Data Analysis of Early Fuel Cell Market Demonstrations Fuel Cell - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Jen Kurtz, Todd Ramsden, Keith Wipke, Sam Sprik

NREL/PR-560-47192

Fuel Cell Seminar Palm Springs, CA

November 17, 2009

Data Analysis of Early Fuel Cell Market Demonstrations

Presentation DEM24-2

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Fuel Cell & Infrastructure Data Collection, Processing, & Analysis Demonstrations Objectives Methodology Results

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Government Funded Early Fuel Cell Markets

• Funding sources include DOD Defense Logistics

Agency, DOE American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), and DOE Interagency Agreement (IAA)

• Diverse collection of early market fuel cell

applications, project partners, and end users

• Expected fuel cell deployment: >1,000 units
• Fuel cell applications cover fuel cell forklifts,

backup power, micro-CHP, APU, and portable power

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Government Funded Fuel Cell Early Market Deployments – Separated by Funding Source & Application

2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 FC Count Install Quarter Government Funded Early Market Fuel Cell Count Projected Quantities Subject to Change DoD Forklift ARRA Forklift IAA Backup ARRA Backup ARRA Stationary

Created: Nov-12-09 4:40 PM

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Government Funded FC Early Market Project Sites

Many site locations to be determined. Quantity and sites are subject to change. DOE is fund source for ARRA & IAA sites.

Project partners include DOE, DoD, FC developers, H2 suppliers, and end users

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Early Fuel Cell Market Data Analysis Objectives

• Independent technology assessment; focused on fuel cell system

and hydrogen infrastructure: performance, operation, and safety.

• Leverage data processing and analysis capabilities from the fuel cell

vehicle Learning Demonstration project and DoD Forklift Demo.

• Establish a baseline of real-world fuel cell operation and

maintenance data and identify technical/market barriers.

• Support market growth of fuel cell technologies by reporting on

technology features relevant to the value proposition

• Report on technology to fuel cell and hydrogen communities, R&D,

and stakeholders

• Individual data analyses for

each FC system and site

• Identify individual

contribution to CDPs

• Only shared with partner

who supplied data

Detailed Data Products

(DDPs)

• Aggregated data across

multiple systems, sites, and teams

• Publish analysis results

without revealing proprietary data

Composite Data Products

(CDPs)

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1) Data templates are created for each different application/report and are common to all partners in an application. 2) Data exchange may happen more frequently based on data, analysis, & collaboration 3) Results published via NREL Tech Val website, conferences, and reports

Data Flow

CDPs every 6 months3 DDPs every 6 months2; used for CDP review Internal analysis completed quarterly Bundled data1 delivered to NREL quarterly

CDPs Project Team Partner/Site

Operation Data

NREL HSDC

Data Processing & Analysis

Results

Data Products Evaluating secure data transfer options such as mail and secure FTP

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Data Reporting – Fuel Cell Forklift Example

• Fuel cell forklift application represents a

significant early market opportunity for fuel cells

• 40 fuel cell forklifts in operation at DLA’s

Defense Depot, Susquehanna Pennsylvania

• 9 months of detailed data available, including
• ver 10,000 hydrogen fills
• Available data provides a real-world

understanding of fuel cell forklift operations

• Data from this forklift installation and upcoming

future installations will be used to develop Composite Data Products on early market deployments of fuel cell forklifts

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Data on Deployments and Usage

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Number of Vehicles Total Vehicle Hours

Vehicle Hours: All OEMs, Gen 1 and Gen 2 In Service Retired 100,284 Total Vehicle Hours =

Through 2009 Q2

Created: Aug-26-09 04:13 PM

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Amount of Hydrogen Dispensed (Total = 6169 kg) Hydrogen Dispensed [kg]

cdpFL03

2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Total Fuelings = 7931 Forklift Fueling by Quarter Number of Fuelings

Created: Nov-06-09 7:35 AM

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Data on Deployments and Usage (cont.)

