Climate Change Research in Northeastern US and Eastern Canadian - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SLIDE 1

Climate Change Research in Northeastern US and Eastern Canadian Forest Ecosystems

Lindsey Rustad USDA Forest Service October 26, 2005, Albany New York

SLIDE 2

Overview

• Set the Stage – Climate Change
• Overview of Regional Research
• A New Synthesis and Outreach Project

SLIDE 3

SLIDE 4

Keeling Curve

SLIDE 5

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Over the Last 1000 Years

SLIDE 6

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide over the last 160,000 years and the next 100 years

Time (thousands of years) 160 120 80 40 Now 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 CO2 in 2100 (with business as usual) Lowest possible CO2 stabilisation level by 2100 CO2 now CO2 concentration (ppmv)

SLIDE 7

The Greenhouse Effect

Solar radiation

CO2

SLIDE 8

Time (thousands of years) 160 120 80 40 Now –10 10 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Temperature in 100 yeas Temperature difference from now °C CO2 concentration (ppmv) CO2 in 100 years

Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 160,000 years

SLIDE 9

Climate has changed globally….

0.6oC increase in global mean temperature Change in magnitude and distribution of precipitation

(IPCC, 2001)

SLIDE 10

Climate has changed regionally…

0.4oC increase in mean annual temperature 4 - 20% increase in mean annual precipitation Increased variability in both temperature and precipitation

(NERA, 2001)

SLIDE 11

Indicators of Climate Change

(Tom Huntington et al.)

SLIDE 12

Indicators of Climate Change

(Tom Huntington et al.)

7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Annua Average Heating Degree Days (>65 F) Average HDD 9-yr moving avg HDD Average of 8 Sites in ME, USHCN Data Sum of Days*degrees<65 F

ACADIA NATIONAL PARK EASTPORT FARMINGTON GARDINER HOULTON 5N LEWISTON ORONO PORTLAND WSFO AP

8 Sites in ME

• Heating Degree Days

SLIDE 13

• Heating Degree Days
• Mean Annual Sea

Surface Temperature, Boothbay Harbor, Me

Indicators of Climate Change

(Tom Huntington et al.)

• Boothbay Harbor, Me

6 7 8 9 10 11 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature (ÞC)

Boothbay Harbor, ME

SLIDE 14

• Heating Degree Days
• Mean Annual Sea

Surface Temperature, Boothbay Harbor, ME

• Water Temperature at

the Wild River, ME

Indicators of Climate Change

(Tom Huntington et al.)

• Boothbay Harbor, Me

Wild River, ME

SLIDE 15

• Heating Degree Days
• Mean Annual Sea

Surface Temperature, Boothbay Harbor, ME

• Water Temperature at

the Wild River, ME

• Ice Thickness,

Piscataquis River, ME

Indicators of Climate Change

(Tom Huntington et al.)

• Boothbay Harbor, Me

Piscataquis River, ME

SLIDE 16

• Heating Degree Days
• Mean Annual Sea

Surface Temperature, Boothbay Harbor, ME

• Water Temperature at

the Wild River, ME

• Ice Thickness,

Piscataquis River, ME

• Day of first bloom,

Lilac, NE USA

Indicators of Climate Change

(Tom Huntington et al.)

• Boothbay Harbor, Me

Lilac Phenology

SLIDE 17

Clean Air/Cool Plant

SLIDE 18

Climate will continue to change globally….

SLIDE 19

Climate will continue to change globally….

1.4 to 5.8 oC increase in mean annual temperature

(IPCC, 2001)

SLIDE 20

Climate will continue to change globally….

1.4 to 5.8 oC increase in mean annual temperature Change in quantity and distribution of precipitation

(IPCC, 2001)

SLIDE 21

Climate will continue to change globally….

1.4 to 5.8 oC increase in mean annual temperature Change in quantity and distribution of precipitation Increased frequency and magnitude of severe weather events including droughts, floods, and HURRICANES!

(IPCC, 2001)

SLIDE 22

Climate will continue to change regionally….

3.1 to 5.3oC increase in mean annual temperature 10-30% increase in precipitation Increased frequency of drought (Canadian Model) Greater intra- and inter- annual climate variability

(NERA, 2001)

SLIDE 23

So what?

SLIDE 24

So what?

