Deep Ocean J. Hansen & M. Sato, Paleoclimate Implications for - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Paleo CO 2 & O 2 “ Oxygen is the driver of evolution. ” Peter Ward Nature has sequestered CO 2 several times in the past 600 million years. Paleo CO2 (Ward).

Deep Ocean J. Hansen & M. Sato, “Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change” Figure 1 Deep Ocean in Climate Change, 2012 Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects , eds. Berger, Mesinger & Sijacki Springer-Verlag, Vienna 2012 Temps over Last 65 Million Years .

12,000 Years of Temps .

Relative Temperatures (°C) by “ Continent ” over 2,000 Years Phipps, Nature Geoscience , April 2013

5 UNCLASSIFI FIED

James Hansen , 2013: Fig. 3 in “Doubling Down on Our Faustian Bargain” CO2 Sink %

from the last 20 fast + slow feedback million years, by van = +9°C at 560 ppm der Wal, cited in Heating by 3000 “Making Sense of Palaeoclimate CE should fall on Sensitivity,” Hansen the dark blue et al., Nov. 12. Also, fast + slow feedback Snyder, Sept. 2016. = +5°C at 400 ppm curve. 1.2°C warming is fast feedback = +3°C observed at 400 ppm. at doubling (560 ppm) ∆ °C But it does not include 0.5°C warming +1.5°C at 400 ppm hidden by sulfates. Nor does it include albedo effects of future shrinking snow & sea ice extent, time to heat the upper ocean, or positive feedbacks on permafrost & clouds. ppm CO 2 Fast feedbacks include cloud cover, snow extent, sea ice, upper ocean heating, carbon emissions from permafrost & methane hydrates, and most aspects of dust & aerosol changes. Slow feedbacks include albedo changes from changes in vegetation and ice sheet extent, plus weathering, plate tectonics, and some aspects of the carbon cycle.

Figure TS.7: IPCC, AR5 (2013) Radiation Forcings IPCC AR5 .

James Hansen, Fig. 6a in Global Temperature Update Through 2012 Sulfate Aerosol % .

Temperatures, Global Surface 1.2 1.0 Sea .8 +1.2ºC in 100 years Land .6 Both .4 ∆ °C .2 .0 -.2 -.4 -.6 NASA , 5-year moving average -.8 1880 1896 1912 1928 1944 1960 1976 1992 2008 The 1997-2017 rate of change is At that rate, “Both” 2.7 º C / 100 years for Land, will pass 2 º C above 1880 levels in 2059. 2.2 for Sea, “Land” in 2033. 2.3 for Both.

1951-80 Baseline Temperature Changes 5-Year Moving Average Earth ’ s Land Surface by Latitude - NASA GISS * = only S Patagonia & S Chile, S 25% of NZ

Arctic Ocean Ice Volume 35 Mean by Thousand Cubic Kilometers Month 30 Jan 25 Feb Mar Apr 20 May Jun 15 Jul Aug Sep 10 Oct Nov Dec 5 PIOMAS 0 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013 Arctic Sea Ice Volume .

35 Arctic Sea Ice Average Monthly Volume 30 April June July 25 September km 3 x 1,000 June Trend, 79+ July Trend, 79+ 20 Sept Trend, 79+ Apr Trend, 00+ June Trend, 00+ 15 July Trend, 00+ Sept Trend, 00+ 10 5 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 U of Washington, PIOMAS model, by Wipneus

Snow Observations, 1965-2012 2013 State of the Climate , American Meteorological Organization

Annual Average Cloud Observations, 1982-2012 2014 State of the Climate 2013 State of the Climate , American Meteorological Organization revised the time trend to 0.

Clouds by Altitude Global Monthly Cloud Cover Low less cooling clouds Cloud Cover (%) Middle less warming clouds High more warming clouds International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 dashed lines by Gene Fry net warming effect. Magnitude?

Sea Levels over Last 24,000 Years 3 meters per century during Meltwater Pulse 1A (1 millennium) 1.5 meters per century from 15 to 8 millennia ago 10 millennia ago, Earth’s surface warmed at a rate of 0.03°C / century. Current warming is 50-150 times as fast, but only 1/3 as much ice is left.

Ice Sheet Contribution to Global Sea Level Rise . 11 Combined 9 Greenland Antarctica 7 millimeters 5 3 1 -1 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Andrew Shepherd et al., “A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance”, Science 38(6111):1183-1189. Nov. 30, 2012 Greenland & Antarctic Ice

Projections for average annual ground temperature at 1 meter deep. Blue is permafrost. Red surface is above freezing. Draft National Climate Assessment, Figure 22.5, Alaska Permafrost . 2013

mid-range emissions “Extreme” means Fraction of US Affected observed mean of 19 models individual model results Draft National Climate Assessment, Figure 2.21 - 2013 US Dought Projection .

