Data and Trends 1 of 54 How Is The Economy? 2 of 54 First Lets - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Data and Trends

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How Is The Economy?

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First Let’s Look Back

LinkedIn (2003) Facebook (2004) YouTube (2005) Twi9er (2006) Smart Phone (2007) Fitbit (2007) Spo2fy (2007) Dropbox (2007) Airbnb (2008) Hulu (2008) Kickstarter (2009) FaceEme (2010) Uber (2009) Pinterest (2010) Snapchat (2011)

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Major Recent (2007) Announcements

• Merck & Co. ($300M, 200 jobs)
• QuinEles TransnaEonal (1,000 jobs)
• NovarEs ($276M, 350 jobs)
• Eisai ($105M, 84 jobs)
• SEefel Research ($50M, 200 jobs)
• United TherapeuEcs ($54M, 175 jobs)
• GSK ($92M,200 jobs)
• Wyeth ($100M, 200 jobs)
• Novo Nordisk ($100M, 200 jobs)

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Annual U.S. Nonfarm Employment Change

• 1,757,000
• 532,000

62,000 2,019,000 2,484,000 2,071,000 1,115,000

• 3,617,000
• 5,052,000

1,022,000 2,103,000 2,236,000 2,151,000 2,998,000 2,713,000 2,240,000

• 6,000,000
• 5,000,000
• 4,000,000
• 3,000,000
• 2,000,000
• 1,000,000

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

First quarter of 2017 about the same as 2016 About 7 years of monthly private sector job growth

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs

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All States One Year

1.4%

• 2.1%

2.0% 1.1% 2.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 3.0% 3.0% 0.7% 2.7% 0.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 1.5%

• 0.1%

0.9% 1.6% 1.4% 1.9% 1.5% 0.0% 1.4% 2.1% 0.9% 3.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.9% 1.2% 1.6%

• 0.3%

0.7%

• 0.1%

2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.8% 1.6% 2.2% 2.1% 3.2% 0.9% 1.2% 2.9%

• 0.8%

0.9%

• 2.1%
• 3.0%
• 2.0%
• 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado ConnecEcut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachuse9s Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

% Nonfarm Employment Change Mar 2016 – Mar 2017

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs

Utah 3.2% Florida 3.0% Georgia 3.0% Nevada 3.0% Washington 2.9%

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All States One Year

Total Nonfarm Employment Change Mar 2016 – Mar 2017

28,500

• 6,900

53,000 14,000 346,400 49,100 1,600 3,700 6,400 246,100 131,000 4,500 18,700 25,500 45,100 8,100 3,600 28,900

• 1,900

5,300 44,200 49,000 79,800 44,300 100 38,500 10,000 9,500 38,300 9,600 49,700 7,100 114,300 69,700

• 1,200

36,500

• 1,900

39,500 60,600 4,000 35,800 7,000 63,500 249,000 45,300 2,700 45,800 92,400

• 6,100

25,100

• 6,100
• 50,000

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado ConnecEcut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachuse9s Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Total added jobs 2,185,000 California 346,400 Texas 249,000 Florida 246,100 Georgia 131,000 New York 114,300 Washington 92,400

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs

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Southern States One Year

% Nonfarm Employment Change Mar 2016 – Mar 2017

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs

1.5% 1.4% 1.1% 3.0% 3.0% 1.5%

• 0.1%

1.6% 1.4% 0.0% 1.6%

• 0.1%

1.8% 2.2% 2.1% 1.2%

• 0.8%
• 1.0%
• 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%

USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV

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% Annual Job Change 1990 - Sept 2017

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs

• 8%
• 6%
• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sep-16

United States North Carolina

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs

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NC Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

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Labor Force Participation Rate

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

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North Carolina Metros

Nonfarm Employment Growth March 2016 – March 2017

1.8% 2.2% 2.8% 3.1% 2.3%

• 0.8%
• 1.4%

1.8% 0.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.9% 3.0% 0.4% 3.1% 0.3%

• 2.0%
• 1.5%
• 1.0%
• 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs 13 of 54

North Carolina Metros

Nonfarm Employment Growth March 2016 – March 2017

4,100 1,700 34,700 6,800 (1,100) (600) 6,500 300 2,400 100 400 17,600 200 3,800 800 (5,000)

• 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

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Change in Average Employment Dec 2015 – Dec 2016

