Climate Information Climate Information Applied in China Applied - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Climate Information Climate Information Applied in China Applied in China Yuping Yan Yan Yuping Beijing Climate Center, CMA Beijing Climate Center, CMA History History Beijing Climate Centre (BCC) was established in was established
Yuping Yuping Yan Yan Beijing Climate Center, CMA Beijing Climate Center, CMA
Beijing Climate Centre (BCC) was established in was established in 2003 2003
BCC simply based on the National Climate Centre (NCC) National Climate Centre (NCC), China , China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Meteorological Administration (CMA)
Structure and Structure and Responsibilities Responsibilities
Structure and Structure and Responsibilities Responsibilities
as significant climate events (e.g.ENSO)
Climate System Monitoring Bulletins ENSO Report East Asian Monsoon Monitoring Report Snow cover monitoring (digital)
Climate system monitoring
Sea ice cover Drought
Sea –surface temperature
Sea-land surface-air monitoring network Soil moisture
Global Climate Extreme Events Monitoring
喀什 和田 库尔勒 乌鲁木齐 哈密 阿勒泰 伊宁 酒泉 格尔木 西宁 兰州 铜川 额济纳旗 呼和浩特 太原 延安 西安 安康 郑州 武汉 恩施 芷江 贵阳 桂林 南宁 广州 赣州 厦门 福州台北 温州 杭州 上海 南京 合肥 南昌 徐州 青岛 济南 天津 石家庄 北京 大连 赤峰 沈阳 长春 哈尔滨 嫩江 海拉尔 漠河 长沙 重庆 成都 西昌 甘孜 昆明 保山 江城
拉萨
延吉 海口
图 例
强沙尘暴 沙 尘 暴 扬 沙
南海诸岛
Distribution of Dust Storms in March, 2002
3/18/17:00～3/20/08:00
Lanzhou 2002/3/19 Bejing 2002/3/20 Seoul 2002/3/22
Structure and Structure and Responsibilities Responsibilities
assessments at monthly, seasonal and inter- annual time scales, particularly in East Asia Products:
BCC Climate Model Products Drought Watch
Monthly Dynamic Extended Regional Forecast Model (DERF) CGCM and RegCM produce 10 day, monthly, seasonal, annual and inter-annual climate prediction
BCC Dynamic Model System for short- term Climate Prediction
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
PredPeriod
SIF
Seasonal to inter-annual prediction (updated monthly)
Anomaly Percentage Prediction of average temperature and precipitation
2001年夏季（6～8月） 降水量距平百分率图
1999 2000 2001 Prediction (up) and observation (bottom) of the summer precipitation anomaly percentage in 1999, 2000 and 2001 over China
Structure and Structure and Responsibilities Responsibilities
development of regional climate scenarios and response strategy options
communication and computing networks for data collection and exchange
evaluation, processing, detection and issue etc.
import forecasting products and methods in different time scales.
Climate Information Application
assessment
Exploitations
Monthly distribution of PDSI and Palmer Indices and variation of drought area Relative soil moisture in 10cm and 20cm depth Daily distribution of drought and flood index Drought/Flood early warning and impact assessment
Drought/Flood distribution in China
Daily drought area monitoring over China 20cm soil relative moisture
Drought and Flood distribution over China Drought monitoring by satellite over China
全国历年干旱面积与干旱指数比较
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999
年份
干旱面积 （万公顷）
干旱指数
受旱面积 干旱指数 成灾面积
Drought index
Drought area assessed by drought Index
Afftected area Drought area
Comparison of drought area and drought index
yr
Impact assessment of extreme drought event
Global drought monitor D r
g h t m
i t
i n E u r a s i a n r e g i
Products: China Droughts and Floods Bulletin Report of abnormal climate event analysis Drought Watch
Ministry of Water Resources, P.R. China Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Ministry of Agriculture, P.R.China Ministry of Civil Affairs of P.R. China Government, P.R. China
Drought Monitoring and Warning program was shown on CCTV since July of 2004.
