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Earnings Presentation May 6, 2011 1 May 6, 2011May 6, 2011 Safe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
First Quarter 2011 Earnings Presentation May 6, 2011 1 May 6, 2011May 6, 2011 Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM
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Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
Non-GAAP Financial Measures For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share, ongoing EBITDA, and cash earnings), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company's website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm
Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources’, PNM’s, or TNMP’s (collectively, the “Company”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies, are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates and PNM Resources, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, PNM Resources, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNM Resources’, PNM’s, and TNMP’s business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed
negotiate new credit facilities for those expiring in 2012, including disruptions in the credit markets and actions by ratings agencies affecting the Company’s credit ratings; the potential unavailability of cash from PNM Resources’ subsidiaries or Optim Energy due to regulatory, statutory, or contractual restrictions; the impacts of decreases in the values of marketable equity securities on the trust funds maintained to provide nuclear decommissioning funding and pension and other postretirement benefits, including the levels of funding and expense; the recession and its impacts on the electricity usage of the Company’s customers; state and federal regulatory, legislative, and judicial decisions and actions, including the outcomes of PNM’s pending electric rate case and transmission rate case, and appeals of prior regulatory proceedings; the ability of PNM to successfully defend its utilization of a future test year in its current electric rate filing with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (“NMPRC”), including PNM’s ability to withstand challenges by regulators and intervenors, in the event the pending stipulation in that case is not approved; the ability of PNM to successfully forecast and manage its operating and capital expenditures, particularly in the context of a future test year rate case; the ability of PNM and TNMP to recover their costs and earn their allowed returns in their regulated jurisdictions; the ability of PNM to meet the renewable energy requirements established by the NMPRC, including the resource diversity requirement, within the specified cost parameters; the risk that replacement power costs incurred by PNM related to not meeting the specified capacity factor for its generating units under its emergency fuel and purchased power adjustment clause will not be approved by the NMPRC; the risk that PNM may not be able to recover the increased costs of rights-of-way renewals on Native American lands through rates charged to customers; the ongoing risks relating to PNM Resources’ ownership interest in Optim Energy, including uncertainties surrounding PNM Resources’ assessment of strategic alternatives for its investment in Optim Energy, the risk that a strategic transaction involving Optim Energy may not be consummated, uncertainty regarding potential additional contributions to Optim Energy, and the possibility that PNM Resources might recognize additional gains or impairments depending on market conditions, the form and structure of a strategic transaction, and relative fair values; the risk that Optim Energy requires additional financial sources to expand its generation capacity, or
Energy; state and federal regulation or legislation relating to climate change, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, coal combustion byproducts, nitrogen oxide, and other power plant emissions, including the risk that the Company and Optim Energy may have to commit to substantial capital investments and additional operating costs to comply with new environmental requirements, including possible future requirements to address regional haze regulations and related Best Available Retrofit Technology requirements and concerns about global climate change, and the resultant impacts on the operations and economic viability of generating plants in which PNM and Optim Energy have interests; the performance of generating units, including the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, the San Juan Generating Station, the Four Corners Power Plant, and Optim Energy generating units, transmission systems, and distribution systems, which could be negatively affected by major equipment failures, major weather disruptions, disruptions in fuel supply, and other significant operational issues; the risks associated with completion of generation, transmission, distribution, and other projects, including construction delays and unanticipated cost overruns; uncertainty regarding the requirements and related costs
costs from customers; uncertainty surrounding the status of PNM’s participation in jointly-owned generation projects resulting from the scheduled expiration of the operational documents for the projects beginning in 2016 and potential changes in the objectives of the participants in the projects; the risk that recently enacted reliability standards regarding available transmission capacity may reduce certain PNM transmission rights used to transmit its generation resources and provide access to transmission customers resulting in a need to purchase additional transmission capacity, reduce sales of transmission capacity, or operate generation less economically; changes in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (“ERCOT”) protocols; changes in the cost of power acquired by First Choice Power and changes in the retail price of power in ERCOT; the ability of First Choice Power to attract and retain customers; collections experience; fluctuations in interest rates; weather; water supply; changes in fuel costs; availability of fuel supplies; the effectiveness of risk management and commodity risk transactions; seasonality and other changes in supply and demand in the market for electric power; the impact of mandatory energy efficiency measures on customer energy usage; variability of wholesale power prices and natural gas prices; volatility and liquidity in the wholesale power markets and the natural gas markets; uncertainty regarding the ongoing validity of government programs for emission allowances; changes in the competitive environment in the electric industry; the outcome of legal proceedings; the extent of insurance coverage available for claims made in litigation; changes in applicable accounting principles; and the performance of state, regional, and national economies.
