Chris Mefford Who we are CAI is a planni anning ng and econom - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Chris Mefford

8/12/2019 CAI Confidential 2

Who we are CAI is a planni anning ng and econom

• nomics

cs firm rm. What we believe Succe ccessful ssful strat rategies egies are ground unded ed in data ta and econom nomic c theor eory. How – What makes our approach unique We produce uce sophist histicat ated ed analys lysis and tell ll data ta-ric rich h stories

• ries with

th an emp mphas hasis on desi sign gn and technology chnology. What we do We lead ad strat ategies, egies, produc uce e repor

• rts,

ts, and devel elop

• p

technology chnology to reach ach more re peopl ple e and imp mprove e imp mpac act. t.

Community Attributes tells data-rich stories about communities that are important to decision-makers.

• A little context
• Regional growth models
• Thurston County trends and economic drivers
• U.S. and Global trends and economic drivers

3

Contents

4

A little context

U.S. Economic Recovery

Months of expansion following recession, NBER definition

5 Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019; Community Attributes Inc., 2019.

*2008-2009 expansion period still ongoing.

Recession Period Recovery/ Expansion Period

2008-2009 2009 - ? 1990-1991 1991-2001 1960-1961 1961-1970 1981-1982 1982-1990 1937-1938 1938-1945 2001 2001-2008 1973-1975 1975-1980 1929-1933 1933-1937 1948-1949 1949-1953 1913-1915 1915-1918

Months of Recovery/Expansion

122 120 106 92 80 73 58 50 45 44 25 50 75 100 125 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

6

U.S. Labor Force Participation & Unemployment

50. 50.0 52. 52.0 54.0 54.0 56. 56.0 58. 58.0 60.0 60.0 62. 62.0 64. 64.0 66. 66.0 68. 68.0 70. 70.0 0. 0.0 2. 2.0 4. 4.0 6.0 6.0 8. 8.0 10. 10.0 12. 12.0

UNEMPLOYMENT Rate e %

Labor

• r Force

ce Particip icipati ation n %

Labor

• r Forc

rce e Partic icipati ation

• n

Unemplo mploym yment ent Unemplo mploym yment ent Rate in U. U.S.

3.7% 7% 63.2% .2%

August st 2019 Labor Force Par Partici cipati pation

7

Workers and Income

Workers by Wage Range (2018 dollars) Washington State, Based on Median Annual Earnings Wages & Incomes Washington State

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics, 2018.

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2018 $

10th Percentile (0.6% CAGR) 25th Percentile (0.8% CAGR) 50th Percentile (0.3% CAGR) 75th Percentile (0.6% CAGR) 90th Percentile (0.6% CAGR)

422 1,261 861 268 435 1,386 1,011 427

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

Less than $32,000 $32,000 to $50,000 $50,000 to $80,000 $80,000 to $125,000

2007 2018

Thousands of Workers

Annual Median Earnings 2018 $

8

Where will we grow?

Sources: Washington Office of Financial Management, 2019; Community Attributes Inc., 2019.

9

A little theory

10

Circular Flows of the Economy

Robert Gordon, 2002

11

Major Industries in Washington

4,326,400 Total Jobs

Sources: Bellevue Creative Economy Study, 2017; QCEW, 2017; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2017; QCEW, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2017; Industry/Occupation Crosswalk, Washington State Employment Security Department, 2017; Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2017

12

Major Industries in Washington

Percent of Export Jobs by Industry

Sources: Bellevue Creative Economy Study, 2017; QCEW, 2017; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2017; QCEW, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2017; Industry/Occupation Crosswalk, Washington State Employment Security Department, 2017; Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2017

13

Total Washington Exports by Commodity or Merchandise

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018.

14

Washington Non-Aerospace Exports

2018

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018.

15

Washington Aerospace Exports

2018

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018.

16

Thurston County

17

Real Estate: Single Family Housing

Zillow Home Value Index, United States and Washington Metros | Q3 2019

Sources: Zillow, 2019. $492k $404k $404k $374k $364k $329k $327k $312k $303k $300k $284k $270k $263k $250k $249k $248k $230k $215k $195k $182k $177k

$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000

18

Real Estate: Single Family Housing

Zillow Home Value Index, Olympia and Comparable (Population Rank) Metros | Q3 2019

Sources: Zillow, 2019.

