Cebu Air, Inc. 3 rd Quarter Results of Operations November 14, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Cebu Air, Inc. 3 rd Quarter Results of Operations November 14, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Cebu Air, Inc. 3 rd Quarter Results of Operations November 14, 2019 Disclaimer The information provided in this presentation is provided only for your reference. Such information has not been independently verified and, as such, is not


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Cebu Air, Inc.

3rd Quarter Results of Operations

November 14, 2019

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The information provided in this presentation is provided only for your reference. Such information has not been independently verified and, as such, is not guaranteed to be accurate nor complete. Neither Cebu Air, Inc. (“CEB” or the “Company”) nor any of its affiliates, shareholders, directors, employees, agents or advisers makes expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and neither of them shall accept any responsibility or liability (including any third party liability) for any loss or damage, whether or not arising from any error or omission in compiling such information or as a result of any party’s reliance or use of such information. The information and opinions in this presentation are subject to change without notice. EBITDAR, EBITDA, EBITDAR Margin, EBIT and core net income are not measures of performance under the Philippine Financial Reporting Standards (“PFRS”), and should not be considered in isolation or as alternatives to net income as an indicator of CEB’s operating performance or to cash flow from operating, investing and financing activities as a measure of liquidity, or any other measures of performance under PFRS. Because there are various EBITDAR, EBITDA, EBITDAR Margin, EBIT and core net income calculation methods, CEB’s presentation of these measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies. This presentation also contains certain “forward-looking statements.” These forward-looking statements include words or phrases such as CEB or its management “believes”, “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “plans”, “foresees”, or other words or phrases of similar import. Similarly, statements that describe CEB’s objectives, plans or goals are also forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the relevant forward-looking statement. Such forward looking statements are made based on management’s current expectations or beliefs as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, management. There is no assurance that expected events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the Company and its management’s assumptions are correct.

Disclaimer

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Rev: P18.92B, +16.8% Pax vol: 5.47M, +15.1%

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SLF: 85.1%, +2.7% pts Pax yield: P3,191, +2.8% EBITDAR:P5.27B, +61.1% EBIT: P885M, +241.8%

PTCore Inc: P259M,+123.8% Net Income: (P384M),+25.9%

RPK: 6.1B, +18.2% ASK: 7.3B, +16.7% Jet/bbl: $76.91,-13.4% Php/$: P51.78, -3.3%

3Q2019 Snapshot

  • Fleet: 72 AC

vs 67 3Q18

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Rev: P63.6B, +17.7% Pax Vol: 16.7M, +10.4%

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SLF: 86.5%, +1.8 ppts Pax yield: P3,555, +7.6% EBITDAR: P22.5B, +47% EBIT: P9.82B, +137%

  • EBIT 15.4% margin

PTCore Inc: P7.89B, +171%

  • 12.4% PTC margin

Net Income: P6.7B, +143%

  • 10.6% Net margin

RPK: 18.5B +14.5% ASK: 21.7B +13.5% Jet/bbl: $77.66, -9% Php/$: 52.06, -0.9%

9M2019 Year to Date Update

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Domestic Market

3.9M passengers, up 11.2% YOY 4.5M seats, up 6.1% YOY, for 87% SLF Network:

  • 35 destinations
  • 80 routes
  • >2,100 weekly flights

53% Market share = 1.06 CPI

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 Clark-Iloilo and Clark-Bacolod daily flights launched August

11.9M passengers, up 7.3% YOY 13.5M seats, up 4.8% YOY, for 88% SLF

3rd Qtr: YTD 9M:

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International Market

1.6M passengers, up 25.5% YOY 1.95M seats, up 25.4% YOY, 82% SLF Network:

  • 27 destinations
  • 41 routes
  • 581 weekly flights

 Manila-Shenzhen: 4x/wk flight launched July  Clark-Narita: 4x/wk launched Aug

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3rd Qtr: YTD 9M:

4.8M passengers, up 19.0% YOY 5.8M seats, up 18.0% YOY, 83% SLF

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*source: Published MOPS and BAP rates

Income Statement Highlights

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3Q19 3Q18 % YOY 9M19 9M18 % YOY Total Revenue (Php M) 18,922 16,202 17% 63,625 54,037 18% Passenger 13,246 11,234 18% 46,598 39,537 18% Ancillary 4,196 3,522 19% 12,711 10,402 22% Cargo 1,479 1,445 2% 4,315 4,098 5% Average Yields Average fare/pax 2,423 2,364 3% 2,794 2,617 7% Ancillary/pax 768 741 4% 762 689 11% Cargo yield / kg 27.37 26.15 5% 27.76 26.84 3% ASK (M) 7,278 6,238 17% 21,724 19,144 14% Revenue/ASK (RASK) 2.60 2.60 0.1% 2.93 2.82 4% Cost/ASK (CASK) 2.48 2.70

