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Carbon Product Innovation October 5, 2017 - C O N F I D E N T I A L - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Carbon Product Innovation October 5, 2017 - C O N F I D E N T I A L - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Carbon Product Innovation October 5, 2017 - C O N F I D E N T I A L - INTRODUCTION Slowing the rate of new CO 2 emissions is no longer sufficient to combat climate change; the state of climate change demands a further reduction in atmospheric CO
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Slowing the rate of new CO2 emissions is no longer sufficient to combat climate change; the state of climate change demands a further reduction in atmospheric CO2 levels using market-based solutions
INTRODUCTION
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250 300 350 400
- 100
- 200
- 300
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- 500
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Atmospheric CO2 Levels
ATMOSPHERIC CARBON IS STILL INCREASING
Despite the continued focus on reducing incremental emissions, the collective “industrial legacy” of carbon continues to be ignored
CO2 PPM (Parts Per Million) Thousands of Years Before Today Today: 404 PPM “Pre-Industrial” Level
Industrial Legacy
“INDUSTRIAL LEGACY” CO2
+ 1 PPM / Year 104 PPM
∼ 800 GT ∼ 7 GT / Year
NET IMBALANCE CO2
Release +468 GT / Year Human impact, microbial respiration, plant respiration Intake
- 461 GT / Year
Plants / biomass , Oceans, Soil / land
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+0°C +1°C +2°C +3°C +4°C +5°C +6°C
Global GDP Food Water Coast Ecosystems Extreme Weather Events
Without significant CO2 reduction, severe negative impacts from rising average temperatures and increasing climate volatility are guaranteed
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Small glaciers disappear 1.0-3.2B people impacted with increased water stress Extensive damage to coral reefs 20-30% species face extinction Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heatwaves Increased damage from storms $50-100B US property under water Global extinctions
- 30% coastal wetlands
- $20T
- $44T
- $72T
Temp Δ relative to pre-industrial levels
CREATING SEVERE LONG-TERM IMPACTS
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OPTIONS TO COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE
Electricity
(30%)
Industry
(21%)
Transportation
(26%)
Renewable Energy Electric Vehicles Energy Efficiency, CCS Technology Land Management Geo- Engineering
“Adapt” Reduce Emissions Remove CO2 from Atmosphere
Necessary Carbon-to- Value Severe Marginal, Long Long Unpredictable
Carbon-to-Value technology is the only economically viable option within the necessary timeframe at the required scale
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SOLUTION: CONVERT CO2 INTO PRODUCTS
CO2 Direct from the Air CO2 Into “Carbon Negative” Materials CO2 Price Competitive Products CAPTURE CONVERT COMMERCIALIZE
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HOW IT WORKS
DIRECT AIR CAPTURE NATURAL GAS RENEWABLE ENERGY
CARBON FIBER CONCRETE INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS TIRES STEEL FUELS
CO2 + (H2 or CH4) + e-
ELECTROLYSIS OR
ELECTRONICS
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CARBON FEEDS LARGE GLOBAL MARKETS
CO₂
Materials
$650B
Steel Concrete Fillers Coatings
Chemicals
$500B
Plastics Industrial Chemicals Fertilizers Carbonates
Fuels
$2,000B
Diesel Ethanol Methanol
Carbon is an important feedstock into materials ($650B), chemicals ($500B) and fuels ($2T), representing 18.8 GT / year sequestration potential
Carbon Uses Sequestration Potential
Very Long Short
Sequestration Duration
- 18.8 GT / Year
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Solid Carbon Materials End Markets Carbon Market Size1 Direct CO2 Impact2
Tire Filler $19.0 B .07 GT Other Fillers & Reinforcements $6.0 B .02 GT Coatings, Inks $2.0 B .01 GT Metal Replacement $250.0 B 7.7 GT Concrete Replacement $243.0 B 11.0 GT Carbon Fiber $2.6 B .003 GT Resin Reinforcement $16.0 B .05 GT Electronics, Energy Storage >$80.0 B .006 GT Biotech, Optics, Fabric, Other <.01 GT
$600-700 B 18.8 GT Carbon Black Nanotubes, fibers, graphene, structured materials
- 1. Based on incumbent/end product market price, weight and loading ratio of carbon in product
- 2. Direct sequestration in end product based on carbon loading plus effect of avoidance of incumbent product manufacturing