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PNM TNMP Residential 2.1% 2.1% C&I (including other) 2.3% 1.8% Total Retail 2.2% 2.0% Customer Growth 0.5% 0.9% Q1 2011 vs Q1 2010
TX
NM U.S.
(weather-normalized KWh)
TX U.S.
(2) (3)
(1)
8.1% 8.1% 8.8% NM TX US
(1) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2011 (2) Excluding Economy Service customers (3) Excluding Transmission Service customers
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Estimated Compliance Costs (PNM Share) Comments San Juan Generating Station Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (FIP) ~$345M - $460M EPA ruling by Aug. 5 Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (SIP) ~$36M Mercury Rules None to minimal Plant already at 91% Clean Water Act - 316(b) None to minimal Low water usage Four Corners (Units 4 and 5) Clean Air Act – Regional Haze ~$69M Mercury Rules (MACT) Slight exposure APS evaluating options Clean Water Act – 316(b) None to minimal Low water usage Palo Verde Clean Water Act – 316(b) None to minimal Closed system Estimated Compliance Costs (Optim 100%) Comments Optim Energy Mercury Rules (Twin Oaks) Minimal Clean Water Act – 316(b) (Cedar Bayou 4) Slight exposure Evaluating options Transport Rules (Twin Oaks) Minimal May need limestone feed upgrade for SO2 removal
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TNMP First Choice Power Optim Energy PNM Electric
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Q1 Key Performance Drivers r EPS Lower outage costs $0.04 Rate relief $0.02 Load growth $0.02 PV3 toll expiration ($0.06) Other ($0.03) Q1 Key Performance Drivers r EPS Rate relief $0.03 Load growth $0.01 Other ($0.01)
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(In millions)
(In millions)
(1) PNM Resources has 50% ownership interest in Optim Energy; gains and
losses of Optim Energy are equally shared by the owners.
Q1 Key Performance Drivers r EBITDA Lower gross margins ($2.8) February cold snap ($3.0) Lower bad debt expense $1.3 Other $0.1
Q1 Key Performance Drivers r EBITDA Twin Oaks contract expiration ($13.7) February cold snap $5.4 Emission allowance sales $3.9 Lower O&M $1.0 Other $0.5
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PNM $0.62 - $0.67 TNMP $0.27 - $0.29
First Choice Power $0.28 - $0.35 Optim Energy(2) ($0.22) – ($0.19)
(1) Business segment guidance ranges are not additive (2) PNMR Share 50%
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power plant availability
Power by achieving customer growth and increasing retention
position generation assets to capitalize as market conditions improve
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* Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Council
2011 & 2012 Outage Schedule 57.1% 55.1% 93.6% 83.2% 90.7% 97.0%
San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde
Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Annual Top Quartile Numbers* Coal 90% Nuclear 92%
Unit Duration (days) Time Period 1 50 Q1 - Q2 2011 4 13 Q2 2011 2 47 Q1 2012 3 47 Q1 - Q2 2012 5 24 Q2 2011 4 13 Q4 2011 5 13 Q4 2012 2 44 Q2 2011 1 45 Q4 2011 3 44 Q1 - Q2 2012 2 44 Q3 - Q4 2012 San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde
(Coal) (Nuclear) (Coal)
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85.4% 93.7% 98.0% 88.7% 99.0% 74.1%
Twin Oaks Altura Cogen Cedar Bayou 4
Q1 2010 Q1 2011
Annual Top Quartile Numbers* Lignite 90% Combined Cycle 92%
* Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Council
(Lignite) (Combined-Cycle) (Combined-Cycle)
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Quarter Ended Quarter Ended March 31, 2011 March 31, 2010 Optim Energy GAAP Net Earnings (Loss) (100%) (18.2) $ (8.0) $ Interest expense 4.0 4.7 Income tax 0.1 0.0 Depreciation and amortization expense 11.6 12.1 Mark-to-market impact of economic hedges 3.2 (4.3) Purchase accounting amortizations 6.2 5.3 Ongoing Optim Energy EBITDA 6.9 9.8 50 percent of Ongoing EBITDA (PNMR share) 3.5 $ 4.9 $ (in millions)
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A-5 $134 $124 $119 $121 $124 $109 $106 $104 $101 $103 $97 $19 $16 $17 $17 $17
$11 $16 $12 $10 $9
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(In millions)
T&D PNM Generation PNM Renewables Other (Primarily IT) TNMP Advanced Metering System
$370 $262 $252 $249 $253
(2)
(1) Amounts may not visually add due to rounding (2) Pending regulatory approval
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Aug - Dec 2011E 2012E 2013E Incremental Revenue Phase I $ 24 $ 45 $ 45 Phase II
40 Additions Rider
Total Increase in Revenues $24 $85 $105 After-tax impact $ 15 $ 51 $ 63 EPS at 92.1M shares $ 0.16 $ 0.56 $ 0.69 Incremental EPS (year-over-year) $0.16 $0.40 $0.13
Assumptions: Approved as filed, implementation on August 1, 2011
(1) The stipulation includes the collection of an „Additions Rider‟ in 2013 to recover capital additions
made between June 30, 2010 and December 31, 2012. The rider is capped at $20 million.
