢ $620,100 ➢ 2017 – Reappraisal ➢ $1,987,210 ➢ 2014 New Construction ➢ $470,700 ➢ 2020–Triennial Update ➢ $50,000 ➢ 2014 New Construction ➢ $250,000 ➢ 2023 - Reappraisal ➢ $500,000 ➢ 2014 New Construction ➢ $700,000
What are the District collection rates? Class I rates are at the 20-mill floor.
Effective Class I Class II Class at TY Millage: Fixed Rate Fixed Rate Floor? Fixed Sum
2019
20.05 23.04 6.17
2020
20.01 23.02 6.18
2021
20.02 23.00 6.22
2022
20.00 22.98 Floor 0.00
2023
20.00 22.76 Floor 0.00
1.01
FY 2020 – Decrease of $50,360 from October projections for line 1.01 RE and $11,416 for line 1.02 PUPP . Why? ➢ Delinquencies collected decrease $50,000(August 2020 2nd half collection) ➢ Spring 1st Half collections are recorded as actual
1.01
FY 2021 Decrease of $379,859 from October projections for line 1.01 RE and $17,672 for line 1.02 PUPP . Why? ➢ Reduction in Tax Year 2020 (Payable 2021) Valuation ➢ 2021 collection rate reduced from 98% TO 95% (last recession was between 3-10% - this forecast contains 3% reduction in collection rates) ➢ Delinquencies collected decrease (May 2021/August 2021) FY 2022 Decrease of $170,794 from October projections for line 1.01 RE and $19,797 for line 1.02 PUPP . Why? ➢ Reduction in Tax Year 2021 (Payable 2022) Valuation ➢ Increases Delinquencies collects to catch up for previous years decrease
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 PUPP $632,010 $692,145 $701,019 $736,440 $747,114 $779,794 $810,564 $826,437 $841,153 $870,614 Class II $1,144,418 $1,094,262 $1,093,849 $1,082,724 $1,119,844 $1,121,875 $1,055,811 $1,139,197 $1,146,532 $1,163,182 Class I $4,157,985 $4,196,006 $4,119,910 $4,368,435 $4,372,719 $4,408,582 $4,253,295 $4,434,391 $4,439,631 $4,527,280
$- $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 $7,000,000 Collection Year Revenue Estimates by Class Based on Modeled Collection Rate
Financial Impact Summary
Income Tax Income taxes are broken into 4 parts: ➢ Withholding (appx $1,450,000/FY) ➢ Estimated payments (appx $88,000/FY) ➢ Payments with Returns (appx $543,000/FY) ➢ Refunds (appx $167,000/FY) Collected 4 times a year Forecast FY2021-2024: ➢ Expected withholding (74% of total collections) to decrease an estimated 9.2% in July 2020 (based on OBM projections). October 2020 also decreases to 2%. ➢ FY22-24 rates begin to move back to normal. Historically (2015-2019): ➢ Withholding 3.09% ➢ Estimated payments 6.84% ➢ Payments with Returns -1.35% ➢ Refunds 5.48% Total collections FY20: $1,977,510
1.03
$0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Income Tax Actual and Projected
Adjustment for Current Cash Flow Trend: 16,402
FY 2019 Actual> 983,543
Total 983,543 938,415 930,858 919,247 805,924 707,622 Dollar Change over Prior year (11,051) (45,128) (7,557) (11,611) (113,323) (98,302) Percentage Change over Prior Year
Homestead and Rollback remain constant except for TPP Phase out. FY 2020 was the last phase out year for TPP State reimbursement for Fixed Rate levies. FY 2022 is the last phase out year for TPP State reimbursement for Fixed Sum (Emergency) Levies. FY23 TPP state Hold Harmless Clause will be finished.
1.05
Percentage of Total Revenue: 3.3% Actual Projected 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Projections are not Based Upon Previous Fiscal Year Rollback and Homestead 10% Rollback Total Dollars 536,428 534,392 538,365 539,939 541,008 546,671 2.5% Residential Rollback Total Dollars 97,056 95,916 96,630 96,912 97,104 98,120 Homestead Total Dollars 286,792 272,435 274,460 275,262 275,808 278,695 Adjustments (3,075)
Renewal Levy Reservation
Total Rollback and Homestead 917,200 902,743 909,455 912,113 805,924 707,622 TPP Fixed-Rate Direct Reimbursement Revenue 161,440 << Annual Phase-Out of 5/8 Mill
FY17 TPP Reimb:
Current Exp Fixed-Rate TPP Reimb
42,806 28,538 14,269
49,941 35,672 21,403 7,134
(21,403) (35,672) (49,941) (64,210) (71,344)
49,941 35,672 21,403 7,134
Enrollment: ➢ Actual students in chairs being educated at DCS: 2402 ➢ Current ADM Formula Funding Enrollment: ➢ Total ADM Formula: ➢ 2649.13 Starting ADM ➢ +222.19 OE In ➢ -35.53 Community School ➢ -347 OE Out ➢ -4.93 Autism Scholarship ➢ -10.93 JP Scholarship ➢ -72.17 JVS ➢ TOTAL: 2400.76
2,380.00 2,385.00 2,390.00 2,395.00 2,400.00 2,405.00 2,410.00 2,415.00 2,420.00 2,425.00 2,430.00 2,435.00
201620172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
District Educated ADM
*2017/2018 spike due to ECOT closing and online students returning to DCS then leaving in 2018 and2019.