EXAMPLE: SOLID CARBON MATERIALS
For example, solid carbon materials markets are global, massive and leveraged to urbanization trends
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Unsubsidized Cost of Energy Comparison (US)
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
$/MWh GAS COAL SOLAR
“CARBON NEGATIVE” INFLECTION POINT
Carbon Neutral Carbon Negative
Renewable electricity sources <$40/MWh (solar is <$30/MWh in many US markets) enables materials to be both “carbon negative” and price competitive
Source: EIA, BNEF, Lazard Estimates
UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR
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Type Stage Technology & Development Management Team, Capital Need
Capture Seed / Growth
- CO₂ from ambient air
- Demonstration unit operating
- Strong mgmt. team, Bill Gates is lead backer
- Needs $20M anchor for $75M project round
Capture Seed / Growth
- CO₂ from ambient air, flue gas
- Lower cost than CEI at scale
- Mgmt. team lacks commercial & dev’t capability
- $20M invested, Edgar Bronfman is lead backer
Capture Seed / Growth
- CO₂ from ambient air, distributed application
- Finalists in Virgin Earth Challenge
- Based in Zurich
- Funded by Swiss Institute of Technology
Conversion Growth / Project
- Low cost net-negative CO2 technology
- Converts CO2 to carbon black, graphene,
nanotubes
- Strong technical team, lacks mgmt. and
commercial/financial capability
- Exxon considering licensing partnership
Application Growth / Project
- Cellular graphene, diversified applications
- incl. ultra-high strength composites
- Pilot manufacturing plant operating
- Strong technical and management team
- Needs $10M in growth capital to scale
manufacturing, develop stage II applications Application Seed / Growth
- Solid Carbon to Batteries
- 5x performance of Tesla battery
- Strong technical team, weak mgmt. team
- Needs $3M to complete commercial prototype of
10 kWh battery, $5M to scale Application Growth / Project
- Solid carbon to diversified applications
(electronics, carbon black, wearables)
- Strong technical and management team
- Needs $15M in growth capital to scale platform
TECHNOLOGY IS VIABLE
Several carbon-to-value technologies are available and ready to scale
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THE OPPORTUNITY TO BE FIRST
Emissions Source Zero Carbon Products Technology Investment ‘00–17 Power Plants Hydro, Solar / Wind + Batteries $35B+ Transportation Electric Vehicles $12B+ “Industry” Materials, Chemicals, Fuels <$100M
To date, less than $100M has been invested in the emerging carbon-to-value sector
Source: CB Insights
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INDUSTRY “INTEGRATOR” IS NEEDED
Siloed carbon-to-value technology development must be transformed into a cohesive, well-capitalized commercial industry
ACTIVITIES PEOPLE
Project Development Private equity investors
(Energy/renewables)
Technology Integration Engineers & business development executives Regulatory Evaluation Policy experts Application Analysis Industry analysts Technology Investment Venture capital investors
(Early-stage)
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PRIOR EXPERIENCE: SOLAR RESERVE
Summary Vertical: Renewable Power Technology: Concentrated solar thermal with molten salt storage Stage: Development Locations: Worldwide Scale: 100 – 400 MW (reference plant) Date of Investment: January 2008 Capital Committed/ Invested: $53 million / $53 million Ownership %: 36% (fully diluted)
Problem / Opportunity
► Large US-based industrial took control of CSP technology via acquisition of rocket
engine business
► $100M of R&D from DoE, major US utility and several other federal agencies ► In order to move technology into commercial phase, a commercial scale facility needed
to be developed, financed and constructed
► Senior management of industrial (1) was unwilling to take necessary balance sheet risk
(project guarantees), (2) lacked the in-house project development skills (site development and contracting) and (3) did not understand project finance
► As a result, the technology languished inside the subsidiary for 8 years
McDermott / Green Role
► Negotiated worldwide, exclusive license for 20 years (plus 10 year extension) to use and
sell molten salt storage equipment manufactured by UTC