Temperature and moisture are two of the fundamental drivers of all chemical and biological processes

SLIDE 25

The Research

• Experimental Manipulations
• Gradients
• Biological Observations
• Modeling

SLIDE 26

Experimental Manipulations

# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # MGS # Huntington Wildlife Forest # Harvard Forest # Howland Forest # MEGS # Ecosystem warming sites

Rustad, L.E., J.M.Melillo, M.J. Mitchell, I. J. Fernandez, P. A. Steudler, and

• P. J. McHale. 2000. Effects of soil warming on C and N cycling in Northern

U.S. forest soils. In: Mickler, R., R. Birdsey, and J. Hom (eds.).pp.357-381. Responses of Northern U.S. Forests to Environmental Change. Springer- Verlag New York Inc.

Regional Synthesis

• Temperature

SLIDE 27

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature

# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # MGS # Huntington Wildlife Forest # Harvard Forest # Howland Forest # MEGS # Ecosystem warming sites # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # Toolik Lake (2 sites) # MN Peats # BOREAS # MGS # TERA # Ecocells # Jasper Ridge # RMBL # Tallgrass Prairie (2 sites) # Huntington Wildlife Forest # Harvard Forest # Howland Forest # MEGS # Great Dun Fell # Shortgrass Steppe (2 sites) # ORNL (3 sites) # Rio Mayo # Ny Alesund # Clocaenog (VULCAN) # BCCIL # Wytham # Abisko (4 sites) # Flakaliden # CLIMEX # Mols (VULCAN) # Kiskun Sag (VULCAN) # Garraf (VULCAN) # Capo Caccia (VULCAN) # Oldebroek (VULCAN) # McMurdo Dry Valleys # Inner Mongolia Grassland # Ecosystem warming sites

Rustad, L.E., J. Campbell, G.M. Marion, R.J. Norby, M.J. Mitchell, A.E. Hartley, J. H.C. Cornelissen, J. Gurevitch, GCTE-NEWS. 2001. A Meta- analysis of the response of soil respiration, net N mineralization, and aboveground plant growth to experimental ecosystem warming. Oecologia 126: 543-562.

SLIDE 28

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature

# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # MGS # Huntington Wildlife Forest # Harvard Forest # Howland Forest # MEGS # Ecosystem warming sites # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # Toolik Lake (2 sites) # MN Peats # BOREAS # MGS # TERA # Ecocells # Jasper Ridge # RMBL # Tallgrass Prairie (2 sites) # Huntington Wildlife Forest # Harvard Forest # Howland Forest # MEGS # Great Dun Fell # Shortgrass Steppe (2 sites) # ORNL (3 sites) # Rio Mayo # Ny Alesund # Clocaenog (VULCAN) # BCCIL # Wytham # Abisko (4 sites) # Flakaliden # CLIMEX # Mols (VULCAN) # Kiskun Sag (VULCAN) # Garraf (VULCAN) # Capo Caccia (VULCAN) # Oldebroek (VULCAN) # McMurdo Dry Valleys # Inner Mongolia Grassland # Ecosystem warming sites # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ ÑÑ Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N # Toolik Lake (2 sites) # MN Peats # BOREAS # MGS # TERA # Ecocells # Jasper Ridge # RMBL # Tallgrass Prairie (2 sites) # Huntington Wildlife Forest # Harvard Forest # Howland Forest # MEGS # Great Dun Fell # Shortgrass Steppe (2 sites) # ORNL (3 sites) # Rio Mayo # Ny Alesund # Clocaenog (VULCAN) # BCCIL # Wytham # Abisko (4 sites) # Flakaliden # CLIMEX # Mols (VULCAN) # Kiskun Sag (VULCAN) # Garraf (VULCAN) # Capo Caccia (VULCAN) # Oldebroek (VULCAN) # McMurdo Dry Valleys # Caribou/Poker Creeks # Nevada Desert # Sky Oaks # Maricopa # Urbana-Champaign # Duke Forest # Cedar Creek # Rhinelander # Mekrijarvi # Kopparasmyren # Inner Mongolia Grassland # Clermont-Ferrand # Rapolano Viterbo # Eschikon Hofstetten Les Chaux-des-Breuleu # Braunschweig Giessen # Munich Stillberg-Davos # Wageningen # Shizuikuishi # New Delhi # Yabulu # Bulls # Pontville # Godollo # Dublin # Cumbria # Konza Prairie # Norman # Big Bend # Sevilletta # Santa Rita # Flagstaff Mojave # Valentine Eastern Sierra Reserve # Central Valley # Fraser Forest Lochvale # Catskills IES # ELA # Fernow # Pancake Hall Creek Woods Lake

