Royal Dutch Shell plc June 7, 2016
Capital markets day 2016 Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class investment case
“Let’s make the future”
Royal Dutch Shell | June 7, 2016
Capital markets day 2016 Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Capital markets day 2016 Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class investment case Royal Dutch Shell plc June 7, 2016 Lets make the future Royal Dutch Shell | June 7, 2016 Ben van Beurden Chief Executive Officer Royal Dutch Shell
Royal Dutch Shell | June 7, 2016
Royal Dutch Shell | June 7, 2016
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Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) 2P + 2C definitions. Resources and potential: Our use of the term “resources and potential” are consistent with SPE 2P + 2C + 2U definitions. Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact. Shales: Our use of the term ‘shales’ refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this release “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this release refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third- party interest. This release contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward- looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this release, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. There can be no assurance that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this release are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this release and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date
information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this release. With respect to operating costs synergies indicated, such savings and efficiencies in procurement spend include economies of scale, specification standardisation and operating efficiencies across
We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this release that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
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Cash engines
today’s free cash flow
Growth priorities
deep water and
Future opportunities
2020+ shales and new
Create a world class
Grow free cash flow per
More resilient and more
Pulling levers to manage
Re-set our costs Reduce debt
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2005 2010 Q1 2016 2000 2050
From 7 to 9 billion by 2050 75% will live in cities Global energy demand to double between 2000 & 2050 World needs more energy; less CO2 New sources New energy carriers New business models OPEC, shales, shorter price cycles Requires new value creation models Global population Growth in oil & g gas demand Energy s system in transition Customer choice Continued oil price volatility Changing resources access
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Global energy demand, million boe per day 100 200 300 2000 2013 2030 IEA 450
Primary energy supply Oil 32% Coal 29% Gas 21% Renewables 4% Nuclear 4%
13 13.7 btoe
Energy consumption
9.4 9.4 btoe 4.3 4.3 btoe
Losses + + transformation Bio-energy 10%
Managin
Contin
New energie
Gas Oil Nuclear Coal Bio-energy Hydro Other renewables
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7
World-class investment case Relevant in our industry +
Reducing our carbon
Shared value
Consideration paid Today Pre-completion view
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* The net asset value, in line with accounting standards, is determined by reference to oil and gas prices, as reflected in the prevailing market view on the day of completion. Oil and gas prices are based on the forward price curve for the first two years (2016: $38, 2017:$44), and subsequent years based on the market consensus price view @ 15 Feb 2016
Synergies: $4.5 billion 2018 Asset value ahead of
Considerable upside potential:
Oil price recovery Shell reset
Cash & shares Net debt Portfolio NAV Synergies PV Valuation based on forward curves / consensus @ 15 Feb 2016* Shell reset Oil price uplift >$10 billion
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ROACE on a clean CCS basis
100 200 300 Dow
Upstream Integrated Gas Cor
Dow
Upstream Integrated Gas Cor
2013 Today
Capital employed in $ billion, end 2013 / Q1 2016
BG acquisition:
Reduced and re-phased pre-FID options Cancelled Carmon Creek + Alaska Divested Woodside (part), Australia
~500 kboed start-ups + 13 FIDs Restructured conv. oil + gas, Nigeria, shales
Royal Dutch Shell | June 7, 2016
CONVENTIONAL OIL + GAS CHEMICALS OIL PRODUCTS DEEP WATER INTEGRATED GAS OIL SANDS MINING SHALES NEW ENERGIES
10
Cash engines: today Growth priorities: 2016+ Future opportunities: 2020+
Royal Dutch Shell | June 7, 2016
Free cash flow
$35 billion
ROACE 8% Interest & other $4 billion Cash dividend $26 billion Buybacks $9 billion Cash Engines $140 billion Growth Priorities $39 billion Future Opportunities
$15 billion Corporate/other
Divestments
Capital al Employed ed Cash flow Free cash flow + + ROACE
$87 billion $23 billion 12 % ROACE $24 billion $0 billion 11 %
$64 billion
$22 billion $3 billion $5 billion $24 billion $11 billion $2 billion Investment (cash) $29 billion
Net debt movement & other $4 billion Balancin
Oil
11 Slide shows end 2015 capital employed and 2013-15 cumulative CFFO and FCF
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Excludes BG acquisition in 2016
25 50 2014 2016E 2017 - 20 avg
Reducin
More predic
Future
Growth priorities Cash engines
$ billion
Shell BG 30 30 25 25
$ $ billion 2016 2016 2017 2017-18 18 Oil products 3 3-4 Conventional
5 5-6 Integrated gas 6 4-5 Oil sands mining <1 <1 Deep water 8 6-7 Chemicals 3 3-4 Shales 2 2-3 New energies <1 <1 Total ~29 ~29 25 25-30 30
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High grade portfolio Exploration to maintain running room Moderate capacity growth rate Prioritise for cash delivery Strengthen the retained core Selective marketing growth Improve macro resilience Capture price upside
Name
15 30 45
2000 2005 2010 2015
Royal Dutch Shell | June 7, 2016
Period-end in million tonnes per annum
Million tonnes per annum
