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Climate Change Impact on Power Systems: The Chilean Case Luis Vargas Department of Electrical Engineering University of Chile Chile NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Climate Change Impact on Power Systems: The Chilean Case

Luis Vargas

Department of Electrical Engineering University of Chile Chile

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

  • Project “Climate Adaptation Strategy for the Metropolitan Region of Santiago

de Chile and Regional Learning Network in megacities of Latin America”.

  • Project lasting December 1st 2009 until November 30th 2012.
  • Project funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature

Conservation and Nuclear Safety (Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit) on December 10th 2009 within the international initiative for climate protection.

  • Institutions:
  • Universidad de Chile
  • Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
  • Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

(ECLAC/CEPAL),

  • Karlsruhe Institut für Technologie (KIT)-Institut für

Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS) and

  • The Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung GmbH – UFZ

About the Project

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

The Chilean Electricity System

16.5 million people nearly 5000 km long peak load of 9.000 MW 65% hydro and 35% thermal

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

The Chilean Electricity System: Installed capacity

47% 9% 26% 17% 1%

Installed Capacity CIS (2009)

hidroeléctrica Carbón Gas Natural Diesel y Otros Eolica+Biomasa

CIS

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Renewable source SIC Installed Capacity [MW] Potential [MW] Mini-Hydro 120 20.392 Geothermal 16.000 Wind 180 40.000 Biomass 191 13.675 Solar 100.000 Total 491 190.067

  • High potential for renewable energy
  • High rise of Wind Power in Chile

The Chilean Central Interconnected System (CIS) Currently over 1000 MW of wind power projects

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

The Chilean Central Interconnected System (CIS)

Central Interconnected System-CIS

40,000 GWh demand CIS peak load of 6.000 MW 65% hydro and 35% thermal

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

  • 16.5 million people
  • nearly 5000 km long
  • High mountain-Los Andes

Central Interconnected System: Main Features

  • Hot, dry summers and cold, wet winters.
  • Mediterranean climate
  • Average summer high temperatures range from 28 to

30 degrees Celsius,

  • Minimum temperatures during winter range from 0

to 5 degrees Celsius.

  • Precipitation falls mostly during the months of June,

July and August, with total precipitation amounts ranging from 200 to 500 mm each year.

  • Snow events are quite rare and happen mostly in the

higher parts of the city

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Historical Climate Trend

  • Temperature trends

from 1975 to 2006

  • Positive in Andes and

Central Valley.

  • Negatives in costal

stations.

.Mendoza .San Juan .Lagunitas .El Yeso .Chillán .Santiago .Curicó .Juan Fernández ..La Serena …Concepción ..Valparaíso

Falvey, M. and Garreaud, R.D., (2009).

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Future Climate Trends in Chile

Projected changes in temperature (lower color bar in Celsius degrees ) Precipitation (lower color bar in %)

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Climate Trends for the Metropolitan Region

Period 2045-2065 in two future scenarios A2 and B1:

  • Statistical downscaling (mean

and variability).

  • 1 - 2 °C warming.
  • Days with maximum

temperatures above 30 ºC increase in the order of 25 – 45 days per year.

In the near future Central Interconnected System area will be dryer and hotter, with a high number of days with extreme temperatures, increased drought during the winter and summer

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Energy Scenarios

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC y

  • 1)

5 6 7 8 9 10

A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2 Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center International Energy Agency

  • BAU-Pessimistic: A2
  • Optimistic: B2

Level of Emissions and Socio Economic Factors IPCC projections for CO2 emissions Actual Evolution for CO2 emissions

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Projection Methodology

Scenarios Energy Demand Electrical Energy Demand CIS Generation Mix Power Flow SIC

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Relation Between Electricity Demand and GDP

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000

  • 5000

5000 15000 25000 35000 45000

kWh/per cap US$/per cap Electric Demand per capita vs GDP per

  • capita. BAU, Pessimistic and Optimistic

scenarios

BAU Pes Op

APERC

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Population Projections

5.000.000 10.000.000 15.000.000 20.000.000 25.000.000 1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 2022 2030 2038 2046 2054 2062 2070 2078 2086 2094

Population Projections, Chile. XXI century

Inhabitants

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Energy Intensity

0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Energy Intensity (kWh/USD)

BAU Pes Opt

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Electricity Demand vs Temperature

Source: Franco and Sanstad, 2006

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Energy Demand Projection

20 40 60 80 100 120

Total Energy Demand (GWa)

BAU Pes Opt

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Total Electric Demand (GWa)

BAU Pes Opt

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Electricity Supply System

SIC, Reductions: A2: 6, 12 y 18% B2: 5, 10 y 13%

15.500 16.000 16.500 17.000 17.500 18.000 18.500 19.000 19.500 20.000 20.500 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099

Annual Average Generation (GWh) Periods

Annual Average Hydropower Generation (CIS)

A2 B2

Climate Change Economy in Chile, CEPAL 2009.

HydroPower represents the 47% of SIC

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Electricity Supply System

  • Thermal power generation of CIS on

2009 was 18285 GWh (44% of total generation).

  • Linnerud et al. (2009), based on USA

studies, shows that an increase of 1°C reduces the output power of a nuclear plant in 0.8%, and 0,6% in coal and gas power plants.

  • Davcock et al (2004) indicates that

power output decreases between 3% toi 4% in thermal plants when the temperature rises 5.5°C.

  • Scarcity of water will also impose

constratints to thermal power

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Electricity Supply System

  • In 2009 total CIS thermal generation was

18285 GWh (43.67% of total).

  • By considering Linnerud and Davcock

estimations, the decrease of generated power for 2009 caused by an increase of 1oC would be 109.71 GWh and 117.024 GWh, respectively.

  • Increase of 3.2°C by the end of century

reduces the output of thermal power in 350 GWh (1.9% aprox.)

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Transmission System

Temperature Increases Current Limits decrease A2:21.5°C; 22.5°C; 24°C B2: 21°C; 22°C; 23°C A2: 97%; 95%; 92% B2: 98%; 96%; 94%

20

LT LT DF

t

  • Decreased transmission

capacity

  • Need for Increasing line

projects (km) Opt.:2.6%(2040)-1.9%(2100) Pess:3.4%(2040)-2.8%(2100)

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Conclusion

Climate Power Generation Demand Transmission Central Interconnected System will be:

  • Dryer and hotter with a high

number of days with extreme temperatures.

  • Increased drought during the

winter and summer

  • Hydro power decreases (5 to

18%).

  • The generation from coal

plants will decrease (T°; water).

  • The scenarios with higher

losses are those with the generation points are more distant of the demand points.

  • The increase in temperature

will induce a decrease in current limits (92% -94%). The expected decrease will produce an increase of the grid (line km) between 1.47% and 2.84%.

  • Estimate electricity

demand with weather forecasts presents a great challenge

  • Demand pattern will change and

the highest electric demand will be in summer months.

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

¡Thank you!

Luis Vargas, lvargasd@ing.uchile.cl

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Electricity in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago

Cerro Navia Alto Jahuel Polpaico

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NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Electricity in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago (2020/2100)

Santiago Alto Jahuel Polpaico Cerro Navia Total Pess. 55%/32% 27%/53% 18%/15% 5557 /18114 Opt. 60%/44% 23%/48% 16%/7% 5210 / 14014 CIS Generation Load Grid Losses MW MW MW Pess. 11324/36989 10909/34754 415/2235 Opt. 10857/29893 10363/27390 526/2502

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