CASCADES INC.
NBF Quebec Conference – Montreal June 2, 2016
CASCADES INC. NBF Quebec Conference Montreal June 2, 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
CASCADES INC. NBF Quebec Conference Montreal June 2, 2016 DISCLAIMER Certain statements in this presentation, including statements regarding future results and performance, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of securities
NBF Quebec Conference – Montreal June 2, 2016
DISCLAIMER
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Certain statements in this presentation, including statements regarding future results and performance, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of securities legislation based on current expectations. The accuracy of such statements is subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, including, but not limited to, the effect of general economic conditions, decreases in demand for Cascades Inc.’s (“Cascades,” “CAS,” the “Company,” the “Corporation,” “us” or “we”) products, the prices and availability of raw materials, changes in the relative values of certain currencies, fluctuations in selling prices and adverse changes in general market and industry conditions. This presentation may also include price indices as well as variance and sensitivity analyses that are intended to provide the reader with a better understanding of the trends related to our business activities. These items are based
The financial information included in this presentation also contains certain data that are not measures of performance under IFRS (“non-IFRS measures”). For example, the Company uses operating income before depreciation and amortization (“OIBD” which, for purposes of this presentation, we call “EBITDA”) and operating income before depreciation and amortization (excluding specific items) (“OIBD (excluding specific items)” which, for purposes of this presentation, we call “EBITDA (excluding specific items)”) because such measures are used by management to assess the operating and financial performance of the Company’s operating segments. Such information is reconciled to the most directly comparable financial measures, as set forth in the “Supplemental Information on Non-IFRS Measures” section of our most recent quarterly report or annual report. Specific items are defined as items such as charges for or reversal of impairment of assets, for facility or machine closures, accelerated depreciation of assets due to restructuring measures, premiums paid on long-term debt refinancing, loss on refinancing of long-term debt, gains or losses on sales of business units, unrealized gains or losses on derivative financial instruments that do not qualify for hedge accounting, unrealized gains or losses on interest rate swaps, foreign exchange gains
discontinued operations or in the share of results of our associates and joint ventures. All amounts in this presentation are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated.
47% 27% 13% 13% Containerboard Tissue Papers Boxboard Europe Specialty Products 33% 32% 20% 15% Containerboard Tissue Papers Boxboard Europe Specialty Products
Segment Sales Breakdown1
COMPANY OVERVIEW
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headquartered in Kingsey Falls, QC
products composed principally of recycled fibre
segments: Tissue and Containerboard
product offerings
entrepreneurial philosophy
LTM 3/31/16 Net Sales $3,954 million
Segment EBITDA Breakdown1, 2
LTM 3/31/16 EBITDA $447 million
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Leading Packaging and Tissue Paper Manufacturer
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Packaging Products
Containerboard
Tissue Papers
Boxboard Europe Specialty Products
Market Position
leaders
boxboard in Europe
Canada
LTM 3/31/16 Financials
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23% Europe Canada 50% US 27% 23% Europe Canada 37% US 40% 9% Europe Canada 60% US 31% 19% Europe Canada 52% US 29%
Sales from (in %) Sales to (in %) Operating Facilities (in %) PP&E by Geographic Segment (in %)
Note: Figures as of December 31, 2015
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Sales and Operations Across North America and Europe
285 342 340 426 447 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 3/31/16 3,141 3,370 3,561 3,861 3,954 2,750 3,000 3,250 3,500 3,750 4,000 4,250 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 3/31/16
OPERATING PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL SITUATION
Strong Financial Momentum
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Sales EBITDA (excl. specific items)
(M CAN$) (M CAN$)
Improved results reflect improved productivity, FX and stable raw material & energy costs
every CAN$0.01 change in FX
