Jersey resident population 2017 estimate www.gov.je/statistics - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jersey resident population 2017 estimate www.gov.je/statistics - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 22, 2023 483 likes •807 views

Jersey resident population 2017 estimate www.gov.je/statistics @jsystats Jersey resident population estimate - 2017 Summary At the end of 2017, the population was estimated at: Over the last year, the population has increased by

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Jersey resident population 2017 estimate

www.gov.je/statistics @jsystats

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2017:

105,500

2000: 88,300 2012: 99,000 2007: 94,000

Summary

Jersey resident population estimate - 2017

  • At the end of 2017, the population was estimated at:
  • Over the last year, the population has increased

by 1,300 persons

  • Over the last decade, the population

has increased by 11,500

1,200 more in-migration than out 100 more births than deaths

Deaths Births

105,500

Statistics Jersey

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  • 1. The census on 27 March 2011 provides a baseline count at a point in time
  • 2. Add on net migration - administrative sources used to estimate net migration using: annual change in

3. The Census also provides us with an estimate of the proportion of inward migrants who stay, and estimates

  • f non-economically active dependents to feed into the estimation calculations

4. Add on natural change - births and deaths data from Superintendent Registrar The accuracy of the estimates relies on migrant behaviour being similar to that at the time of the 2011 Census.

Method

Population estimate - 2017

97,857

Preschool School aged Workers Statistics Jersey

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Components of change

Jersey resident population estimate - 2017

Natural change (births – deaths) Net migration (inward – outward) Deaths Births Population change Statistics Jersey Statistics Jersey

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Natural change

Jersey resident population estimate - 2017

189 89 245 223 217 191 323 295 247 269 386 360 298 307 219 198 133 930 971 950 1,038 1,066 1,123 989 1009 949 841 748 759 743 797 763 682 811 816

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Natural growth Births Deaths

Statistics Jersey Statistics Jersey

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Net migration

Jersey resident population estimate - 2017

300 300 300 700 1,100 1,400 1,100 500 700 600 500 700 700 1,500 1,300 1,200 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Statistics Jersey Statistics Jersey

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Total change

Jersey resident population estimate - 2017

300 300 300 700 1,100 1,400 1,100 500 700 600 500 700 700 1,500 1,300 1,200 190 90 250 220 220 190 320 300 250 270 390 360 300 310 220 200 130 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Natural growth Net migration

Statistics Jersey Statistics Jersey

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2017:

105,500

2000: 88,300 2012: 99,000 2007: 94,000

Summary

Jersey resident population estimate - 2017

  • At the end of 2017, the population was estimated at:
  • Over the last year, the population has increased

by 1,300 persons

  • Over the last decade, the population

has increased by 11,500

1,200 more in-migration than out 100 more births than deaths

Deaths Births

105,500

Statistics Jersey Statistics Jersey

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Jersey resident population projections 2016 release

@JsyStats Statistics Jersey

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Jersey Resident Population projections

What will the size of Jersey’s resident population be in 2035?

How many school aged children will there be? How many pensioners will there be? How many babies will be being born each year? How many households (and homes) will be needed? What about the size of hospitals, schools and other public services? How many working age people will there be, and how many non-economically active people will there be?

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Jersey Resident Population projections

How do we predict the future population of Jersey? We can’t. What we currently know…

  • Total population estimate – 105,500 at year-end 2017
  • Net migration was 1,200 in 2017
  • Net migration has averaged 1,300 per year over the last 3 years
  • Net migration has averaged 900 per year over the last 10 years
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How we model Jersey’s future population

Start with the known population size at year end 2015 Add babies born Add inward migrants Subtract deaths Subtract outward migrants Add a year of age to everyone Finish with the population at year end 2016

!

Age-specific fertility rates Age-specific mortality rates Estimates of probabilities

  • f leaving

??