High Emissions Scenario The map does NOT include differences in evaporation. Global Climate Change in the United States , June 2009, NOAA et al. at 31 Future Rain in North America

Projected Palmer Drought Index Soil Moisture change from local baseline (1902-2010?)

Winters are getting drier … Via NOAA: “Reds and oranges highlight lands around the Mediterranean that experienced significantly drier winters during 1971-2010 than the comparison period of 1902-2010.”

Permafrost Carbon By 2100, permafrost may be adding more carbon to the air than humans, and cumulatively, will have added more than humans have added to date. By 2300, permafrost by itself may well double today ’ s CO 2 levels in the air. Human emissions are no longer the only game in town. We ’ re heading for a repeat of 55 million years ago (+6°C), but today ’ s sun heats Earth 1.7°C more, and we ’ ve burned fossil fuels. Thus it may get even hotter. By 8-9°C? So , we must stop adding carbon to the air, soon, . AND start subtract ing carbon from the air even faster than we are now adding it.

Major Crops : US, China & India Produce Half of World Total Corn Rice 350 240 300 200 Million Metric Tons Million Metric Tons 250 160 200 120 150 80 US 100 US China China 40 India 50 India 0 0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Wheat Soybeans 140 100 90 120 80 Million Metric Tons Million Metric Tons 100 70 60 80 50 60 40 US 30 40 China US India 20 China 20 India 10 0 0 Corn, Wheat, Rice, Soy - US, China, India . 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

World Grain Prices • 800 Over 200 5 -7, . 750 world prices . UN: Food & Agriculture Organization 700 rose 125% . for wheat, . 650 100% for corn, . 600 27% for rice. + . 550 US $ / Tonne soybeans 83% . Rice 500 in just 1 year. . 450 400 Look at 2008 . . Wheat 350 Over 200 6 -7, . 300 food prices rose . 18% in China, . 250 Corn 13% in Indonesia . 200 & Pakistan, . 150 10+% in India, . 100 Russia & . J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J 2012 Latin America. . 2008 2009 2013 2010 2011 2007 Over 2007-8, world food prices rose 20 -150%. . In the US, food prices rose too: whole wheat bread 12%, milk 29%, eggs 36%. Why? Grain for ethanol, more meat for China, droughts in Australia, Ukraine, Russia , devalued $. High oil prices mean more $ for fertilizer & pesticides, & especially to fuel pumps & tractors. World Food Prices .

• • • Crop Responses to Warming Yields rise with more CO 2 1.0 at 1st, but then nitrogen limits kick in. C Relative Yield / acre o r Wheat n CO 2 Fertilization of Crops . .8 1.5 Wheat Soy today Soy .6 1.4 Relative Yield Rice based Des Moines .4 26 1.3 Pine Bluff Bismarck on studies, Kolkata Wichita ‘ 72- ’ 06 , Hatfield .2 1.2 sum. by 2011 Hatfield 2011 .0 1.1 Mean June Temps , ‘ 81- ’ 10 Corn 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1.0 °F (24-hour mean) study CO 2 levels = 330 Nitrogen & water 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 ( ‘ 72) to 380 ppm ( ‘ 06). not constraining. parts per million Paleo-climate records show 6°C warming, long-term, for “ 2 x CO 2 ” (560 ppm). Crop Responses to +4°C, 2xCO 2 (560 ppm) Crop Responses to +6°C, 2 x CO 2 1.2 1.2 C Wheat o r n Relative Yield Relative Yield 1.0 1.0 Soy .8 .8 .6 .6 Des Moines Des Moines .4 .4 Pine Bluff Bismarck Pine Bluff Bismarck Kolkata Wichita Wichita .2 .2 .0 .0 Kolkata India Mean June Temps Mean June Temps 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 °F (24-hour mean) °F (24-hour mean) Nitrogen & water not constraining. Yields rise 17% for KS soy , but fall 15% for IA corn , 13% for AR rice, 4% for ND wheat, & 47% for rice in Kolkata. But water tables are falling now , fast. It will get worse. Crop Response Graphs .

• “ Six months ago my biggest worry was that an emissions deal would make American business less competitive compared to China. ” • “ Now my concern is that every day that we delay trying to find a price for carbon is a day that China uses to dominate the green economy. ” Senator Lindsay Graham Republican (South Carolina) January 29, 2010 Green Jobs .