$374k $328k $327k $303k $269k $256k $241k $215k

$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000

Bremerton, WA Greeley, CO Olympia, WA Kennewick, WA Merced, CA Crestview-Fort Walton Beach- Destin, FL Wilmington, NC Yakima, WA

19

Real Estate: Single Family Housing

Change in Zillow Home Value Index, United States and Washington Metros | 2009-2019

Sources: Zillow, 2019. 16.5% 1.1% 9.8% 6.1% 12.9% 9.8% 6.4% 10.0% 8.4% 5.0% 15.1% 7.4% 12.0% 4.5% 11.9% 4.9% 8.3% 7.2% 6.6% 3.4% 7.8% 6.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

One Year (2018-2019) 10 Year (2009-2019)

20

Real Estate: Multifamily Housing

Average Lease Rate and Change in Lease Rate, Thurston County | 2009-2019

Sources: CoStar, 2019.

• 6.

6.0% 0%

• 4.

4.0% 0%

• 2.

2.0% 0% 0. 0.0% 0% 2.0% 2.0% 4. 4.0% 0% 6. 6.0% 0% 8. 8.0% 0% 10. 10.0% 0% 12. 12.0% 0%

$0.0 $0.00 $0.2 $0.20 $0.4 $0.40 $0.6 $0.60 $0.8 $0.80 $1.0 $1.00 $1.2 $1.20 $1.4 $1.40 $1.6 $1.60

2009 2009 Q1 2009 2009 Q2 2009 2009 Q3 2009 2009 Q4 2010 2010 Q1 2010 2010 Q2 2010 2010 Q3 2010 2010 Q4 2011 2011 Q1 2011 2011 Q2 2011 2011 Q3 2011 2011 Q4 2012 2012 Q1 2012 2012 Q2 2012 2012 Q3 2012 2012 Q4 2013 2013 Q1 2013 2013 Q2 2013 2013 Q3 2013 2013 Q4 2014 2014 Q1 2014 2014 Q2 2014 2014 Q3 2014 2014 Q4 2015 2015 Q1 2015 2015 Q2 2015 2015 Q3 2015 2015 Q4 2016 2016 Q1 2016 2016 Q2 2016 2016 Q3 2016 2016 Q4 2017 2017 Q1 2017 2017 Q2 2017 2017 Q3 2017 2017 Q4 2018 2018 Q1 2018 2018 Q2 2018 2018 Q3 2018 2018 Q4 2019 2019 Q1 2019 2019 Q2 QTD

Lease per SF Lease Rate Change (Y/Y %)

Rate / SF Rate Change

21

Real Estate: Multifamily Housing

Vacancy Rate, Thurston County | 2009-2019

Sources: CoStar, 2019.

5.1%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%

22

Real Estate: Multifamily Housing

Units Delivered (Net of Demolition), Thurston County | 2009-2019

Sources: CoStar, 2019.

(20 (200) 0) (10 (100) 0) 10 100 20 200 30 300 40 400 50 500

2009 2009 Q1 2009 2009 Q3 2010 2010 Q1 2010 2010 Q3 2011 2011 Q1 2011 2011 Q3 2012 2012 Q1 2012 2012 Q3 2013 2013 Q1 2013 2013 Q3 2014 2014 Q1 2014 2014 Q3 2015 2015 Q1 2015 2015 Q3 2016 2016 Q1 2016 2016 Q3 2017 2017 Q1 2017 2017 Q3 2018 2018 Q1 2018 2018 Q3 2019 2019 Q1 QT QTD

23

Real Estate: Commercial Office

Vacancy Rate, Lewis, Thurston, Pierce and King Counties | 2009-2019

Sources: CoStar, 2019.

0% 0% 2% 2% 4% 4% 6% 6% 8% 8% 10% 12% 14%

TH THUR URSTON STON LE LEWIS WIS PI PIERCE KI KING NG

24

Real Estate: Commercial Office

Average Lease Rate, All Classes, Lewis, Thurston, Pierce and King Counties | 2009-2019

Sources: CoStar, 2019.

$0.00 .00 $5.00 .00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00

THURSTON LEWIS PIERCE KING

25

Real Estate: Commercial Office

Absorption (Square Feet), Thurston County| 2009-2019

Sources: CoStar, 2019.

(40 (400,0 ,000) (30 (300,0 ,000) (20 (200,0 ,000) (10 (100,0 ,000) 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2010 Q3 2011 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2013 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2016 Q3 2017 Q2 2018 Q1 2018 Q4 QTD

26

Real Estate: Commercial Office

Deliveries (Square Feet, net of demolitions), Thurston County| 2009-2019

Sources: CoStar, 2019. (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 100,000 200,000 300,000

2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q3 2014 Q1 2014 Q3 2015 Q1 2015 Q3 2016 Q1 2016 Q3 2017 Q1 2017 Q3 2018 Q1 2018 Q3 2019 Q1 QTD

27

Real Estate: Industrial

Vacancy Rate, Lewis, Thurston, Pierce and King Counties | 2009-2019

Sources: CoStar, 2019.

