CLIMATE SMART LAND USE Obstacles and opportunities for mitigation and adaptation Saskia Visser, Alterra, Wageningen UR; Climate KIC meeting, Utrecht, June, 2015
Outline Trends and challenges E missions from agriculture, their origin Variance of productivity and emissions in EU; opportunity for efficiency gains ? Climate change; challenges and opportunities M itigation efforts and adaptation opportunities; some examples The Climate Kic solution: The CSA Booster
Trends (selected) ..... Agriculture to meet twin challenge of feeding more people with higher demand for meat and high-calorie diets and simultaneously minimize its global environmental impacts ● Search for higher contribution from biomass to renewable energy with low ecosystem impact ● More and more critical attitudes among consumers ● Shifts in agro-ecosystems induced by climate change Need for changes in agriculture and our food system
Challenges; towards Climate Smart Land Use Define and implement action before problems have started to occur or surface - need for strong storytelling and valid(ated) projections Promote and finance actions on emission reduction schemes with economic benefit and competitive advantages and refrain from legislative actions - sticks and carrots discussion Food is both a local and global production platform. When is local better and how do we recognize that? Know what we eat: How much do we buy and eat? And waste and recycle? What do we buy and eat? Are we aware of the impact?
Sources of GHG from agriculture
Emissions per product: major differences! Plant food Animal food Lesschen et al., 2013
On variability: comparison of pilot farms in 10 EU countries – no single solution/golden bullet Annual milk production in 2011 per cow and ha 35000 BF 30000 B Milk production in kg/ha W FB 25000 FL 20000 FN 15000 GE 10000 IN IR 5000 0 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 Milk production in kg/cow Dairyman project 2009-2013
10 EU MSs & Pilot farms - GHG emissions Total GHG per ha Total GHG per ton milk 25000 1400 Total GHG per ton milk (kg CO2-eq) Total GHG per ha (kg CO2-eq) 1200 20000 1000 15000 800 600 10000 400 5000 200 0 0 BF BW FB FL FN GE NI IR LU NL Dairyman project 2009-2013
Climate Challenges and opportunities
Climate change prospects Source: Climate change projections for Europe based on an ensemble of 10 regional climate model simulations provided by the EURO-CORDEX initiative
Climate change (will) affect(s) livestock sector IPCC AR5: “High temperature and air humidity during breeding increased cattle mortality risk by 60% in Italy (Crescio et al., 2010)”. “ Climate change may adversely affect dairy production in Southern Europe because of heat stress in lactating cows [medium confidence] [23.4.2]’.
Mean relative changes in water-limited crop yield simulated by the ClimateCrop model for the 2050s compared with 1961 – 1990 for 12 different climate models projections under the A1B emission scenario
Water availability for irrigation
Mitigation (and adaptation options)
Land use and change: adaptation & mitigation
GHG balance in peat meadow area RIVM: GJ vd Born et al. 2003
UNEP study “ Drawing down N 2 O” Oenema O et al. (2014) Reducing Nitrous Oxide Emissions from the Global Food System (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability)
Review possible strategies for less GHG Food chain analysis Scenario analysis: using the top-down approach model of Eric Davidson (lead author of Chapter 3 of the UNEP study)
5R-strategy to increase resource use efficiency Incentives & technologies for 1. Reduce losses, from the whole food chain 2. Reuse and recycle nutrient elements 3. Reduce and replace inputs, where possible 4. Recovery and recycle elements from wastes 5. Redefining systems, where needed Sutton et al., 2013
Mitigation strategies work: N 2 O emissions in 2030 and 2050 from 5 coherent packages of measures Scenario 2030 2050 Business as usual (BAU) 6.4 7.5 1. Improved Crop production 5.7 6.3 2. (1) + Improved animal production 5.4 5.6 3. (1,2) + Improved manure mngmt 5.0 4.8 4. (1,2,3) + Improved food utilization 4.6 4.1 5. (1,2,3,4) + Less animal protein 4.1 3.3 Oenema O et al. (2014) Reducing Nitrous Oxide Emissions from the Global Food System (submitted to Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability)
PICCMAT: strong EU regional differences Denmark 0.060 Mitigation potential (% of SOC stock) 0.050 0.040 0.030 Poland 0.060 0.020 Mitigation potential (% of SOC stock) 0.050 0.010 Scotland 0.040 0.060 0.000 Mitigation potential (% of SOC stock) CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG 0.050 0.030 0.040 0.020 0.030 0.010 0.020 0.000 0.010 CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG 0.000 -0.010 CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG Bulgaria Spain 0.060 Mitigation potential (% of SOC stock) 0.060 Mitigation potential (% of SOC stock) 0.050 0.050 0.040 0.040 0.030 0.030 0.020 0.020 0.010 Italy 0.010 0.060 Mitigation potential (% of SOC stock) 0.000 0.000 CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG 0.050 CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG 0.040 0.030 0.020 0.010 0.000 CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG
Climate change and adaptation Impact depends on vulnerability of nature and agricultural (soil and water) systems Technological solutions (soilless food, less fossil energy, biobased and bioenergy) are not always acceptable to the public
Barriers for adoption of CSA Solutions?
Climate-Smart Agriculture Booster A European business solution to climate change CSA Booster Team - March 2015
What does CSA Booster do? Connecting providers and users of CSA solutions to European networks and value chains Providing science-based quality stamps and certification Focus on dairy/meat and horticultural fruit sectors Starting in the Netherlands, France, UK, Switzerland and Italy 25
For whom? Food industries : secure supply of agricultural products; reducing their climate impact on the food value chain Farmer associations and agri-cooperatives interested to learn from experiences in other European countries Technology and service providers: finding customers and investors in Europe; demonstration proof Policy makers: stakeholder input for policy design, policy assessment 26
Our Service Modules 1. CSA Solution Hub • European wide Solution Broker for unique portfolio of innovative CSA solutions. 2. CSA Impact Assessment and Labelling • Quantification and verification of the impact of CSA solutions 3. CSA Policy Hub • Aids policymakers to implement Rural Development Plans in context of CAP and provide advice to solution providers and users. 4. CSA Business Developer and Market Connection Hub • Supports solution developers to develop business models, provides access to CSA Partner Network and investors. 5. CSA Education, Training & Co-creation Forum • Provides education, support and training to farmers/end-users and enables feedback to solution providers. 6. CSA Supply Chain & Circular Economy Developer • Seeks alternative supply chain designs to increase climate benefits both upstream and downstream. 27
Where to find the CSA Booster? www.csabooster.eu Video: http://www.csabooster.eu/csa-booster-video 28
Interested??? What is your CSA SOLUTION?? Join the CSA Booster Network!
Broad Science Conclusions Climate change calls for a productive, resilient agricultural sector with minimal GHG emissions Regional variance may offer great opportunity for efficiency gains Region specific solutions work Mitigation efforts strategy preferred over individual measures Innovative technological solutions are available, yet only partly used Investments needed in education, training, demonstration and development of site- and region specific technologies
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