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How we model Jersey’s migration

  • 1. We can estimate the number leaving in each year…
  • 2. We can then model the number arriving in each year at different levels so that…

a) the number arriving equals the number leaving (‘net nil’) b) the number arriving is higher than the number leaving by a certain amount – a ‘net migration level’

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How we model Jersey’s migration – the levels

  • 1. Zero migration
  • 2. Net nil (inward = outward)
  • 3. +325 (325 more persons coming in than leaving)
  • 4. +700 (700 more persons coming in than leaving)
  • 5. +1,000 (1,000 more persons coming in than leaving)
  • 6. +1,500 (1,500 more persons coming in than leaving)
  • 7. +2,000 (2,000 more persons coming in than leaving)
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Interpreting the results

Dependency ratio

non-working age / working age

  • as a population ‘ages’ the dependency ratio increases
  • high dependency ratio = high numbers of non-workers relative to workers

Working age population size

  • a measure of potential workforce size
  • productivity and economic activity of this group also key

Overall population size

  • implications for the Island’s resources, quality of life
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The results

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If Jersey had no inward or outward migration…

Births and deaths and ageing will still affect population size and structure

2015 102,700 2025 104,600 2035 104,100 2045 101,200 2055 96,100 2065 89,500 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total

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2015 102,700 2025 104,900 2035 105,500 2045 104,500 2055 101,900 2065 98,600 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total

If inward equalled outward migration (‘net nil’)…

Inward migrants tend to be younger than outward migrants, affecting the size and age structure of the population, in addition to those changes from births, deaths and ageing

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If inward migration equalled outward migration plus: +325 +700 +1,000 +1,500 +2,000 persons…

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Total population size - net migration at +325

2015 102,700 2025 108,400 2035 113,100 2045 116,500 2055 118,800 2065 120,500 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total

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Total population size - net migration at +700

2015 102,700 2025 112,500 2035 121,800 2045 130,300 2055 138,200 2065 145,800 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total

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Total population size - net migration at +1,000

2015 102,700 2025 115,700 2035 128,800 2045 141,400 2055 153,700 2065 166,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total

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Total population size - net migration at +1,500

2015 102,700 2025 121,200 2035 140,400 2045 159,900 2055 179,500 2065 199,700 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total

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Total population size - net migration at +2,000

2015 102,700 2025 126,600 2035 152,000 2045 178,400 2055 205,400 2065 233,400 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total

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Total Population at different levels of migration

2015 102,700 2025 104,900 2035 105,500 2045 104,500 2055 101,900 2065 98,600 2015 102,700 2025 126,600 2035 152,000 2045 178,400 2055 205,400 2065 233,400

  • 20,000

40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Net nil migration +325 +700 +1,000 +1,500 +2,000

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Dependency ratio at different levels of migration

2015 50% 2025 59% 2035 71% 2045 77% 2055 80% 2065 81% 2015 50% 2025 53% 2035 57% 2045 57% 2055 57% 2065 59% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Net nil migration +325 +700 +1,000 +1,500 +2,000

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Population pyramids

  • 1200
  • 800
  • 400

400 800 1200 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

2015

Males Females

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Population pyramids – year 2035

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Projected change: 2035 compared to 2015 Under the current trend of +1,000 net migration

Net migration is the difference between the number of people arriving and those leaving the Island each year additional private

households

13,200

additional

children

aged 4-10

1,500

additional permanent

residents

26,100

Total population in 2035: 128,800 Total private households in 2035: 57,340 Total children aged 4-10 in 2035: 9,200

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What’s next?

Planning:

  • Departments use the figures to plan and provision for the future size

and structure of the population of Jersey – e.g. schools, hospital, transport, state pension, Island Plan Policy:

  • The projections results can feed into discussions and decisions on

population policy for Jersey Statistics:

  • Continue to develop methods of accurate, timely population

measurement (e-census?)

  • Particularly important to find a means of tracking of inward and
  • utward migration, not just net