• Mt. Ascutney

Hubbard Brook Pack Forest # Bear Brook # Gardsjon # Amli # Skogaby # Alptal # Aber Forest # Speuld Ysselsteyn # Klosterhede # Solling Forest # Ecosystem warming sites $ CO2 sites (FACE) Ñ Precipitation sites (PrecipNet) N Nitrogen sites

20 peer-reviewed papers 1 book 2 book chapters

SLIDE 29

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

NY_AL AB_SHEF AB450LO ABMBLO CPER AB1150LO RMBL AB450HI FRFFENMH TERA TOOLIKDH TOOLIKMT AB1150HI FRFBOGHH ORNL FRFFENHH RIO_MAYO FRFBOGMH TLKTUS NIWOT HUNT2.5 BCCIL WYTHAM TLKSED CLIMEX SGSTEPPE HIFS ABMBLC HUNT5.0 FLAK HARVARD HUNT7.5

• C

Experimental Temperature Increase

SLIDE 30

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• 30%
• 20%
• 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% N Y _ A L R M B L T L K S E D O R N L H U N T 7 . 5 N I W O T T O O L I K M T C P E R H I F S H A R V A R D S G S T E P P E A B 4 5 H I H U N T 5 . R I O _ M A Y O T O O L I K D H H U N T 2 . 5 T E R A

percent change

Percent Change in Soil Respiration

SLIDE 31

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• 100%

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% A b i s k

• _

7 H

• w

l a n d A b i s k _ 6 A b i s k

• _

1 T

• l

i k A b i s k _ 2 H a r v a r d C L I M E X N y A l e s u n d A b i s k

• _

3 A b i s k

• _

5 A b i s k

• 4

percent change

Percent Change in N Mineralization

SLIDE 32

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• 60
• 40
• 20

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 TACIT TERA Abisko_1 RMBL Wytham Woods Buxton Abisko_2 MN_Bog_lo ORNL Shortgrass Steppe MN_bog_hi Abisko_6 Ny Alesund Toolik_dry Mn_fen_med Mn_Fen_hi Flakaliden Abisko_5 Abisko_4 Toolik_wet Abisko_3 percent change in productivity

Percent Change in Plant Productivity

SLIDE 33

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature

Soil Respiration at the Harvard Forest

SLIDE 34

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature

Soil Respiration at the Harvard Forest

SLIDE 35

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• Moisture

Experimental Manipulations of Soil Moisture at the Harvard Forest Eric Davidson et al.

SLIDE 36

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• Moisture

Mean Flux (mg C m-2 hr-1) 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Soil Temperature (oC) 8 12 16 20 24 Oi gravimetric water content 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 18-Jun-02 19-Jun-02 20-Jun-02 21-Jun-02 22-Jun-02 23-Jun-02 24-Jun-02 25-Jun-02 26-Jun-02 27-Jun-02 28-Jun-02 29-Jun-02 30-Jun-02 1-Jul-02 2-Jul-02 3-Jul-02 4-Jul-02 5-Jul-02 6-Jul-02 7-Jul-02 8-Jul-02 9-Jul-02 10-Jul-02 11-Jul-02 12-Jul-02 13-Jul-02 14-Jul-02 15-Jul-02 Hourly Precipitation (mm) 2 4 6 8 Automated Rainfall Exclusion Automated Control Mineral Soil Water at 5cm Depth (cm3 H2O cm-3 soil) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 a) b) c) d) e)

Harvard Forest Moisture Manipulation

Davidson et al.

SLIDE 37

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• Moisture

100 200 300 400 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Soil respiration (mg C m-2 h-1) S

• i

l w a t e r c

• n

t e n t ( g g

• 1)

S

• i

l t e m p e r a t u r e ( ° C ) Control plots Exclusion plots

Davidson et al.

Harvard Forest Moisture Manipulation Soil Respiration

SLIDE 38

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• Moisture

Hubbard Brook Pilot Moisture Manipulation Study

Rustad et al.

