Cameron Village: Then & Now Case Study May 17, 2017 Overview - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Cameron Village: Then & Now Case Study

May 17, 2017

• Growth & Density: Comparing 2006 & 2016

– What’s happened to the population, parking, traffic, home sale values, rental rates, retail sales, retail lease rates, retail mix, office rents/square footage, quality of life?

• Why 2006?

– Before apartment growth & recession

Overview

Study Area

Population Area 2006 2016 % Growth

Cameron Village Study Area 3,400 3,700 9%

Not surprising with mature market area

Raleigh 348,000 438,000 25% But let’s go back... Raleigh’s population was 65,679 in 1950 and Cameron Village had just opened.

History: A True ULI Story

History: A True ULI Story

History: A True ULI Story

History: A True ULI Story

Case Study: 2006 – 2016

Home Values Area 2006 2016 % ∆

Cameron Village Transactions: 45 Transactions: 47 4% Median Sales Price: $281,884 Median Sales Price: $363,382 29% Per SF: $178.82 Per SF: $215.83 21% Average SF: 1,508 Average SF: 1,642 9% Days on Market: 46 Days on Market: 37

• 20%

Raleigh Transactions: 4,258 Transactions: 4,038

• 5%

Median Sales Price: $246,210 Median Sales Price: $315,225 28% Per SF: $128.97 Per SF: $154.28 20% Average SF: 1,889 Average SF: 2,006 6% Days on Market: 57 Days on Market: 33

• 42%

CV area homes 39% higher per SF than Raleigh as whole. CV area homes 40% higher per SF than Raleigh as whole.

Source: MLS

New Multifamily in Study Area since 2005

Complex Date Opened # of Units April 2017 Effective Rents/SF April 2017 Vacancy Oberlin Court 2005 370 $1.18 6% 401 Oberlin Spring 2014 244 $1.56 7% The Berkshire Fall 2014 282 $1.61 8% 616 at the Village January 2017 207 $1.77 91%

Source: Costar

Multi-Family Class A Average Rent/Unit Area Average Rent/Unit

Cameron Village Study Area (April 2017 – Effective Rent) $1,547 Wake County (2016 – Asking Rent) $1,202 Percentage higher Rent in Cameron Village than Wake County 29%

Source: Costar

Class A Multifamily Sub-Market Comparisons

Sub Market # of Units Vacancy Rate

April 2017

Rent per SF

April 2017

Crabtree 817 17.9 $1.24 North Hills 1,525 13% $1.55 Trader Joe’s 1,021 19.3% $1.27 Downtown 2,452 12.1% $1.75 Cameron Village 1,103 22.7%* $1.47

• Class A projects completed after 2000
• Minimum community size is 50 units
• Source: Costar; Analysis: Marcus Jackson, Trademark Properties

* Mostly due to 616 at the Village; without 616, vacancy is 7%.

Office Area 2006 2016 % ∆

Cameron Village Number of Office Buildings: 14 Number of Office Buildings: 16 7% Rentable SF: 461,253 Rentable SF: 452,756

• 6%

Annual Average Rent/SF: $16.74 Annual Average Rent/SF: $21.37 28% Vacancy Rate: 19% Vacancy Rate: 7%

• 63%

Raleigh Rentable SF: 23,476,765 Rentable SF: 52,213,768 122% Annual Average Rent/SF: $21.62 Annual Average Rent/SF: $26.05 20% Vacancy Rate: 13.12% Vacancy Rate: 14.42% 10% CV Rents/SF are 23% lower than Raleigh Rents/SF CV Vacancy is 45% higher than Raleigh CV Rents/SF are 18% lower than Raleigh Rents/SF (older building stock) although rents increased at faster rate than in Raleigh. CV Vacancy is 52% lower than Raleigh

Source: SPACE

Office: Lost & Added Since 2006

Lost Office Built RSF Rate Reason

Oberlin Place, 616 Oberlin 1985 28,000 $17.00 Demolished for 616 at the Village 1300 St. Mary’s 1984 39,396 $14.00 Conversion to Condo 400 Oberlin Rd 1953 14,869 $13.50 Demolished for Berkshire 401 Oberlin Rd 1957 57,394 $16.50 Demolished for 401 Oberlin Apts Ballentine Building, 410 Oberlin 1960 10,000 $13.50 Demolished for Berkshire

Added Office* Built RSF Rate

1122 Oberlin 1992 24,617 $23.95 Junior League Building 2010 27,640 $19.50 1033 Wade 2003 27,402 $21.00 1720 Hillsborough 1968 18,222 $14.50 815 Oberlin 2016 12,729 $23.00 615 Oberlin 1965 18,792 $17.50 Total Net Loss since 2006:

(8,497)

* including rehabs

Cameron Village Retail Center

Cameron Village Parking

Gross Leasable Area 557,936 SF Number of Parking Spaces 1999 Parking Ratio per 1000 SF Leasable Area 3.6 Spaces Parking Ratio 1/279 SF

Average Commercial Tenure

Study Area Cameron Village Core Area 10.19 Years 14.32 Years

Average Parking Ratios

National Retailers 5 or 1/200 SF Retail Center 4-4.5 or 1/222-250 SF ULI Suggests 2.9 – 3.2 or 1/312-344 SF

Cameron Village Retail: 2006 – 2016 Data Pts 2007 2016 Takeaways

Store Mix Grocery/Drug: 117,213 Grocery/Drug: 117,213 SF Restaurants: 116% ↑ Restaurant (7): 30,840 SF Restaurant (19): 66,781 SF Library: ↑ 36,000 Library: 36,000 SF Retail: 50 storefronts Office / Service: 12 Store Lease Rates Average rents increased 40% 40% ↑ Sales/SF Grocery: $526/SF Grocery: $636/SF Grocery: 21% ↑ Restaurants: $380/SF Restaurants: $460/SF Restaurants: 21% ↑ Non Food Retail: $265/SF Non Food Retail: $307/SF Non Food Retail: 16% ↑ Total Reporting Avg.: $316/SF Total Reporting Avg.: $413/SF Total Reporting Avg.: 31% ↑ Source: Regency Centers

Cameron Village vs. Average Retail Data Pts

Cameron Village Regency Raleigh Retail Portfolio Avg.