Unrestricted Aide: Calculated using Enrollment, Base Aide from designated year, Special Education Transportation (t-reports), Preschool Funding ($4000/Special Needs Student), Student Wellness (moved to separate fund) and Casino Funding. 1.035/1.04/1.045
Unrestricted and Restricted Revenue 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
District Educated ADM
2,401 2,401 2,401 2,400 2,400 2,404
Base Aid
$16,761,840 $16,744,199 $16,744,199 $16,744,199 $16,744,199 $16,744,199
Spec Ed. Transp.
$99,969 $124,920 $124,920 $124,920 $124,920 $124,920
Pre-School
$420,899 $438,786 $406,786 $406,786 $406,786 $406,786
Casino Revenue
$136,257 $124,839 $124,833 $124,800 $124,819 $124,994
HB 166 Additional Revenue Student Wellness
$541,213 $781,665 $0 $0 $0
upplemental Student Well.
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Growing District Aid
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Posting & CFO Adjustments
$56,357
Total Revenue
$16,953,508 $16,577,051 $15,036,163 $15,832,675 $15,832,694 $15,832,869
YOY Change
$33,781
$796,512 $19 $175
YOY % Change
0.2%
5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Base Aide: FY2020 - $359,293 Reduction in state aid by Ohio Governor. FY2021 – Estimated 10% Reduction in Base State Aid FY2022 – Estimated 6.4% Reduction in Base State Aide (not an addition to previous years cuts). FY2023-25 Flatlined State Aide (FY2022). Special Education: FY2020-2024 - Supplemental for Special Needs Bus riders based on T-report submission. Casino Funding: FY21 Based on Enrollment and casino revenue, 40% Reduction for FY 21 for closure (reduction w/state aid adjustment). Preschool: FY2021-2024 - $4000/special needs student enrolled in PS – decrease of $32,000 for reduction of class.
➢ Tuition: ➢ Open Enrollment ➢ Excess Costs ➢ Student Tuition ➢ Misc. Payments
(i.e. Summer School)
➢ Fee Based: ➢ 1700 Class Materials ➢ 1810 Rentals ➢ 1820 Donations ➢ 1830/40 Services ➢ 1860/1890 Fines/Other Misc. ➢ Other Sources ➢ Transfers/In/Out
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Fee Based Revenue
1700s 1810 1820 1830s & 1840s 1860 & 1890 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Tuition Related Revenue
1223 - SF14H/Excess Cost Revenue 1227 - Open Enrollment
1.06
Salaries Benefits
Supplies Capital Outlay Other Objects Tuition Utilities Other
Salaries 53% Benefits 22% Purch Serv 19% Supp & Mat 3% Capital Outlay 1% Other Exp 2%
➢ FY2020 (50% of total expenses) ➢ Student Wellness funds were used to pay for $175,100 of Salaries of Employees previously Paid from General Fund reducing this expense. ➢ Reduced $125,000 expenses from March 2020-June 2020 (Subs/OT) ➢ Even with reductions, the line item increased from 2.26% from 2019. ➢ FY2021 ➢ One-time CARES (ESSERS) Federal funding of $399,275 used to reduce expense of Salaries of Employees previously Paid from General Fund reducing this expense. ➢ Student Wellness funds were used to pay for $175,100 of Salaries of Employees previously Paid from General Fund reducing this expense. ➢ Returned $125,000 expenses from March 2020-June 2020 (Subs/OT) that was removed in FY2020 ➢ Reduced 3 staff through Attrition. ➢ Even with reductions, the line item increased .78% from 2020.
