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Points to Remember About California Higher Education California Assembly Higher Education Committee Sacramento, CA February 19, 2013 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Dennis Jones,

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National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301

Points to Remember About California Higher Education

California Assembly Higher Education Committee Sacramento, CA February 19, 2013

Dennis Jones, President

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Point 1

California needs a better educated Population/workforce

in order to be globally competitive

– California lags many countries and other states – It is losing ground – 3.5 million more graduates than current production levels will yield

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Comparing California with Nations and Other States in the Percentage

f Young Adult Degree Attainment

(Ages 25-34)

U.S. States % OECD Country Korea (65.0) 60 58 56 Japan, Canada Massachusetts 54 North Dakota 52 Minnesota  New York 50 New Jersey 48 Ireland New Hampshire Norway Connecticut  Iowa 46 New Zealand, United Kingdom Virginia  Illinois  Maryland  South Dakota Pennsylvania  Nebraska  Colorado  Vermont 44 Australia, Luxembourg, Israel, Belgium Rhode Island  Kansas France Montana  Wisconsin 42 UNITED STATES, Sweden  Washington Netherlands, Switzerland Missouri  Hawaii 40 Wyoming Maine  Delaware  Utah Finland, Spain, Chile Ohio  California  Oregon 38 Estonia, Denmark Michigan  North Carolina Poland Indiana  Florida  South Carolina 36 Iceland Georgia Alaska  Kentucky  Tennessee 34 Arizona Mississippi Texas Alabama  Idaho 32 Louisiana Slovenia, Greece Oklahoma Arkansas  West Virginia 30 Nevada 28 New Mexico 26 Germany, Hungary Portugal 24 Slovak Rep Czech Rep 22 Mexico Austria, Italy 20 Source: 2012 OECD Education at a Glance; 2010 American Community Survey Turkey (17.4)

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Percent of 25-64 Year Olds with College Degrees – Associate and Higher, 2011

50.8 47 46.6 46.4 46.2 45.8 45.4 45.1 45 44.7 44.6 43.3 43.2 41.7 41.6 41.5 41.1 40.7 40.3 40 39.6 39.4 39.2 39 38.9 38.7 38.6 38.2 37.6 37 36.8 36.5 36.4 36.4 36.2 35.8 35.5 34.5 34.4 34.2 33.9 33.8 33 32.1 31.9 30.8 30.3 30 28.2 27.9 27.8

10 20 30 40 50 60

Massachusetts Colorado Minnesota Connecticut Vermont New Hampshire Maryland New Jersey Virginia North Dakota New York Washington Rhode Island Illinois Hawaii Nebraska Iowa Kansas Utah Maine Wisconsin South Dakota Montana Oregon California Nation Pennsylvania North Carolina Delaware Florida Michigan Idaho Georgia Missouri Wyoming Arizona Ohio Texas Alaska South Carolina New Mexico Indiana Oklahoma Tennessee Alabama Kentucky Mississippi Nevada Arkansas Louisiana West Virginia

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey

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Difference in College Attainment between Young Adults (25-34) and Older Adults (45-64), 2011

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11.1 9.7 9.3 9.2 8.9 8.4 7.2 7.2 6.6 6.4 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2

2 4 6 8 10 12 Iowa North Dakota South Dakota Pennsylvania New York Minnesota Illinois Massachusetts Missouri West Virginia Indiana Ohio Kentucky Louisiana Wisconsin Nebraska Virginia New Jersey Kansas Arkansas Montana Tennessee Alabama Nation Michigan Mississippi North Carolina Vermont Maryland South Carolina Wyoming Georgia Delaware Florida Oklahoma Connecticut Utah New Hampshire Maine Rhode Island Texas Oregon California Washington Colorado Idaho Arizona Alaska Hawaii Nevada New Mexico

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey

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Percentage of Jobs in 2018 that Will Require a Postsecondary Education, by State

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70 70 68 67 67 66 66 66 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 62 62 62 62 62 62 61 61 61 61 61 59 59 59 59 59 58 58 57 57 57 56 56 55 55 54 54 54 54 52 51 49

45 50 55 60 65 70 75

ND MN MA CO WA NE UT MD HI CT IL KS VA NH NJ OR NY AK MI WY MT VT IA SD WI ID RI CA AZ NC ME FL MO DE GA NM OH PA OK TX SC AL IN NV TN MS KY AR LA WV

National Average = 63%

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018; June 2010

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Change in Jobs by Education Level: 2008 and 2018

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California’s Rank in Jobs Forecasted for 2018, by Education Level

