Climate Data Needed for Health Risk Assessment, Prediction & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring-Assessment-Prediction for Asia in 2020 (FOCRAII 2020) 7th May 2020 Climate Data Needed for Health Risk Assessment, Prediction & Planning Dr LIU Qiyong Chief Scientist for Vector-Borne Disease in
Chief Scientist for Vector-Borne Disease in China CDC Chief Scientist for Health and Climate Change in China National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC)
The Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring-Assessment-Prediction for Asia in 2020 (FOCRAII 2020)
7th May 2020
Public Health Emergency Center Public Health Surveillance and Information Services Management of 12320 Health Hotline Policy Research and Health Communication Office for Epidemiology
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China CDC
Linked Units: Center for Endemic Disease Control Center for STD Control Center for Leprosy Control Clinical Center for TB Prevention and Control Base for Plague & Brucellosis Control and Prevention Center for Child and Adolescent Health Center for Mental Health Center for Senior Health
Offices of International Cooperation, Science & Technology Lab Management, Education & Training, Office of Health Standards Administration & Logistics Management Department
TB Control & Prevention
Infectious Diseases
Division of Infectious Diseases
Communicable Disease Viral Disease Parasitic Diseases Immunization Program AIDS/STD
Public Health
Environmental Health Occupational Health Radiological Protection Rural Water
Public Health Management
Tobacco Control
Non-communicable Diseases
National Center for NCD Nutrition and Health
Women & Children’s Health
Office for NCD
Center for Global Public Health
Total staff: 2120 (2017)
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Beijing Normal Beijing Normal University University Institute of Institute of Geographical Science Geographical Science and Natural Resources and Natural Resources Research,CAS Research,CAS Institute of Institute of Microbiology Chinese Microbiology Chinese Academy of Science Academy of Science National Climate National Climate Center Center Shandong Shandong University University China CDC China CDC
Climate Population Diseases Environment Geography
Fundamental studies
Data & Technology integration Modeling establishment
Practical application Retrospective studies Prospective studies Large-scale analysis Small-scale analysis Adaptation strategies Predicting studies Mechanism Indentifying characteristics
Functions and demands of health
Database Shared platform
Project 2：Extreme weather
events impacts on population health
Project 1：Climate (mean)
change impacts on human health
Project 3： Identification of
vulnerable population & risk regions
Project 4： Response and
adaptation to climate- sensitive diseases in different regions
Understanding process and mechanism
5 Adaptive mechanism Climate sensitive diseases 1 Regional discrepancy 4
Vulnerable population
2 Burden
Disease 3
Dengue Dengue 广东、浙江、山东
Heat wave 江苏(南京)、广东(深 圳)、黑龙江(哈尔滨)、山东、西藏、 海南、浙江(宁波)、安徽、湖北、 湖南、重庆 Cold snap 江苏(南京)、广东(深 圳)、黑龙江(哈尔滨)、山东、湖南、 安徽 Flo lood 安徽、广西、湖南、辽宁、 四川、浙江、甘肃 Cyclone 广州、宁德、温州、海 南、山东、辽宁、江苏 Drought 湖南、河北、吉林、云南、 青海 Sand storm 甘肃、内蒙、宁夏 全国 手足口 安徽省 痢疾、甲肝、流感、疟疾
Blue Blue：since 2012 since 2012 Red Red：since 2014 since 2014
Most of them unpublished
Cases Deaths space
Public catalog Organization catalog
Weather, disease, population, environment, media
analyz e Integration of multi-source data sets Dynamic surveillance of data sets Ecological environment surveillance
catalog
publish Meteorological
stations Vectors surveillance Diseases report & surveillance
Maintenance
catalog Maintenance
catalog Maintenance
Data integration tools Spatial- temporal analysis tools
sharing among subjects, and dynamic academic exchange.
Notifiable infectious diseases Cause-of-death relevant data
Research and Development of Key Biosafety Technology: Project“Integration Technology Research on National Biosafety Monitoring Network system”- Subject“ Research and Application of National important Monitoring data Integration Technology”
Infectious Disease Pathogenic microorganism menu Gene National vector data Invasive animal Climatic data, Environmental data, Population, GDP Invasive vegetation Time Space Biology Metadata introduction Original data query and download Data integration query and visualization
Database Construction Data Integration Design Data Integration Platform construction
Dengue fever early warning system
Query condition Query result(Sheet) Query result(Map)
成蚊 Adult 登革热病例 Dengue case 带毒蚊虫 Virus-carrying mosquito 外潜伏期 8-10 10天 External incubation period 8-10 days 内潜伏期 3-14 14天 Incubation period 3-14 days 登革热病例 Dengue case 卵 Egg 幼虫 Larvae 蛹 Pupae
Dengue fever incidence, climate change and mosquito density
Lei Xu et al. PNAS 2017
全球气候变化可能与 我国登革热从沿海扩 散到内陆有关 Climate push the dengue to northwestern China
Contours were drawn based on the trend surface, which presented the predicted dengue invasive year. The slope
the reciprocal spread speed of dengue in China from the year 1978 to 2016. Red points indicate the location of counties with cases of dengue
spreading pattern of Trend surface analysis, the dengue extend from coastal region into inner land of China, which may link with the global climate change XU,Lei., et al
expanded significantly to northward and the risk population will increased markedly under all RCP climate scenarios.
human population at high risk
today (in 142 counties) to 277 million (in 344 counties) in the 2050s, and 490 million (in 456 counties) by the 2100s under RCP8.5.
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Time series Poisson model showed that imported cases in the previous month, minimum temperature in the previous month and accumulative precipitation with three month lags could project the dengue outbreaks occurred in 2013 and 2014 after controlling the autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend.
气候变化对人类健康的影响与适应机制研究项目 登革热决策支持系统
Early warning and outbreak risk management:
MSA, Mos-prevention + breeding sites management (+ adulticiding) to reduce mosquito ＜ the threshold, to minimize the outbreak risk Outbreak Response
Outbreak response：Early detection，MSA, Mos-prevention
+ breeding sites management + adulticiding to reduce mosquito abundance ＜ the threshold, case management, to minimize the secondary and fatal cases
EW&RM
cases Day Early detection & alert Mosquito S&C, CM
＜5：Transmission blocked ≥ 5：Sustained transmission ≥ 10：Outbreak ≥ 20：Regional outbreak
21 09:19 The number of cases that can be reduced