3.01
➢ FY2022 ➢ Student Wellness funds used to pay for $175,100 of Salaries of Employees previously Paid from Grant returned to General Fund. ➢ One-time CARES (ESSERS) Federal funding of $399,275 used to reduce expense of Salaries of Employees previously Paid from Grant returned to General Fund. ➢ The line item increased 6.84% from 2021 because of adding back in the above expenses. ➢ FY2023/2024 ➢ 3.72% forecast in 2023 and 3.80% forecast in 2024 based on assumptions. ➢ Assumptions: ➢ Forecast includes no NEW staffing from FY2021-FY2024. ➢ Forecast includes negotiated steps/increases for both unions, administrators, supplementals and non-union staff.
3.01
➢ 20.20% of total expenses ➢ Healthcare: ➢ Enrollment based on Current Staff Enrolled in Plan Census Information Updated 5/2020. ➢ $78,000 reduction for HDHP in FY21 ➢ Access Plus increases FY21-24: ➢ 6% Medical ➢ 4% Dental ➢ 3% Vision ➢ Other Expenses: ➢ STRS 14% Board Share ➢ WC/Medicare Board Share ➢ Line Item Increases: ➢ FY21 2.18% ➢ FY22 6.28% (salary expenses went up due to one-time grant funding) ➢ FY23 4.9% ➢ FY 24 4.8%
3.02
$0 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 $7,000,000 $8,000,000
Employees' Benefits/Insurance Benefits Actual and Projected
➢ Salary and Benefits account for over 70% of district Operating Expenses making it the most expensive item for Per Pupil Expenditures.
3.02 ➢ 2019 State Report card ➢ District is #17 of 272 similar districts for spending on the Classroom ➢ Per Pupil Expenditure FY19: $9,600 of which $6,984 spent
➢ Open Enrollment: ➢ FY20 $2,064,690 ➢ FY21-24 Between 1%-3% increases forecast ➢ Health Services: ➢ ESC FY20: $1,185,764 ($229,396 pd thru student wellness) ➢ loss of Preschool revenue $5168 ➢ ESC FY21: $1,167,342 ➢ reduced one preschool teacher 2021 (one classroom) - $58,146 Funding reduced $32,000 ➢ ESC FY22-24 5% increases forecast ➢ Excess Costs: ➢ FY20 $183,984 out (revenue $189,764 in) ➢ FY21-24 2% increases forecast ➢ Scholarships: ➢ FY20 $289,198 ➢ FY21-24 5% increases forecast
1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Tuition Expenses
471-Other District Tuition 479 CCP (prev included in 479 below) 474-Excess Cost Tuition 475-SF14H 413 - Health Services (ESC) *formerly 474 477-Open Enrollment
3.03
➢ Telephone: ➢ FY20 $195,102 (-5%) ➢ Use decreased (Long Distance) ➢ FY21-24 Between 5%-6% increases forecast ➢ Electric: ➢ FY20: $450,000 ➢ Joined OSC (savings start in May 2020) ➢ Use decreased as buildings were closed (-9.9%) ➢ FY21-24 2% increases forecast ➢ Water/Sewer: ➢ FY20 $85,000 (-12%) ➢ Use decreased as buildings were closed ➢ FY21-24 2-5% increases forecast ➢ Gas: ➢ FY20 $80,000 (-20.9%) ➢ Use decreased as buildings were closed ➢ FY21-24 3% increases forecast
200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Utility Expenses
416-Data Processing 422-Trash 441-Telephone 447-Connectivity 451-Electric 452-Water/Sewer 453-Gas Other Utilities
3.03
Highlights: ➢ Professional Services: ➢ Reduced in 2020 to $100,000 (doing more work internally) ➢ PD/Travel : ➢ FY21 Reduced by $30k ➢ Legal Fees: ➢ FY20 Reduced to $45,000 (40.8%) ➢ FY21-24 2% increase forecast
Description 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 410/411/412/415/419-Profession 293,007 155,039 100,000 102,000 104,040 106,121 108,243 % Change from prior year 17.9%
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 423/424/425/426/429-Property S 416,452 381,662 391,401 401,186 411,216 421,496 432,033 % Change from prior year 6.7%
2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 430s-Travel & Mtg Exp 65,878 61,047 62,268 33,513 64,783 66,079 67,401 % Change from prior year
2.0%
93.3% 2.0% 2.0% 443/446/444/449 Postage/Mail/A 23,722 16,361 10,864 11,516 12,207 12,939 13,716 % Change from prior year
6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 460s-Contracted Services 14,347 14,208 11,806 12,160 12,525 12,901 13,288 % Change from prior year 20.3%