138 133 96 119 138 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 50 75 100 125 150 175 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 3/31/16 37 41 40 58 62 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20 40 60 80 100 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 3/31/16 43 57 72 63 62 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20 40 60 80 100 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 3/31/16 90 150 164 231 234 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 50 100 150 200 250 300 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 3/31/16
OPERATING PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL SITUATION
Historical Segmented EBITDA
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Containerboard Boxboard Europe Specialty Products Tissue Papers
(M CAN$) (M CAN$)
Green line represents segment EBITDA as percent of total Company EBITDA; EBITDA excluding specific items
1 Including $9 million of energy credits(M CAN$) (M CAN$)
2012 – LTM3/31/16 CAGR: 17% 2012 – LTM3/31/16 CAGR: 0% 2012 – LTM3/31/16 CAGR: 34% 2012 – LTM3/31/16 CAGR: 12%
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(0.28) 0.78 0.86 1.58 1.60 (0.50) 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 3/31/16 155 233 277 337 358 100 200 300 400 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 3/31/16
1 Excluding specific items 2 Excluding increase in investments8
Objective: Direct ~$100M of free cash flow annually toward debt reduction
OPERATING PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL SITUATION
Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow per Share
Free Cash Flow per Share1,2 Cash Flow From Operating Activities1
(M CAN$) (CAN$)
OPERATING PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL SITUATION
Debt Maturities
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senior notes refinanced
2022 and 2023
extended to 2019
to 4.93% in 2015 from 6.05% in 2013
savings of ~ $23 million
33 132 282 250 714 325 250 500 750 1,000 1 year > 1 year 2019 2021 2022 2023 Debts without recourse Subsidiaries debts Revolver Senior notes
Debt Repayment as at March 31, 2016
5.8x 5.0x 4.6x 4.7x 4.0x 3.8x 3.6x 3.5x 3.3x 0.0x 1.0x 2.0x 3.0x 4.0x 5.0x 6.0x 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1-16 2016E 2017E 2018E
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1 Based on Street’s EBITDA estimates $437 million for 2016 and $424 million for 2017. Assuming stable EBITDA for 2018 ($424 million), FX US$/CAN$ at 1.30 and only $100 1 million of free cash flows dedicated to debt annually.LEVERAGE TARGET OF 3.0x – 3.5x
Achievable Without Asset Disposals
1 1 1
60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016
North American Containerboard Producers
36.0 40.0 42.0 44.0 38.0
New capacity
0.5
2015e
40.7
New capacity
0.9
2014
39.8 41.8
New capacity
0.7
2016e
41.2
2018e
42.6
New capacity
0.9
2017e
CONTAINERBOARD PACKAGING GROUP
Environment Still Sound
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Fundamentals Sound Despite Added Capacity
Industry Operating Rates and Expected Capacity2
(Million s.t.)
% of total capacity
IP 33%
WestRock 19%
GP 10%
PCA 10%
Kapstone 4%
Cascades 4%
Pratt 4% Others 16% Top-5 Producers 76% 2015 Industry Participants
Source: RISI, Deutsche Bank, Company reports and estimates
1 Including 59.7% of Greenpac’s total capacity 2 New capacity, net of capacity shutdowns2 SP Fiber PCA D3 Yr 2 Pratt Yr 1 Greif Yr 1 IP Valliant Yr 1 Productivity 0.8% Pratt Yr 2 Greif Yr 2 IP Valliant Yr 2 SP Fiber Yr 2
Productivity 0.8%
1
(Operating rate)
Kruger Yr 1
Productivity 0.8% Kruger Yr 2
Productivity 0.8%
(+2.3%) (+1.2%) (+1.5%) (+1.9%)
Cascades EBITDA increases ~$2.5M with every 1% increase in our utilization rate
1,500 st/day of recycled linerboard (26 pounds)
Greenpac XP grades represent 75% of total production in Q1/16
CONTAINERBOARD PACKAGING GROUP
Greenpac Mill
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Note: Greenpac is not consolidated in results, Cascades does not have effective control under IFRS. : daily capacity on XP Grades = 1,425 s.t.
fund and two independent converters
(s.t./day)
Greenpac Production 524 944 1,125 1,260 1,283 1,243 500 1,000 1,500 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2016
At-Home 58% At-Home 51% Away-from- Home 42% Away-from- Home 49%
Canada (25%) US (75%)
At-Home 44% Away-from- Home 39% Parent Rolls 17%
9,230 9,390 9,570 9,818 10,382 160 180 248 564 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 2009 New capacity 2011 New capacity 2013 New capacity 2015 New capacity 2017e
Branded 56% Private Label 44% Branded 11% Private Label 89%
TISSUE PAPERS GROUP
Strong Position Across the North American Tissue Market
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1 Source: RISICAS Sales by Geography (2015) CAS Sales by End Markets (2015) Tissue Market Demand1 North American Tissue Capacity Additions1
80 100 120 140 160 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016E Indexed U.S. Tissue Demand (M s.t.)
