January 2019 Developing one of the lowest capital cost potash projects in the world
capital cost potash projects in the world January 2019 Two out of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
capital cost potash projects in the world January 2019 Two out of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Developing one of the lowest capital cost potash projects in the world January 2019 Two out of every five people on Earth today owe their lives to the higher crop outputs that fertiliser has made possible. -Bill Gates- 1 Feeding a
“Two out of every five people on Earth today owe their lives to the higher crop outputs that fertiliser has made possible.”
1
- Bill Gates-
2
Source: World Bank
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019
Over the next 30 years population will increase by approximately2.2bn
2020 2050
=
Adding9 cities the size ofLondon
every year for 30 years
200%growth in Africa’s population… …accounting for over50% of world’s population growth
2020 2050
Feeding a Growing Population
Africa has 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land and among the worlds lowest fertiliser application rates
3
Fertiliser Application
(kg per hectare of arable land)
2014 (group)
<25kg/ha 25-50kg/ha 50-100kg/ha >100kg/ha Source: World Bank
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019
600 million arable hectares
The Khemisset Project Northern Morocco
The Khemisset Potash Project Northern Morocco
Morocco is a Top 5 Fastest Growing Import Market for Potash
4 Corporate Presentation Q1 2019
125,000 250,000 375,000 500,000
2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
MOP IMPORTS TO MOROCCO
Source: www.oc.gov.ma/DataBase/CommerceExterieur/requete.htm, Company Estimates
Global Potash Demand Growth – 2-3% per annum
F
~500Kt
Only Two Things Matter in Potash Development
5
Capital Cost to Production
Can you make an economic return in a low or “normal” price environment?
Location Relative to Customer and End Prices
Do you have a competitive advantage over your producing peers?
1 2
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019
Khemisset among the lowest capital cost projects in the world and very close to end markets
6 Corporate Presentation Q1 2019
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Sierra del Perdon Muga Holbrook Gensource Holbrook Danakil Wynyard Potash Project Sintoukola Autazes Muskowekwan Garlyk Mengo Usolskiy Rio Colorado Volgakaliy Hatch Estimate for Canada Jansen Bethune
CAPITAL INTENSITY - US$/TONNE PRODUCTION
Global Peer Average Capital Intensity US$1,142/tonne
Source: Company Research, Optiva Research
Emmerson Capital Intensity US$520/tonne
Outstanding Project Fundamentals
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019 7
* Assumes flat real price of US$360/tonne CFR Brazil price, nominal cashflows including 2% cost and revenue escalation ** including 30% of contingency
A rare combination of very low capital cost and very high margins
US$1.14bn
Post Tax NPV10
(using industry expert Argus Media
forecast prices)
EBITDA margins
~64%*
- Ave. post tax
cashflow of
US$184M*
per annum Less than 3.25yr capital payback
- Ave. steady state annual
production rate
800,000
Metric tonnes
29.8%*
IRR
20 years
Initial Life of Mine
Significant Potential to Expand
8 Corporate Presentation Q1 2019
*The potential quantity and grade of the Exploration Target expressed in this release is conceptual in nature, there has been insufficient exploration to estimate a JORC (2012) Mineral Resource and it is uncertain if further exploration will result in the estimation of Mineral Resource
JORC Exploration Target*
Tonnage Range (Mt) Grade Range (K2O %)
264-616 5.0-14.0
Drilling underway at Khemisset to upgrade existing JORC Resource
9 Corporate Presentation Q1 2019
World Class Asset with High Strategic Value
GLOBAL OLIGOPOLY MARKET WITH INCUMBENTS TIGHTLY CONTROLLING SUPPLY EBITDA MARGINS ESTIMATED TO BE >60% AMONG THE LOWEST CAPITAL COST PROJECTS GLOBALLY LARGE SCALE ASSET
Fertiliser Companies with limited downstream exposure to K
The Next Steps
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019 10
Commence Feasibility Study Bankable metallurgical test work programme Completion
- f drilling
and upgrade resource Deliver Scoping Study
2019 will be a year of significant news flow for Emmerson
The he Kh Khem emisset isset Pr Projec
- ject
11
Geology
12
General