SLIDE 39

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• Moisture
• Fig. 5. Response of in situ net nitrification to

precipitation change. Bars with different superscripts indicate statistically significant differences within the treatment period at p < 0.05.

0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 Reference Rainfall added Rainfall removed Reference Rainfall added Rainfall removed Pre-treatment Treatment

In situ nitrification (mg N kg-1 d-1)

a a a a b ab

Rustad et al.

Hubbard Brook Pilot Moisture Manipulation Study

SLIDE 40

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• Moisture

Future Research?

$$$$$$$$

SLIDE 41

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• Moisture
• Snow

Snow Manipulation Experiments in Northeastern North America

SLIDE 42

Experimental Manipulations

Snow Depth Experiments at:

• 1. Underhill,, VT
• 2. Duchesney Experimental

Forest, Quebec

• 3. Hubbard Brook, NH
• 4. Harvard Forest, MA
• Temperature
• Moisture
• Snow

SLIDE 43

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• Moisture
• Snow

Decker et al. (2003) SSSJ

Vermont Snow Depth Manipulation

SLIDE 44

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• Moisture
• Snow

HBEF Snow Depth Manipulation

Soil Temperatures at -10 cm

• 4
• 2

2 4 6 8 10 DAY 312 320 328 336 344 352 360 3 11 19 27 35 43 51 59 67 75 83 91 99 107

Day in year 1998/99

Soil Temperature (C)

SM1 Freeze SM1 Control SM2 Freeze SM2 Control YB1 Freeze YB1 Control YB2 Freeze YB2 Control

Groffman et al. 2001 Biogeochemistry

SLIDE 45

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature

HBEF Snow Depth Manipulation

1998 1999

b *

D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N

Soil Solution NO3

• (µmol L-1)

100 200 300 400 500

Reference Treatment

D J F MA M J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F MA M J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N

20 40 60 80 100

Birch Maple

1998 1999

Oa Horizon

Frozen Frozen Frozen Frozen

• Moisture
• Snow

Groffman et al. 2001 Biogeochemistry

SLIDE 46

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• Moisture
• Snow

HBEF Snow Depth Manipulation

5 10 15 20 25 30 1998 1999 1998 1999 Mineralization Nitrification

Mineralization and nitrification (g N m

• 1 y-1)

Reference Freeze

Groffman et al. 2001 Biogeochemistry

SLIDE 47

Experimental Manipulations

• Temperature
• Moisture
• Snow

HBEF Snow Depth Manipulation

0.07 0.14 0.21 0.28 0.35 Mar-98 May-98 Jul-98 Sep-98 Nov-98 Jan-99 Mar-99 May-99 Jul-99 Sep-99

Date sampled Proportional fine root mortality

Reference Treatment 0.07 0.14 0.21 0.28 0.35 Mar-98 May-98 Jul-98 Sep-98 Nov-98 Jan-99 Mar-99 May-99 Jul-99 Sep-99

Date sampled Proportional fine root mortality

Reference Treatment

Tierney et al. 2001 Biogeochemistry

SLIDE 48

Gradient Studies

SLIDE 49

Gradient Studies

• Maine Environmental

Gradient Study – Fernandez et al.

Northern Central Southern Coastal

Hardwood Site Hardwood and Softwood Site

MEGS

SLIDE 50

Gradient Studies

• Maine Environmental

Gradient Study – Fernandez et al.

Table 1 Means and ranges for characteristics

• f the sites in this study.

Mean Range Latitude 44o

• 03' - 46o
• 48'

Longitude 68o

• 06' - 70o
• 35'

Elevation (m) 234 46 - 883 Slope (%) 5 1 - 11 Forest Floor Thickness (cm) 7 2 - 14 Basal Area (m

2 2 ha-1

• 1)

29 17 - 40 Conifer (% Basal Area) 38 0 - 100 Mean Annual Air Temperature (C

• )

4.5 2.0 - 6.2 Mean Annual Soil Temperature (C

• )

6.5 5.2 - 7.3 Mean May-Oct Air Temperature (C

• )

13.5 11.4 - 14.7 Mean May-Oct Soil Temperature (C

• )

12.3 10.3 - 13.4 Frost-Free Days 213 113 - 259 Growing Degree Days 2326 1817 - 2652 Precipitation (cm) 103 90 - 140

SLIDE 51

Gradient Studies

• Maine Environmental

Gradient Study – Fernandez et al.