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

THURSTON LEWIS PIERCE KING

28

Real Estate: Industrial

Lease Rate, Lewis, Thurston, Pierce and King Counties | 2009-2019

Sources: CoStar, 2019.

$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00

THURSTON LEWIS PIERCE KING

29

Real Estate: Industrial

Absorption (Square Feet), Thurston County| 2009-2019

Sources: CoStar, 2019.

(400,000) (200,000) 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000

30

Real Estate: Industrial

Deliveries (Square Feet, net of demolitions), Thurston County| 2009-2019

Sources: CoStar, 2019. (400,000) (200,000) 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000

31

A little theory

32

What is economic development?

TRADE SHOWS

Branding

Marketing, Promotion

SITE SELECTION SUPPORT

Entrepreneurial Support

Higher Education Workforce Supports BUSINESS CLIMATE

Permitting,

Business Support BASIC NEEDS

Housing TRANSPORTATION

Public Safety

Schools & Early Childhood

Parks & Trails

PUBLIC HEALTH

VIBRANT NEIGHBORHOODS CULTURAL ASSETS

Go after er what t you u want nt Work with what you’ve got Be a good

• d place

e to live

Jobs (Thurston County)

1990 - 2019

Sources: Washington Employment Security Department., 2019.

15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000 90,000 105,000 120,000 135,000

Jobs

2019 117,000 00 job

• bs

286,000 00 people

Actua tuals Washington State ESD Forec ecast st Washington State ESD 117,0 ,000 00 2019 2019 130,0 ,000 00 2027 2027 101,0 ,000 00 2008 2008 64,00 000 1990 1990

Jobs in Thurston County

2003 - 2019

34

2,790 1,930 2,820 2,850 2,900 1,610

• 3,200
• 1,230
• 330

420 3,090 3,180 3,020 4,070 2,880 3,940 2,390

• 4,500
• 3,750
• 3,000
• 2,250
• 1,500
• 750

750 1,500 2,250 3,000 3,750 4,500 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

New Jobs

Sources: Washington Employment Security Department., 2019.

35

Job Growth in Thurston County

2003 - 2019

3.2% 2.2% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 1.6%

• 3.2%
• 1.3%
• 0.3%

0.4% 3.2% 3.2% 2.9% 3.8% 2.6% 3.5% 2.0%

• 4.5%
• 3.5%
• 2.5%
• 1.5%
• 0.5%

0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Growth Rate

Sources: Washington Employment Security Department., 2019.

Jobs and People

Change in Jobs & Net Migration, Thurston County | 1991 - 2018

36

Jobs

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2019; Washington Office of Financial Management, 2019.

• 5,500
• 4,500
• 3,500
• 2,500
• 1,500
• 500

500 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 5,500

Jobs People 2018 - 2019 2,450 Jobs 3,460 Net In-migration

Jobs and People

Regional Commute Patterns, 2017

37 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., 2019.

Jobs and People

Regional Commute Patterns, 2017

38 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., 2019.

Where people who work in Thurston County live Where people who live in Thurston County work

Count Share Thurston County 63,647 54.7% Pierce County 12,420 10.7% King County 9,138 7.9% Lewis County 5,449 4.7% Mason County 3,502 3.0% Snohomish County 3,464 3.0% Grays Harbor County 3,047 2.6% Clark County 2,355 2.0% Kitsap County 1,727 1.5% Cowlitz County 1,570 1.3% All Other Locations 10,076 8.7% Total Thurston Employees 116,395 Count Share Thurston County 63,647 56.5% Pierce County 15,343 13.6% King County 15,245 13.5% Lewis County 3,472 3.1% Snohomish County 2,811 2.5% Mason County 2,143 1.9% Grays Harbor County 1,336 1.2% Clark County 1,307 1.2% Kitsap County 944 0.8% Spokane County 867 0.8% All Other Locations 5,535 4.9% Total Thurston Residents 112,650

39

Migrations to Thurston County

By Origin of Newly Issued Driver’s Licenses, Thurston County | Past 12 Months

Origin in Driver ers California 1,219 Oregon 488 Texas 412 Arizona 291 Florida 241 Colorado 235 Alaska 168 Georgia 145 Idaho 143 North Carolina 141 Total U.S. 5,770 International 184 Total l Mig igratio rations 5,95 954 4

Sources: Washington Department of Licensing, 2019.

