Climate and Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie Richard P. Stumpf - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶

Mar 10, 2024 7 likes •333 views

Climate and Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie Richard P. Stumpf NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Silver Spring, MD Lake Erie 22 July 2011 2011 cyanobacteria bloom, worst in decades, visible from space 2003, perhaps the

SLIDE 1

Climate and Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie

Lake Erie 22 July 2011

Richard P. Stumpf

NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Silver Spring, MD

SLIDE 2

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

2003, “perhaps the most severe in Lake Erie’s recent history” (EPA)

2011 cyanobacteria bloom, worst in decades, visible from space

09 October : Data from MERIS (European Space Agency)

SLIDE 3

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

2012 bloom wasn’t.

10 September, data from MODIS

SLIDE 4

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Potential (Large) Areas of Concern in Great Lakes

Green Bay Saginaw Bay Western Lake Erie 2008 bloom intensity low high

105 cells ml-1 106 104

SLIDE 5

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

MERIS on the ENVISAT-1 satellite

1150 km ENVISAT-1

Coverage every 2 days from 2002 to April 2012 launch of replacement (Sentinel-3) late next year

SLIDE 6

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

satellite algorithms (MERIS data)

Standard blue-green algorithms are sensitive to absorption by many components. We use Red/NIR and curvature (shape); insensitive to sediment and CDOM

SLIDE 7

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

MERIS can see more wavelengths of light, allowing us to detect and quantify blooms

13 Sep 2010 True color, difficult to identify and quantify Red and near-infrared wavelengths help

SLIDE 8

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

This information gives a cyanobacteria index, “CI”, which equates to concentration

True color Cyano Index (CI) 13 Sep 2010 low high

105 cells ml-1 106 104

SLIDE 9

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Bulletins for Lake Erie bloom

To get bulletin, search for “NOAA Lake Erie bloom bulletin”

Transports with the NOAA Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System

SLIDE 10

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Annual blooms from the worst 30-day period, MERIS 2002-2011; MODIS 2012

Log-scaled display

MODIS

WHO risk threshold

Modified from Stumpf et al., 2012 PLoSONE

SLIDE 11

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Bloom severity over 11 years from satellite; sum of concentrations in western Lake Erie

CI of 1 ~ 1020 cells Microcystis

SLIDE 12

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Cyanobacteria like warm water; strong growth > 20ºC; minimal growth < 15ºC

Paerl et al., 2011 (Science of the Total Environment)

SLIDE 13

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Climatologic Temperatures in Lake Erie

Too cold cool Good growth Excellent growth

SLIDE 14

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Temperature gives season but not-interannual

(avg temperature over western basin)

Years with small bloom Years with large bloom Stumpf et al., 2012 PLoSONE 2011

SLIDE 15

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Excessive phosphorus promotes cyano blooms

Downing et al., 2001; Can.J.Fish.Auat.Sci .

SLIDE 16

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Use Maumee River Discharge to make seasonal predictions; largest tributary to Lake Erie.

Toledo Dayton

USGS Ohio Fact sheet FS-035-96)

SLIDE 17

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Understand blooms with nutrient load data

30+ year program measuring nutrients in Ohio rivers (Pete Richards, Dave Baker have led that effort) National Center for Water Quality Research

SLIDE 18

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Dissolved phosphorus, has a trend but much variability

Data from Pete Richards

SLIDE 19

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Total phosphorus follows discharge; Spring (Mar-Jun).

Maumee River total phosphorus (m.tons) Maumee River average discharge (m3/s)

SLIDE 20

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Spring loads matter. Models predict CI (bloom severity) from spring discharge & loads. See Stumpf et al., PLoSONE 2012

CI

Q model (based on Q-P correlation)

Stumpf et al. 2012

Experimental SRP- Q model

SLIDE 21

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

2012 seasonal forecast

“…calls for a smaller bloom of the cyanobacteria HAB this summer, compared to recent severe blooms. Last year’s [2011] bloom, one of the largest in decades, covered … an area the size of Long Island

Sound. This year’s [2012] mild bloom is expected to about one-tenth

the size of last year’s.”

2012

SLIDE 22

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Observed against model (and 2012 forecast) 2012 mild, but not as mild as model predicted

bserved

modeled

2012 forecast

SLIDE 23

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

2012: Unusual in several ways. Follows 2011 (which was nearly 3x more intense than the next worst bloom)

09 October : Data from MERIS (European Space Agency)

SLIDE 24

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

And other unusual events, cyano bloom in central basin in early July (!) disconnected from western basin

10 July 2012 (bloom identified by Ohio EPA)

SLIDE 25

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

2012 had no ice

16 February, MODIS (from NASA Rapidfire)

SLIDE 26

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

This has happened before preceding both non-bloom years (2002 & 2005), and a bloom year (1998).

(graph from Wang et al., 2012 J.Climate, Ice cover sq km) bloom No-bloom 1998 was predicted by spring load model

SLIDE 27

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Lots of “unusual climate” in 2012

2012 anomalous spring diatom bloom (water supply problems) Anomalous early July central basin bloom Follows biggest bloom ever (remarkably, that hasn’t happened previously in any years)

no ice wet winter

SLIDE 28

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

2013: model uses Maumee River spring loads (2013 load falls between 2012 & 2011)

Data from National Center for Water Quality Research

Maumee River total phosphorus (m.tons) Maumee River average discharge (m3/s)

average discharge based on USGS data (m3/s) dissolved phosphorus load (m.tons) total phosphorus load (m.tons) 2013 2013 2013

SLIDE 29

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

2013 Forecast: Significant bloom.

similar to 2003, much milder than 2011

2013

SLIDE 30

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

2013 prediction for western Lake Erie “significant bloom” but 1/5 of 2011. Definitely a significant bloom. Severity to be calculated this winter.

low medium high concentration

2013 on Sep 10 2011 for comparison

SLIDE 31

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Climate patterns We can estimate bloom severity. This allows for models of impacts under future scenarios (assuming other things don’t change, like invasive species, etc.) Spring load matters; caused by runoff and discharge. Precip, snow melt, etc. influence nutrient runoff. Temperature allows for blooms, but does not drive size (yet). Longer hot periods, longer blooms. >20 ºC: bloom appears; persists until <15 ºC.

SLIDE 32

2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Planning for climate change and variability will help the task of restoring and maintaining a Great Lake

Assistance from NASA Decision Support, Public Health NNH08ZDA001N

Photo from Gibraltar Island, Ohio Sea Grant