Freshwater Futures Community Group Combined Kaituna/ Maketū and Pongakawa/Waitahanui - Workshop 7
Welcome Tiaki pumautia te wai e hoki mai ai ngā rawa ki a tātau katoa Treat the water wisely and it will return to us
Housekeeping • Fire protocol • Toilets • Meals • Recording and sharing notes • Make yourself at home
Agenda Welcome National and regional update am tea Mitigation bundles and baseline profit lunch Introduction to environmental flow setting in rivers Next steps
Outcomes sought today Feedback on make up of mitigation bundles: • Are they about right? • Have we missed anything significant? Feedback on baseline profit estimates • Are they about right? Improve understanding about scope of work and upcoming discussions
Purpose of this group To help Council implement the National Policy Statement for Freshwater Management: • confirm values, express preferred objectives • provide feedback on limits for freshwater quality and quantity within this Water Management Area • provide input to solutions for managing activities to meet those limits • advise Council in their decision-making for Plan Change 12
Calendar to completion Workshop 5: Aug 17 Workshop 6: September 17 • Toward Objectives • Development Scenarios • Use Values • Use Values (con't) • Management Options & Assessment Criteria Workshop 8: May/June 18 Workshop 7: April 18 • Mitigation Costs • Draft Objectives • Mitigation Bundles • Modelling Results - baseline and development • Flow setting results Workshop 9: Aug/Sep 18 • Modelling Results - mitigation • Limits • Solutions building and assessments 7
National and regional updates
National Update • More NPSFM changes indicated • Minister Parker: • National options to halt declining water quality now – land use intensification regulations? • Allocation options for nitrogen and phosphorous • Swimmable rivers and lakes
Regional Update • Te Maru O Kaituna - river document • RPS Change 3: Rangitāiki River • Plan Change 9: Water Quantity • Draft regional targets for swimmable rivers and lakes (primary contact)
Draft regional targets – part of the bigger picture National targets – 80% of specified rivers and lakes swimmable by 2030 and 90% by 2040
2017 swimming categories
Water quality for swimming map
Draft BOP targets are 95.7% of specified rivers and 85% percent of specified lakes swimmable by 2030. • our region’s contribution to the national targets • reported on MfE’s website on 31 March • already better than the national targets – allows us to continue with work underway and planned based on MfE’s high level modelling of work already underway • regional targets need to be finalised by 31 Dec
Project update
Process In-river Preferred values state Limits and Draft plan Draft management Objectives change options Water quality and Use Values quantity demand Attributes and bands Scenario modelling Flows and levels and assessment
Water quality modelling Sediment Phosphorous E.coli Nitrogen
Modelling results pending May/June Management or Land (and water) use mitigation practices REFERENCE STATE CURRENT PRACTICE CURRENT ‘GOOD MANAGEMENT PRACTICE’ ADDITIONAL FUTURE MITIGATIONS Water quality, flow and resource use estimates
Mitigation bundles & baseline profit
Scenarios: exploring alternative futures Management or Land (and water) use mitigation practices REFERENCE STATE CURRENT PRACTICE CURRENT ‘GOOD MANAGEMENT PRACTICE’ ADDITIONAL FUTURE MITIGATIONS Water quality, flow and resource use estimates
So we’ve already done… Attempted to group into Good Management practice Brainstormed & additional mitigation, and establish current level of mitigation practices implementation (Workshop (Workshop 5) 6 and online survey)
We asked PerrinAg & Landcare Research to • Advise on mitigation bundles based on cost and effectiveness, building on earlier work • Estimate the cost of implementing these mitigation bundles and their effectiveness
Linking up the catchment model and economic analysis Estimation of mitigation costs Mitigation bundle cost estimates (expressed as profit/ha for different land uses) Mitigation Water quality outcome Cost Current -- M1 $ M2 $$ M3 $$$