Education Level 2018 Jobs Rank High School Dropouts 3,163,000 2 High School Graduates 4,198,000 50 Some college, no degree 1,582,000 39 Associate’s degree 4,042,000 33 Bachelor’s degree 3,937,000 21 Graduate degree 1,961,000 15 Education Level 2008 Jobs 2018 Jobs Difference High School Dropouts 2,914,000 3,163,000 249,000 High School Graduates 3,833,000 4,198,000 365,000 Postsecondary 10,195,000 11,522,000 1,327,000

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018; June 2010

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Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

California Personal Income per Capita as a Percent of the U.S. Average (1980 to 2010)

118.2 114.6 110.5 105.3 110.2 107.2 106.2

80 90 100 110 120 130

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

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Point 2

There are substantial inequities in education attainment

– By race/ethnicity – By region within the state – Becoming globally competitive will require removing inequities

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey

Difference in College Attainment Between Whites and Minorities (Blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans) (2008-10)

35.1 34.5 33.7 32.1 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 27.6 26.8 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.3 24.0 23.2 23.1 22.6 22.3 22.3 22.2 21.7 21.5 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.0 19.5 19.3 16.9 16.8 16.3 15.7 15.5 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.8 13.5 13.4 13.0 12.0 8.8 8.5 8.3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Colorado Nebraska California Connecticut Minnesota Rhode Island New Jersey Illinois New York South Dakota Massachusetts Iowa Utah Idaho Wisconsin Kansas Washington Arizona Texas Oregon New Mexico Nation Pennsylvania Delaware Virginia North Carolina Maryland Hawaii Alaska Nevada North Dakota South Carolina Michigan Montana Wyoming Louisiana Mississippi Georgia Indiana Ohio New Hampshire Oklahoma Alabama Missouri Arkansas Tennessee Florida Kentucky Maine West Virginia Vermont

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Educational Attainment of Whites and Minorities (Black, Hispanics, Native Americans) Aged 25-44, 2008-2010

California

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File.

4.9 17.4 25.5 8.6 29.5 14.1 34.3 26.0 21.2 5.9 9.3 3.3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Less Than High School High School Graduate or GED Some College, No Degree Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Whites Minorities

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SLIDE 12

Change in Population Age 25-44 By Race/Ethnicity, 2005-2025

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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…2,689,700 …1,044,516

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey

Percent of Adults Aged 25 to 64 with College Degrees – Associate and Higher – by County (2009)

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Point 3

California relies heavily on in-migration of talent to meet

workforce needs

– Especially true in regard to technical workers

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Percent of Residents Aged 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree

r Higher Born In-State, 2010

66.3 66.1 63.3 62.3 61.0 61.0 61.0 60.7 60.0 57.0 54.7 54.4 54.0 53.6 53.5 53.3 52.9 52.9 50.9 50.1 47.7 47.1 46.4 45.7 43.7 43.0 42.8 42.5 41.9 40.7 40.4 40.0 37.9 37.7 37.7 32.6 30.8 30.4 29.7 29.5 29.2 26.9 25.1 24.8 24.3 24.0 23.0 19.2 16.6 15.6 9.1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Louisiana Michigan Ohio Mississippi Pennsylvania West Virginia Wisconsin Iowa North Dakota Nebraska Indiana Alabama Kentucky New York Illinois Minnesota Missouri South Dakota Arkansas Oklahoma Massachusetts Utah Rhode Island Kansas Texas Montana Nation Maine Tennessee Connecticut Hawaii South Carolina New Jersey California North Carolina Idaho Georgia Washington Oregon New Mexico Wyoming Delaware Vermont Maryland Virginia New Hampshire Colorado Florida Arizona Alaska Nevada

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File. slide 15

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Percent of Residents Aged 25-64 with an Associates Degree

r Higher Born In-State, 2010

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69.1 67.3 66.2 64.6 64.1 64.1 63.5 62.2 61.3 59.2 57.5 57.4 57.3 57.2 56.3 56.3 54.3 54.1 52.3 51.0 50.9 49.2 49.1 48.5 47.7 45.4 45.3 43.7 43.2 43.2 42.9 42.8 41.7 40.2 39.2 34.6 33.4 33.3 32.5 32.3 32.1 30.9 28.4 26.9 26.8 26.8 24.9 20.5 18.8 16.5 9.1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Michigan Louisiana Ohio Wisconsin Iowa Pennsylvania Mississippi West Virginia North Dakota Nebraska Indiana Kentucky Alabama Minnesota New York Illinois Missouri South Dakota Arkansas Massachusetts Oklahoma Utah Rhode Island Maine Kansas Texas Nation Montana Connecticut Tennessee South Carolina Hawaii North Carolina California New Jersey Idaho New Mexico Washington Georgia Wyoming Oregon Vermont Delaware Maryland Virginia New Hampshire Colorado Florida Arizona Alaska Nevada

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File.

