carbon, diesels and outlook Ricardo F Martinez-Botas Mechanical - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Vehicle emissions of light duty vehicles: carbon, diesels and outlook

Ricardo F Martinez-Botas Mechanical Engineering Imperial College London

Contents

2

Progression in vehicle emissions Vehicle emissions test programme

VW results NEDC in Dyno RDE & Conformity Factors NEDC in Track

Emissions gap

NOx CO2

Energy performance of other future vehicles

Progression in Vehicle Emissions

3

Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs

UK National emissions of air pollutants

Emission standards

g/km number

NOx reductions

 Euro standards were introduced in 1992 to reduce pollutants from vehicles  Successful mechanism for improving air quality.  The official Euro 6 NOx limit is over 90% lower than the first Euro standard introduced in 1992.  Real-world test data Emissions Testing Programme indicated NOx emissions from the latest Euro 6 diesel cars had been reduced by 44% relative to Euro 5 cars.  Meeting NO2 limits close to busy roads continues to be a challenge.  In some areas transport is responsible for 80% of roadside NOx on average  Evidence of further improvements?

UK Department for Transport Defeat Device Investigation 7

Vehicle Emissions Test Programme October 2015 – April 2016

UK Department for Transport Defeat Device Investigation 8

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vehicle-emissions-testing-programme-conclusions

UK Department for Transport Defeat Device Investigation 9

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vehicle-emissions-testing-programme-conclusions

Objectives

10

 Revelations in September 2015 that VW Group used software to distort emissions tests  Secretary of State informed Parliament of UK’s Vehicle Emissions Test Programme on 10 November 2015, to: Establish whether the use of strategies to defeat emissions tests goes wider than the VW Group Gather much-needed evidence to restore public confidence and improve our understanding of the real world emissions performance of vehicles

November 16

Official - Sensitive

How vehicles selected

11  Produced list of 100 top selling diesels (based on study of buying preferences 2010-2015)  Aimed to capture 75% of sales of top 70 vehicles, representing >50% of all diesels

• n UK roads

 All major manufacturers  Engine sharing effectively increases the size of our sample  Even split of Euro 5 and Euro 6  Snapshot in time of a single example of each model’s NOx performance November 16

Official - Sensitive

Methodology – set up

12 Vehicles  Sourced from car hire fleets  Unmodified and no defects  <30,000 miles  Typical winter grade diesel Tests  Lab: Full lab-grade analysers (plus PEMS to confirm calibration)  Track and road: Portable Emissions Measurement Systems (PEMS) November 16

Official - Sensitive

Vehicles  Sourced from car hire fleets  Unmodified and no defects  <30,000 miles  Typical winter grade diesel

Methodology – tests

13 Laboratory

• 1. Official NEDC test with cold engine at 20-30°C ambient
• 2. Official NEDC test with fully warmed up engine (repeated)
• 3. Reversed NEDC test with fully warmed up engine

November 16

Official - Sensitive

Comparison of NOx emissions on NEDC tests showing impact of VW Group cycle recognition software

14 November 16

Official - Sensitive

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 50 100 150 200 250 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Speed (km/h) Emissions (mg/s) Time (s) L-NEDC (Hot) L-NEDC Reverse Speed

Comparison of NOx emissions on NEDC tests showing vehicle which does not appear to vary emissions behaviour

15 November 16

Official - Sensitive

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 50 100 150 200 250 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Speed (km/h) Emissions (mg/s) Time (s) L-NEDC (Hot) L-NEDC Reverse Speed

'Cold' versus 'hot' NEDC NOx emissions - lab results

16 November 16

Official - Sensitive

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Euro 5 Euro 6 NOx emissions (mg/km) Average Laboratory NEDC Cold Average Laboratory NEDC Hot

Euro 5 limit = 180 Euro 6 limit = 80

Methodology – tests

17 Laboratory

• 1. Official NEDC test with cold engine at 20-30°C ambient
• 2. Official NEDC test with fully warmed up engine (repeated)
• 3. Reversed NEDC test with fully warmed up engine

On road Approximation of RDE test (pending confirmation of final requirements) – 1.5 hours

