SLIDE 1
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC AND POPULATION TRENDS IN BOTSHABELO: POLICY IMPLICATIONS
LEJONE NTEMA AND LOCHNER MARAIS 10 OCTOBER 2013 PRESENTED AT THE STATSSA CONFERENCE ON EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY MAKING
CE EN NT TR RE E F FO OR R D DE EV VE EL LO OP PM ME EN NT T S SU UP PP PO OR RT T
U UN NI IV VE ER RS SI IT TY Y O OF F T TH HE E F FR RE EE E S ST TA AT TE E
SLIDE 2 BACKGROUND
- ! Botshabelo was created by apartheid policies
- ! As a strategy to ensure displacement of black
urbanisation to areas behind “homeland” boundaries
- ! Settlements commonly known as hidden urbanities
(functionally urban but located away from the functional urban areas)
- ! Typical example of fragmented apartheid planning
SLIDE 3 POPULATION SIZE IN BOTSHABELO
!"#$% &'()*#+',%-,.% /,,)#*%0$'123%$#2"% 45,6"%($"75')4%8"#$% !"#"$ %#&'''$ !"('$ )'&'''$ !"(*$ !+"&+'*$ !*,#$ !""!$ !##&"%)$ %,($ !"")$ !##&")"$ ','$ %''!$ !#*&)#%$
%'!!$ !*!&(*.$
SLIDE 4
AVERAGE AGE FOR BOTSHABELO POPULATION
/012$ 3402150$$350$ !"(($ !($ !""!$ %'$ !"")$6789:1;0<7$ =>4098?0>8$@8ABC$ %+,*$ !"")$D0>9A9$ %.$ %''!$D0>9A9$ %*,($ %'!!$D0>9A9$ %#,!$
SLIDE 5
MALE / FEMALE RATIO
!"#$% 9%:";#*"% 9%<#*"% 9%:";#*"% 3"#="=% 3')4"3'*=4% !""!$ *.$ +#$ !"")$D0>9A9$ !"")$6=@$ *+,%$ +*,($ .!$ %''!$ *.,#$ +),.$ +#$ %'!!$ *.,!$ +),"$ +),)$
SLIDE 6
AGE DISTRIBUTION OF BOTSHABELO POPULATION
/0"% 6#2"0'$8% >??@%
ABB>% AB>>%
$E>F$ EGF$
$E>F$ EGF$ $E>F$ EGF$
H)$
%*&'*($ !+,%$ %'&#(($ !!,"$ %'&"%'$ !.,($
)-!%$
%"&!!#$ !),)$ .'&*..$ !#,+$ %!&'#+$ !.,($
!.-!#$
%!&%#'$ !%,!$ %'&.#%$ !!,)$ !*&*.!$ !',%$
!(-%"$
+%&!+.$ %.,"$ +'&%#)$ %%,"$ .)&*%!$ %+,!$
.'-."$
%+&#..$ !+$ %*&'%)$ !+,%$ !(&#(#$ !%,.$
+'-+"$
!+&"#+$ (,*$ !#&.#.$ ","$ !*&+'#$ !',%$
*'-*"$
(&+')$ +,($ "&#!+$ *,*$ !!&('"$ #,"$
)'-)+$
.&+'"$ !,"$ .&++($ %,'$ +&'!#$ %,)$
)*I$
#!!"$ +,'$ (!+%$ +,)$ #&#(%$ *,!$
SLIDE 7
WATER ACCESS TO HOUSEHOLDS IN BOTSHABELO
>??@% ABB>% AB>>%
J02K0>8150$7L$:7A90:7<B9$ MN8:$M1802$N>$:7A90$ !),)$ +,)$ .',#$ J02K0>8150$7L$:7A90:7<B9$ MN8:$M1802$7>$981>B$ %+,($ *),*$ )),)$ J02K0>8150$7L$:7A90:7<B9$ MN8:$M1802$MN8:N>$%''?$ L27?$981>B$ *(,'$ !(,+$ !,+$ O8:02$ '$,)$ %',+$ !,.$
SLIDE 8 SANITATION SERVICES PER HOUSEHOLDS
>??@% ABB>% AB>>%
P<A9:$Q7N<08$ #,.$ #,.$ .",*$ R=J$ *.,.$ +(,.$ **,"$ 6AKS08$ .!,+$ .%,.$ %,.$ T7>0$ #,)$ ",.$ !,.$ O8:02$ ',+$ %,($ !,'$
SLIDE 9
NUMBER OF ROOMS PER HOUSE
!"#$% /7"$#0"%,);C"$%'D%$'';4% ("$%3')4"% !"")$ .,'%$ %''!$ .,.($ %'!!$ +,!%$
SLIDE 10
TYPE OF HOUSING UNITS
>??@% ABB>% AB>>%
P72?1<$:7A9N>5$A>N8$ *(,+$ )%,!$ (+,.$ =>L72?1<$:7A9N>5$A>N89$ .%,+$ %),)$ !+,'$
SLIDE 11 INTERNAL MIGRATION IN BOTSHABELO
- ! South to north (combination of factors)
- ! Schools closing down – especially the south part of
Botshabelo
SLIDE 12 INDUSTRY IN BOTSHABELO
- ! Manufacturing sector is dominant in Botshabelo’s
industrial area
- ! Currently contributing 35% to the economic
development of the Botshaeblo’s industrial area
- ! In terms of occupancy levels of industrial sites in this
area-there was a decline in the past three years
- ! The current occupancy level is 80%
SLIDE 13 CONCLUSION
- ! Increased access to services
- ! Increased housing investment
- ! Declining population
- ! Declining school population
- ! School closures
- ! The intention of various IDPs to grow the Botshabelo
economy and to invest in Botshabelo
- ! Declining occupancy levels in the industrial area
- ! How does one reconcile the above?
SLIDE 14 CONTINUED....
- ! Despite improved infrastructure and significant housing
investment there is a continued outflow of school going and working age people
- ! What does this mean for future planning?