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Average Annual Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with College Degrees Employed in High Tech Occupations, 2008-10

11.8 11.3 10.9 10.4 9.9 9.7 9.3 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.8 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Virginia Maryland Washington Colorado New Hampshire California Massachusetts Texas New Jersey Arizona Michigan Minnesota Utah New Mexico Oregon Connecticut Nation Delaware Georgia Alabama Idaho Illinois Kansas Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin Indiana District of Columbia Missouri Rhode Island North Carolina Alaska Vermont South Carolina Iowa Tennessee Oklahoma Florida New York Nebraska Kentucky Wyoming Nevada Arkansas Louisiana Hawaii West Virginia Montana South Dakota North Dakota Maine Mississippi

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey Three-Year Public Use Microdata Sample File. NCES, IPEDS 2009-10 Completions File; c2010_a Final Release Data File.

Note: Awards for Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, and West Virginia reduced to reflect private for-profit production primarily serving out-of-state students online.

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Undergraduate STEM Credentials Awarded per 1,000 STEM Employees, 2008-10

128.9 103.1 94.1 91.3 90.6 88.5 86.2 82.2 80.6 79.6 78.0 75.5 73.0 72.1 68.1 67.2 66.9 66.1 65.3 65.0 64.8 63.3 62.8 62.8 62.2 60.6 59.5 57.3 54.4 54.0 53.4 52.9 52.5 51.2 50.7 49.9 49.4 48.9 45.9 43.5 42.2 41.5 41.2 41.2 40.1 40.0 39.4 38.5 37.9 32.3 31.5 28.9 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 North Dakota South Dakota Louisiana West Virginia Rhode Island Mississippi Kentucky Arkansas Indiana Montana Vermont Pennsylvania Iowa Nebraska Wyoming Michigan Oklahoma Maine Ohio Missouri New York Utah Wisconsin Alabama District of Columbia North Carolina South Carolina Idaho Nation Kansas Georgia Florida Tennessee Illinois Massachusetts Minnesota Texas Arizona Washington New Mexico California Nevada Delaware Oregon Colorado Alaska Hawaii Maryland Virginia Connecticut New Hampshire New Jersey

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey Three-Year Public Use Microdata Sample File. NCES, IPEDS 2009-10 Completions File; c2010_a Final Release Data File.

Note: Awards for Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, and West Virginia reduced to reflect private for-profit production primarily serving out-of-state students online.

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SLIDE 19

Point 4

Approaches to Higher Education policy is best

approached from a regional perspective

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California Regional Map

Santa Cruz San Benito Merced Sonoma Yolo Colusa Lake Yuba Nevada Placer Mendocino Del Norte Humboldt Madera Tuolumne Mono Monterey Kings Calaveras Los Angeles Ventura San Diego Lassen Alameda Alpine Amador Butte Contra Costa El Dorado Fresno Glenn Imperial Inyo Kern Marin Mariposa Modoc Napa Orange Plumas Riverside Sacramento San Bernardino San Francisco San Joaquin San Luis Obispo San Mateo Santa Barbara Santa Clara Shasta Sierra Siskiyou Solano Stanislaus Sutter Tehama Trinity Tulare

Northern California Upper Sacramento Valley Sacramento Tahoe Central Sierra San Joaquin Valley Bay Area Central Coast Inland Empire San Diego Imperial Los Angeles Orange

SLIDE 21

Percent of the Population with an Associate Degree or Higher (2006-08)

10 20 30 40 50 60 San Joaquin Valley Central Sierra Inland Empire Northern California Upper Sacramento Valley Central Coast Los Angeles San Diego/Imperial Orange County Sacramento/Tahoe Bay Area

Source: US Census Bureau, 2006-08 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Samples

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College Attainment Gap between White and Minority 25 to 44 Year Olds (2006-08)

Source: US Census Bureau, 2006-08 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Samples

(Minority - Blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans)

15.6 16.2 18.2 19.3 20.0 23.6 31.5 32.5 35.0 40.4 40.6 41.0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Central Sierra Northern California Inland Empire Upper Sacramento Valley San Joaquin Valley Sacramento Tahoe San Diego Imperial Statewide Central Coast Los Angeles Orange County Bay Area

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Young Adults in Need of Education:

Number of 18 to 24 Year Olds (Not Enrolled in Education) without a College Degree (2008-09)

Source: US Census Bureau, 2006-08 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Samples

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 Central Sierra Upper Sacramento Valley Northern California Central Coast Sacramento Tahoe Orange County San Diego Imperial Bay Area San Joaquin Valley Inland Empire Los Angeles