Takeaways

Parking Ratio (per 1000 SF of leasable area) 3.6 (excludes adjoining street & residential garage parking) Typical Regency Asset: 4.5 Pedestrian Overlay allows lower parking ratio Shopper Demographics 70% female between ages 15 – 65 Sales/SF Average: $413/SF Regency Raleigh Portfolio Average: $383/SF Non Grocery retail sales @ Cameron represent 65% of total sales vs. 32% in Regency Raleigh Portfolio

• Source: Regency Centers

Cameron Village Property Tax

$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Millions Building Value Land Value Total Value $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Millions Building Value Land Value Total Value

Cameron Village Raleigh

• Pre-recession citywide value increases at a greater rate than Cameron Village 2000 – 2008
• Post recession Cameron Village value increases at a greater rate than citywide 2008 – 2016
• Overall Cameron Village value increases at a greater rate than citywide: 35.8% vs. 14.5%, 2012 to 2016

Clark & Oberlin Traffic Trends

• AM Peak: 2% decrease since 2008
• PM Peak: 37% increase since 2008

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Vehicles Per Hour Date

AM Peak

EB Clark WB Clark NB Oberlin SB Oberlin 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Vehicles Per Hour Date

PM Peak

EB Clark WB Clark NB Oberlin SB Oberlin

50 100 150 200 250 300 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Vehicles Per Hour Date

AM Peak

EB Cameron WB Cameron NB Woodburn SB Woodburn

Cameron & Woodburn Traffic Trends

• AM Peak: 4% increase since 2004 but 50% decrease since 2008
• PM Peak: 7% increase since 2004 but 4% decrease between 2008

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Vehicles Per Hour Date

PM Peak

EB Cameron WB Cameron NB Woodburn SB Woodburn

100 200 300 400 500 600 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Vehicles Per Hour Date

AM Peak

EB Peace WB Peace NB St Marys SB St Marys

Peace & St. Marys Traffic Trends

• AM Peak: 3% decrease since 2008
• PM Peak: 31% increase since 2008

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Vehicles Per Hour Date

PM Peak

EB Peace WB Peace NB St Marys SB St Marys

Traffic Operations Map

Transit Boardings

0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00

Boardings and Alightings 3 Year Average

Boardings Alightings

• 2 parallel processes:
• National Register Historic District

– City updating National Register Study Report – Raleigh Historic Development Commission will consider; make recommendation to Council – Council’s action forwarded to State Historic Preservation Office for review and recommendation

• Historic Overlay District

– Neighbors and residents asked Council to initiate rezoning – Neighbors collecting signatures from at least half of property owners to indicate support

Oberlin Village

Quality of Life Survey: Targeted Facebook Outreach

14, 14,044 044 3, 3,482 482 126 126

TA TARGETED VIEWS VI VIEWERS RS RE RESPONS NSES

Quality of Life Survey:

Targeted WRAL Embedded Surveys

7, 7,726 726 2, 2,134 134 93 93

TA TARGETED VIEWS VI VIEWERS RS RE RESPONS NSES

Quality of Life Survey:

Sample

Quality of Life Survey:

Rent vs. Own

Quality of Life Survey:

How long have you lived here?

Quality of Life Survey:

Do you like living in Cameron Village?

Renters Owners

Quality of Life Survey:

What do you like about living here?

Proximity Variety of Retail Convenience Walkability Safety People Streetscape

62 Comments

Quality of Life Survey:

What do you not like?

Traffic Parking Expensive Construction Noise Pedestrian Access Hours

63 Comments

Quality of Life Survey:

Has your quality of life changed in the past five years?

Renters Owners

Quality of Life Survey:

Restaurants get the foot traffic

How often do you walk to ... Restaurants & Dining Grocery & Service Retail

Quality of Life Survey:

How much of your shopping do you do in Cameron Village?

Residents Non-residents

(small sample)

Quality of Life Survey:

Do you think you’ll move within the next five years?

Renters Owners

Quality of Life Survey:

Do you think you’ll move within the next 5 years?

Ne Never w walk lk 1-2 2 times es per per week eek 3+ 3+ times es per per week eek

How often do you walk to restaurants & dining?

• Takeaway: the more you walk, the less likely you are to move.

• Between 2006 – 2016:

– Overall sales ↑ 31% – Lease rates ↑ 40% – Overall home values per SF ↑ 21% – City population ↑ 25% – Walking correlated directly with happiness in living in Cameron Village

• Home values approximately 40% higher in Cameron

Village area compared to Raleigh

• Overall traffic ↑8% between 2008 – 2015

– Proportional with area population growth

Key Takeaways

• History of adapting to market trends
• How will Cameron Village adapt in the future?
• Repositioning of retail? Diversity of offerings?
• Redevelopment of Class B & C

apartments/condos?

• Improvements to infrastructure?

– Oberlin Road and traffic management? – Streetscape from Capital Boulevard along Peace Street to Cameron Village?

• Wade Avenue and former Rex Hospital

redevelopment?

What does the future hold?

Back of the Envelope: Potential Development

Analysis Additional Opportunities

Source: City of Raleigh

64.4 Acres potentially in play

Cameron Village: Then & Now Case Study

May 17, 2017