- Sedimentary deposits
- Typically formed by inland seas being cut-off from
- ceans and evaporating causing precipitation
- Basins can extend for thousands of km2
- Most potash basins have large sandstone
sequences that contain fresh water aquifers Khemisset Basin
- Typical sedimentary potash basin
- Overlain with reasonably thick, competent, basalt
sequence
- No sandstone sequence with no evidence of
- verlying aquifer unit
- Total area over 1,200km2 prospective for
mineralisation
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019
DEAD SEA WORKS (ICL & ARAB PO ANNUAL PRODUCTION ~ 6MTP
Access to Mineralisation a Key to Low Capex
13
1) Highfield DFS 30 Mar 2015 with 30% contingency added 2) Emmerson PLC RNS: “Decline Cost Estimate Indicates Very Low Capex Access to Mineralisation” 17 September 2018 with 30% contingency 3) Kore Potash NI43-101 17 September 2012 including 20% contingency 4) Passport Potash NI43-101 17 October 2013 with 30% contingency added 5) http://publications.gov.sk.ca/documents/310/93667-PotashRequirementGuide%20Rev1.pdf with 30% contingency 6) BHP Annual Report 2017 no detail on contingencyDecline Long Section with Lithology
Comparison of Costs of Decline or Shaft Access at Various Projects
Mining
- Potash to be mined by Conventional Room and
Pillar Mining
- Solution Mining and Longwall Mining were also
evaluated, Room and Pillar selected because:
High production rate Multiple working faces Lower upfront capital cost High level of flexibility
- Continuous miners selected for ore extraction and
underground infrastructure development
- Both herringbone and long room will be employed
in panels
- Potential to improve extraction ratios with pillar
retreat extraction
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019 14
Conventional mining is lowest technical risk and most flexible extraction method
Processing
- Processing via Hot Leaching and KCI
Crystallisation
- Flotation also evaluated, Crystallisation
selected because: Lower technical, metallurgical and
- perational risk
Well understood from a capital and
- perating cost perspective
- Mass and energy balances, detailed
equipment lists and process flow diagrams all completed for Scoping Study
- Dynamic recovery rates calculated, with
83.6% recoveries expected for LOM average grade of 9.4% K2O
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019 15
Pre-Warmed Liquor Hot Leaching Brine to Hot Leaching Overflow to Mother Liquor Usage to Mashing/ Washing Potash Ore Screening/Milling Milled Ore (optional) Milled Ore Decomposition Rinneite Fraction Sylvite/Halite Fraction Mother Liquor Slurry Magnetic Separation Filtrate Mashing/Washing Filtration/Washing V Wet Halite/Sylvite Mashing Slurry Underflow Filtrate Filtration I Thickening I Thickening V Filtrate Overflow (Part) Hot Leaching Brine Debrined Solids Overflow Soda Limestone Hot KCl Brine Overflow Wet Halite/Sylvite CaCl2 Brine Leaching Overflow Filtrates Wet Halite/Slyvite Flocculant Flocculant Multistage Hot Leaching Filtration III Solar Evaporation Leaching Underflow Solid Residues Thickening II Thickening III Harvesting of Solids (optional() Underflow Underflow to Mashing/Washing (optional) Mother Liquor KCl Crystallisation 1st Section Pre-Warmed Liquor KCl Slurry Heat Exchangers Thickening VI Overflow Overflow Cooling Water KCl Crystallisation 2nd Section Filtration II Brine Cleaning Filtrates Solid Residues Cooling Water Return Condensate Steam Surplus Overflow Thickening I Surplus Brine Soda Dried KCl Product Compaction Process (optional) Compacted KCl Product KCl 95 Product (Standard) KCl 95 Product (Red Granular) Wet KCl Solids Underflow Filtrate back to Crystallisation 2nd Section Drying Off-Gases Underflow Mashing Slurry Centrifuges Wet Solid Residues Product Post-Treatment Saleable KCl Product Fuel Air Thickening IV Filtration VI Filtrate Solid Residues Cooled KCl Slurry Leaching Overflow Flocculant HydrocyclonesKhemisset Process Flow Diagram
Utilities and Infrastructure
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019 16
Proposed new mine access road
- Short connections to existing
roads (1.2km) and electrical infrastructure (5.5km)
- Port with existing capacity 150km
from site requires only minor upgrades
Cross section of reclaim and ship loading facilities Approximate location of connection points in relation to mine infrastructure area
Why is Location so Important?