Less Than High School High School Graduate Some College, No Degree

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Percent of High School Graduates Going Directly to College (2006-08)

Source: US Census Bureau, 2006-08 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Samples

39.2 39.4 43.7 44.2 51.7 52.4 53.4 54.7 56.6 56.8 59.1 59.9 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 San Joaquin Valley Inland Empire Northern California Upper Sacramento Valley Statewide Bay Area Central Sierra San Diego Imperial Los Angeles Sacramento Tahoe Central Coast Orange County

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Attendance Patterns of First-Time College Students Directly Out

f High School by Region (2006-08)

48.3 59.4 60.4 60.7 62.5 65.4 65.8 70.1 71.7 72.0 74.3 27.3 26.9 30.1 23.9 25.3 20.3 22.6 23.2 20.4 17.0 18.6 24.4 13.7 9.4 15.4 12.2 14.4 11.7 6.7 7.9 11.0 7.1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Bay Area Inland Empire San Joaquin Valley Los Angeles San Diego Imperial Orange County Sacramento Tahoe Upper Sacramento Valley Northern California Central Coast Central Sierra

Community Colleges California State Universities Universities of California

Source: US Census Bureau, 2006-08 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Samples

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Point 5

Improvement in degree production (and productivity) of

community colleges is the key to closing the education attainment gap in California

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Undergraduate Awards (One Year and More) per 100 FTE Undergraduates – Public Research, 2009-10

26.9 25.7 25.6 25.2 24.7 23.9 23.4 23.3 22.7 22.5 22.5 22.3 22.2 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.4 21.3 21.1 21.0 21.0 20.9 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.2 20.2 19.8 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.2 15.8 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Connecticut Florida Washington California Illinois Pennsylvania Oklahoma Utah Missouri New Hampshire Texas New York Maryland Arizona Virginia United States Hawaii Vermont Michigan Massachusetts Georgia South Carolina Oregon Indiana Maine Iowa Kansas Wisconsin Colorado Ohio Delaware Mississippi Minnesota North Carolina Wyoming New Jersey Rhode Island Kentucky Nebraska Alabama South Dakota Montana Nevada Tennessee Louisiana West Virginia Arkansas New Mexico Idaho North Dakota Alaska

Sources: NCES, IPEDS Completions and Enrollment Surveys

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Undergraduate Awards (One Year and More) per 100 FTE Undergraduates – Public Bachelor’s & Masters, 2009-10

26.3 24.3 24.0 23.3 22.9 22.8 22.2 22.0 21.9 21.3 21.1 21.0 20.9 20.7 20.6 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.0 18.8 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.6 18.4 18.0 18.0 17.6 16.9 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.6 16.3 16.0 15.7 15.4 15.0 14.9 14.3 13.3 9.8

5 10 15 20 25 30

Vermont Washington New Jersey California Kansas Illinois Iowa Maryland Texas Florida North Dakota New York New Hampshire Utah Connecticut Michigan United States Oregon Virginia Hawaii Missouri North Carolina Maine Minnesota Wisconsin Massachusetts Rhode Island Alabama South Carolina Kentucky Oklahoma Nebraska Pennsylvania Arkansas Idaho Mississippi Montana Colorado Tennessee West Virginia Louisiana Indiana Georgia New Mexico South Dakota Alaska Delaware Ohio Nevada

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Undergraduate Awards (One Year and More) per 100 FTE Undergraduates – Public Two-Year, 2009-10

29.0 27.2 21.5 20.4 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.3 18.9 18.8 17.9 17.5 17.3 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.6 16.6 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.2 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.3 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.1 11.3 11.3 10.5 9.8 7.6

5 10 15 20 25 30 North Dakota South Dakota Arkansas Wisconsin Maine Minnesota Florida Iowa New Hampshire Louisiana Montana Utah Wyoming Kansas Idaho Arizona Washington Mississippi Hawaii Kentucky Vermont New York Michigan Oklahoma Massachusetts West Virginia Maryland Delaware New Jersey Missouri Nebraska United States Virginia New Mexico Pennsylvania Oregon Georgia Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Alabama Indiana Illinois Colorado Ohio North Carolina South Carolina Connecticut California Nevada Alaska

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Closing the Education Attainment Gap in California

Additional degrees to reach 60% by 2025 3,500,000 Improving High School Graduation Rates to National Best 355,000 College-going rate to National Best 230,000 Improving College Completion of Public & Private 4-year 275,000 Remaining Gap 2,640,000 Improving Completion at Community Colleges to the National Best 2,535,000

*Calculations assume enrollments of first-time students are distributed in a constant manner Recent HS Grads Age 20-39 Public Research 15% Public Baccalaureates & Masters 18 .0 Private 12 16 Community Colleges 55 82

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