Cyclone impacts on engineering design standards for Infrastructure - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The 4th Workshop on Tropical Cyclones and Flash Floods )Evaluation of the Sultanate's Experience and Lessons Learned after Guno and Phet Cyclones) Cyclone impacts on engineering design standards for Infrastructure (case study: Sultanate of Oman
Presented by:
* Professor of Hydraulics, Irrigation & Hydraulics Dept., Faculty of
Engineering, Cairo Univ. Email:ceeg@link.net
The 4th Workshop on Tropical Cyclones and Flash Floods )Evaluation of the Sultanate's Experience and Lessons Learned after Guno and Phet Cyclones)”
Introduction Generation Mechanism of Cyclones Cyclones Naming Categories of Tropical Cyclones Cyclones History in Oman Gonu, Phet, and Mikono Cyclones
Meteorological Model Ground Stations Damage of Gonu and Impacts on Design Criteria
Risk Management
Convective Towers
It would help identify each individual tropical cyclone
Local and international media become focused to the
It does not confuse the public when there is more
The name of the tropical cyclone is well remembered
Warnings reach a much wider audience very rapidly
The Panel member’s name are listed alphabetically
The name will be used sequentially column wise The first name will start from the first row of column
The names which have been already used from the
Panel Member Column One Column Two Column Three Column Four Name Pron’ Name Pron’ Name Pron’ Name Pron’
Bangladesh Onil Onil Ogni Og-ni Nisha Ni-sha Giri Gi-ri India Agni Ag’ni Akash Aakaa’sh Bijli Bij’li Jal Jal Maldives Hibaru
Pyarr Pyarr Yemyin Ye-myin Phyan Phyan Thane Thane Oman Baaz Ba-az Sidr Sidr’ Ward War’d Murjan Mur’jaan Pakistan Fanoos Fanoos Nargis Nar gis Laila Lai la Nilam Ni lam Sri Lanka Mala
Rash’mi Bandu
Mukda Muuk-dar Khai Muk Ki-muuk Phet Pet Phailin Pi-lin
Panel Member Column Five Column Six Column Seven Column Eight Name Pron’ Name Pron’ Name Pron’ Name Pron’
Bangladesh Helen Helen Chapala Cho-po-la Ockhi Ok-khi Fani Foni India Lehar Le’har Megh Me’gh Sagar Saa’gar Vayu Vaa’yu Maldives Madi
Nanauk Na-nauk Kyant Kyant Daye Da-ye Kyarr Kyarr Oman Hudhud Hud’hud Nada N’nada Luban L’luban Maha M’maha Pakistan Nilofar Ni lofar Vardah Var dah Titli Titli Bulbul Bul bul Sri Lanka Priya
Aa’siri Gigum Gi’gum Soba
Komen Goh-men Mora Moh-rar Phethai Pay-ti Amphan Um-pun
Storms affecting the Arabian Peninsula by month Month Number of storms May 14 June 18 July 3 August 1 September 3 October 7 November 8 December 5
Storms affecting the Arabian Peninsula by period Period Number of storms 1800s 5 1900–49 10 1950s 3 1960s 6 1970s 11 1980s 2 1990s 6 2000s 5 2010s 11
Wind Speed (kts) Forecasted (June 1, 2007) Dis = 5 km Do3
a) 00:00UTC
b) 06:00UTC
c) 12:00UTC
d) 18:00UTC
Wind Speed (kts) Forecasted (June 7, 2007) Dis = 5 km Do3
a) 00:00UTC
b) 06:00UTC
c) 12:00UTC
d) 18:00UTC
Lat:19.2N Lon:64.9E Lat:18.7N Lon:66.0E METEOSAT-7 RGB = CH (1,4)
Lat:23.9N Lon:59.4E Lat:23.0N Lon:60.4E
Parameter
SI WRF-ARW Range of Error
Wind Speed (intensity) June 1 D (in late the day) D (in late the day) Generally, in the model forecast period, the intensity
relatively weaker than the
The system attained peak winds SuCS late on June 4, While the model attained peak winds VSCS early on June 6. June 2 DD – CS (Along the day) D – DD (Along the day) June 3 SCS - VSCS Along the day Within 3 and 4 June the model upgraded the system gradually until reached SCS. June 4 SuCS – VSCS In late the day June 5, 6 The system stills VSCS until early on June 6, and the system downgraded to SCS until late on June 6.
The model upgraded the system
gradually until reached VSCS in early on June 6, and the system downgraded gradually. June 7
The system downgraded to
CS until weakened at the late of the day. The system downgraded to CS until weakened at the late of the day.
Category Super Cyclonic Storm Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Severe Cyclonic Storm Cyclonic Storm Deep Depression Depression
Wind Speed (kts) Forecasted (May 31, 2010) Dis = 15 km Do2
a) 00:00UTC
b) 06:00UTC
c) 12:00UTC
d) 18:00UTC
Lat:22.5N Lon:57.8E Lat:22.9N Lon:59.5E
Parameter SI WRF-ARW Range of Error Wind Speed (intensity) May31 D D Generally, in the model forecast period, the intensity of the tropical cyclone was relatively as the observed. The system attained peak winds VSCS at June 3, While the model attained peak winds VSCS at the same time. June 1 DD – CS Along the day DD – SCS Along the day June 2 SCS - VSCS Along the day SCS – VSCS Along the day 3, 4 June The system stopped as VSCS along the 2 days 5, 6 June The system gradually downgraded to CS along the 2 days and dissipated early on June 7.
