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Can South Africa meet its Paris Agreement targets?
James Reeler (WWF-SA)
One Million Climate Jobs Cape Town, Oct 2019
Carbon tax
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Can South Africa meet its Paris Agreement targets? One Million - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Can South Africa meet its Paris Agreement targets? One Million - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Can South Africa meet its Paris Agreement targets? One Million Climate Jobs Cape Town, Oct 2019 James Reeler (WWF-SA) Carbon tax R120/t CO 2 2 Carbon tax R120/t CO 2 (on only 5-10%) 5-10% carbon offset 5% carbon budget compliance 5%
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Carbon tax
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R120/t CO2 10% process/fugitive emissions 60% basic allowance 10% trade exposure 5% above-average performance 5% carbon budget compliance 5-10% carbon offset
R120/t CO2 (on only 5-10%)
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SA’s Mitigation System (GHG/DNA economics)
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Implementation of carbon tax, and agreement that this will be aligned with the mitigation system through use of the tax to enforce compliance with the budgets
Limiting carbon budgets to only cover Scope 1 (or direct) emissions and not Scope 2 (indirect) emissions
Exclusion of carbon trading from the system
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Sectoral emission targets
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Electricity generation Liquid fuels Transport Industry Agriculture Buildings Land use and forestry Waste DME DoT DTI DoA DPubWorks/DTI DEFF/ DRD ??
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2020-2025 2026-2030 2030-2035
Sectoral emission targets (indicative process)
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Electricity generation Liquid fuels Transport Industry Agriculture Buildings
Land use and forestry
Waste Electricity generation Liquid fuels Transport Industry Agriculture Buildings
Land use and forestry
Waste Electricity generation Liquid fuels Transport Industry Agriculture Buildings
Land use and forestry
Waste
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Sectoral emission targets to budgets
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Industry SET (administered by DTI) Company A Company B Company C Company E Company D Newcomers Reserve
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Carbon budgets (post-2020)
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Carbon budget (grandfathered allowance) Tax with allowances (@R6-R48) Budget exceedance (Full penalty tax @R120)
Allocated budget
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What is still missing?
- Climate Bill needed to implement SETs/budgets
- Present to cabinet in Dec 2019?
- Must be complete by 2020 for articulations
- Potential for many of the elements to be integrated
under NEM:AQA
- Drive ambition in all government departments
- IRP must reflect greater shift
- Stronger carbon price signal (second phase)
- DEFF waiting for mandate from NPC
- DoE?
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CAN SA MEET ITS PARIS AGREEMENT OBLIGATIONS?
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YES.
- The target is conservative, and only commits to 2030
- PPD
11 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Peak, plateau and decline
PPD
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Will we?
12 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2014 MPA National Emissions Projections (MtCO2e)
PPD WOM WEM WAM-100%
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Will we?
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100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MPA Update GHG Emissions Projections (MtCO2e)
PPD-Lower PPD WOM WEM WAM
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With All Measures trajectory (ktCO2e)
2000 2030 2050 Energy 329,668 339,196 (103%) 261,418 (79%) IPPU 34,529 42,230 (122%) 54,904 (159%) Waste 4,844 12,746 (263%) 19,349 (399%) AFOLU 28,713 29,002 (101%) 42,638 (148%) Total 100% 106% 95%
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Ambition?
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1.5°C needs net zero by 2050
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What does ambition look like?
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Oyewo, A.S., Aghahosseini, A., Ram, M., Lohrmann, A. & Breyer, C. 2019. Pathway towards achieving 100% renewable electricity by 2050 for South Africa. Solar
- Energy. 191:549–565. DOI:
10.1016/j.solener.2019.09.039. “Best policy” scenario is 100% RE by 2050 at 25% lower cost (50% if you include carbon costs)
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What does ambition look like?
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JOBS? “Best policy” – 100% RE “Coal policy” – Continued coal
2050 zero emissions electricity sector goal is achievable in line with just transition.
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Thank you
www.wwf.org jreeler@wwf.org.za