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China for the new era
rn bhaskar
RNB@ASIACOMNVERGE.COM
India – Quo Vadis
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China for the new era rn bhaskar RNB@ASIACOMNVERGE.COM India Quo - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
China for the new era rn bhaskar RNB@ASIACOMNVERGE.COM India Quo - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
China for the new era rn bhaskar RNB@ASIACOMNVERGE.COM India Quo Vadis November 2019 RNB@asiaconverge.com 2 Steel Production November 2019 RNB@asiaconverge.com 3 Cement Production November 2019 RNB@asiaconverge.com 4 Steel Prices
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Steel Production
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Cement Production
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Steel Prices
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Reserve currency status is ephemeral
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Source: J P M organ, https:// www.zerohedge.com/ news/ 2019-07-23/ jpmorgan-we-believe-dollar- could-lose-its-status-worlds-reserve-currency
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The US$ dominates, yes, but . . .
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… but US$ share of central bank reserves is falling
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Source: Exante. Data as of September 30,
- 2018. The series is FX-adjusted
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Countries and their DNA
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The writing was on the wall
- Ten years ago, the author predicted that China, India, and Russia
would have to work together.
- Ten years ago, it was obvious that China would have to source water
from Russia
- (https:/ / www.livemint.com/ Companies/ wDLWbd3OWUGppEzYYC0yY
O/ The-Capitalist--With-increasing-water-needs-will-China-deh.html),
- In 2013, the University of Sichuan faculty dismissed my views on
water
- They called these views absurd, unimplementable
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A matter of inevitability
- By end 2015, it was clear that China would begin sourcing much of its
waters from Russia
- (https:/ /en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/ Eastern_Siberia%E2%80%93Pacific_Oc
ean_oil_pipeline).
- Planners in Lanzhou (central China) drew up proposals to pipe and
canal water into the chronically dry region from Siberia’s Lake Baikal
- (https:/ / www.reuters.com/article/ us-china-silkroad-russia-pipelines-
idUSKB.N18819I).
- Implication – expect a big growth phase in middle China.
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Water
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Agriculture too
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China faces a slowdown
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Where are the girls?
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China’s urban rural population trends
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China’s ageing population
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Why India’smiddle class matters for China
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Why China’s education opportunities matter too
- 23,000 Indian students in China
- Of which 21,000 are for medicine
- India needs more doctors
- China needs more Indians to like India
- Doctors are extremely important
- The first moves are being made by both countries to make this
relationship grow.
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Hobbling India: Education reforms also needed
China trounces India
Literacy rates: UNESCO's data for 2015 Territory Literacy rate (all) M ale literacy Female literacy Gender difference World average 86.30% 90.00% 82.70% 7.30% India 72.10% 80.90% 62.80% 18.10% China 96.40% 98.20% 94.50% 3.70%
Source: UNESCO, 2015
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Innovation
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What the wise man does at the beginning, the fool does in the end Buffett has reduced the essence of market cycles to just 9 words: "First the innovator, then the imitator, then the idiot"