Challenges and Opportunities in Global Raw Materials Market - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Challenges and Opportunities in Global Raw Materials Market Barbaros COREKOGLU Markets, Trade & Sustainability 28 June 2016 Porto, Portugal Outline COCERAL facts and figures Global Market Situation Global Weather Conditions
Barbaros COREKOGLU Markets, Trade & Sustainability 28 June 2016 Porto, Portugal
– Global Weather Conditions – Global Grain Supply and Demand – Grain Stocks and Prices
– General picture: Grain Production, Exports and Stocks; import needs
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30 Member Associations 19 EU countries 2 Associated: Switzerland and Serbia 2700 companies 26 Member Associations 18 EU countries Associated Members
1 Extraordinary Member
3500 Companies EU association representing the trade with cereals, oilseeds, rice, feedstuffs, olive oil and agrosupply Grain merchants, storekeeper and/or international traders
4
Source: Thomson Reuters
Source: IGC May Report
15.3% 35.5% 31.7% 17.0% 22.2% 24.2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 72/73 74/75 76/77 78/79 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17
Endbestand (Mio. t) Verhältnis Endbestand zum Verbrauch, %
Source: World Agri S&D Estimates, June, FAS
31 27 42 44 30 30 25 27 34 35 34
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Production Exports Ending Stocks
China policies build stocks
Source: USDA
Russia emerging as exporter
Brazil exports revised upwards
Source: USDA
– Improve plants’ resistance to increased pest hazards including weeds, insects, disease and too wet, too dry, too cold, too hot
– Zero tolerance policy and asynchronous authorizations bear unbearable legal compliance risks – 1 incident = 50,000 tons corn/soy shipment = circa €25 ml loss
– Increased scrutiny & limitations to hedging
– Low level presence