17
Royalties, transport and logistics make up 60% to 70% of Canadian delivered cost to Brazil
Source: Company Research, Nutrien Annual Report; Canada Pacific Railway Annual Report
Saskatoon
Location Advantage is worth US$67-108/tonne in delivered cost to Brazil
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019
1,700km by Rail US$40-45/tonne Shipping Vancouver - Brazil US$30-35/tonne Saskatchewan Royalties US$20-30/tonne Canadian Delivery Cost to Brazil US$95-130/tonne Nominal Royalties US$0.10/tonne 90km Truck to Port US$10/tonne Shipping Morocco – Brazil US$12-18/tonne Moroccan Delivery Cost to Brazil US$22-28/tonne Panama Canal US$5-10/tonne
Nearly 70% of global potash supply is very remote from end markets
Industry All-in-Sustaining Delivered Cost Curve to CFR Brazil
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019 18
50 100 150 200 250 300
$US/Tonne Mining Processing Royalties, Sustaining Capital, and S,G&A Freight
Transport and logistics typically accounts for more than 50% of delivered cost to customer
Source: Argus, November 2018
Scoping Study: Key Assumptions and Results
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019 19
Parameter Value Initial Operating Life 20 years Annual ROM Extraction Rate 6Mtpa Average Life of Mine Grade to Mill 9.35% K2O Average Metallurgical Recovery (LOM) 83.6% Average Annual Steady State Production Rate 800,000 metric tonnes Flat Real MOP Price CFR Brazil US$360/tonne Capital Cost (including US$90m contingency) US$406 million Total Cash Cost FOB Port of Mohammedia US$115.4/tonne All-in-Sustaining Cash Cost FOB Port of Mohammedia US$147.6/tonne Average Steady State Annual EBITDA US$236 million Average Steady State EBITDA Margin 63.5% Average Steady State Annual Post-Tax Cash Flow (nominal) US$184 million Average Steady State Cash Margin 50.0% Post Tax NPV10 (nominal) US$795 million Post Tax IRR (nominal) 29.8% Post-tax Payback Period 3.25yrs Discount Rate MOP CFR Brazil US$300 US$320 US$340 US$360 US$380 US$400 US$420 5.0% 929 1,121 1,312 1,504 1,695 1,887 2,078 7.5% 641 791 940 1,090 1,240 1,389 1,539 10.0% 437 556 676 795 915 1,034 1,153 12.5% 289 386 483 580 678 775 872 15.0% 179 260 341 421 502 582 663
NPV Sensitivity to Potash Price and Discount Rate
- Ave. Life of Mine Steady State Post-Tax Cashflow at Various Potash Prices
Flat MOP CFR Price (US$/tonne) 300 320 340 360 380 400 420
- Ave. Steady State Post-Tax
Cashflow US$m/year (Nominal) 130 148 166 184 202 221 239
- Ave. Life of Mine Steady State EBITDA at Various Potash Prices
Flat MOP CFR Brazil Price (US$/tonne) 300 320 340 360 380 400 420
- Ave. Steady State EBITDA
US$m/year (Nominal) 176 196 216 236 256 276 296
Key Assumptions and Results Cashflow & EBITDA Sensitivity to Potash Price
Morocco: An Attractive Investment Jurisdiction
20
Morocco has been recognised for its supportive fiscal regime, stability and geological potential
Investment Risk Index (higher = better) Mor Morocco v
- cco vot
- ted
ed number number one o
- ne over
erall all jur jurisdiction isdiction for
- r mining in A
mining in Afr frica ica in 2018 in 2018 Favour
- urable F
ble Fiscal R iscal Regime gime
Nominal royalties (less than 0.1%) 5 year tax holiday for new mining projects 50% reduction in corporate income tax for exported products 1st – Lowest Investment Risk in Africa 1st – Highest Opportunity Index in Africa 1st – Best Infrastructure in Africa
Source: Mining Journal World Risk Report 2018 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 New York New South Wales Germany Japan Portugal Morocco Cote D'Ivoire Botswana Saudi Arabia Brazil Thailand Poland South Africa Italy Tanzania Mali Mozambique China India