10 20 30 40 50 Time at Fuel Cell Stack Power Levels: DOE Fleet Operating Time [%]

0-5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-20% 20-25% 25-30% 30-35% 35-40% 40-45% 45-50% 50-55% 55-60% 60-65% 65-70% 70-75% 75-80% 80-85% 85-90% 90-95% 95-100% >100%

% Max Fuel Cell Power (Gross) All time Time with 0 speed

Created: Aug-26-09 2:15 PM

2 4 6 8 10 12

• 30
• 20
• 10

10 20 30 40 50 60 1.4 % trips below 0 oC Max Op = 140.0 oF Min Op = -5.8 oF 26.9 % trips above 28 oC Trip Frequency [%] Temperature [oC] Average Ambient Trip Temperature: DOE Fleet

0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 >8 5 10 15 20 25 30 Segmented Trips/Hour Histogram: DOE Fleet Trips/Hour* Frequency [%] *Trips/Hour based on 50 hour segments spanning stack operating period

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Reliability Availability 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 FC Backup: Reliability & Availability % 25th & 75th % median

• utlier

Data on Fuel Cell Value Proposition

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 53 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Time to Fill - Dispenser Data Number of Fills Time [min] Average Time = 3.49 min

/ /

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Data on Fuel Cell Technology

0-200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 >2000 5 10 15 20 25 30 27% Gen1 > 2000 projected hrs 9% Gen2 > 2000 projected hrs Projected Hours % Stacks Durability: Projected Hours to Low Fuel Cell Power Limit Gen1 (> 200 operation hrs) Gen1 (< 200 operation hrs) Gen2 (> 200 operation hrs) Gen2 (< 200 operation hrs)

Created: Sep-11-09 8:57 AM

• 1. Low fuel cell power limit is dependent on the fuel cell vehicle system and is unique to each company in this Learning Demonstration.
• 2. Acceptable low vehicle performance limit will be determined by retail customer expectations.
• 3. Power projection method based on the voltage degradation techniques, but uses max fuel cell power instead of voltage at a specific

high current.

• 4. Stacks with less than 200 operation hours are in separate groups because the projection is based on operation data and with operation

hours greater than 200 the degradation rate tends to flatten out.

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Understanding H2 Tank Cycle Life in FC Forklifts

• Need to better

understand expected H2 tank filling cycles in forklift applications

• Data currently being

collected can inform that discussion

• Can aggregate data
• n operating hours

per fill and per shift to better predict tank cycling

• Tank life is important

factor in business case if shorter than the life of the lift

2 4 6 8 10 12 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Average = 4.1 hours Operating Time between Fuelings Op Time between Fuelings [hours] Count

Created: Nov-13-09 3:42 PM

Excludes Data > 12 hours. Data reflects site operations and not necessarily total available runtime.

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Tank Cycling: Forklift Operations Per Shift & Per kg

cdpFL02

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Accumulated Operating Hours Number of Forklifts Op Hours

Created: Nov-06-09 7:35 AM

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Per Shift Per kg Hours

Range of Average Operating Hours Per Lift By Fleet

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Per Shift Per kg

Histogram of Operating Hours Per Lift

0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 >7

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Tank Cycling: Real-World Tank Cycles Per Month

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Per Shift Per kg Hours Range of Average Operating Hours Per Lift By Fleet

2 4 6 8 10 12 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Average = 4.1 hours Operating Time between Fuelings Op Time between Fuelings [hours] Count

Excludes Data > 12 hours. Data reflects site operations and not necessarily total available runtime.

