Bushfires in Australia Summary of Presentation Dr Dr Liz Ha z - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Bushfires in Australia Summary of Presentation Dr Dr Liz Ha z Hanna na National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health: Australian National University April 2014 If Australia was in Northern Hemisphere 2 Liz Hanna NCEPH ANU

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Bushfires in

Australia

Summary of Presentation

Dr Dr Liz Ha z Hanna na

National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health: Australian National University

April 2014

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

If Australia was in Northern Hemisphere

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

40 year drying trend

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Australia’s population & Agricultural regions Victoria

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

Av Annual bushfires in Victoria

  • 149 fires caused by lightning
  • 145 fires deliberately lit
  • 59 fires started as a result of campfires
  • 53,096 hectares burnt each year by fire caused

by lightning strikes:

  • 15,649 hectares burnt each year by

deliberately lit fires:

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

Australian Bushfire Deaths 1939-2009

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

Major Victorian Fires: 1851-2007

6 February 1851 (Black Thursday) Deaths: 15 People rendered homeless: 100 Buildings: 1,300 Livestock: 1 million sheep, thousands of cattle Area burnt: 5 million hectares (approx. 25%) of Victoria 13–20 January 1939 (Black Friday) Deaths: 71 People rendered homeless: 3,000 Buildings: 1,300 (including 69 sawmills) Livestock: 2,500 Area burnt: 1.5 – 2.0 million hectares 16–18 February 1983 (Ash Wednesday) Deaths: 47 People rendered homeless: 9,000 Buildings: 2,500 Livestock: 32,750 (including 18,000 sheep and 7,000 cattle) Fencing: 5,900 kilometres Area burnt: 210,000 hectares Estimated damage: $190 million 8 January – 7 March 2003 Deaths: 1 Buildings: 41 houses Fencing: 3,000 kilometres Livestock: 110,000 Area burnt: 1.3 million hectares 1 December 2006 – 7 February 2007 Deaths: 1 Buildings: 51 houses Livestock: 1,741 Area burnt: more than 1.2 million hectares

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

Forest Fire Danger Index FFDI

  • FFDI = 1.2753´ exp(0.987logDF + 0.0338T +

0.0234V - 0.0345RH), where

  • DF is the drought factor,
  • T the ambient air temperature in Celsius,
  • V the wind speed in km/h, and
  • RH the relative humidity expressed in percent

Fire Danger Rating (FDR) system

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

18th March 2008

Dr Liz Hanna

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Victorian rainfall deficiencies: March 2005 – Feb 2008

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

Fire situation January 2009

  • CFA attended 39,987 incidents & 16,103 fires
  • DSE attended 825 bushfires
  • Non extinguished fires
  • New years Day – 7
  • January 14th = 29
  • January 25th = 58
  • February 7 = 128
  • Feb 7 = 632 incidents, 199 grass / scrub Fires
  • DSE 117 fires

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

Elements for a fire – at Extreme

  • Australia has warmed 1.5-2oC
  • 1999–2009 = warmest in the 154 years of records
  • January = Lowest rainfall on record, & worst heatwave
  • Melbourne 3 consecutive days over 43°C = a record
  • The four basic elements of fire weather:
  • air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and

direction, and atmospheric stability

  • Were all at record levels Fe

February bruary 7th

th 200

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  • Temp 40oC by 11 am RH < 10%
  • By 12:30 T = 46.3oC with Wind gusts 90 km/hr
  • Spot fires 13 - 35 k’s ahead of fire front

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

Feb 7th 2009 Vic Fire Impacts

Deaths = 173 Injuries = 800 people treated A&E, > 130 people admitted Homes & dwellings were destroyed = thousands ( >2K) Land burnt = 400,000 hectares, Stock losses = 4,500 sheep, 4,000 cattle and 200 horses Communities across Victoria directly affected > 78 Townships devastated - Marysville, Kinglake, Kinglake West, Narbethong, Flowerdale & Strathewen Fire-fighters – Country Fire Authority Volunteers = 19,000 Incident management & support Media – national & international

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

New category of Fire Risk added after 2009 Conditions

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

Changes in high & extreme fire weather

(No. of days/yr) 2020 & 2050, relative to 1990

Lucas C, et al. 2007 Bushfire weather in southeast Australia: Recent Trends and Projected Climate Change Impacts.

Increase in catastrophic fire danger days – return period in some areas < 3 years

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

Bushfires affected communities

  • Psychological responses:
  • Pre, during & post event . . . . lingering effects
  • Grief, loss, solastalgia,
  • Dislocation, uncertainty “living in limbo”
  • Children . . . .
  • Indirectly through loss of
  • livelihood (agricultural, businesses, services),
  • Infrastructure (bridges, power, communications)
  • food yields, prices and nutritional quality

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Liz Hanna – NCEPH ANU

Broader Impacts

  • Health sector
  • Health care services – direct care
  • Community care & welfare agencies
  • Environmental health
  • Government
  • Infrastructure
  • Costs - $593 million fire suppression effort
  • Costs - repair damage (conservative $4.3 billion)
  • Water storage contamination
  • Downstream impacts
  • Tourism . . . Carbon release . . 1 million animals

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