  • 8%

2.48 2.61

  • 5%

CASK ex-fuel 1.65 1.67

  • 1%

1.63 1.63

  • 0.1%

Jet $/bbl* 76.91 88.77 -13.4% 77.66 85.37

  • 9.0%

P/US$* 51.78 53.56

  • 3.3%

52.06 52.51

  • 0.9%

Income (PHP million) EBITDAR 5,274 3,275 61% 22,503 15,271 47% EBIT 885

  • 624

242% 9,816 4,136 137% Pre-tax Core Income 259

  • 1,088

124% 7,964 2,941 171% Net Income

  • 384
  • 518

26% 6,754 2,781 143% Margins (%) % % ppt % % ppt EBITDAR 27.9 20.2 7.7 35.4 28.3 7.1 EBIT 4.7

  • 3.9

8.6 15.4 7.7 7.7 Pre-tax Core Income 1.4

  • 6.7

8.1 12.5 5.4 7.1 Net Income

  • 2.0
  • 3.2

1.2 10.6 5.2 5.4

+Yields up = YTD 9M Net Inc > double! Strong passenger demand +Effective Cost Mgt

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Balance Sheet Highlights

 + 2 A320NEOs, - 2 A320CEOs  IFRS16: Capitalized lease  Dividends paid July 2019  Conservative Net Debt to Equity of 1.36x  already inclusive of capitalized lease liability

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In Millions of PHP

  • Sept. 30,

2019

  • Dec. 31,

2018 2019 vs end 2018 Cash and cash equiv. 21,578 16,893 4,685 Other current assets 7,985 9,052

  • 1,067

Property & equipment 88,269 95,099

  • 6,830

Right of Use Asset 33,411

  • 33,411

Others 7,338 8,347

  • 1,009

TOTAL ASSETS 158,581 129,391 29,190 Current Debt 6,038 6,615

  • 577

Noncurrent Debt 39,668 47,182

  • 7,514

Current Lease 5,595

  • 5,595

Noncurrent Lease 28,079

  • 28,079

Other liabilities 36,680 35,492 1,188 TOTAL LIABILITIES 116,060 89,289 26,771 EQUITY 42,518 40,102 2,416 Cash to Sales Ratio 30.2% 23.0% Current Ratio 0.72 0.75 Net debt to Equity 1.36 0.92

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Cash Flow Highlights

1.45 M shares bought back since January 2, 2019

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Exits

  • 3 A320s sold
  • 2 A320s

returned Deliveries:

  • 2 A321NEOs
  • 3 A320NEOs
  • 1 ATR 72-600

in Millions of PHP 9M19 CASHFLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES Income after noncash adjustments 21,839 Net changes in working capital 860 Interest and taxes paid – net

  • 2,116

Net cash provided by operating activities 20,583 CASHFLOWS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES Acquisition of PPE

  • 4,591

Proceeds from disposal 4,406 Other noncurrent asset 513 Net cash provided by investing activities 328 CASHFLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES Repayment of debt

  • 7,647

Payment of lease liability

  • 3,993

Dividends paid

  • 4,206

Treasury Stocks

  • 121

Net cash used in financing activities

  • 15,967

Net foreign exchange difference

  • 259

NET INCREASE IN CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS 4,686 CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS, beginning 16,893 CASH AND EQUIVALENTS, END 21,578

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Fuel: with layered hedges to match bookings:  Jet fuel at $76.4/bbl* vs. $77.7/bbl end Sept’19  Ongoing hedge ratios:  37% for balance 2019  27% for 2020  CEB layers these hedges using swaps and collars  with Jet and Brent as underlying Forex: Natural hedges reduce exposure:  USD at Php 50.41* vs. Php 51.83 end Sept’19  Natural cash flow hedges and non-deliverable forwards Rates: Now at a downtrend:  3Mo Libor at 1.891%*, down 31 bps vs. 3Q19  3Mo BVAL at 3.154%*, down 47 bps vs. 3Q19  Php loans at 100% float  USD loans and leases at 37% float *date of ref : Nov 5, 2019; bps = basis points

Macroeconomic and Commercial Outlook Macroeconomic and Commercial Outlook

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3M Forward booking as of Oct 28 :  39% of seats sold for the next 3 mos, ahead of 35% same period LY

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Delivery Number of Aircraft to be Delivered Aircraft Delivery Schedule

Existing Order: A320NEO 2 2H2019 A321NEO 30 2H2019-2023 ATR 600 3 2020-2022 New Order: A330NEO 16 2021-2024 A320NEO 5 2023-2024 A321XLR 10 2024-2026 Total Order 66

Total remaining aircraft

  • rder of 66*, to replace

Airbus A320CEOs , A330 CEOs, and ATR 72-500s Estimated seat growth: 5 year CAGR of 8-9%

Fleet Plan, end Sept 2019

Baseline fleet of 89 aircraft by 2024, but with ability to grow further or moderate

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* 2 out of 66 AC orders were received last October 1 and 10, 2019

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