TN TC C/N PNN PNA PNNM 10 20 30 40 50 60 Northern Central Coastal Southern a b a b a c a c b a X 10 ab bc ab a c bc c ab b b b c b b X 10

MEGS

SLIDE 52

Gradient Studies

• Maine Environmental

Gradient Study – Fernandez et al. Northeastern High Elevation Forest Floor Study - Hanson et al.; Evans et al.

SLIDE 53

Gradient Studies

• Maine Environmental

Gradient Study – Fernandez et al.

• Northeastern High Elevation

Forest Floor Study - Hanson et al.; Evans et al.

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Ca Percent Dry Weight

Ca 1979* Ca 1996

50 100 150 200 250 300 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 mg/kg Pb Dry Weight Pb 1979* Pb 1996

Northeastern High Elevation Forest Floor Study

SLIDE 54

Gradient Studies

• Maine Environmental

Gradient Study – Fernandez et al.

• Northeastern High Elevation

Forest Floor Study - Hanson et al.; Evans et al.

• Hubbard Brook

Environmental Gradient Study – Groffman et al.

Mean Annual Temperature

y = 0.03x + 6.1 R2 = 0.18

3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 1968

Year

Station 6 747 m Station 1 488 m HQ 253 m Linear (HQ 253 m)

Hubbard Brook Elevational Gradients

SLIDE 55

Gradient Studies

• Maine Environmental

Gradient Study – Fernandez et al.

• Northeastern High Elevation

Forest Floor Study - Hanson et al.; Evans et al.

• Hubbard Brook

Environmental Gradient Study – Groffman et al.

Low 250-300 m

Mid 480-600 m

High>780M

Low 250-300 m

Mid 480-600 m

High>780M

Low 250-300 m

Mid 480-600 m

High>780M

Hubbard Brook Elevational Gradient Study

SLIDE 56

Gradient Studies

• Maine Environmental

Gradient Study – Fernandez et al.

• Northeastern High Elevation

Forest Floor Study - Hanson et al.; Evans et al. Hubbard Brook Environmental Gradient Study – Groffman et al.

25 50 75 100 UV LV EK WK Snow depth Low elevation High elevation Snow depth - January 8, 2002 2 4 6 UV LV EK WK Soil frost depth Low elevation High elevation Soil frost - February 22, 2002 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 LV UV EK WK Soil moisture (w/w) Low elevation High elevation Mineral soil (June 2002)

More snow at higher elevation Higher soil moisture at higher elevation Less soil freezing at higher elevation

SLIDE 57

Gradient Studies

• Maine Environmental

Gradient Study – Fernandez et al.

• Northeastern High Elevation

Forest Floor Study - Hanson et al.; Evans et al.

• Hubbard Brook

Environmental Gradient Study – Groffman et al.

4 8 12 16 LV UV EK WK Soil nitrate (mg N kg-1) Low elevation High elevation Forest floor (June 2002) 2 4 6 LV UV EK WK Potential net nitrification (mg N kg-1 d-1) Low elevation High elevation Forest floor (June 2002)

Higher soil nitrification at higher elevation Higher soil NO3

• at

higher elevation

SLIDE 58

Gradient Studies

• Maine Environmental

Gradient Study – Fernandez et al.

• Northeastern High Elevation

Forest Floor Study - Hanson et al.; Evans et al.

• Hubbard Brook

Environmental Gradient Study – Groffman et al.

0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 19-Apr-01 8-Jun-01 28-Jul-01 16-Sep-01 5-Nov-01 25-Dec-01 Date Total soil respiration (g C m-2 h-1) Low elevation High elevation

Higher soil respiration at lower elevation

SLIDE 59

Biological Observations

SLIDE 60

Biological Observations

• Birds and small

mammals

Rodenhouse et al.

SLIDE 61

Biological Observations

• Birds and small

mammals

Rodenhouse et al.

Birds vs. Temperature

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5

1969 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Year

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220

Birds per 10 ha

Mean annual Temperature Bird abundance/10 ha Linear (Mean annual Temperature)

SLIDE 62

Biological Observations

• Birds and small

mammals

How might climate change affect bird populations? Directly and indirectly Rodenhouse et al.

