Climate change and health East Metro Region Health Planners Network meeting – 21 July 2020 Vanora Mulvenna and Grace Reilly – Climate and Health Team, Department of Health and Human Services Ellie Blackwood – Climate Change Division, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning Dianna McDonald – Social Research Lead, Sustainability Victoria
Structure of presentation Ellie Blackwood, DELWP 15 mins 1. DELWP Climate change policy and programs Dianna McDonald, SV 15 mins 2. SV research – Linking health and climate change impacts research Grace Reilly, DHHS 15 mins 3. DHHS guidance on tackling climate change through municipal public health and wellbeing planning
DELWP Climate Change Policy and Programs March 2020 MPHWP Forums
Victorian Climate Change Policy • Climate Change Act 2017 • Victoria’s Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2017-20 s17 : Decision-makers must have regard to climate change Under s17 of the Climate Change Act 2017 councils are required to ‘have regard to climate change’ when preparing a Municipal Public Health and Wellbeing Plan. This requirement was first introduced under the Climate Change Act 2010 . 4
Climate change adaptation: State, regional and local scales Climate Data and Supporting Information Built Primary State-wide Transport Environment Production sector based Adaptation Climate Action Plans in Health and Education Science Natural Human and Water Cycle Report seven key Environment Services Training Sectors Climate change Supporting Loddon Mallee communication Gippsland Regional Hume Regional Regional Adaptation Regional resources Adaptation Strategy Adaptation Strategy Strategy adaptation capacity Barwon South West Greater Melbourne development Grampians Regional Regional Adaptation Regional Adaptation and action Adaptation Strategy Strategy Strategy Vulnerability assessments Supporting DELWP Local Government Adaptation Program objectives: strategic action 1. Build the capacity of Victorian local governments to VCP19 to build adaptive understand and address risks from climate change. 5km capacity of local 2. Provide targeted support and collaboration with local downscaled government and government adaptation programs and projects climate enable local level projection data 3. Help councils to learn from each other, and provide adaptation action information, training and guidance materials 5
Victoria is hotter and drier 6
Climate change = the new normal Observed average annual temperature in Victoria (BoM, 2019, CSIRO, 2019). Anyone under the age of 23 who has always lived in Victoria has never experienced a year of below-average temperature. 7
What is Victorian Climate Projections 2019? • DELWP partnered with CSIRO’s Climate Science Centre • VCP19: New 5 km high-resolution climate modelling o covering average and extreme temperature and rainfall, relative humidity, and evaporation o out to 2090 o moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios 8
Temperature change Greater Melbourne (Compared to 1986-2005) Range of change from 0.85 1.72 VCP19 hi-res models 1.43 2.64 Use plot as guide More detail in spreadsheets 1.34 2.21 Range from global models 2.57 4.36 9
Hot days • Increase in average temperatures leads to increase in hot days • Hot days expected to approximately double by 2050 10 10
Rainfall changes Greater Melbourne (Compared to 1986-2005) -13.33 1.16 Range of change from VCP19 hi-res models -23.93 1.31 Use plot as guide More detail in spreadsheets -19.27 2.08 Range from all -28.11 6.4 sources (e.g. VicCI, global models) 11
Change in extreme rainfall • Warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour • Observations show increases in rainfall extremes • Most simulations of the future show increases, irrespective of projected mean changes • Can lead to flash flooding/urban flooding catchments 12 12
Changes in fire danger • Fire weather has become more dangerous since mid-1900s • Fire seasons have become longer and are starting earlier • Trends expected to continue • Melbourne: 42% increase in number of high fire danger days 13 13 13
Finding the information you need VCP19 tools and resources • 10 Regional Reports • Technical Report • Application ready datasets • Guidance package Start with the simplest information and work out if you need more VCP19 decision tree, Technical Report, pg. 77 14
Regional Reports • 10 regions of Victoria • Summary information about temperature, rainfall, changes in hot/cold days, fire, Mallee sea level rise (where relevant) Wimmera Loddon Ovens Southern Campaspe Murray Mallee Goulburn If you need: Central Great Highlands Greater Gippsland South Melbourne - to get an idea of future Coast Barwon climate changes for your region 15
Victoria’s Climate Science Report 2019 • Summary information for the state • Observed changes • Drivers of Victoria’s climate • Projected changes • Case studies of using climate information in decision-making If you need: - background climate change information - summary information for setting the scene in a workshop or strategic document 16
www.climatechange.vic.gov.au Clare Brownridge & Ramona Dalla Pozza Climate Science and Communications climate.science@delwp.vic.gov.au Ellie Blackwood Climate Change Adaptation Policy ellie.blackwood@delwp.vic.gov.au
Health and Climate Change Awareness of the health impacts of climate change A survey of Victorians and health care professionals Grampians National Park, Victoria By Linda Xu - Unsplash
Many voices warning of climate change health impacts Climate change is the biggest Banking giant HSBC warns of global health threat of the 21st annual US$10 trillion climate century…. A rapidly changing health cost Climate change is climate has dire implications for every aspect of human life the biggest global health threat of the 21st century The AMA - climate change is a The Royal Australasian College of health emergency with clear Physicians (RACP) - already scientific evidence indicating noticeable health impacts occurring severe impacts for patients from environmental changes Victoria has already experienced direct health impacts from extreme events such as heatwaves, floods and bushfires , which are expected to occur with greater frequency and intensity as a result of climate change
The public do not link health and climate change Extreme Weather I have never Environmental Damage thought there is direct influence Climate between climate Change change and health Hotter – but after reading Summers those statements The Rising Cost of Energy (from WHO), we need to stop and think. People are unlikely to spontaneously think of health when asked about the impact of climate change
State-wide research to measure awareness Victorians, n=3,060 ▪ Representative of Victorian population Statistical Measures ▪ Respondents aged 15+ years ▪ Minimum 100 interviews in each region ▪ Awareness of link between health and climate change ▪ Health conditions associated with climate change ▪ Health conditions healthcare professionals are seeing Healthcare professionals, n=700 ▪ Emotional responses connected to climate change ▪ 700 ▪ Thermal quality of housing ▪ GPs (100+) ▪ Nurses (300+) ▪ Expectations of action ▪ Allied health professionals (75+) ▪ Desire to know more about health and climate change ▪ Medical specialists (50)
Climate change impacts - health not top of mind e o ro e t o e p te t t p t e o pro e t o e i er Victorians p rank health as tro e i e ro p e r y t o eep t r o e t p ot e i er or t er t yo r e i or e t o e e e r e % who mentioned health when asked p r t o r i e pe e r e t o r o p e r t o r i e e their top i i t r o e ei t i p or t i er t ro e e e e e yo r i o t o i o t e r t o r po i e er p p et about climate change impacts e e er t o e p t r o e e or e i priority yet… 90 % 11% Current impacts 18% haven’t thought 17% Future about how health impacts 32% is affected by All Victorians 15-24 years climate change
Climate change impacts – health link When prompted, the All connection is readily accepted 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65+ Impacts Victorians 58 % 67 % 66 % 70 % 68 % 68 % 63 % Cost of living recognise health as one of the main ways Healthy 63 % 66 % 59 % 60 % 62 % 60 % environment they are likely to be affected by climate 73 % 58 % 56 % 50 % 57 % 57 % change. Human health
Healthcare professionals are already seeing impacts Climate change - Impact on public health 84 % 84% Now 22% 38% 24% Within 10 Healthcare 91% 7% 27% 57% years professionals say A little Moderate A lot climate change is already 57 % say within 10 years the impact harming public of climate change on public health health will be significant
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