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs

NORTH CAROLINA State Average 3.4% 15 of 54

Annual Percentage Job Growth

• 8%
• 6%
• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sep-16

United States North Carolina RTRP Region

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs 16 of 54

RTRP Net New Jobs 1990-2016

• 161

17,868 26,307 26,115 23,079 24,667 33,156 26,005 21,277 21,117 5,890

• 14,368
• 1,167

18,258 19,738 32,681 33,649

• 401
• 35,958
• 4,203

13,257 21,207 16,708 23,083 26,766 30,376

• 40,000
• 30,000
• 20,000
• 10,000

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs

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RTRP % Job Shifts 2011 - 2016

Source: EMSI

• 6%

42% 17% 1% 10% 2% 11% 24% 14% 21% 23% 16% 16% 20% 25% 2%

• 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

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RTRP % Job Shifts 2011 - 2016

Source: EMSI

In Manufacturing Lost 1,232 jobs in food manufacturing and 1,177 in chemical manufacturing Gained 1,493 jobs in transportaEon equipment manufacturing In Informa2on Gained 3,090 jobs in publishing In Finance and Insurance Gained 2,331 in securiEes & commodiEes Gained 1,754 in insurance carriers In Professional Scien2fic and Technical Services gained 14,192 In Educa2onal services gained 3,240 In Health services gained 16,135 Also added 15,850 jobs in food services and drinking establishments

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Employment Gains by Sector

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs & NC Commerce 0.7% 1.7% 2.6% 3.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 1.5% 1.0% 2.4% 1.8% 3.1% 2.7% 1.1%

• 0.2%

1.6% 1.1% 2.6% 3.2% 5.6% 3.8% 1.3% 0.3% 2.5%

• 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Government Leisure & Hospitality EducaEon & Health Services Professional & Technical Services Financial Trade, Transport & UEliEes Manufacturing Total

RTRP Metros NC USA

March 2016-2017

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Tech Sector Employment

Source: : EL estimates based on EMSI 2016.3

Growth 2010-2015 – NC Ranks 3rd

10.9% 10.9% 20.6% 20.6%

• 20%

0% 20% 40% 60%

West Virginia Kentucky Vermont Arkansas Wyoming Virginia Kansas Alabama New Jersey Louisiana Maryland Rhode Island Mississippi Connecticut Indiana Maine New Mexico Hawaii Ohio Idaho South Dakota Iowa Florida Alaska New Hampshire Pennsylvania Minnesota Nebraska South Carolina Tennessee Montana Nevada Wisconsin District of Columbia United States Washington Oklahoma Illinois Massachusetts Georgia Oregon Colorado Missouri New York California Arizona Delaware Utah Texas North Carolina Michigan North Dakota

45% of North Carolina’s Tech Jobs are in the RTRP Region

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Manufacturing

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Southern States

17.7% 13.9% 5.0% 11.0% 19.2% 21.2% 5.8% 13.1% 14.4% 20.9% 9.6% 16.3% 16.1% 14.5% 9.2% 9.9% 12.0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV USA

Source: NAM 2015 State Manufacturing Data Table

Manufacturing Share of GSP

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Southern States One Year

% Nonfarm Manufacturing Employ. Change Mar 2016 – Mar 2017

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs

0.3% 2.7% 2.0% 3.7% 0.4% 3.1%

• 2.5%
• 1.0%

0.2%

• 0.5%
• 0.2%
• 0.8%

3.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%

• 3.0%
• 4.0%
• 3.0%
• 2.0%
• 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV

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NC Manufacturing Jobs and GDP

1997 – 2015 normalized as percent of levels in 1997

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs & US Bureau of Economic Analysis

100.0% 157.6% 57.6%

40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NC MANUFACTURING GDP NC MANUFACTURING JOBS

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Change in Manufacturing Jobs Five Years 2011 - 2016

Source: EMSI – NC Commerce

NORTH CAROLINA State Average 6.8% 26 of 54

Change in Manufacturing Jobs One Year 2015 - 2016

Source: EMSI – NC Commerce

NORTH CAROLINA State Average 0.8% 27 of 54

RTRP Manufacturing Job Growth

2011 - 2016

• TransportaEon Equipment +8,295
• Fabricated Metals

+4,572

• PlasEcs and Rubber

+4,510

• Machinery

+4,169

• Furniture

+3,569

• Food

+2,690

• Wood Products

+2,249

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Change in Manufactured Exports

Source: U.S. Census – Foreign Trade

41.0% 13.0% 5.1% 34.1% 46.8% 33.1% 0.1% 9.6% 36.7% 21.8% 41.8% 52.9% 29.3% 19.0% 6.7% 8.9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