• n public roads including urban, rural and motorway

November 16

Official - Sensitive

RDE Testing

 Undertaken in public roads near VCA.  1.5 hours of continuous driving.  PEMS installed.  Route included the prescribed: Urban Rural Motorway

Real driving NOx emissions - Euro 5 vehicles

19 November 16

Official - Sensitive

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Citroen C4 Ford Mondeo Honda CRV Hyundai i30 Hyundai iX35 Hyundai Santa Fe Kia Sportage Land Rover Freelander Mercedes E250 Nissan Qashqai 1.5 Nissan Qashqai 1.6 Peugeot 208 Range Rover Sport Range Rover Sport Skoda Octavia Vauxhall Astra Vauxhall Corsa Vauxhall Insignia Volvo V40 NOx Emissions (mg/km)

Real driving NOx emissions - Euro 6 vehicles

20 November 16

Official - Sensitive

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Audi A3 BMW 320d BMW X5 Ford Focus Ford Mondeo Honda CRV Hyundai i30 Jaguar XE Kia Sportage Mazda 6 Mercedes A180 Mini Countryman Peugeot 3008 Renault Megane Skoda Octavia Toyota Avensis Vauxhall Insignia Vauxhall Mokka VW Golf NOx Emissions (mg/km)

Real driving NOx emissions - Euro 5 & 6 vehicles

21 November 16

Official - Sensitive

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Citroen C4 Ford Mondeo Honda CRV Hyundai i30 Hyundai iX35 Hyundai Santa Fe Kia Sportage Land Rover… Mercedes E250 Nissan Qashqai 1.5 Nissan Qashqai 1.6 Peugeot 208 Range Rover Sport Range Rover Sport Skoda Octavia Vauxhall Astra Vauxhall Corsa Vauxhall Insignia Volvo V40 NOx Emissions (mg/km) 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Audi A3 BMW 320d BMW X5 Ford Focus Ford Mondeo Honda CRV Hyundai i30 Jaguar XE Kia Sportage Mazda 6 Mercedes… Mini… Peugeot 3008 Renault… Skoda… Toyota… Vauxhall… Vauxhall… VW Golf NOx Emissions (mg/km)

Temperature warning

 Tests on the road where performed in the winter months  Variability of results  Just what was intended as it was trying to capture a real behaviour

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Hyundai Citroen Ford Honda Hyundai Hyundai Kia Land Rover Mercedes Nissan Nissan Peugeot Range Rover Sport Range Rover Sport Skoda Vauxhall Vauxhall Vauxhall Volvo Audi BMW BMW Ford Ford Honda Hyundai Jaguar Kia Mazda Mercedes Mini Peugeot Renault Skoda Toyota Vauxhall Vauxhall VW

RDE ambient temperature

Degrees C

Conformity Factors

 Conformity Factor: CF=RDENOx/80  Based on the RDE results for EURO 6.  If set at 1.5 none of vehicles would meet the requirement.  Only three vehicles achieved less than a conformity factor less than 2.1(Audi A3, Mini Countryman & VW Golf)  The dialogue with manufacturers indicated that the standard would be met.  Average CF=6.2

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0

Audi BMW BMW Ford Ford Honda Hyundai Jaguar Kia Mazda Mercedes Mini Peugeot Renault Skoda Toyota Vauxhall Vauxhall VW

Conformity Factors for EURO6

Methodology – tests

24 Laboratory

• 1. Official NEDC test with cold engine at 20-30°C ambient
• 2. Official NEDC test with fully warmed up engine (repeated)
• 3. Reversed NEDC test with fully warmed up engine

On road Approximation of RDE test (pending confirmation of final requirements) – 1.5 hours

• n public roads including urban, rural and motorway

Track Replicate official NEDC test plus laboratory variations (as above) plus a further NEDC test with fully warmed up engine but driving speed increased by 10% November 16

Official - Sensitive

The NEDC cycle

 NEDC  TRACK AT MIRA

Comparison of 'hot' NEDC in lab and on the track

26

Official - Sensitive

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 Euro 5 Euro 6 NOx emissions (mg/km) Average Laboratory NEDC Hot Average Track NEDC Hot

Euro 5 limit = 180 Euro 6 limit = 80

Temperature warning

 Tests on the road where performed in the winter months  Variability of results  Just what was intended as it was trying to capture a real behaviour

Temperature C

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Hyundai Citroen Ford Honda Hyundai Hyundai Kia Land Rover Mercedes Nissan Nissan Peugeot Range Rover Sport Range Rover Sport Skoda Vauxhall Vauxhall Vauxhall Volvo Audi BMW BMW Ford Ford Honda Hyundai Jaguar Kia Mazda Mercedes Mini Peugeot Renault Skoda Toyota Vauxhall Vauxhall VW

Track Temperature

Track test results

28

Official - Sensitive

Dyno vs Track: why such a big difference?

