Climate Information Climate Information Applied in China Applied - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Information Climate Information Applied in China Applied in China Yuping Yan Yan Yuping Beijing Climate Center, CMA Beijing Climate Center, CMA

History History • Beijing Climate Centre (BCC) was established in was established in 2003 2003 • Beijing Climate Centre (BCC) • BCC simply based on the National Climate Centre (NCC) National Climate Centre (NCC), China , China • BCC simply based on the Meteorological Administration (CMA) Meteorological Administration (CMA)

Structure and Structure and Responsibilities Responsibilities

Structure and Structure and Responsibilities Responsibilities • To monitor and diagnose global atmospheric and oceanic conditions, especially in East Asia, as well as significant climate events (e.g.ENSO) • Products: Climate System Monitoring Bulletins ENSO Report East Asian Monsoon Monitoring Report Snow cover monitoring (digital)

Climate system monitoring Sea ice cover Soil moisture Sea-land surface-air monitoring network Drought Sea –surface temperature

Global Climate Extreme Events Monitoring

Distribution of Dust Storms in March, 2002 漠河 3/18/17:00 ～ 3/20/08:00 Lanzhou 2002/3/19 嫩江 阿勒泰 海拉 尔 伊宁 哈 尔 滨 喀什 乌鲁木齐 长春 延吉 库尔勒 哈密 和田 沈阳 赤峰 额济纳旗 大 连 酒泉 呼和浩特 北京 天津 格 尔木 铜川 太原 石家庄 Bejing 2002/3/20 西宁 济南 延安 青 岛 兰州 郑州 徐州 西安 上海 合肥 安康 南京 拉 萨 甘孜 杭州 武 汉 恩施 成都 重 庆 温州 南昌 西昌 长沙 芷江 例 福州台北 图 贵阳 保山 赣州 昆明 桂林 厦 门 强沙 尘暴 Seoul 2002/3/22 江城 广州 南宁 沙 尘 暴 扬 沙 海口 南海 诸岛

Structure and Structure and Responsibilities Responsibilities • To provide global climate predictions and impact assessments at monthly, seasonal and inter- annual time scales, particularly in East Asia Products: BCC Climate Model Products Drought Watch

BCC Dynamic Model System for short- term Climate Prediction Monthly Dynamic Extended Regional Forecast Model (DERF) CGCM and RegCM produce 10 day, monthly, seasonal, annual and inter-annual climate prediction

PredPeriod Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan feb Mar Apr May Jun SIF Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Seasonal to inter-annual prediction (updated monthly) Anomaly Percentage Prediction of average temperature and precipitation

1999 2000 2001 2001年夏季（6～8月） 降水量距平百分率图 Prediction (up) and observation (bottom) of the summer precipitation anomaly percentage in 1999, 2000 and 2001 over China

Structure and Structure and Responsibilities Responsibilities • To carry out research on global and regional climate change, detection development of regional climate scenarios and response strategy options • To provide climate data base and archiving services • To strengthen collaborations between NMHSs on related observation, communication and computing networks for data collection and exchange • To provide relevant climate product services such as interpretation, evaluation, processing, detection and issue etc. • To provide training of end-users and NMHS staff on the application and import forecasting products and methods in different time scales.

Climate Information Application • Drought/Flood Early warning and impact assessment • Water Resource Management • Agriculture • Human Health • Energy consumption and demand • Transportation • Atmospheric Environment • Climate resource (esp. Wind Energy Resource) Exploitations • National Construction Project

Drought/Flood early warning and impact assessment Daily distribution of drought and flood index Monthly distribution of PDSI and Palmer Indices and variation of drought area Relative soil moisture in 10cm and 20cm depth

Drought/Flood distribution in China 20cm soil relative moisture over China Drought and Flood Drought monitoring by Daily drought area distribution over China satellite over China monitoring over China