Framework of hydrological model assessment system
History and Real Climate data Climate Scenarios in future Climate Prediction
Grided Temp. and Prec. 30* 30 Km
Four hydrological models
1Han and Gan 2 Haihe River 3Huaihe River 4Yellow River (middle reaches) Outputs 1．Grided monthly runoff 2．Monthly runoff at
stations 3．Initial Parameters for next month Input Output Post process Service
Water Resource Management
Study areas 730 meteorological stations in China Hydrological stations Monthly mean temperature and precipitation Monthly runoff
50000 52000 54000 56000 58000 60000 62000 64000 66000 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 年份 年 降 水 资 源 量 （ 亿 立 方 米 ）
异常丰水
丰水
枯水 异常枯水
Estimation of annual precipitation resources by statistics method Prediction of monthly runoff anomalies in the four river basins of China by model Average of availability of air water resources in July over China
Simulated summer runoff anomaly (%) in Huaihe River basin during 1961- 2004 (Serious flood occurred in 1991 and 2003)
1991 2003
50 100 150 200 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 Month r u n o f f a n o m a l y ( % )
Average of availability of air water resources in July over China
.
Climate change impact on annual runoff of Huaihe River during 2011-2040
Change percentage of monthly and annual runoff under climate change scenarios
and Gan Jiang basins (b).
(a) Han Jiang
20 40 60 80 100 ECHAM4(2021-2050年) ECHAM4(2051-2080年) HadCM2(2021-2050年) HadCM2(2051-2080年) C h a n g e o f m o n t h l y r u n o f f ( % )
(b) Gan Jiang
20 40 60 80 100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 annual 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 annual 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 annual 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 annaul
Change of monthly runoff(%)
Spatial distribution of annual and seasonal precipitation changes from 1956 to 2004 over East Route of S-N Water Transfer Project
Annual Pr
Thus the precipitation during the flood season plays the most important role in East Route
Annual mean temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) changes
(left) and B2 (right) (unit: ℃, %) (relative to 1961~1990)
A2 DTs AOGCM7 A2 DPr AOGCM7 B2 DTs AOGCM7 B2 DPr AOGCM7
0.3 0.9
6%
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 年 产 量 （ 公 斤 /亩 ） 实测值 模拟值
Comparison of simulated yield to real yield of winter wheat over North of China
500 1000 1500 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
年 份 气候产量（公斤/公顷）
实际气候产量 模拟气候产量
Comparison of simulated yield to real yield of double cropping rice over Changde area
Agriculture
Example of interface of crop growth Assessment Model system double cropping rice
Assessment to growth status of double cropping rice during different growth development period in 2002 compare with normal situation.
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 1 / 1 9 8 7 7 / 1 9 8 7 1 / 1 9 8 8 7 / 1 9 8 8 1 / 1 9 8 9 7 / 1 9 8 9 1 / 1 9 9 7 / 1 9 9 1 / 1 9 9 1 7 / 1 9 9 1 1 / 1 9 9 2 7 / 1 9 9 2 1 / 1 9 9 3 7 / 1 9 9 3 Month/Year incidence of a disease× 10
Fitting-curve of incidence rate of cerebral haemorrhage in Beijing
0.1 0.2 0.3 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
The correlation coefficient of SARS cases and last 3-13 day highest air temperature in Hong Kong Human Health
Comfort Indices in China
5 10 15 20 25 哈尔滨 乌鲁木齐 西宁 兰州 呼和浩特 银川 石家庄 长春 沈阳 北京 天津 济南 西安 郑州
The change of heating energy consumption under 1℃ change in temperature (%)
Energy Consumption and Demand
heating energy consumption ～ temperature anomaly Blue ~more energy demand Red ~ less energy demand
Transportation
Distribution of Air Pollution Potential Indices (API) in China
Atmospheric and eco- Environment
Concentration of MP10 over China mainland by Air Quality
Numerical Prediction Model
A specialized center, the Center for Wind and Solar Energy Resources Assessment has been set up to lead CMA’s activities related to climate resources, with the focus on wind energy.
Wind energy Solar energy
Climate Resource Exploitations
The distribution of w ind averaged from 1 9 5 8 to 2 0 0 3 at 5 0 m above the ground level w ith 5 km resolution in the part of Xinjiang in China.
China w ind m ap at 8 0 m above the ground level w ith 5 km resolution.
National Construction Project
Three Gorge
The distribution of summer precipitation in Danjiangkou Reservoir and its higher reaches during 2050~2059
SRES-A2 SRES-B2
Yellow River Yangtze River Hanshui River
Danjiangkou Reservoir
Xi’an Zhengzhou Wuhan Chongqing Yellow River Yangtze River Hanshui River
Danjiangkou Reservoir
Xi’an Zhengzhou Wuhan Chongqing
South-North Diversion Project
Annual mean Temperature changes over Tibet in 21st century (unit: ℃) The changes of maximum temperature in summer for each stations alone the Tibet railway in 21st century (unit: ℃)