CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS P r e s e n t e d B y : Lesley Deutch | - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PROJECT INNOVATIONS FOR

CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

P r e s e n t e d B y :

Lesley Deutch | Principal

ldeutch@realestateconsulting.com September 10, 2019

A Unique Perspective on the Industry

Monthly Analysis

• n 70 MSAs

600+ Consulting studies per year 350+ Builders surveyed monthly DesignLens Consumer and Product Insights

Our Diverse Clients Help Us Get it Right

Demographic Shifts….

1 YEAR OLDER

1.0 MILLION DIVORCES 2.7 MILLION DEATHS 2.2 MILLION MARRIAGES 3.9 MILLION NEWBORNS

2019

…Lead to New Design Trends

US Born Foreign Born 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H

Y E A R S B O R N

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

Define the Generations by Decade Born to Simplify Your Decision Making

US Born Foreign Born

Those Born in the 1930s Learned to Save Early in Life

2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H

Y E A R S B O R N

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

11 M

1930s Savers

Age 79-88

Retirees Had Double the Economic Growth That Their Children Have Had

AVERAGE GDP GROWTH PER PERSON— PRIME WORKING YEARS (25 -54)

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Labor Statistics data * Prime working years not yet complete

2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

REAL GDP GROWTH GENERATION

1980s Sharers* 1970s Balancers* 1960s Equalers* 1950s Innovators 1940s Achievers 1930s Savers

Bundled Golf

The High-Achieving Earliest Boomers Have Retired

Y E A R S B O R N

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M 11 M

1930s Savers

1940s Achievers

Age 69-78 US Born Foreign Born 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H

The Achievers Led the Decline in Stay-at-Home Moms

SHARE OF MOMS AGED 25–34 WITH CHILDREN UNDER 6 WHO STAY AT HOME FULL TIME TO TAKE CARE OF HOME/FAMILY

48.1% 24.2% 29.0% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers 1980s Sharers

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

Great Entertainment Spaces

The Innovative Boomers Are Now Retiring in Droves

Y E A R S B O R N

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M 39 M 11 M

1930s Savers

1940s Achievers

1950s Innovators

Age 59-68 US Born Foreign Born 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H

Surging Retirement Will Slow the Economy and Create New Types of Demand

65+ POPULATION BY DECADE OF BIRTH

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates and 2017 National Projections

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018P 2020P 2022P 2024P

Pre 1930s

65+ POPULATION (MILLIONS) YEAR

1930s Savers 1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers

FORECAST

Modern 55+ Communities

More 1960s-Born Women Graduated from College than Men

Y E A R S B O R N

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M 39 M 43 M 11 M

1930s Savers

1940s Achievers

1950s Innovators

1960s Equalers

Age 49-58 US Born Foreign Born 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H

S H A R E O F A L L M A R R I E D / P A R T N E R E D H O U S E H O L D S Y E A R

Rising DICE – Dual Income College- Educated

DICE SHARE OF ALL MARRIED/PARTNERED HOUSEHOLDS

2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016

21.3% 22.8% 20.9% 27.8% 27.6%

20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Surprising Societal Shift: Rising Rentership for Empty Nesters

RENTERSHIP RATE BY AGE, 45 –64

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

R E N T E R S H I P P E R C E N T A G E Y E A R

Homes with Pet Options

Homes with Pet Options

23% of the 1970s Balancers Were Born in Another Country

Y E A R S B O R N

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M 39 M 43 M 41 M 11 M

1930s Savers

1940s Achievers

1950s Innovators

1960s Equalers

1970s Balancers

Age 39-48 US Born Foreign Born 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H