(+1.7%) (+1.9%) (+2.6%) (+5.7%)
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2015 NORTH AMERICAN TISSUE MANUFACTURERS Capacity ('000 s.t.) Market Share Capacity Retail Capacity AfH 1 Georgia-Pacific 2,849 29% 67% 33% 2 Procter & Gamble 1,494 15% 100% 0% 3 Kimberly-Clark 1,466 15% 67% 33% 4 SCA Tissue NA 772 8% 0% 100% 5 Cascades Tissue 657 7% 62% 38% 6 Clearwater Paper 435 4% 90% 10% 7 KP Tissue 399 4% 77% 23% 8 First Quality Tissue 290 3% 100% 0% 9 Irving Tissue 282 3% 100% 0% 10 Soundview Paper 161 2% 67% 33% Others 1,012 10% TOTAL 9,818 100%
Source: RISI
TISSUE PAPERS GROUP
Diversified Capacity
SPECIALTY PRODUCTS GROUP
Stable Source of Revenue and Unique Platform for Innovation
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Canada
Canada
December 2015, and restructuring and minority acquisition of Norcan
Recycling and Recovery (~30% of sales1) Consumer Packaging Products (~20% of sales1) Industrial Packaging Products (~45% of sales1)
Other Products (~5% of sales1)
1 Including 100% of joint ventures16
modernization investments have resulted in improved performance
M
Manufacturing – Recycled grades Manufacturing – Virgin grades
M M MM M M M
#2 Producer of Coated Recycled Boxboard in Europe with Capacity of 885,000 M.T. EBITDA & EBITDA Margin
Energy credits totaling €4M in 2013, €6M in 2014
6% 7% 9% 8% 7% 33 40 48 45 43 10 20 30 40 50 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM Q1-2016 (M€)
BOXBOARD EUROPE GROUP
Extensive European Platform
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OUR FOUR STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
MODERNIZE core operations through focused investments Status: Ongoing OPTIMIZE capital allocation and reduce working capital Status: Ongoing RESTRUCTURE underperforming units Status: Well-advanced INNOVATE to improve and develop processes and products Status: Continuous
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STRATEGIC PRIORITY: MODERNIZE ± $300M Invested in Modern Equipment
50 100 150 200 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016B (M$) Containerboard Boxboard Europe Specialty Products Tissue Papers Corporate & IT Capital Expenditures
flow have funded Capex
containerboard – now starting to bear fruit
tissue papers – not yet reflected in results $184M $161M $184M $173M $185M
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STRATEGIC PRIORITY: OPTIMIZE Strategic Initiatives Generating Results
14.8% 14.0% 13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 11.9% 11.3% 11.3% 10% 12% 14% 16% Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2016
% of sales
Working Capital ONE Cascades, delivering results Capturing savings through:
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From 2011 to 2015:
‒ 2,300
‒ $986M
‒ $29M
3%
Papersource investments Data on Asset Sales and Closures1
STRATEGIC PRIORITY: RESTRUCTURE Streamlining the Portfolio
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STRATEGIC PRIORITY: INNOVATE Objective: 20% of Sales from Innovative Products
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FOCUSED ON GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY
Containerboard Packaging Group Tissue Papers Group Specialty Products Group Boxboard Europe Group GROWTH AREAS
footprint
differentiation including ‘lightweighting’
from-Home segment
Western & Southern US
in value-added products (Better, Best)
packaging provides strong growth potential (i.e. food protein packaging)
in growing markets (i.e. Eastern Europe)
leverage to provide flexibility
PRODUCTIVITY INITIATIVES
Canadian asset base
performance of Greenpac Mill
competitiveness: continue to modernize asset base & optimize logistics (trim & freight)
strategic sources of recovered material
and increase integration
to reduce costs and improve quality & margins (such as in energy, automation, capacity creep)
OBJECTIVES
In top 3 in the sector in terms of EBITDA margin EBITDA margin of 13% Grow topline by 10%+
improve margins Maintain/grow solid EBITDA contribution
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NEAR TERM OUTLOOK
products
headwinds in Europe
papers in North America
linerboard and corrugating medium
2016 – Q2 vs Q1
Boxboard Europe EBITDA Impact Containerboard EBITDA Impact Specialty Products EBITDA Impact Tissue Papers EBITDA Impact Volume Stable Slight increase Slight increase Slight increase Average selling prices Slight decrease Slight decrease Stable Slight increase Raw material costs Slight increase Stable Stable Slight increase CAN$ vs
Slight appreciation Slight appreciation Slight appreciation Slight appreciation Energy costs Slight decrease Slight decrease Slight decrease Slight decrease
POTENTIAL BENEFITS STEMMING FROM OUR INITIATIVES
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Other sources of growth and incremental value
Modernizing our operating platform to increase profitability
Potential tailwinds
Taking the right steps to position Cascades for the future
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800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600
May 08 Oct 08 Mar 09 Aug 09 Jan 10 Jun 10 Nov 10 Apr 11 Sep 11 Feb 12 Jul 12 Dec 12 May 13 Oct 13 Mar 14 Aug 14 Jan 15 Jun 15 Nov 15 Apr 16
Tissue Papers - Selected Benchmarks
Virgin parent rolls Recycled parent rolls (US$/s.t.)
