Deep Ocean J. Hansen & M. Sato, Paleoclimate Implications for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Paleo CO2 (Ward).

Nature has sequestered CO2 several times in the past 600 million years.

Paleo CO2 & O2

“Oxygen is the driver of evolution.”

Peter Ward

Temps over Last 65 Million Years .

• J. Hansen & M. Sato,

“Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change” Figure 1 in Climate Change, 2012 Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects,

• eds. Berger, Mesinger

& Sijacki Springer-Verlag, Vienna 2012

Deep Ocean Deep Ocean

12,000 Years of Temps .

Relative Temperatures (°C)

by “Continent”

• ver 2,000 Years

Phipps, Nature Geoscience, April 2013

5

UNCLASSIFI FIED

CO2 Sink %

James Hansen, 2013: Fig. 3 in “Doubling Down on Our Faustian Bargain”

from the last 20 million years, by van der Wal, cited in “Making Sense of Palaeoclimate Sensitivity,” Hansen et al., Nov. 12. Also, Snyder, Sept. 2016. fast feedback = +3°C at doubling (560 ppm) +1.5°C at 400 ppm fast + slow feedback = +5°C at 400 ppm Fast feedbacks include cloud cover, snow extent, sea ice, upper ocean heating, carbon emissions from permafrost & methane hydrates, and most aspects of dust & aerosol changes.

∆°C

ppm CO2

Heating by 3000 CE should fall on the dark blue curve.

Slow feedbacks include albedo changes from changes in vegetation and ice sheet extent, plus weathering, plate tectonics, and some aspects of the carbon cycle. 1.2°C warming is

• bserved at 400 ppm.

Nor does it include albedo effects of future shrinking snow & sea ice extent, time to heat the upper ocean, or positive feedbacks on permafrost & clouds. But it does not include 0.5°C warming hidden by sulfates. fast + slow feedback = +9°C at 560 ppm

Radiation Forcings IPCC AR5 . Figure TS.7: IPCC, AR5 (2013)

Sulfate Aerosol % .

James Hansen, Fig. 6a in Global Temperature Update Through 2012

The 1997-2017 rate of change is At that rate, “Both” will pass 2ºC above 1880 levels in 2059. “Land” in 2033. 2.2 for Sea, 2.3 for Both. 2.7ºC / 100 years for Land,

+1.2ºC in 100 years

• .8
• .6
• .4
• .2

.0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2 1880 1896 1912 1928 1944 1960 1976 1992 2008

∆°C

Temperatures, Global Surface

Sea Land Both

NASA, 5-year moving average

Temperature Changes

Earth’s Land Surface

1951-80 Baseline

5-Year Moving Average by Latitude - NASA GISS

* = only S Patagonia & S Chile, S 25% of NZ

Arctic Sea Ice Volume .

Mean by Month

PIOMAS

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013

Thousand Cubic Kilometers

Arctic Ocean Ice Volume

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

U of Washington, PIOMAS model, by Wipneus

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

km3 x 1,000

Arctic Sea Ice

Average Monthly Volume

April June July September June Trend, 79+ July Trend, 79+ Sept Trend, 79+ Apr Trend, 00+ June Trend, 00+ July Trend, 00+ Sept Trend, 00+

Snow Observations, 1965-2012 2013 State of the Climate, American Meteorological Organization

Annual Average Cloud Observations, 1982-2012 2013 State of the Climate, American Meteorological Organization 2014 State of the Climate revised the time trend to 0.

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Cloud Cover (%)

Global Monthly Cloud Cover

Low Middle High

International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project dashed lines by Gene Fry less cooling clouds more warming clouds less warming clouds

Clouds by Altitude

net warming effect. Magnitude?

Sea Levels over Last 24,000 Years

3 meters per century during Meltwater Pulse 1A (1 millennium) 1.5 meters per century from 15 to 8 millennia ago

10 millennia ago, Earth’s surface warmed at a rate of 0.03°C / century. Current warming is 50-150 times as fast, but only 1/3 as much ice is left.