Comparison of drought area and drought index 全国历年干旱面积与干旱指数比较 5000 -1.5 yr 4000 （万公顷） -1 干旱面积 干旱指数 3000 Drought area Drought index Afftected area 2000 -0.5 1000 0 0 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 年份 受旱面积 干旱指数 成灾面积 Impact assessment of extreme drought event Drought area assessed on North of China by drought Index

Global drought monitor n i r o t i n o m t h g n u o o i r g D e r n a i s a r u E

Products: China Droughts and Floods Bulletin Report of abnormal climate event analysis Drought Watch Government, P.R. China Ministry of Water Resources, P.R. China Ministry of Agriculture, P.R.China Ministry of Civil Affairs of P.R. China Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters

Drought Monitoring and Warning program was shown on CCTV since July of 2004.

Water Resource Management Outputs History and Real Climate Four 1 ． Grided data hydrological monthly models Output Grided runoff Input Temp. 2 ． Monthly 1Han and Gan and Climate Post runoff at Prec. 2 Haihe River Prediction process outlet 3Huaihe River 30* 30 stations 4Yellow River Km 3 ． Initial (middle Parameters Climate reaches) for next Scenarios in month Service future Framework of hydrological model assessment system

Study areas 730 meteorological stations in China Hydrological stations Monthly mean temperature and precipitation Monthly runoff of history, real time and prediction

66000 64000 异常丰水 62000 Estimation of annual （ 年 丰水 60000 precipitation resources by 亿 降 立 水 58000 statistics method 方 资 米 源 56000 ） 量 枯水 54000 异常枯水 52000 50000 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 年份 Average of availability of air water resources in July over China Prediction of monthly runoff anomalies in the four river basins of China by model

200 1991 2003 150 a n o m a l y ( % ) 100 r u n o f f 50 0 -50 Month -100 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 Simulated summer runoff anomaly (%) in Huaihe River basin during 1961- 2004 (Serious flood occurred in 1991 and 2003) Average of availability of air water resources in July over China

. Climate change impact on annual runoff of Huaihe River during 2011-2040

ECHAM4(2021-2050年) ECHAM4(2051-2080年) HadCM2(2021-2050年) HadCM2(2051-2080年) 100 C h a n g e o f m o n t h l y 80 (a) Han Jiang 60 r u n o f f ( % ) 40 20 0 -20 -40 100 Change of monthly (b) Gan Jiang 80 60 runoff(%) 40 20 0 -20 -40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 annual 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 annual 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 annual 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 annaul Change percentage of monthly and annual runoff under climate change scenarios of ECHAM4 and HadCM2 during 2021-2050 and 2051-2080 in Han Jiang (a) and Gan Jiang basins (b).

Spatial distribution of annual and seasonal precipitation changes from 1956 to 2004 over East Route of S-N Water Transfer Project Annual Pr Thus the precipitation during the flood season plays the most important role in East Route

Annual mean temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) changes over East Route in year 2015 as projected by AOGCM7 with SRES A2 (left) and B2 (right) (unit: ℃ , %) (relative to 1961~1990) A2 DTs AOGCM7 B2 DTs AOGCM7 0.9 0.3 B2 DPr AOGCM7 A2 DPr AOGCM7 -3% 6%

Agriculture 350 300 ） /亩 250 斤 200 实测值 公 模拟值 150 （ Comparison of simulated 量 100 产 yield to real yield of winter 50 0 wheat over North of China 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 年 实际气候产量 模拟气候产量 1500 Comparison of 1000 气候产量（公斤/公顷） simulated yield to 500 real yield of 0 double cropping 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 -500 rice over Changde area -1000 年 份 -1500

Assessment to growth status of double cropping rice during different growth development period in 2002 compare with normal situation. Example of interface of crop growth Assessment Model system double cropping rice

25 - 5 23 incidence of a disease× 10 21 19 17 Human 15 13 Health 11 Fitting-curve of incidence rate of 9 cerebral haemorrhage in Beijing 7 5 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 0.3 Month/Year The correlation 0.2 coefficient of SARS 0.1 cases and last 3-13 0 day highest air -0.1 temperature in Hong -0.2 Kong -0.3 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3

Comfort Indices in China