We are still in an exploratory stage, not coming up with options yet 0. Mitigation Exploratory Current M1 M2 M3 practice stage B. Current land & B0 B1 B2 B3 water use (status quo) Development C. Future land & C0 C1 C2 C3 water use D. Future land & D0 D1 D2 D3 water use Solution-building stage: • Revisit desired water quality objectives, bearing in ? ? mind freshwater values, methods and their costs • Revisit methods to achieve desired water quality ? ? objectives • Drill into a narrower range of scenarios in more detail
Basis for mitigation bundles Effectiveness (reduction in contaminant loss) Nil Low Med High (% reduction in High M3 profit) Med M2 Cost Low M1 Nil Based on previous studies and literature Practices with prohibitive cost and nil or highly uncertain effectiveness not included
Initial assessment
Mitigation bundles M0: existing mitigation practice M1: low barrier to adoption, low cost (<10% of profit), at least low effectiveness in reducing contaminant loss M2: moderate barrier to adoption, medium cost (between 10% and 25% of profit), at least medium effectiveness in reducing contaminant loss M3: high adoption barrier, high cost (>25% profit) but high effectiveness in reducing contaminant loss M4: total land use change
Activity- Mitigation Bundles and costings 1. Please sit in the sector that you’re most involved with 2. We will work through all five sectors in turn starting with dairy pastoral 3. Discuss the Mitigation bundles M1, M2 and M3 for dairy pastoral only in sector groups 4. Note down groups’ comments for later feedback
Activity- Discussion questions 1. Are the mitigations in the right bundles? Why/ Why not? 2. Are there any sector appropriate mitigations missing that should be added? 3. Are any of the listed mitigations out of the question?
Activity: Feedback Share back your groups’ top three changes and why.
Baseline financial modelling
LUNCH
Activity: Water Quantity 1. Each take a dipper of water from the vase. 2. When everyone has taken their water what happens to the stream?
Activity: Water Quantity 3. What should we do if there is not enough water for all users? 4. Can we think together and come up with better options for our community?
Activity: Water Quantity 5. What are the consequences of your options? Think about : Environment, Culture, Economy, and Recreation
Introduction to environmental flow setting
What we’ll cover 1. River flow patterns and why we need to manage minimum flow and allocation 2. How we will work towards setting minimum flows and allocation limits 3. Introduction to EFSAP modelling as a tool that will help us 4. Some terms and concepts
Q5
Flow duration curve • Shows us how much of the time a river has less than a particular flow In the example below, the river is below 2m 3 s -1 about 10% of the time and • below 10m 3 s -1 about 80% of the time
What might different In river values? minimum Ecology, mahinga kai, fishing etc flows and allocation Water users? limits mean Water available for use, reliability for ….
How will we figure this out? EFSAP More detailed studies Engagement Set minimum flows and limits Methods to achieve
What is EFSAP? E nvironmental Estimates how: • Instream physical F low habitat for selected species changes with S trategic different water quantity limits. A llocation • Reliability of supply changes with different P latform water quantity limits.
Indicator species Rangitāiki WMA Longfin Eels, Koaro, Rainbow trout
Weighted Usable Area
Example output % Reliability at minimum flow – how often will water takes be restricted if minimum flow is x?
Example output % Habitat change for different species at a particular minimum flow
Scenario Example What minimum flow and allocation limits would achieve: ≤15% median loss of habitat ≥ 95% reliability at minimum flow and
Reliability 10 Allocation (%MALF) 70 Minimum Flow (% MALF) 10 70
Habitat protection 10 Allocation (%MALF) 70 Minimum Flow (% MALF) 10 70
Combined Objectives 10 Allocation (%MALF) 70 Minimum Flow (% MALF) 10 70
How well do you now feel you understand … 1. River flow patterns and why we need to manage minimum flow and allocation 2. How we will work towards setting minimum flows and allocation limits 3. What EFSAP modelling is and how it will help us 4. Terms and concepts • minimum flow, allocation limit, reliability, flow duration curve, habitat protection level
Feedback… any key changes
What’s next?
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