Greenland & Antarctic Ice Andrew Shepherd et al., “A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance”, Science 38(6111):1183-1189. Nov. 30, 2012 Ice Sheet Contribution to Global Sea Level Rise .

• 1

1 3 5 7 9 11

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

millimeters

Combined Greenland Antarctica

Alaska Permafrost .

Projections for average annual ground temperature at 1 meter deep. Blue is permafrost. Red surface is above freezing. Draft National Climate Assessment, Figure 22.5, 2013

US Dought Projection .

Fraction of US Affected

• bserved

mean of 19 models

mid-range emissions Draft National Climate Assessment, Figure 2.21 - 2013

“Extreme” means individual model results

Future Rain in North America Global Climate Change in the United States, June 2009, NOAA et al. at 31

High Emissions Scenario The map does NOT include differences in evaporation.

Projected Palmer Drought Index

change from local baseline (1902-2010?)

Soil Moisture

Via NOAA: “Reds and oranges highlight lands around the Mediterranean that experienced significantly drier winters during 1971-2010 than the comparison period of 1902-2010.”

Winters are getting drier…

Permafrost Carbon

By 2100, permafrost may be adding more carbon to the air than humans, and cumulatively, will have added more than humans have added to date. By 2300, permafrost by itself may well double today’s CO2 levels in the air.

Human emissions are no longer the only game in town.

We’re heading for a repeat of 55 million years ago (+6°C), but today’s sun heats Earth 1.7°C more, and we’ve burned fossil fuels. Thus it may get even hotter. By 8-9°C? So, we must stop adding carbon to the air, soon, . start subtracting carbon from the air even faster than we are now adding it. AND

Corn, Wheat, Rice, Soy - US, China, India .

Major Crops: US, China & India Produce Half of World Total

Corn

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Million Metric Tons

US China India

Rice

40 80 120 160 200 240 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Million Metric Tons

US China India

Wheat

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Million Metric Tons

US China India

Soybeans

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Million Metric Tons

US China India

World Food Prices .

Over 2005-7, . world prices . rose 125% . for wheat, . 100% for corn, . 27% for rice. + . soybeans 83% . in just 1 year. . Look at 2008. . Over 2006-7, . food prices rose . 18% in China, . 13% in Indonesia . & Pakistan, . 10+% in India, . Russia & . Latin America. .

Over 2007-8, world food prices rose 20-150%. .

In the US, food prices rose too: whole wheat bread 12%, milk 29%, eggs 36%. Why?

Grain for ethanol,

High oil prices 2007

Rice Wheat Corn

UN: Food & Agriculture Organization

• more meat for China,

droughts in Australia, Ukraine, Russia , devalued $. mean more $ for fertilizer & pesticides, & especially to fuel pumps & tractors. 2009 2008 2010

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800

J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J

US $ / Tonne World Grain Prices

2011 2012 2013

Crop Response Graphs .

Crop Responses to Warming

.0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

°F (24-hour mean) Relative Yield / acre

Wheat C

• r

n Soy

Wichita Des Moines Bismarck Pine Bluff Mean June Temps, ‘81-’10

CO2 Fertilization of Crops .

1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560

parts per million Relative Yield

Corn

Soy Rice 26 studies, ‘72-’06,

• sum. by

Hatfield 2011 study CO2 levels = 330 (‘72) to 380 ppm (‘06).

Nitrogen & water not constraining.

based

• n

Hatfield 2011 today Kolkata Wheat

Yields rise with more CO2

Paleo-climate records show 6°C warming, long-term, for “2 x CO2” (560 ppm).

Crop Responses to +4°C, 2xCO2 (560 ppm)

.0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

°F (24-hour mean) Relative Yield

Wheat C

• r

n Soy

Mean June Temps

Nitrogen & water not constraining.