 What affects the difference between the two “seemingly identical” test? Aerodynamics: settings of the dyno, commonly know as the coast down values. Flexibility: choosing the most favourable vehicle configuration. Test temperature: particularly in relation to EGR regulation regime. Weight: difference between vehicles. Cornering and track effects. Emission equipment discrepancies

What relative Importance* *for illustration only

Observations

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 Observable cycle recognition strategy on Skoda  No evidence other manufacturers have acted in the same way as VW Group  Very large difference between laboratory and track/road results  Emission controls are often significantly temperature dependent – but manufacturers say this change with ambient temperature is necessary “to protect the engine from damage”.  Temperature dependent strategies via the control of EGR are a legal exemption from the defeat device prohibition.  Incoming WLTP and RDE testing will contribute to reduce the gap but monitoring is of the essence.

Official - Sensitive

What is the magnitude of the emissions gap?

 Discussed it in terms of the divergence between the regulated type approval and the performance.  From the Emissions Testing Programme  From the carbon perspective

Divergence between Road and Regulated

𝐸𝑗𝑤𝑓𝑠𝑕𝑓𝑜𝑑𝑓 = 𝑂𝑃𝑦 𝑆𝑝𝑏𝑒 𝑂𝑃𝑦 𝑆𝑓𝑕𝑣𝑚𝑏𝑢𝑓𝑒

*Some vehicles had more than one entry in the data set, see the Emissions Testing Vehicle Programme

Divergence Divergence

Average* Average*

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0

Euro 6

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0

Euro 5

• Divergence between the regulated type

approval and the performance.

Divergence between Road and NEDC Dyno results

1 6 11 16 21 26

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Euro 5

𝐸𝑗𝑤𝑓𝑠𝑕𝑓𝑜𝑑𝑓 = 𝑂𝑃𝑦 𝑆𝑝𝑏𝑒 𝑂𝑃𝑦 𝐸𝑧𝑜𝑝 𝐸𝑧𝑜𝑝 𝑂𝐹𝐸𝐷 𝑂𝑃𝑦 (𝑕/𝑙𝑛) Euro 6

Type approval Average

MAZDA

𝐸𝑗𝑤𝑓𝑠𝑕𝑓𝑜𝑑𝑓 = 𝑂𝑃𝑦 𝑆𝑝𝑏𝑒 𝑂𝑃𝑦 𝐸𝑧𝑜𝑝

• Divergence between the Dyno testing

performance and the road

Emissions gap: CO2 How far has the divergence grown?

(c) 2014 International Council on Clean Transportation

Emissions gap: CO2 How far has the divergence grown?

(c) 2014 International Council on Clean Transportation

(c) 2014 International Council on Clean Transportation

(c) 2014 International Council on Clean Transportation

2013 2001

2013 2001

2013 20??

2013 20??

Outlook

Energy and CO2 footprint of different vehicles a real world analysis

Energy per Km in real conditions

Future Car Challenge: Brighton to London

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70

kWh/km

EV E-REV/PHEV HEV ICE

Average: 0.24 kWh/km

How is this energy requirement delivered? Downsize and boost KERS Improved combustion Turbine Mechanical Thermo Electrics

Well to wheel CO2

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 gCO2e/km

Average: 99 gCO2e/km (well-to-wheel)

Future Car Challenge: Brighton to London

EV E-REV/PHEV HEV ICE

Adaptation: Would it be possible to consider a platform that adapts? Would it be possible to overcome the limits of calibration? Would it be possible to target vehicle development where it may be best?

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one most adaptable to change.

Passenger car tailpipe CO2 trajectories

Diesel ICE minimum Hybrid vehicle minimum

Thank you

49

Official - Sensitive