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C: Context The influence of factors taken into account The - - PDF document

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Dec 2010 Statistical Literacy: Confounding Fall 2010 1 Fall 2010 2 Statistical Literacy: Statistical Literacy Confounding Statistical literacy is the ability to read and MILO SCHIELD, interpret summary statistics in everyday life.

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Statistical Literacy: Confounding Dec 2010 2010-Schield-UST-Confounding-Slides.pdf 1

Fall 2010 1

MILO SCHIELD,

Augsburg College

Director, W. M. Keck Statistical Literacy Project Vice President, National Numeracy Network

University of St. Thomas. December 2010 Slides at www.StatLit.org/pdf/ 2010-Schield-UST-Confounding-Slides.pdf

Statistical Literacy: Confounding

Fall 2010 2

Statistical Literacy

Statistical literacy is the ability to read and interpret summary statistics in everyday life. Statistical Literacy studies (1) the relation between statistical associations and causation, and (2) the kinds of influence on a statistic or statistical association. [Take CARE]

Fall 2010 3

Take CARE

C: Context The influence of factors taken into account

  • by comparisons of counts, averages, ratios and

comparisons of averages and ratios;

  • by epidemiological models (cf., deaths attributable to
  • besity);
  • by regression models; and
  • by the study design (cf., controlled vs. uncontrolled;

longitudinal vs. cross-sectional; experiment vs.

  • bservational study) or by selection in tables and graphs.

The influence of related factors (confounders) not taken into account in the study and not blocked by the study design.

Fall 2010 4

Take CARE

C: Context

The influence of related factors (confounders) that were not taken into account in the study and that were not blocked by the study design. Two continuous measures

Fall 2010 5

Association vs. Causation

.

SEASON WINS vs. TOTAL PAYROLL

US Major League Baseball 52 62 72 82 92 102 10 20 30 40 50 60 Total Payroll ($Millions) 1995 Season Wins Yankees BlueJays Indians Twins Marlins Rangers Mets Padres Braves Orioles Red Sox Reds Expos Pirates Tigers

Fall 2010 6

Adjusting for Land Size

House Prices (Average Acres = 1.6)

$50,000 $150,000 $250,000 $350,000 $450,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 Land Size (Acres)

2004AssessMTB

Best-Fit Line

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Statistical Literacy: Confounding Dec 2010 2010-Schield-UST-Confounding-Slides.pdf 2

Fall 2010 7

Take CARE

C: Context

The influence of related factors (confounders) that were not taken into account in the study and that were not blocked by the study design. Two-group averages

Fall 2010 8

Adjusting for Land Size

Income: US Families by Race & Structure

$10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Percentage who are headed by Married Couple

Mean Income Black Families 78% White Families 82% 48% Population

Fall 2010 9

Take CARE

C: Context

The influence of related factors (confounders) that were not taken into account in the study and that were not blocked by the study design. Two-group rates or percentages

Fall 2010 10

Adjusting for Land Size

Auto Deaths and Airbag Presence

Confounded by Seatbelt Use

15 43 70 98 125 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Percentage who wear Seatbelts

Death Rate per 10,00 Accidents .. None All Airbag No Airbag Airbag Standardized

Fall 2010 11

Adjusting for Land Size

Subscription Renewal Rates by Month

Confounded by Change in Subscription Mix

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Percentage of Renewals which are Agent Renewal Rate January Standardize February 10% 40% 46%

Fall 2010 12

Conclusion

Statistical literacy is an art as well as a science. Seeing plausible confounders as a major influence on statistics is a skill that requires training.

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Fall 2010

1

MILO SCHIELD,

Augsburg College

Director, W. M. Keck Statistical Literacy Project Vice President, National Numeracy Network

University of St. Thomas. December 2010 Slides at www.StatLit.org/pdf/ 2010-Schield-UST-Confounding-Slides.pdf

Statistical Literacy: Confounding

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Fall 2010

2

Statistical Literacy

Statistical literacy is the ability to read and interpret summary statistics in everyday life. Statistical Literacy studies (1) the relation between statistical associations and causation, and (2) the kinds of influence on a statistic or statistical association. [Take CARE]

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Fall 2010

3

Take CARE

C: Context The influence of factors taken into account

  • by comparisons of counts, averages, ratios and

comparisons of averages and ratios;

  • by epidemiological models (cf., deaths attributable to
  • besity);
  • by regression models; and
  • by the study design (cf., controlled vs. uncontrolled;

longitudinal vs. cross-sectional; experiment vs.

  • bservational study) or by selection in tables and graphs.

The influence of related factors (confounders) not taken into account in the study and not blocked by the study design.

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Fall 2010

4

Take CARE

C: Context

The influence of related factors (confounders) that were not taken into account in the study and that were not blocked by the study design. Two continuous measures

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Fall 2010

5

Association vs. Causation

.

SEASON WINS vs. TOTAL PAYROLL

US Major League Baseball 52 62 72 82 92 102 10 20 30 40 50 60 Total Payroll ($Millions) 1995 Season Wins Yankees BlueJays Indians Twins Marlins Rangers Mets Padres Brav es Orioles Red Sox Reds Expos Pirates Tigers

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Fall 2010

6

Adjusting for Land Size

House Prices (Average Acres = 1.6)

$50,000 $150,000 $250,000 $350,000 $450,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 Land Size (Acres)

2004AssessMTB

Best-Fit Line

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Fall 2010

7

Take CARE

C: Context

The influence of related factors (confounders) that were not taken into account in the study and that were not blocked by the study design. Two-group averages

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Fall 2010

8

Adjusting for Land Size

Income: US Families by Race & Structure

$10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Percentage who are headed by Married Couple

Mean Income

Black Families 78% White Families 82% 48% Population

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Fall 2010

9

Take CARE

C: Context

The influence of related factors (confounders) that were not taken into account in the study and that were not blocked by the study design. Two-group rates or percentages

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Fall 2010

10

Adjusting for Land Size

Auto Deaths and Airbag Presence

Confounded by Seatbelt Use

15 43 70 98 125 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Percentage who wear Seatbelts

Death Rate per 10,00 Accidents ..

None All Airbag No Airbag Airbag Standardized

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Fall 2010

11

Adjusting for Land Size

Subscription Renewal Rates by Month

Confounded by Change in Subscription Mix

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Percentage of Renewals which are Agent

Renewal Rate

January Standardize February 10% 40% 46%

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Fall 2010

12

Conclusion

Statistical literacy is an art as well as a science. Seeing plausible confounders as a major influence on statistics is a skill that requires training.