1970s Balancer Homeownership at Their 10-Year High School Reunion

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE FOR 25 –29 YEAR-OLDS

1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers

37% 35% 42%

25% 27% 29% 31% 33% 35% 37% 39% 41% 43%

1950s Innovators

Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of U.S. Census Bureau data

1970s Balancer Homeownership at Their 20-Year High School Reunion

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE FOR 35 –39 YEAR-OLDS

61% 63% 52%

45% 50% 55% 60% 65%

10% below normal at age 38

1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers 1950s Innovators

Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of U.S. Census Bureau data

Dual-Income Households Peaked in 2000

FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE, AGES 20 –64

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Labor Statistics data; color-coded based on the year a generation turns 20

37% 42% 50% 61% 69% 73% 71%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Y E A R

1930s Savers 1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers 1980s Sharers 1990s Connectors

10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Almost 13% of America Now Rents a Single-Family Home

SINGLE-FAMILY RENTAL HOMES AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL HOUSING UNITS

PERCENT OF TOTAL HOUSING UNITS YEAR

Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data

Single Family Rentals

Single Family Rentals

1980s Sharers Have Led the Disruptive Shift to a Sharing Economy

Y E A R S B O R N

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M 39 M 43 M 41 M 44 M 11 M

1930s Savers

1970s Balancers

1940s Achievers

1950s Innovators

1960s Equalers

1980s Sharers

Age 29-38 US Born Foreign Born 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

10-Year Reunions Are Now Singles Parties

PERCENT OF 25–29 YEAR-OLDS SINGLE AND WITHOUT CHILDREN

18% 56% 27% 39% 43%

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

46%

The Single Life Has Allowed the 1980s Sharers to Live Urban

URBAN SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD GROW TH

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010–2015

21% 7% 10% 8%

Growth Has Been Young Adults and Empty Nesters

R E C E N T C H A N G E I N A D U LT P O P U L AT I O N B Y A G E , 2 0 0 8 – 2 0 1 8

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates and 2017 National Projections

• 3.0
• 2.0
• 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

N E T N U M B E R O F P E O P L E ( M I L L I O N S ) A G E

+8.3 M +3.5 M 55–64 Empty Nester Years 20–29 Young Adult Years

Population Growth is Now Shifting to Family Years

F U T U R E C H A N G E I N A D U LT P O P U L AT I O N B Y A G E 2 0 1 8 – 2 0 2 8

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates and 2014 National Projections

• 3.0
• 2.0
• 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

N E T N U M B E R O F P E O P L E ( M I L L I O N S ) A G E

• 2.4M

(-5.6%)

• 0.5M

(-1.1%) 55–64 Empty Nester Years 20–29 Young Adult Years

A Push for Individuality

1990s Connectors Use Their Phones Whenever Possible

Y E A R S B O R N

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M 39 M 43 M 41 M 44 M 45 M 11 M

1930s Savers

1970s Balancers

1980s Sharers

1940s Achievers

1950s Innovators

1960s Equalers

1990s Connectors

Age 19-28 US Born Foreign Born 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H

• 3.1
• 4.9
• 3.8
• 1.4
• 0.1

1.6 4.3 14.0 5.9

• 5

5 10 15 Pre 1930s 1930s Savers 1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers 1980s Sharers 1990s Connectors 2000s Globals

13.3 million losses 25.8 million gains

The 1990s Connectors are the Primary Drivers of Near-Term Household Formation

NET CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS BY DECADE BORN, 2016–2025 (MILLIONS)

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Modular Apartments

Co Living

The 2000s Globals are Diverse and Globally Aware

Y E A R S B O R N

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M 39 M 43 M 41 M 44 M 45 M 42 M 11 M

1930s Savers

1970s Balancers

1980s Sharers

1940s Achievers

1950s Innovators

1960s Equalers

2000s Globals

Age 9-18 US Born Foreign Born 2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N B Y P L A C E O F B I R T H

How Will They Want to Live?

Follow The Trends A New View on Generations Huge Demographic Shifts Design Innovations

PROJECT INNOVATIONS FOR

CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

P r e s e n t e d B y :

Lesley Deutch | Principal

ldeutch@realestateconsulting.com September 10, 2019