Source: Mining Journal World Risk Report 2018
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019
Stakeholder Support
Key Stakeholders outside the offices of the Governor of the Khemisset Province together with members of the Emmerson Board of Directors
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019 21
Stakeholder meeting in the offices of the Governor of the Khemisset Province
A Stakeholder day was held aimed at increasing the Project awareness and stakeholder engagement which are key facets
- f the IFC Performance Standards for the
Project development The meeting was both well attended and supported by a broad profile of interested parties
Developing a social licence to operate in the Khemisset Region
Edward McDermott– Non-Executive Director
15 years’ experience in the management and financing of small companies. Currently a Non-Executive Director of AIM listed companies Fishing Republic Plc and FastForward Innovations Ltd. Previously served as a Director of AIM listed Stellar Resources Plc and Noricum Gold Ltd. He is part of the corporate finance team at Optiva Securities Limited
Highly Experienced Team
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019 22
Hayden Locke – Executive Director & CEO
~15 years’ experience in mining, private equity and investment
- banking. Most recently Head of Corporate and Technical
Services at ASX listed potash developer Highfield Resources. Prior to this, Hayden was Head of Corporate for ASX listed Papillon Resources which was sold in 2014 for $650 million. Hayden studied engineering, commerce and geology.
Dr Robert Wrixon – Executive Director
Led Moroccan Salts Limited since its inception. 18 years’ commercial experience in mining including 5 years with Xstrata, and as MD and CEO of ASX listed Manhattan Corporation Limited and Haranga Resources Limited. He is a Director and founding Partner of Starboard Global, a natural resource PE group and holds a PhD in mineral engineering from the University of California, Berkeley.
BOARD
Lahcen Alloubane – Manager, Logistics and Operations
A Moroccan national with a Masters of Business Administration and nearly 10 years’ experience in the mining sector including with Moroccan based tin developer Kasbah Resources.
Enrique Sanz PhD – Consultant Geologist
A geologist with 20 years’ experience in industrial minerals, primarily evaporite minerals. Formerly project geologist for worldwide exploration with Rio Tinto PLC. Extensive experience in Khemisset Basin and other Triassic – Liassic salt basins of Morocco.
Phil Cleggett – Head of Corporate Development
A qualified accountant with ~10 years’ experience in mining and investment
- banking. Most recently, he was Manager Corporate Strategy of ASX listed
potash developer Highfield Resources.
Mohamed Ouabid – Project Geologist
A geologist and Moroccan national with over 15 years’ experience in a variety of commodities including potash. Previously worked for ASX listed Kasbah Resources as well as a number of Moroccan mining entities including Managem.
MANAGEM GEMENT ENT
Said Hamdioui – Advisor
Mr Hamdioui, a Moroccan national, with more than 16 year professional
- experience. He is a co-founder of MSL Minerals Limited, and has been
involved with the Khemisset Project since 2014 focussing on national stakeholder engagement and management.
Mark Connelly– Non Executive Chairman
An internationally experienced financial and commercial executive with 30 years’ experience in the financing and development of mining projects. He has worked with a number
- f
multinational companies and across multiple jurisdictions. He served as MD and CEO
- f
Papillon Resources Limited that was sold in 2014 for $650 million.