20 40 60 80 100 120

Per Shift/Month Per Month

Cycles

Range of Tank Cycles By Month

Average

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50 100 150 200 250 300 Non-Event Near Miss Incident Number of Reports Severity Primary Factors of Infrastructure Safety Reports Through 2009 Q2

Calibration/Settings/ Software Controls Design Flaw Electrical Power to Site Environment (Weather, Power Disruption, Other) False Alarm Inadequate Training, Protocol, SOP Inadequate/ Non-working Equipment Maintenance Required Mischief, Vandalism, Sabotage New Equipment Materials Not Yet Determined Operator/Personnel Error System Manually Shutdown

Created: Sep-01-09 8:38 AM

An INCIDENT is an event that results in:

• a lost time accident and/or injury to personnel
• damage/unplanned downtime for project equipment, facilities or property
• impact to the public or environment
• any hydrogen release that unintentionally ignites or is sufficient to sustain a flame if ignited
• release of any volatile, hydrogen containing compound (other than the hydrocarbons used as common fuels)

A NEAR-MISS is:

• an event that under slightly different circumstances could have become an incident
• unplanned H2 release insufficient to sustain a flame

Likely CDPs & Comparable FC Vehicle CDPs

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 500 1000 1500 Avg Fuel Rate (kg/min) Number of Fueling Events Histogram of Fueling Rates All Light Duty Through 2009Q2

5 minute fill of 5 kg at 350 bar 3 minute fill of 5 kg at 350 bar

21854 Events Average = 0.78 kg/min 24% >1 kg/min

2006 MYPP Tech Val Milestone 2012 MYPP Tech Val Milestone

Created: Aug-14-09 10:09 AM

Other Likely CDPs

Durability Efficiency Power, Voltage, Energy Safety Reliability Maintenance Cost (installation and operation) Market Application Comparisons

Tank Pressures before Refueling

15%

F E

Total refuelings1 = 7931

• 1. Some refueling events not recorded/detected due to data noise or incompleteness.
• 2. The outer arc is set at 25% total refuelings.
• 3. Full = 5000 psi

Median Tank Level (At Fill) = 35%

FCV Learning Demo has 72 Data Results

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Data Results Reported to Multiple Stakeholders

Data Results Government

Example Results: Market Impact Environmental Impact

Developer

Example Result: Stack Durability

End User

Example Result: Value Proposition

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Comparison of Fuel Cell and Battery Powered Forklifts – Cost Metrics

PEM Fuel Cell Powered Class 1 Forklift to Comparable Battery Powered Forklift

Parameter Performance/Cost of Fuel Cell Version Compared to Battery Fuel Cell Advantage Forklift Vehicle Cost & Life No Difference N/A Powerpack Cost (FC or Battery) 3x – 6x Higher

• Powerpack Life (FC or Battery)

1 – 1.7x Longer + # Powerpacks Needed 1/Lift vs 1/Shift/Lift + H2/Electricity Fuel Costs 4x – 6x Higher

• H2 Fueling vs Battery Change

3x – 5x Faster + Powerpack Maintenance/Repair ?? TBD H2 vs Charger Infrastructure (Capital + O&M) ?? TBD

Source: Assessments based on Identification and Characterization of Near-term Direct Hydrogen Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Markets [Battelle Memorial Institute (April 2007)] coupled with forklift manufacturer industry information. Future progress reporting will be based on actual data from DOE and DOD fuel cell forklift demonstrations as reported to NREL.

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Comparison of Fuel Cell Forklifts – Other Performance Metrics

PEM Fuel Cell Forklift to Conventional Forklift

Parameter Advantage for Fuel Cell vs. Battery Ambient Operating Temperature Range + Consistent Power Availability Over Shift + Continuous Runtime + Ease of Use + Safety ? Parameter Advantage for FC vs. Diesel/Propane Direct Emissions (Criteria Air Pollutants) + Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions + Noise +

Source: Assessments based on relevant literature coupled with forklift manufacturer industry information. Future progress reporting will be based on actual data from DOE and DOD fuel cell forklift demonstrations as reported to NREL.

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Tech Val NREL Website & Contact Info

Jennifer Kurtz jennifer.kurtz@nrel.gov 303-275-4061

www.nrel.gov/hydrogen/proj_tech_validation.html

Todd Ramsden todd.ramsden@nrel.gov 303-275-3704