2010 - 2015

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% Growth in GDP 2010 - 2015

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 22% 23% 37% 20% 27% 33% 29% 24% 25% 34% 24% 25% 22% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

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North Carolina Metros

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Growth in GDP 2010 - 2015

29.1% 10.8% 18.2% 14.9% 2.2% 10.8% 16.0% 19.6% 13.2% 1.4% 8.1% 2.1% 23.7% 12.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

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% Growth in Personal Income

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2.9% 3.7% 4.1% 4.8% 3.2% 4.4% 3.7% 1.9% 3.5% 6.4% 4.8% 4.2% 4.0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

2014 - 2015

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North Carolina Metros

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Growth in Personal Income 2014-2015

2.9% 2.9% 4.0% 3.3% 3.8% 2.0% 3.5% 3.1% 4.9%

• 0.9%

2.9% 3.0% 3.3% 3.6%

• 2%
• 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

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Median Household Income

Source: U.S. Census

2015 NORTH CAROLINA State Average $46,868 34 of 54

RTRP Average Annual Wages

$22,012 $23,384 $24,610 $25,092 $25,698 $26,865 $28,034 $29,822 $31,228 $33,451 $36,337 $37,117 $37,545 $38,467 $39,909 $40,869 $42,727 $44,640 $44,593 $46,272 $47,718 $48,453 $49,154 $50,039 $51,079 $52,485 $53,462

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs

1990 - 2016

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RTRP Average Annual Wage Growth

$39,718 $42,255 $50,419 $50,138 $52,563 $53,462

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: US Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs

Adjusted for Inflation 1990 - 2016

From 1990-2000 + 26.9% From 2000-2010 + 4.3% From 2010-2016 + 1.7%

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NC Housing Price Index

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency/Haver Analytics

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Glob Global E al Econ

• nom
• my Imp

y Impacts f acts for 2017

• r 2017
• High Unemployment
• Recovering GDP
• Strong Dollar
• Unknown

geopoliEcal future

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UrbanizaEon

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Percent of U.S. Population

Source: : h9p://statchatva.org/2016/06/06/the-metropolitanizaEon-of-rural-america/

Living in Metro Areas By Size

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The Slowing of Global

Source: : The United NaEons Data

Population Growth

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Domestic Migration of all States

Source: U.S. Census

160,346

• 266,115

192,337

• 104,537

650,660

• 425,954
• 191,130
• 38,499
• 269,194
• 653,071

180,189

• 153,296 -132,073

159,023 736,492 124,326

• 800,000
• 600,000
• 400,000
• 200,000

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado ConnecEcut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachuse9s Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

2,005

The Winners The Losers Texas New York Florida Illinois Colorado New Jersey North Carolina California Arizona Michigan South Carolina Ohio

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% of Population Moving Across State Lines Annually

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Technology

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TOP FACTORS FOR COMPANIES (1) Availability of skilled labor (2) Highway accessibility (3) Labor costs (3) Proximity to major markets (3) State & local incenEves (3) Available land (3) Tax exempEons (8) Energy availability and costs (9) Proximity to suppliers (10) Training programs/Technical schools (11) Availability buildings (12) Accessibility to a major airport CONSIDERING NEW INVESTMENT

Site Selection Consultants Combined score for factors judged as very important or important

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Infrastructure Competitiveness ü Roads ü Rail ü Ports ü Energy ü Water ü Sewer ü Broadband ü Buildings & Sites ü Air Service

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RDU Scheduled Seats 2008 - 2016

6,531,518 5,951,761 5,835,953 5,993,727 5,872,091 5,880,516 6,168,539 6,289,133 6,824,089

5,200,000 5,400,000 5,600,000 5,800,000 6,000,000 6,200,000 6,400,000 6,600,000 6,800,000 7,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: RDU, April 2017 52 of 54

Enplanement Growth

Source: Federal AviaEon AdministraEon (FAA)

2015 - 2016

10.1% 11.7% 3.7% 2.8% 7.1% 1.9% 10.4% 5.2% 2.5% 6.2% 6.2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

BNA IND MCI MKE MSY PIT RDU RSW SAT SJC SMF

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Summary and Predictions q The region conEnues strong job and populaEon growth q The drivers of the economic growth conEnue to evolve q GDP growth is good q Average wage growth has been slow q Global trends will conEnue to impact the region q Worker skills and infrastructure are growing in importance

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