Summary
23
Exploration risk mitigated Large JORC compliant resource with significant upside from exploration target Number 1 African investment jurisdiction in 2018 Potential for low capital cost, high margin development confirmed by Scoping Study Experienced Board and Management Strong potash demand against rebalancing supply Defined development path with longer term investment thesis of creating a mid-tier multi nutrient fertiliser company
Corporate Presentation Q1 2019
Well funded with a cash balance of over £3.5 million to execute strategy quickly
Emmer Emmerson PL son PLC
Ha Hayden Locke – Executive Director
hayden.locke@emmersonplc.com
Phil Cl Cleggett – Corporate Development
phil.cleggett@emmersonplc.com
Opt ptiva iva Secur Securit ities Limi ies Limited ed
Gr Graeme me Di Dickso son
Corporate Broker
+44 20 3137 1904
St St Brides P ides Par artner ners Limi s Limited ed
Lottie Wadham/Ga Gaby y Jenner Financial PR +44 20 7236 1177
Contacts
24
London Office Third Floor 47 Charles Street Mayfair London W1J 5EL Registered Office IOMA House Hope Street Douglas Isle of Man IM1 1AP
ww www.emmer .emmersonplc.com sonplc.com @emmer emmerson_ son_plc plc
Corporate Structure
25 Corporate Presentation Q1 2019
KEY DATA *
Ticker EML.L Shares in Issue 626,132,385 Ordinary Shares Market Cap £18.15 million Share Price 3p Ave Volume 1.82 million shares
KEY SHAREHOLDERS
Management and Associates 19.24%
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Date 07/06/2018 14/06/2018 21/06/2018 28/06/2018 05/07/2018 12/07/2018 19/07/2018 26/07/2018 02/08/2018 09/08/2018 16/08/2018 23/08/2018 31/08/2018 07/09/2018 14/09/2018 21/09/2018 28/09/2018 05/10/2018 12/10/2018 19/10/2018 26/10/2018 02/11/2018 09/11/2018 16/11/2018 23/11/2018 Vooume Trad rade (mi millions) Share are Price - Pence
Share Price ice Performance ce and Volu lume
Volume Close
Emmerson acquired the assets via a Reverse Takeover
Disclaimer
This presentation (“Presentation”) is being provided to you (the “Recipient”) by Emmerson PLC (the “Company”) for information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer or invitation to sell or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities of the Company. The content of this Presentation has not been approved by an authorised person for the purposes of Section 21(2)(b) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Reliance on this Presentation for the purpose of engaging in any investment activity may expose an individual to a significant risk of losing all of the property or other assets invested. This Presentation is not an admission document or an advertisement and does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer or invitation to sell or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any ordinary shares of the Company (“Shares”) in the United States or any other jurisdiction where the sale of Shares is restricted or prohibited. Neither the Presentation, nor any part of it nor anything contained or referred to in it, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement in relation to a decision to purchase or subscribe for or enter into any contract or make any other commitment whatsoever in relation to any Shares. Whilst the Presentation has been prepared in good faith, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by or on behalf of the Company, its respective directors and affiliates or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this Presentation and no responsibility or liability whatsoever is or will be accepted by the Company, its respective directors and affiliates or any other person for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of such information or- pinions or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Any such liability is expressly disclaimed.
- r opinions contained in this Presentation. To the fullest extent permitted by law, the Company nor any of their respective members, directors, officers, employees, agents or representatives nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any
- perations. These forward-looking statements are identified by the use of words such as “believe”, “expect”, “potential”, “continue”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “seek”, “approximately”, “predict”, “intend”, “plan”, “estimate”, “anticipate” or other comparable
- words. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these
- statements. Should any assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements contained in this Presentation prove to be incorrect, the actual outcome or results may differ materially from outcomes or results projected in these statements. The
26 Corporate Presentation Q1 2019