Climate Change Impact on Power Systems: The Chilean Case Luis - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change Impact on Power Systems: The Chilean Case Luis Vargas Department of Electrical Engineering University of Chile Chile NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

About the Project • Project “Climate Adaptation Strategy for the Metropolitan Region of Santiago de Chile and Regional Learning Network in megacities of Latin America”. • Project lasting December 1 st 2009 until November 30 th 2012. • Project funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit) on December 10 th 2009 within the international initiative for climate protection. • Institutions:  Universidad de Chile  Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile  Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC/CEPAL),  Karlsruhe Institut für Technologie (KIT)-Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS) and  The Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung GmbH – UFZ NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

The Chilean Electricity System 16.5 million people nearly 5000 km long peak load of 9.000 MW 65% hydro and 35% thermal NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

The Chilean Electricity System: Installed capacity Installed Capacity CIS (2009) hidroeléctrica Carbón Gas Natural Diesel y Otros Eolica+Biomasa 1% 17% 47% 26% CIS 9% NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

The Chilean Central Interconnected System (CIS) • High potential for renewable energy • High rise of Wind Power in Chile Renewable SIC Installed Potential [MW] source Capacity [MW] Currently over Mini-Hydro 120 20.392 1000 MW of wind Geothermal 0 16.000 power projects Wind 180 40.000 Biomass 191 13.675 Solar 0 100.000 Total 491 190.067 NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

The Chilean Central Interconnected System (CIS) Central Interconnected System-CIS 40,000 GWh demand CIS peak load of 6.000 MW 65% hydro and 35% thermal NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Central Interconnected System: Main Features - Hot, dry summers and cold, wet winters. - Mediterranean climate - Average summer high temperatures range from 28 to 30 degrees Celsius, - Minimum temperatures during winter range from 0 to 5 degrees Celsius. - Precipitation falls mostly during the months of June, July and August, with total precipitation amounts ranging from 200 to 500 mm each year. - Snow events are quite rare and happen mostly in the • 16.5 million people higher parts of the city • nearly 5000 km long • High mountain-Los Andes NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Historical Climate Trend .Mendoza .San Juan • Temperature trends from 1975 to 2006 .Lagunitas .El Yeso • Positive in Andes and Central Valley. .Chillán .Santiago • Negatives in costal .Curicó stations. Falvey, M. and Garreaud, R.D., (2009). ..La Serena …Concepción ..Valparaíso .Juan Fernández NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Future Climate Trends in Chile Projected changes in temperature Precipitation (lower color bar in Celsius degrees ) (lower color bar in %) NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Climate Trends for the Metropolitan Region Period 2045-2065 in two future scenarios A2 and B1: • Statistical downscaling (mean and variability). • 1 - 2 °C warming. • Days with maximum temperatures above 30 ºC increase in the order of 25 – 45 days per year. In the near future Central Interconnected System area will be dryer and hotter , with a high number of days with extreme temperatures, increased drought during the winter and summer NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Energy Scenarios • BAU-Pessimistic: A2 Level of Emissions and Socio • Optimistic: B2 Economic Factors 10 Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center International Energy Agency -1 ) Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC y 9 A1B A1FI 8 A1T A2 B1 7 B2 6 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 IPCC projections for CO2 emissions Actual Evolution for CO2 emissions NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Projection Methodology Electrical Power Energy Energy Generation Flow Scenarios Demand Mix Demand SIC CIS NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Relation Between Electricity Demand and GDP Electric Demand per capita vs GDP per capita. BAU, Pessimistic and Optimistic scenarios 20000 18000 16000 kWh/per cap 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 -5000 5000 15000 25000 35000 45000 US$/per cap BAU Pes Op APERC NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Population Projections Population Projections, Chile. XXI century Inhabitants 25.000.000 20.000.000 15.000.000 10.000.000 5.000.000 0 1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 2022 2030 2038 2046 2054 2062 2070 2078 2086 2094 NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Energy Intensity Energy Intensity (kWh/USD) 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 BAU Pes Opt NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Electricity Demand vs Temperature Source: Franco and Sanstad, 2006 NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Energy Demand Projection Total Energy Demand (GWa) Total Electric Demand (GWa) 120 40 35 100 30 80 25 60 20 15 40 10 20 5 0 0 BAU Pes Opt BAU Pes Opt NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Electricity Supply System Annual Average Hydropower Generation (CIS) 20.500 20.000 Annual Average Generation (GWh) 19.500 19.000 18.500 18.000 A2 17.500 B2 17.000 16.500 16.000 15.500 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 Periods SIC, Reductions: HydroPower represents A2: 6, 12 y 18% the 47% of SIC B2: 5, 10 y 13% Climate Change Economy in Chile, CEPAL 2009 . NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Electricity Supply System • Thermal power generation of CIS on 2009 was 18285 GWh (44% of total generation). • Linnerud et al. (2009), based on USA studies, shows that an increase of 1°C reduces the output power of a nuclear plant in 0.8%, and 0,6% in coal and gas power plants. • Davcock et al (2004) indicates that power output decreases between 3% toi 4% in thermal plants when the temperature rises 5.5°C. • Scarcity of water will also impose constratints to thermal power NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012

Electricity Supply System • In 2009 total CIS thermal generation was 18285 GWh (43.67% of total). • By considering Linnerud and Davcock estimations, the decrease of generated power for 2009 caused by an increase of 1 o C would be 109.71 GWh and 117.024 GWh, respectively. • Increase of 3.2°C by the end of century reduces the output of thermal power in 350 GWh (1.9% aprox.) NTUA, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dr. Luis Vargas Athens. September 20th , 2012