20 40 2000 2005 2010 2015 Liquefaction (Shell) LNG offtake (BG) LNG Peru Nigeria QG-4 Atlantic LNG Oman Sakhalin Malaysia Sabine Pass Equatorial Guinea Pluto NWS Brunei QCLNG Gorgon
Integrated gas is over 30% of Shell 13 mtpa liquefaction growth in Australia 2018 ~75 mtpa liquefaction projects in growth funnel ~20 mtpa market access in growth funnel
16Q1 extrapolated 2018
14
Liquefaction (BG)
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Growth in advantaged geology Brazil + GOM in focus Multi-billion barrels potential Advantaged feedstock + growth markets USA + China growth
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~12 billion barrels resources + potential Mature to ‘growth priority’ Energy transition themes Explore + invest for longer term
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Hydrogen & biofuels Wind & solar alongside gas Customer solutions
Digital platforms Increasing electrification Greater customer choice Renewables growth Disruptive business models Mobility transition
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Creating value for shareholders through cycle Pulling levers today to manage the financial
Multi-year timescales and planning Positioning to cover dividends in down-cycle,
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* Shell’s reserves are calculated on a SEC basis and BG‘s 1P reserves are calculated on a PRMS basis, as published by the SPE
Equity liquefaction capacity in million tonnes per annum 25 50 Shell + BG Exxon Chevron Total BP
billion boe 10 20 30 Exxon BP Shell + BG* Total Chevron
Million boe per day
BG transactio
Increased
Liquids Gas 2015 2018 Shell BG 2 4 Exxon Shell + BG Chevron Total BP
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Deliver safe, efficient operations Management announcements + talent review Understand BG business & practices UK + US office footprint Transition plan: resourcing, systems & processes
End 2016 Integration completed 15 February 2016 BG acquisition completed Day 60 Day 30 Day 90
Combine best practices and retain best staff Staffing of combined organisation Integrated business plan Transition teams move to business as usual
Today
Joint integration
planning team established
Early preparation for
successful integration August 2015
2016 2017 2018
1 2 3 4
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1 Synergies span operating, capital, and raw material cost areas
$ billion
2018 synergie
20
Additional synergies
SG&A Procurement Marketing & shipping
Corporate, administrative,
efficiencies
Reduced costs Procurement spend1
Exploration
Reduced activity via BG combination
Exploration synergies Costs synergies Synergies target as per prospectus
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Powerful levers to underpin
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Integrated gas split out from Upstream from 2011 onwards
$ billion
Portfolio simplification and
Earmarked for disposal Up to10% of oil + gas
~5-10 oil + gas countries Selected mid-stream and
$30 bil
Progressing
10 20 30 2007-09 2010-12 2013-15 2016-18 Downstream/Corporate High grading ‘tail’ Infrastructure + mature positions Refocus portfolio
2016-18 announced:
Showa Shell Maui pipeline Denmark marketing Malaysia refining Motiva JV end Further divestments
pending
Upstream Integrated gas
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* BG organic growth from 1.1.2016 LNG volume includes offtake
Thousand boe per day*
Significant oil & gas +
Capex to free cash flow High margin / price upside
2016-17 start-ups 2014-15 start-ups LNG volume (RHS) 2018+ start-ups Million tonnes per annum
Cash operatin
Tax rate ~35%
5 10 15 400 800 1200 2014-15 2016-17 2018+
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2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017+ 2017+ Oil sands mining Carmon Creek Shales Shales Deep water Appomattox Bonga South West Integrated Gas Arrow Greenfield LNG Elba LNG Browse LNG US GTL Wheatstone LNG Abadi redesign MLNG Dua JVA LNG Canada Lake Charles Sakhalin Train 3 Conventional Bab
ADNOC Expiry MLNG DUA PSC Bokor & Betty EOR Val d’Agri ph2 Majnoon FFD Chemicals Al Karaana Geismar alpha olefins Pennsylvania cracker Nanhai 2nd cracker Oil products Scotford de-bottleneck Pernis de-asphalting
~$45
FID Cancelled/divest
Potential FID Delay/deferral
Frontier
Material reduction in exploration spend BG acquisition + recent Shell discoveries reduces our requirement for exploration More emphasis on Shell’s producing basins Reduced activity, restructuring, lower costs
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$ billion
2 4 6 8 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017/18 avg
$3 billion reduction BG Heartlands ~2.5 7 5 5.5 ~2.5
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$ billion; excludes BG acquisition in 2016
Planning for $25-$30 billion range $30 billion/year ceiling Trending low in range today Options to further reduce below $25 billion if warranted
20 40 60 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017 - 20 avg Growth options/exploration Base + short cycle Committed growth projects BG $25-30 billion 58 47 36 29
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$ billion
20 40 60 2013 2014 2015 end-2016 run-rate $40 b $40 bil illion ion
Substantial reductions delivered “Lower for ever” mindset + BG synergies Staff, supply chain + contractors Divestments , growth, FX impacts
Shell BG 48 50 46 40
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* $60 oil price scenario 2018
Reducing our cash break-even Further options available +/- $10 Brent = ~5 billion CFFO
Divestments Reduce capital investment Reduce
costs Deliver new projects
$ $ billion 20 2015 15 baseline: : Shell + + BG 2016 2016 2017 2017-20 2018 8 potential Operating costs 46 Trend to 40 (underlying) Multi-billion p.a. Capital investment 36 29 25-30 Divestments 6 + 5 6-8 in progress 30 over 2016-18 Projects start-up post-2014 (CFFO) n/a ~$2 billion ~10 billion by 2018*
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Royal Dutch Shell | June 7, 2016
2019-2021 average 2013-2015 average
32
Royal Dutch Shell | June 7, 2016
Royal Dutch Shell | June 7, 2016