40

Population Growth & Housing Unit Change

Thurston County | 2006 – 2019

2015 2010 2005

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017; Washington Office of Financial Management, 2019.

• 3,500
• 2,500
• 1,500
• 500

500 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500

Annual Households & Housing Unit Change in Thurston County, 2006 - 2019 Households Housing Units

41

Population and Housing Units

Thurston County Cities | 2019

Population Housing Units Olympia 52,770 25,140 Lacey 51,270 21,710 Tumwater 24,060 10,540 Yelm 9,140 3,310 Rainier 2,110 830 Tenino 1,840 780 Bucoda 580 250 Thurston County 285,800 119,940

Sources: Washington State Office of Financial Management, 2019.

42

Population and Housing Growth in Thurston Cities

CAGR 2009 – 2017

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019; Washington Office of Financial Management, 2019.

1.2%

• 1.2%

0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 1.8% 3.9% 4.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 1.3% 0.9% 1.3% 2.4% 2.9%

• 1.5%
• 0.5%

0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% Thurston County Tenino Bucoda Olympia Rainier Lacey Tumwater Yelm Housing Units Households

43

Population Forecast

Thurston County | 2000 - 2040

Sources: Washington Office of Financial Management, 2019.

438,800 370,700 312,100 207,400 285,800 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000

Living Wage in Thurston County, 2018

Household Income

$26,100 $12.60 per hour

Living Alone

$69,400

Sources: M.I.T. Living Wage Calculator, 2019; Community Attributes Inc., 2019.

45

Assessed Land Value

Thurston County | 2019

Sources: Thurston County, 2019; Community Attributes Inc., 2019.

46

Jobs by Industry (Thurston County)

Ranked by Total Covered Employment| 2018

Source: Washington State ESD, 2019.

Industry 2008 2008 2018 2018 Net New Jobs CAGR Government 36,320 38,280 1,960 0.5% Health care and social assistance 11,199 15,236 4,037 3.1% Retail trade 11,062 12,812 1,750 1.5% Accommodation and food services 7,737 9,369 1,632 1.9% Construction 3,926 6,011 2,085 4.4% Administrative and waste services 3,249 5,979 2,730 6.3% Professional and technical services 3,273 4,738 1,465 3.8% Other services, except public administration 4,218 3,877 (341)

• 0.8%

Wholesale trade 2,743 3,112 369 1.3% Manufacturing 3,088 3,060 (28)

• 0.1%

Finance and insurance 2,349 2,518 169 0.7% Transportation and warehousing 1,684 2,378 694 3.5% Educational services 1,243 2,129 886 5.5% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 1,337 2,006 669 4.1% Information 1,108 1,574 466 3.6% Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1,195 1,537 342 2.5% Real estate and rental and leasing 1,256 1,307 51 0.4% Management of companies and enterprises 682 887 205 2.7% Utilities 261 188 (73)

• 3.2%

Mining 40 15 (25)

• 9.3%

Total Covered 97,970 117,013 19,043 1.8%

Jobs by Industry (Thurston County)

Ranked by Net New Jobs | 2008 - 2018

47 Sources: Washington Employment Security Department., 2019.

4,380 2,200 1,450 1,430 1,390 1,330 1,220 770 660 550 (1,000)

• 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Health care and social assistance Government Accommodation and food services Retail trade Transportation and warehousing

New Jobs

Professional and technical services Accommodation and food services Administrative and waste services Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting Education services

Jobs by Industry (Thurston County)

2008 - 2018

48 Sources: Washington Employment Security Department., 2019.

350 310 260 180 100

• (40)

(70) (310) (1,000)

• 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Wholesale trade Information Finance and insurance Mining Manufacturing

New Jobs

Arts, entertainment, and recreation Information Management of companies and enterprises Finance and insurance

49

Employment by Establishment Size

Thurston County| 2017

13.6% 26.2% 10.9% 13.2% 9.1% 13.3% 13.7% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 1-9 Employees 10-49 Employees 50-99 Employees 100-249 Employees 250-499 Employees 500-999 Employees 1,000+ Employees

41% or 60K

Small Business* Employees in Thurston County

*Note: Small Business are defined as firms employing fewer than 100 employees. Sources: Washington Employment Security Department, 2019.

