CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS P r e s e n t e d B y : Lesley Deutch | - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PROJECT INNOVATIONS FOR CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS P r e s e n t e d B y : Lesley Deutch | Principal ldeutch@realestateconsulting.com September 10, 2019

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Demographic Shifts…. 2019 1 YEAR OLDER 3.9 MILLION 2.2 MILLION NEWBORNS MARRIAGES 2.7 MILLION 1.0 MILLION DEATHS DIVORCES

…Lead to New Design Trends

Define the Generations by Decade Born to Simplify Your Decision Making 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H US Born Foreign Born 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1930 – 39 1940 – 49 1950 – 59 1960 – 69 1970 – 79 1980 – 89 1990 – 99 2000-09 2010+ Y E A R S B O R N Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections

Those Born in the 1930s Learned to Save Early in Life 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H US Born Foreign Born 5.0 4.0 3.0 11 M 2.0 1.0 0.0 1930 – 39 1940 – 49 1950 – 59 1960 – 69 1970 – 79 1980 – 89 1990 – 99 1930s Savers 2000-09 2010+ Age 79-88 Y E A R S B O R N Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections

Retirees Had Double the Economic Growth That Their Children Have Had AVERAGE GDP GROWTH PER PERSON — PRIME WORKING YEARS (25 -54) 2.5% 2.4% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.5% REAL GDP GROWTH 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s Savers Achievers Innovators Equalers* Balancers* Sharers* GENERATION Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Labor Statistics data * Prime working years not yet complete

Bundled Golf

The High-Achieving Earliest Boomers Have Retired 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H US Born Foreign Born 5.0 4.0 25 M 3.0 11 M 2.0 1.0 1940s Achievers Age 69-78 1930s Savers Age 79-88 0.0 1930 – 39 1940 – 49 1950 – 59 1960 – 69 1970 – 79 1980 – 89 1990 – 99 2000-09 2010+ Y E A R S B O R N Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections

The Achievers Led the Decline in Stay-at-Home Moms SHARE OF MOMS AGED 25 – 34 WITH CHILDREN UNDER 6 WHO STAY AT HOME FULL TIME TO TAKE CARE OF HOME/FAMILY 50% 48.1% 1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 45% 1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers 40% 1980s Sharers 35% 30% 29.0% 24.2% 25% 20% 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

Great Entertainment Spaces

The Innovative Boomers Are Now Retiring in Droves 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H US Born Foreign Born 5.0 39 M 4.0 25 M 3.0 11 M 2.0 1950s Innovators 1.0 Age 59-68 1930s Savers 1940s Achievers Age 79-88 Age 69-78 0.0 1930 – 39 1940 – 49 1950 – 59 1960 – 69 1970 – 79 1980 – 89 1990 – 99 2000-09 2010+ Y E A R S B O R N Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections

Surging Retirement Will Slow the Economy and Create New Types of Demand 65+ POPULATION BY DECADE OF BIRTH 1960s Equalers 1950s Innovators 1940s Achievers 1930s Savers Pre 1930s 70 FORECAST 60 50 65+ POPULATION (MILLIONS) 40 30 20 10 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018P 2020P 2022P 2024P YEAR Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates and 2017 National Projections

Modern 55+ Communities

More 1960s-Born Women Graduated from College than Men 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H US Born Foreign Born 43 M 5.0 39 M 4.0 25 M 3.0 11 M 2.0 1.0 1960s Equalers Age 49-58 1930s Savers 1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators Age 79-88 Age 69-78 Age 59-68 0.0 1930 – 39 1940 – 49 1950 – 59 1960 – 69 1970 – 79 1980 – 89 1990 – 99 2000-09 2010+ Y E A R S B O R N Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections

Rising DICE – Dual Income College- Educated DICE SHARE OF ALL MARRIED/PARTNERED HOUSEHOLDS 18% S H A R E O F A L L M A R R I E D / P A R T N E R E D H O U S E H O L D S 16% 17% 14% 14% 12% 11% 10% 8% 8% 6% 4% 5% 2% 2% 0% 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 Y E A R Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Current Population Survey via IPUMS-CPS

Surprising Societal Shift: Rising Rentership for Empty Nesters RENTERSHIP RATE BY AGE, 45 – 64 27.8% 28% 27.6% 27% R E N T E R S H I P P E R C E N T A G E 26% 25% 24% 22.8% 23% 22% 21% 21.3% 20.9% 20% 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Y E A R Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Homes with Pet Options

Homes with Pet Options

23% of the 1970s Balancers Were Born in Another Country 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H US Born Foreign Born 43 M 5.0 39 M 41 M 4.0 25 M 3.0 11 M 2.0 1.0 1970s Balancers Age 39-48 1930s Savers 1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers Age 79-88 Age 69-78 Age 59-68 Age 49-58 0.0 1930 – 39 1940 – 49 1950 – 59 1960 – 69 1970 – 79 1980 – 89 1990 – 99 2000-09 2010+ Y E A R S B O R N Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections

1970s Balancer Homeownership at Their 10-Year High School Reunion HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE FOR 25 – 29 YEAR-OLDS 43% 41% 42% 39% 37% 37% 35% 35% 33% 31% 29% 27% 25% 1950s 1960s 1970s Innovators Equalers Balancers Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of U.S. Census Bureau data

1970s Balancer Homeownership at Their 20-Year High School Reunion HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE FOR 35 – 39 YEAR-OLDS 65% 63% 61% 60% 10% below normal at 55% age 38 52% 50% 45% 1950s 1960s 1970s Innovators Equalers Balancers Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of U.S. Census Bureau data

Dual-Income Households Peaked in 2000 FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE, AGES 20 – 64 80% 73% 71% 69% 70% 61% 1930s Savers 60% 1940s Achievers 50% 50% 1950s Innovators 42% 1960s Equalers 37% 40% 1970s Balancers 1980s Sharers 30% 1990s Connectors 20% 10% 0% 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Y E A R Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Labor Statistics data; color-coded based on the year a generation turns 20

Almost 13% of America Now Rents a Single-Family Home SINGLE-FAMILY RENTAL HOMES AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL HOUSING UNITS 13.0% 12.5% PERCENT OF TOTAL HOUSING UNITS 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YEAR Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data

Single Family Rentals

Single Family Rentals

1980s Sharers Have Led the Disruptive Shift to a Sharing Economy 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H US Born Foreign Born 44 M 43 M 5.0 39 M 41 M 4.0 25 M 3.0 11 M 2.0 1.0 1980s Sharers Age 29-38 1930s Savers 1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers Age 79-88 Age 69-78 Age 59-68 Age 49-58 Age 39-48 0.0 1930 – 39 1940 – 49 1950 – 59 1960 – 69 1970 – 79 1980 – 89 1990 – 99 2000-09 2010+ Y E A R S B O R N Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections

10-Year Reunions Are Now Singles Parties PERCENT OF 25 – 29 YEAR-OLDS SINGLE AND WITHOUT CHILDREN 56% 60% 46% 50% 43% 39% 40% 27% 30% 18% 20% 10% 0% 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

The Single Life Has Allowed the 1980s Sharers to Live Urban URBAN SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD GROW TH 25% 21% 20% 15% 10% 8% 7% 10% 5% 0% 2010 – 2015 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data