► Spun-out engineering team and other team members ► Located and hired additional senior management to lead development and financing of
first project
► Raised additional $140M of corporate and project equity
Investment Status / Results
► Negotiated worldwide, exclusive license for 20 years (plus 10 years) ► Formed Solar Reserve, LLC to transfer technology outside of UTC ► Funded first $8M ► 110MW Crescent Dunes ($1.2 billion cost) operational ► SolarReserve is world’s largest CSP company with storage ► Development and operating assets in US, South Africa, Chile, China and AU
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PRIOR EXPERIENCE: FULCRUM BIOENERGY
Summary Vertical: Low Carbon Fuels Technology: Advanced MSW Processing, Gasification, Fischer- Tropsch Stage: Development Locations: U.S. Focus Scale: 10-60 MGPY Date of Investment: July 2007 Capital Committed/ Invested: $90 million / $90 million Ownership %: 51.5% (fully diluted)
McDermott / Green Role
► Founded company, created business model, hired management team, provided initial
capitalization
► Negotiated first feedstock contract, technology licenses ► Provided strategic guidance and supported growth of the business as Chairman of the
Board
► Raised over $250MM corporate and project equity ► Supported $180M in successful Federal loan and grant awards
Investment Status / Results
► Formed Fulcrum to be a leading developer and operator of waste-to-fuels projects
globally
► Funded seed and growth capital 2007 – 2011 ► Fulcrum is the lowest cost producer of low carbon fuels from waste feedstocks
Problem / Opportunity
► More than 300MM tons of MSW are generated in the U.S. each year – convertible to
nearly 10 billion gallons of drop-in fuel annually
► Large development program based on long-term access to large volumes of zero-cost
waste
► Integrated demonstration of MSW-to-fuel technology ► Produce a drop-in fuel (syncrude, diesel & jet fuel) for less than $1.00 per gallon ► Secured significant private equity investments from large strategic investors (United
Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Waste Management, Barrick Goldstrike)
► Beginning gasification EPC work on first project in Q2 2017; operational in 2018
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TEAM
Jim McDermott, Ex. Chairman
Rusheen Capital Management, US Renewables Group, Fulcrum Bioenergy, SolarReserve, Common Assets, NanoH2O, Spoke.com, Archive and Stamps.com
Jeff Green, CEO
Rusheen Capital Management, Moleaer, NanoH2O, Archive and Stamps.com
Will Kain, CFO
Rusheen Capital Management, WindESCo, NanoH2O, Altra Biofuels and UBS
Mike McMahon, Senior Analyst
Rusheen Capital Management, Roth Capital Partners and Bloomberg, LP
Chief Technical Officer Director, Technical Diligence VP , Business Development & Government Relations Join at Close:
EXAMPLE
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C4 SCP
(Development Company)
C4 SCP: DAC-TO-SOLID CARBON
PILOT REACTOR: 600 TPY DEMO PLANT: 30,000 TPY COMMERCIAL PLANT 1: 100,000 TPY COMMERCIAL PLANT 2: 100,000 TPY COMMERCIAL PLANT 10: 100,000 TPY
► Capital ► Management ► Project Development ► Technology ► Know-how ► Team ► Technology ► Know-how
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C4 SCP: MARKETS
AEROSPACE INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS AUTOMOTIVE DEFENSE
“Carbon Negative” Solid Carbon Materials Target Industries
C4 SCP to manufacture “carbon negative” solid carbon materials for the automotive, aerospace, chemical, plastics, electronics, and construction industries
ELECTRONICS CONSTRUCTION CARBON BLACK (CB) CARBON NANOTUBES / CARBON NANOFIBER (CNT / CNF)
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Carbon Black Market Price Range1
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000
$ / Ton Carbon Carbon Black Price ($/Ton)
First Commercial Plant
C4 SCP: PRODUCTS
Key Assumptions Utility Scale Solar Price
- $40.0 / MWh
- $40.0 / MWh
- $40.0 / MWh
Natural Gas Price (CH4)
- $3.00 / MMBTU
- $3.00 / MMBTU
- $3.00 / MMBTU
CO2 Capture Cost (Atmospheric)
- $299 / ton
- $140 / ton
- $140 / ton
Annual Volume (Carbon)
- 30,000 tons
- 100,000 tons
- 100,000 tons
Demo Plant
- 1. Range reflects price points for rubber and specialty carbon blacks
At current solar and carbon black pricing, projections for CO2-to-carbon black show the potential to be price competitive
First Commercial Plant with Carbon Price @ $100 / Ton CO2 $1,191 $741 $546
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