50

U.S. & Global Trends and Outlook

Global GDP Percent Change

1980 1980-2023 | Real l GDP

5.6% 5.4% 3.7% 3.5%

• 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Forecast

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

• 1.0%

Source: International Monetary Fund, 2019; Community Attributes Inc., 2019.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Percent of Global GDP by Country

1980-2023 | Real GDP

EU All Others Japan China United States

Source: International Monetary Fund, 2019; Community Attributes Inc., 2019.

7.24

• 2.54
• 5.0
• 2.5

0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022

• 5.0
• 2.5

0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022

China, U.S. and Global GDP, Percent Change

1980-2023 | Real GDP World United States China

15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0%

• 2.5%
• 5.0%

Source: International Monetary Fund, 2019; Community Attributes Inc., 2019.

• 6.0%
• 4.0%
• 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

Real GDP, year-over-year growth (%)

1990-2024

54 Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2019.

Forecast Historical

China, India, Emerging, Developing Asia Emerging, Developing Europe U.S. Euro Area World

Total Trade Volume

Goods and services, annual % change

55 Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2019.

Assumes stability in global trade regime, which could be undermined in 2019.

Historical Forecast 0.6% 3.8% 5.9% 11.1% 8.0% 9.4% 8.0% 3.1%

• 10.5%

12.5% 7.3% 3.1% 3.6% 3.9% 2.8% 2.2% 5.4% 3.8% 3.4% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8%

• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15%

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product

Historic and Forecast, 2000-2024

56 Sources: St. Louis FRED, 2018; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 2018 (for years 2018-2019); International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, 2018 (for years 2020-2022).

Historical Forecast

4.1% 1.0% 1.7% 2.9% 3.8% 3.5% 2.9% 1.9%

• 0.1%
• 2.5%

2.6% 1.6% 2.2% 1.8% 2.5% 2.9% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 2.3% 2.4% 2.2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

• 3.5%
• 1.5%

0.5% 2.5% 4.5%

Historical Forecast

57

Interest Rates

One month h Fed Funds ds Rate and LIBOR, R, 1990 - 2019

0% 3% 6% 9%

Fed Funds Effective Rate LIBOR

Sources: St. Louis FRED, 2019.

58

Your Foreboding Recession Money Shot: Inverted Yield Curve

Ten Year Treasury Yields MINUS 3-Month Treasury Yields: 2005 - 2019

• 1.0%
• 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% J-2005 J-2006 J-2007 J-2008 J-2009 J-2010 J-2011 J-2012 J-2013 J-2014 J-2015 J-2016 J-2017 J-2018 J-2019

Sources: St. Louis FRED, 2019.

59

Federal Deficit

1972-2017

• $2,000
• $1,500
• $1,000
• $500

$0 $500 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018

Billions 2018 $

Debt-to-personal Income (%) Per Capita Debt, 2018

60

Debt Per Capita

1968-2018

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017

Revolving debt Non-revolving debt

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018

Revolving debt Non-revolving debt

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018

61

Regional Strengths, Challenges & Opportunities

Elements of a Healthy Community

Basic Needs Vibrant Communities Arts & Culture Economic Opportunity Environment Education Health & Wellness

Emplo loymen ent Wage e levels ls Up Upwar ard mobi bilit lity Pover erty ty Ac Access ss to services ices Infrastructu astructure Air r & wat water er qu quality lity Ecosyst

• systems

ems & s spec ecie ies Natural al reso sources Meeti ting standa dards Gradu aduatio ation rates es Workfor

• rce alignme

ignment Safety Engagem agemen ent Mobi bility lity Ac Access ss Ac Activ tivit ity Heritage itage Longevity ity Nu Nutriti ition

• n

Fitness ess

UN Sustainable Development Goals

64

Economic Growth Foundations

TRADE SHOWS

Branding

Marketing, Promotion

SITE SELECTION SUPPORT

Entrepreneurial Support

Higher Education Workforce Supports BUSINESS CLIMATE

Permitting,

Business Support BASIC NEEDS

Housing TRANSPORTATION

Public Safety

Schools & Early Childhood

Parks & Trails

PUBLIC HEALTH

VIBRANT NEIGHBORHOODS CULTURAL ASSETS Go after what you want Work with what you’ve got Be a good d place ce to live

65

Strengths

Momentum Global Presence Talent Attraction Natural Environment

66

Challenges

Housing Education Workforce Supply Business Climate & Fiscal Sustainability 737 & NMA

67

Regional Opportunities

Cloud Technology Triple Bottom Line Mega Regional Connections Artificial Intelligence & Tech Entrepreneurship

68

Thank You

Chris Mefford