250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650
May 06 Nov 06 May 07 Nov 07 May 08 Nov 08 May 09 Nov 09 May 10 Nov 10 May 11 Nov 11 May 12 Nov 12 May 13 Nov 13 May 14 Nov 14 May 15 Nov 15 May 16
Containerboard - Selected Benchmarks
Linerboard 42-lb. unbleached kraft, Eastern U.S. Corrugating medium 26-lb. semichemical, Eastern U.S. (US$/s.t.)
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BUSINESS DRIVERS – PRICE DYNAMICS
Source: RISI
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BUSINESS DRIVERS – SHIPMENTS
CAS Total Shipments (‘000 s.t.) CAS Manufacturing Utilization Rate1,2
1 Excludes Specialty Products segment 2 Defined as: Manufacturing internal and external shipments/practical capacity2,765 2,899 2,924 2,992 2,996 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM Q1 2016 92% 93% 93% 92% 94% 90% 92% 94% 96% 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016
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BUSINESS DRIVERS – COGS
Raw materials Chemicals and production supplies Wages and employee benefits expenses Energy Freight Depreciation and amortization Others
LTM Q1-2016
37% 11% 20% 8% 8% 6% 10%
700 800 900 1,000 1,100
Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 May 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 May 15 Aug 15 Nov 15 Feb 16 May 16
(US$/ton)
Virgin Pulp prices
NBSK NBHK
50 100 150 200
Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 May 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 May 15 Aug 15 Nov 15 Feb 16 May 16
(US$/ton)
Recycled Fibre North American List Prices
White grades (Basket of products) Brown grades (OCC)
OBM Average Quarterly List Prices Q1-2015 Q4-2015 Q1-2016 Q1/Q1 Q1/Q4 White grades - Basket of products 174 151 151
+0% Brown grades - OCC No. 11 (Northeast) 83 88 85 +2%
Virgin Pulp Prices NBSK (Canadian sources delivered to Eastern US) 995 945 943
NBHK (Canada/US sources delivered to Eastern US) 843 880 873 +4%
RAW MATERIALS – FIBRE COSTS
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Current (May) 90 153 980 840 Current (May)
1
Source: RISI
1 Basket of white recycled paper, including grades such as SOP, Hard White Envelope and Coated Book Stock1 2 3 4 5 6
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RAW MATERIALS – SOURCING STRATEGY
Strategy
to increase tons under control
circumstances
retailers
World Top Recovered Paper Suppliers
Cascades’ NA Recycled Fibre Supply
20151
Most of the fibre supply coming from internal sources, contracts and regular streams
1 Including volume processed for GreenpacRecovery & Internal 25% Spot 25% Contractual Agreements 23% Regular & Steady Volume (Noncontractual) 27%
Source: RISI
(M Tonnes)
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PROPORTIONATE CONSOLIDATION
Selected Financial Data Q1-2016 As Reported (IFRS) Proportionate Consolidation1 Sales (M$) 1,003 994 Adjusted EBITDA (M$) 106 116 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 10.6% 11.7% Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA Ratio2 3.8x 3.7x
1 Selected financial data adjusted to proportionally reflect the impact of certain associates and joint ventures namely Greenpac at 59.7%, Sonoco JVs at 50%, Reno de Medici at 57.6% and 1 Recovery at 73% until November 30, 2015. Not adjusted for Boralex. 2 Ratio as reported based on LTM EBITDA excluding specific items; ratio under proportionate consolidation based on run rate Adjusted EBITDA of $484M for Q1-2016, $463M for Q4-2015 and 2 $380M for Q1-2015 (3- month period annualized).32
Greenpac Illustrative EBITDA (US$M) Impact on Cascades’ EPS (CAN$) Illustrative Value per Share 1 (CAN$) 60 $0.08 $1.70 80 $0.17 $2.80 100 $0.27 $3.90 EBITDA Sensitivity ±10 ±$0.55
Cascades story
1 For illustrative purposes only. Using conservative Total Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiple of 7x. Reflecting expected receipt of tax credit.Does not reflect the views of the Corporation on valuation. Assuming a foreign exchange rate of $1.25 Canadian dollar per US dollar.
CONTAINERBOARD PACKAGING GROUP
Greenpac Impact on EPS
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C M C CM M C M C M M M C M C C C CM C CM CM C
Wagram was a significant step to bring us closer to growth regions Now taking steps to integrate volume from
Retail Away-from-Home Manufacturing Converting
M C
TISSUE PAPERS GROUP
Optimize Logistics and Increase Integration
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GEOGRAPHICALLY DIVERSIFIED
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For more information:
www.cascades.com/investors Jennifer Aitken, MBA Director, Investor Relations 514-282-2697 or investor@cascades.com