California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004 - - PDF document

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

1

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future

May 6, 2004

Strategic Planning

In March 2003, a two day strategic

planning retreat was held.

Current State Analysis Future Direction Develop Strategic Focus Areas Define & Implement Action Plans

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

2

The Current State Analysis

Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats

Walnut Production - Linear

100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000 200,000 225,000 250,000 275,000 300,000 325,000 350,000 375,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

3

Our Future Direction

The industry will increase utilization by

50 million shelled pounds (116 million inshell pounds – 58,000 tons) over the next five (5) years.

We will focus on our key markets!

US, Japan, Germany, Spain, schools and

food banks, etc

Evaluate China and India

Area of Strategic Focus

Marketing Health Production Research Government Relations

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

4

Learning from Experience

Shipment Data Market Intelligence

Imports Level of Competition Price premiums

Shipment Data

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

5

Shipments to Japan Inshell Equivalent Short Tons

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3

Shipments to Japan Shelled Pounds (000)

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

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Shipments to Germany Shelled Pounds (000)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3

Shipments to Germany Inshell Pounds (000)

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

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Shipments to Korea Shelled Pounds (000)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3

Shipments to Israel Shelled Pounds (000)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

8

Shipments to Israel Inshell Pounds (000)

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3

Shipments to Spain Shelled Pounds (000)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

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Shipments to Spain Inshell Pounds (000)

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3

Shelled Walnut Exports Pounds (000)

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

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Shelled Success

Since the 1985/86 crop-year

Shelled walnuts exports are up 650% The export share of shelled shipments is

up from 9.5% to 32.7%

The export market is the premium market Shelled utilization is up 88%

Inshell is Still Important

Early shipments Maintain traditional markets We enjoy a comparative advantage We can stimulate shipments after

January 1

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

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Shipment History

Second Half of Crop-Year

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 1,000 Pounds 1999 2000 2001 2002 Shelled Inshell

Foreign Competition

France (28M MT) Italy (17M MT) Turkey (77M MT) India (25M MT) Chile (12M MT) China (350M MT) ?

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

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China – Market or Menace

Production levels in doubt Potential is unquestionable Economy is strong Internal consumption is up Exports are down dramatically WTO?

The Wonderful World of WTO

Free Trade Agreements

Japan and Korea Could China strike a deal? Will tariffs come down in the WTO Doha

Round?

Will we benefit from the US/Korea

renegotiation of the rice regimen?

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

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The $64 Question!

What Does the Future Hold

There are many variables. Half full/half empty? Productivity the key! There will be markets – at what price? How strong will the health message be?

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

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The Current Marketplace

US Japan Germany Spain Israel Canada Korea

The New Marketplace

China EU Development The Middle East Increased utilization in the current

marketplace!

California Walnut Commission Marketing for the Future May 6, 2004

Dennis A. Balint, Walnut Marketing Board

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Conclusion

The California walnut industry will enjoy

success over the next decade.

Threats do exist but so do opportunities