3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 480s-Pupil Transportation % Change from prior year 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 490s-Other Misc Purch Serv 19,471 21,609 14,790 15,234 15,691 16,161 16,646 % Change from prior year 13.7% 11.0%
3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 418 Legal Fees 69,416 76,021 45,000 45,900 46,818 47,754 48,709 % Change from prior year 60.1% 9.5%
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Total Purchased Services 6,031,846 5,986,564 5,667,213 5,769,714 6,209,264 6,382,686 6,571,218 Total 902,292 725,948 636,129 621,509 667,280 683,452 700,036 Total for Detailed Note 3
45,771 16,172 16,585
30 - Purchased Services 3.030 - Purchased Services 3.030 - Purchased Services 3.030 - Purcha
3.03
General Instructional Supplies: ➢ FY2019 ➢ 21.4% Increase ➢ 009 expenses posted to GF when fee expenses exceeded payments ➢ FY2020 ➢ 33.5% decrease ➢ 009 expenses not posted here, but transferred shortage from GF ➢ Budget Reduction across general supplies of 10% ➢ Reduced supplies due to building closure March 2020 ➢ FY2021 ➢ 25% decrease (62,500) ➢ FY2022-2024 ➢ 3% inflation increase Textbooks $200,000 reduction: ➢ FY2018 ➢ $223,904 ➢ FY2019 ➢ $487,727 ➢ FY2020 ➢ $50,000 (carryover of previous years series) ➢ FY2021 ➢ No New Textbooks ➢ FY2022 ➢ $100,000 ➢ FY2023 ➢ $300,000 ➢ FY 2024 ➢ $200,000
3.04
Computer Leases: ➢ FY2020 ➢ 22.7% decrease ➢ ELEM/MS $102,775 Pmt 1 of 3 ➢ HS $90,108 PMT 3 OF 3 ➢ FY2021 ➢ 34% decrease ➢ ELEM/MS $102,775 Pmt 2 of 3 ➢ $90,108 Decrease from HS Payoff ➢ FY2022 ➢ 64% increase ➢ ELEM/MS $102,775 Pmt 3 of 3 ➢ Needed Upgrades for HS ➢ HS lease $90,500 Pmt 1 of 3 Bus Leases: ➢ FY2020 ➢ 22.6% decrease ➢ No busses ➢ FY2021 ➢ 33% decrease ➢ One bus ➢ First year paid by grant ➢ 3-year lease (usually 4) ➢ FY2022 ➢ 12.9% increase ➢ One bus ➢ FY 2023 ➢ 4.9% increase ➢ One lease drops off (-47,639) ➢ 2 buses ➢ FY 2024 ➢ 17.3% increase ➢ 2 buses
*Next van purchase scheduled for FY2022 3.05
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Other Expenses by Type
840-842-Dues/Fees/Shipping 843-audit/finance fees 844-County BOE 845-847-County Auditor/Treasurer Fees 848-849-Bank Charges/Other Fees 851-859-Insurance 860-870-Judgements/Sales Tax 880-899-Memorials
County Auditor/Treasurer Fees for Tax Collection ➢ FY2020 25% increase $175,684 Insurance ➢ FY2020 $46,137 increase 3% Dues and Fees ➢ FY2020 2% decrease $18,761 Forecast forward based on trend analysis 4.30
(11,197) (2,002,766) (2,987,658) (4,951,631) (6,802,324)
$29,916,671 $28,076,557 $29,277,893 $28,661,914 $28,026,954 $29,927,868 $30,079,323 $32,265,551 $33,613,545 $34,829,278
$0 $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 $30,000,000 $35,000,000 $40,000,000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenue vs. Expenditures
Revenue Renew/Replacement Levies New Levies Expenditures
Deficit Spending Every Year of Forecast:
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Deficit Balance LAST Year of Forecast (including levy renewals):
15.010 - Unreserved Fund Balance June 30
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 12,019,305 10,016,540 7,028,882 2,890,687 (2,284,764)
6.010 – Excess (Under) of Revenue to Expenses in FY
➢ District will need to cut more expenses to cover deficit spending in order to eliminate deficit balance. ➢ Reduce Staff ➢ Reduce Benefits ➢ Reduce Purchase Service to only provide state mandated services ➢ Reduce Supplies to only fees collected and no new textbooks ➢ Eliminate capital expenses ➢ No more computer leases ➢ No more new busses ➢ Increase Revenue: ➢ Ask voters for a PI levy that will generate enough to cover Maintenance of Buildings, textbooks, buses and repairs to Elementary, HS and MS ➢ .5 mill levy for OSCC for all buildings does not cover all expenses and cannot be used for textbooks or buses. ➢ Ask voters for new money or increase Emergency levy ➢ 6 mills needed to eliminate current deficit balance in 2024 ➢ Levy passed in FY 2022 ➢ Move inside mills to Permanent Improvement Fund
For information regarding this presentation please contact: Cheryl Swisher, Defiance City School CFO/Treasurer at 419-782-9452