Category Super Cyclonic Storm Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Severe Cyclonic Storm Cyclonic Storm Deep Depression Depression
Bridges
Bridges
Culvert & Road Pavement
Side Ditch
Branch from Wadi Alansab with Area 17.85 Km2 The Study Area
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Main Channel Distance (m) Elevation (m) Legend WS PF 1 WS PF 2 Ground ghala ghala
50 100 150 200 250 14 16 18 20 22
Bridge Scour RS = 465
Station (m) Elevation (m) Legend WS PF 1 Ground Ineff Bank Sta Contr Scour Total Scour
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 12 14 16 18 20 22 Main Channel Distance (m) Elevation (m) Legend WS PF 1 WS PF 2 Ground ghala ghala
20 40 60 80 100 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
RS = 340 10
Station (m) Elevation (m) Legend WS PF 1 WS PF 2 Ground Ineff Bank Sta .03
Inflow & Outflow Hydrographs
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 5 10 15 20 25 Time (hrs) Flow (m3/s)
Inflow Outflow Initially Dry Outflow Initially Half Full Outflow Initially Full
100 Yrs
Inflow & Outflow Hydrographs
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5 10 15 20 25 Time (hrs) Flow (m3/s)
Inflow Outflow Initially Dry Outflow Initially Half Full Outflow Initially Full
PMF
128 After Screening 67 North and 10 Dhofar
105 Rain stations
Rainfall Item Old Manual, (1994 and Its addendums) New Manual (After Gonu) 2010 IDFCs One for All Oman Sultanate of Oman is divided to four
I (mm/hr) corresponding to 100 Yrs at 0.25 hr 140 174 (for IDFC of Zone 1) Gonu Effect
concentration less than 2 hours, there is no need to include cyclone effect (The manual IDFCs will be used). While if the time of concentration is more than 2 hours, cyclone effect should be taken into consideration (The manual IDFCs will not be used)
Flood Estimation Item Old Manual, (1994 and Its addendums) New Manual (After Gonu) 2010 Used Methods Rational and old set of Empirical equations. The regression equations are generated using very limited rainfall and flow records Rational, SCS Unit Hydrograph, and new generated set of Regression Equations. The regression equations are generated using huge number rainfall and flow records measured all over the Sultanate and taking into consideration Gonu effect Limits Rational method used for catchment areas less than or equal 10 km2 Rational method used for catchment areas less than or equal 1.3 km2 The Empirical Equations are used for catchments larger than 10 Km2 SCS unit hydrograph method is recommended for medium and large catchments
Flood Estimation Item Old Manual, (1994 and Its addendums) New Manual (After Gonu) 2010 Regression Eqn
are recommended for all catchment sizes (one for All Oman except Dhofar while the other one for Dhofar region). These equations should be used in conjunction with Rational or SCS unit hydrograph method
Culvert Item Old Manual, (1994 and Its addendums) New Manual (After Gonu) 2010 Dimensions Pipe 600 – 1050 mm Pipe 1000– 1500 mm Box S (1-4 m), H (max 4 m) Box S (1-4 m), H (1.5-4 m) Return Period Primary road 1 in 50 Yrs National & Arterial Road 1 in 50 Yrs Secondary road Secondary road Local Road 1 in 20 Yrs Distributor Road 1 in 25 Yrs Access Road Access Road
Culvert Item Old Manual, (1994 and Its addendums) New Manual (After Gonu) 2010
300 mm 600 mm
Water Depth 1.5 culvert depth 1.2 culvert depth Protection No recommended Protection Upstream Length
protection is 3 m
with filter Downstream Length
protection is 3 – 10 Culvert Depth
with filter
Bridge Item Old Manual, (1994 and Its addendums) New Manual (After Gonu) 2010 Protection
1.5 m depth of loose riprap and filter with length varied with computed scour Return Period Primary road 1 in 100 Yrs National & Arterial Road 1 in 100 Yrs Secondary road Secondary road Local Road Distributor Road Access Road Access Road
Irish Crossing Item Old Manual, (1994 and Its addendums) New Manual (After Gonu) 2010 Protection Mortared and loose riprap Using R.C. cutoff with 1 m depth for the most dangerous type in addition to at least 1.5 m loose riprap with the same depth Return Period Primary road 1 in 50 Yrs National & Arterial Road N/A Secondary road Secondary road Local Road 1 in 20 Yrs Distributor Road 1 in 25 Yrs Access Road Access Road
Have your dwellings checked before a cyclone season
Talk to children and explain about cyclones without
Create storm awareness by discussing effects of a
Keep your valuables and documents in containers,
Keep information about your blood group Keep lanterns filled with kerosene, torches and spare
Make plans for people who are either sick, suffer from
Store up at least seven-day stock of essential
Keep blankets & clothes ready for making beds. Also
Store some wooden boards so that they can be used
Keep trees and shrubs trimmed. Remove damaged
All doors, windows and openings should be secured Continue to listen to warning bulletins and keep in
Evacuate people to places of safety when
Take steps to protect your assets Store extra drinking water in covered vessels Remain calm
During the storm do not venture out unless advised to
If you have a vehicle and wish to move out of your
Avoid remaining on the top floor of dwellings. Stay
Fishermen are advised not to venture out into the sea.
Avoid taking shelters near old and damaged buildings
Do not touch power lines. One may get electrocuted
Watch out for broken glass and other sharp items in
Watch out for snakes and insects. Try to call for help Listen to the advice of local officials and emergency
Be sure that the storm has subsided before venturing
It is advisable to wait for the "all clear message" on
Wait for emergency relief teams to arrive. It may take
Stay away from flooded areas Fishermen should wait for at least 24 hours before
Volunteer to help people who may need assistance