SLIDE 63

Biological Observations

• Birds and small

mammals

Low 250-300 m

Mid 480-600 m

High>780M

Low 250-300 m

Mid 480-600 m

High>780M

Low 250-300 m

Mid 480-600 m

High>780M

Hubbard Brook Elevational Gradient Study

SLIDE 64

Biological Observations

• Birds and small

mammals

Climate and Song Bird Populations

• Food is more abundant during warm, dry years.
• Distribution of birds will shift towards lower

elevations in years with cold spring weather.

• Bird densities will be higher in years where

weather conditions lead to synchronous arrival of spring migrants.

• Rate of nest predation:
• will increase in summers following a mast

seed crop in the preceding summer/autumn.

• will decline when inclement weather

depresses nest predator activity.

SLIDE 65

Biological Observations

• Birds and small

mammals

• Forest Insects

Spruce budworm Mountain pine beetle Gypsy moth Barry Cook et al.

SLIDE 66

Biological Observations

• Birds and small

mammals

• Forest Insects

Fall Fall Fall Fall Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Spring Spring Spring

Gypsy moth annual life cyle

Gypsy moth annual life cyle Barry Cook et al.

SLIDE 67

1961-1990

SLIDE 68

1971-2000

SLIDE 69

1981-2010

SLIDE 70

1991-2020

SLIDE 71

2001-2030

SLIDE 72

2011-2040

SLIDE 73

2021-2050

SLIDE 74

2031-2060

SLIDE 75

2041-2070

SLIDE 76

Modeling

SLIDE 77

Modeling

• PnET

Scott Ollinger et al.

Predicted Net Primary Production (g m-2 yr-1)

<800 1050 1150 1250 1400 <800 1050 1150 1250 1400

SLIDE 78

Modeling

• PnET

Scott Ollinger et al.

SLIDE 79

Modeling

• PnET

Scott Ollinger et al.

SLIDE 80

A New Program on:

Synthesis of Climate Change Research in Northeastern US and Eastern Canadian Forest Ecosystems

NERC CVC Working Group Funded by NSRC and NSF RCN

SLIDE 81

Why Northern Forest Ecosystems?

• The dominant land cover type across

much of the Northeastern United States and Eastern Canada

• Provide important ecosystem services,

including:

• Forest Products
• Tourism
• Recreation
• Clean air
• Clean water
• Biodiversity

SLIDE 82

Goals

• Increase communication amongst global

change scientists in the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada

• Synthesize the accumulating research on

the response of northern forest ecosystems to climate change

• Make this summary available to policy

makers, land and resource managers, stakeholders and the interested public

SLIDE 83

Approach

• Phase 1: a scientific synthesis of climate

variability and change research in the region

• Climate Variability and Change:

Consequences for Northern Forest Ecosystems

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Historical Record for Past Climate Change within the Region
• 3. Indicators of Past Climate Change within the Region (lake and

river ice-out, river flow timing, phenology, etc)

• 4. Updated Climate Projections for the Region
• 5. Current Regional Scientific Efforts
• a. Long-term Monitoring
• b. Gradients (space-for-time substitutions)

(i) Elevational (ii) Latitudinal

• c. Experimental Manipulations

(i) Temperature (ii) Precipitation (iii) Snow

• d. Biological Observations

(i) Birds (ii) Small mammals (iii) Insects (iv) Invasive species (v) Biodiversity Species Redistribution

• e. Modeling
• 6. Ecological Implications for Northern Forest Ecosystems
• a. Forest impacts
• b. Water impacts
• c. Biogeochemical impacts
• d. Pests and Pathogens
• e. Interactions with O3, N and S deposition, Hg, and fire
• 7. Future Scientific Research Needs

SLIDE 84

Approach

• Phase 2: the ‘translation’ of this document

for the non-scientific community, as a:

• Forest Service General Technical Report (GTR)
• Fact Sheets
• Web site

SLIDE 85

Timeline

2003/2004 2005 2006

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D First CVC Meeting X Proposal Planning X X X X X Proposal submission X Proposal Funded X Initial Planning X X X X Second CVC Meeting X Synthesis Paper Writing X X X X X X X Third CVC Meeting X Outreach Paper Writing X X X X X X X Final Products X

SLIDE 86

Final Thought….

It is hoped that these products will be used to provide an unbiased scientific basis for forestry related policy and land management decisions within the region.