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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
David Chiaramonti RE-CORD Renewable Energy Consortium for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
David Chiaramonti RE-CORD Renewable Energy Consortium for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
David Chiaramonti RE-CORD Renewable Energy Consortium for R&D CREAR Center for Renewable Energies University of Florence Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015 David Chiaramonti 50-100 US$ Fossil 10 US$ Bio 1 barrel = 165
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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
USDOE – NREL/PNNL study
Ø Top Value Added Chemicals from Biomass Ø Biobased Syngas and Sugars Platforms Ø Top 30 candidates that:
1) exhibited multiple functionalities suitable for further conversion as derivatives or molecular families 2) could be produced from both lignocellulosics and starch, 3) were C1-C6 monomers, 4) were not aromatics derived from lignin 5) were not already supercommodity chemicals.
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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
USDOE – NREL/PNNL study
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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
FEEDSTOCK
Ø US
- corn residue (cobs,
leaves, husk and some stalk) Ø Brasil
- sugar can bagasse, but
also other residues and dedicated crops Ø EU
- residues and wastes
(straw) + no food lignocellulosic crops Ø Asia
- straw/agricultural
residues as major feedstock so far
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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
The Sugar Platform to Biobased Chemicals
Ø “From an energy and hydrogen balance standpoint, biochemical platforms are more efficient at producing oxidized products than highly reduced molecules. Highly oxidized products such as lactic, acetic and adipic acids command significantly higher prices than ethanol or biodiesel and they are challenging to make by non-biochemical platforms.” [..] Since sugar molecules inherently contain high amounts of oxygen, it is more efficient to convert them to oxidized intermediates and aim for higher value chemicals markets.” Ø The Heff/C Staircase: “It is apparent that fewer steps must be ‘climbed’ (or none in the case of sugar conversion to acetic or lactic acids) along the Heff/C ‘staircase’ for sugar to be converted to intermediates that, in the short term at least, can be sold as chemical precursors rather than as fuels.”
Source: IEA-T39 Drop-in Biofuels report, 2013
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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
There are significant revenue potentials along the entire biomass value chain. The values given are approximate business potential in US$ billions by 2020 [Source: D.King. The Future of Industrial Biorefineries. WEF. 2010]
Biomass Chain: Revenue Potential
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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
EU competitiveness
Ø Lots of EU R&D Ø Demonstration / implementation in US, China, Brazil.
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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
EU competitiveness vs Market Expansion
Ø Most expansion in capacity expected outside the EU, in Asia and South America Ø Which are the main factors for that?
ð Policy (ILUC-post 2020)? ð Innovation-related policies? ð Biomass availability/cost? ð Structure/size of farms & Logistics? ð Financing? ð Sustainability certification? ð Demand-side management?
EU: Impact of Policy and Economic Crisis ü NER3001: 300 M€ unused awards by UPM- Stracel, Westwave, Pyrogrot and Ajos BTL ü Other 250-450 M€ awards at risk ü UPM statement: [..] uncertainty in the regulatory
- utlook for advanced biofuels [..]
…not only biofuels…also bioproducts going the same way..
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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
Chemicals – Vision 2030 (Source: ATKearney)
15% 45% 30% 10% 49% 25% 19% 7% 66% 15% 12% 7%
Sales (€ billion; 2030 is calculated at 2010 prices and exchange rates) The core of the chemical industry is shifting to Asia, and by 2030 at least half of the top 10 chemical companies will be Asian or Middle Eastern
19851 480 2010 2,353 2030e2 4,637 Asia Europe NAFTA Rest of world
Note: EU27 refers to the 27 member states of the European Union.
1 Ruler strategy production volume CAGR 2000-10 extrapolated to 2030; 0.9% is expected ruler strategy CAGR for EU27 2010-2030.Value and weighting reflect 2010 prices.
2 Petrochemicals and specialty chemicals are included in the category “organic chemicals.”Sources: European Chemical Industry Council (CEFIC); A.T. Kearney analysis
Production volumes (€ billion, 2010 prices) Chemicals production in Europe is expected to grow moderately, with slightly higher demand for consumer chemicals
578 2010 Europe 87 2010 Europe excluding EU27 491 2010 EU27 Organic chemicals2 Polymers Consumer chemicals Basic inorganics CAGR 244 (50%) 118 (24%) 67 (14%) 63 (13%) 587 2030e EU27 300 (51%) 118 (20%) 64 (11%) 105 (18%) 1.1% 0% 2.6% –0.2% 0.9% Ruler strategy1
Bioproducts fits into a wider scenario ..
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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
Commercialising Bioproducts = Bring Innovation to Market
Demand as barrier to Innovation – Policy measures
[Source: J.Elder. Review of Policy Measures to Stimulate Private Demand for Innovation. Concepts and Effects. NESTA Working Paper N0. 13/13. 2013]
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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015
Impact of policies on bio products market
Ø Example: plastic/biodegradable bags Ø European Union’s decided to reduce overall consumption of thin plastic bags in the region by about 80% by 2019, compared to 2010 consumption levels. Ø The biodegradable plastics market in Europe is forecast to witness a robust CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of around 12% during 2014-19
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David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015