(In millions, except EPS)
(1)
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Name District Term Ends Party Jason Marks District 1 2012 Democrat Patrick Lyons Chairman District 2 2014 Republican Jerome Block Vice Chairman District 3 2012 Democrat Theresa Becenti-Aguilar District 4 2014 Democrat Ben Hall District 5 2014 Republican
NMPRC Districts and PNM Services Areas
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PNM Retail Current Rates March 31, 2008 $1.5B(2) 50% 10.5% Implied N/A Stipulated Rates June 30, 2010 $1.8B 52% 10.25% Implied $105M(3) PNM FERC Transmission Current Rates
$98.1M(2) 51.8% 10.8% Implied N/A Proposed Rates
$171.0M 49.4% 12.25% $11.1M TNMP Current Retail Rates March 31, 2010 $448.2M 45% 10.125% $10.3M Increase Test Period (1) Allowed Equity Ratio Rate Base ROE
(1) Period is for the 12 months ending on stated date (2) Excludes PNM South (formerly TNMP-New Mexico) rate base (3) Includes “Additions Rider” capped at $20 million to be recovered 2013
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(1) Excludes debt from affiliate.
Tables may not appear visually accurate due to rounding.
Dec 31, Mar 31,
2010 2011
(In millions)
Long-Term Debt (incl. current portion)
PNM 1,055.7 $ 1,055.8 $ TNMP 310.3 310.5 PNMR 199.8 199.8 Consolidated 1,565.8 $ 1,566.0 $
Total Debt (incl. short-term)(1)
PNM 1,245.7 $ 1,267.8 $ TNMP 310.3 310.5 PNMR 231.8 211.8 Consolidated 1,787.8 $ 1,790.0 $
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A-12 PNM Resources (1) PNM Separate TNMP Separate PNM Resources Consolidated (In millions) Financing Capacity: Revolving credit facility $ 542.0 $ 386.0 $ 75.0 $ 1,003.0 Local lines of credit (LOC) 5.0
Total Capacity 547.0 386.0 75.0 1,008.0 Short-term debt & LOC balances 65.1 291.2 0.3 356.6 Remaining availability 481.9 94.8 74.7 651.4 Invested cash
$ 94.8 $ 74.7 $ 651.4 As of 4/28/11:
(1) Includes First Choice Power (2) In August 2011, the PNMR and PNM facilities will be reduced by $25M and $18M, respectively
(2)
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S&P PNM Resources BB- PNM BB+ Outlook: Stable Moody’s PNM Resources Ba2 PNM Baa3 Outlook: Stable
S&P BBB- Outlook: Stable Moody's Baa1 Outlook: Stable
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Coal Unit PNM Share Capacity (MW) Activated Carbon Injection (1) SNCR (2) SCR (2) Baghouse (3) Scrubbers
San Juan Unit 1 170 X X X San Juan Unit 2 170 X X X San Juan Unit 3 249 X X X San Juan Unit 4 194 X X X Four Corners Unit 4 97.5 X X Four Corners Unit 5 97.5 X X
(1) Activated carbon injection systems reduce mercury emissions. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3-year, $320M
environmental upgrade.
(2) SNCR refers to selective non-catalytic reduction systems. SCR refers to selective catalytic reduction systems. Both systems reduce NOx emissions. (3) Baghouses collect flyash and other particulate matter. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3-year, $320M environmental
upgrade.
Coal Unit Total Capacity (MW) Activated Carbon Injection (1) SNCR (2) SCR (2) Baghouse (3) Scrubbers
Twin Oaks Unit 1 152 X X Twin Oaks Unit 2 153 X X