Wichita Des Moines Bismarck Pine Bluff Kolkata

Crop Responses to +6°C, 2 x CO2

.0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

°F (24-hour mean) Relative Yield

Wichita Des Moines Bismarck Pine Bluff Kolkata India Mean June Temps

Yields rise 17% for KS soy, but fall 15% for IA corn, 13% for AR rice, 4% for ND wheat,

• But water tables are falling now, fast.

& 47% for rice in Kolkata. It will get worse.

at 1st, but then nitrogen limits kick in.

Green Jobs .

• “Six months ago my biggest worry was

that an emissions deal would make American business less competitive compared to China.”

• “Now my concern is that every day that

we delay trying to find a price for carbon is a day that China uses to dominate the green economy.”

Senator Lindsay Graham Republican (South Carolina) January 29, 2010

Solutions are out there, ready for a carbon cap.

• In January 2007, 10 companies called for a carbon cap

& trade system to cut US CO2 emissions 60-80% by 2050.

General Electric

BP America Caterpillar Alcoa Duke Energy DuPont PNM Resources Florida P&L Pacific G&E Lehman Brothers

• In May 2007, 12 companies joined them:

General Motors Shell Johnson & Johnson AIG ConocoPhillips Pepsi John Deere Siemens Dow Chemical Alcan Boston Scientific Marsh Inc.

• More than 40 other big companies are supportive. Examples:

Boeing

Wal-Mart Staples National Grid Ford Whirlpool Exelon Texas Utilities (revamped)

Chevron

Chrysler Google American Electric Power Xerox IBM NRG Energy Bank of America

Amounts of Energy Available on Earth.

US Renewable Electricity in 2050 .

Renewable Electricity Futures Study Hand, M.M. et al., 2012

• Fig. ES-3,

Table 3-1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Scenario: 80% Renewable by 2050 Low Demand, Technology Improvement

7% > TWh than 2012

US Total % Cap TWh GW Wind 34 560 PV 8 290 CSP 11 130 Hydro 13 170 Geoth. 3 25 Biom. 12 98 Gas 3 250 Coal 8 40 Nuke 8 50 Store 130

25% > GW than 2012 70% export 41% export 32% import 41% import 33% import 30% export

• Central Solar

US Electricity Prices Lazard 2016

Wind Map American Wind Energy Association

Effects of a US Carbon Tax

Changes due to Carbon Tax

from REMI’s 2014 analysis, for the Citizens Climate Lobby

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

MA = Mass.

The tax modeled rises from $10 / metric ton of CO2 in 2016, by $10 / T annually, to $200 / T in 2035. Collect it only at wellheads, mine mouths & borders (for carbon imports). Taxpayers get 100% of it back each year (= $ / Household or = $ / person). US CO2 emissions fall from 5.1 GT per year in 2015 to 2.6 GT in 2035. GNP is 0.2-0.4% higher over 2017-35. Jobs rise > 1% by 2025 (versus the no carbon tax baseline). Only the West South Central states suffer. Job gains are biggest in Health Care, Finance & Insurance, Retail, and Real

• Estate. Only Manufacturing (Chemicals

& Oil) and Mining suffer. The tax saves 10,000 lives a year (mostly from air pollution) by 2021 and 14,000 / year by 2031. Electricity in 2035 is 6% (250 TWh / year) below the base case. Coal (1,500 TWh / year now) is phased

• ut, mostly by 2025. Wind use grows

750, nuclear 700, solar 200, and geothermal 100, but gas falls 500.

• Citizens Climate Lobby advocates a US carbon tax. On its Board

are George Shultz, Jim Hansen, Katherine Hayhoe, Bob Inglis et al. 300+ CCL chapters cover 430+ Congressional districts in 50 states. You are invited to join. Go to http://citizensclimatelobby.org.

Gross National Product

Gross Regional Products

Total Employment

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