Context of the Dutch Energy Transition: the multi-level approach - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Context of the Dutch Energy Transition: the multi-level approach

GeoDesign + BIM Conference 2 November 2018 Leen van Doorn Geonovum, Geodan, energy volunteer, (ex-)Alliander/NUON/PGEM/DEC l.vandoorn@geonovum.nl, +31 6 5240 0099

Breakfast, today

Framework of this talk

• drivers for change and challenges
• the future – a centralist approach
• the future – a decentralist approach
• the past of energy supply
• energy transition
• trend: polycentric governance
• energy and spatial information

Drivers for change ...

stable core values

• reliable: more robust infrastructure, fuel security
• affordable: EU: liberalisation  unbundling, energy markets
• clean: environmental consequences, climate change

recent developments

• “polycentric governance of climate change” : Paris / EU / country / province / region / township /

neighborhood / streets / individual citizens and companies

• the energetic society / knowledgeable citizens / pro-active businesses / bottom-up
• in he Netherlands: National Energy/Climate Agreement (2013, 2018/2019)
• lower costs for renewable energy production and energy storage (electricity, heat)
• earthquakes in the province of Groningen due to gas extraction
• desire for autarky and small scale – just like IT/internet (mainframes -> PC’s)
• electrification of energy supply (heat, transport, chemical industry, mobility, etc.)
• crucial role for IT and data (Internet of Energy)

... leading to opinions, opinions

The press and newsletters:

• the energy system must be based on sustainable gases: green gas, hydrogen
• windturbines at the North Sea
• first insulate all houses because otherwise heat pumps will consume too much electriciy for the grid
• with geothermics and aquathermics we can heat all houses
• batteries will never be cheap enough for residential use
• carbon capture and storage (CCS) is impossible
• carbon capture and usage (CCU) is a necessary
• we need multifuel-plants (biomass co-firing)
• biomass should be used for food, and for energy as last resort
• etc. etc.

One view is: a centralist way ...

This so-called ‘North Sea Wind Power Hub’ has the potential to supply 70 to 100 million Europeans with renewable energy by 2050

Largest PV-project in Europe (2017) (Fr, Bordeaux, 300 MW, 250 ha)

China: The Longyangxia Dam Solar Park is the largest in the world (850 MW).

... vs. the decentralist way

Some developments:

• 8 mln energy plants in NL (the connected home)
• every surface as solar plants (residential areas, facades,

public infrastructure, public land and water)

• residential heat pumps, wood ovens, small heating grids
• every electric vehicle as energy buffer (the connected car)
• energy trade peer-to-peer
• the neighborhood as energy system
• citizens as co-owner of local energy systems

BIPV

(Building Integrated PV), www.bipvnederland.nl

https://www.ecn.nl/news/item/du tch-solar-design-facade-module-

• ptimises-appearance-yield-and-

sustainability/

How to interpret this plethora of opinions that all sincerely address the road towards a new energy system? A framework to clarify this complicated matter is very welcome!

So:

Energy supply – looking back

large scale, top-down, vertically integrated, (super)specialists, “sleep well, we plan the world, we watch over you and we think for you; this all for just the cost price plus 4%”

Energy transition

• Transitions address problems that are:

complex / broad societal / persistent

• Definition of transitions (Rotmans, 2000)

A structural societal transformation, that is the result of interlinked and interacting developments on economics, culture, technologies, institutions and nature & environment A precondition for transitions is that change takes place at the level of systems. A system being a coherent framework of elements that influence each other in a certain direction.

Multi-level perspective on technological transitions (Geels, Energy Policy 2002)

Examples of ‘regime-thinking’

• Trend towards decentralisation (both energy system as well as

governance), but the regime maintains centralist and large scale thinking:

– Energy Odyssea (25.000 wind turbines Noordzee) – a strong focus on flexibility and period without wind & sun, “so the traditional power plants remain needed for backups”

• Legislation is many years behind, e.g.

– impossibility of inter-citizen trade of energy – double taxation of energy storage

• Illustration: forecasts by IEA, based on energy policies from ‘regime’

actors

IEA: the established (fossil) world

Examples of niches

The Netherlands: local sustainable coops Germany:

• wnership of renewable production

The result of this transition will be a continuously changing energysystem

... where detailed spatial analyses are necessary in an already crowded landscape; analyses for wind ...

... for solar energy (PV and heat), and more.

Thus spatial analyses with multi- stakeholder interactions are here to stay! The next speakers will dive into different aspects of geodesign. Thank you for your attention!