BTSGIF PRESENTATION
SET Opportunity Day 7 June 2019
BTSGIF PRESENTATION SET Opportunity Day 7 June 2019 BTSGIF At a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
BTSGIF PRESENTATION SET Opportunity Day 7 June 2019 BTSGIF At a Glance Invest in 23.5km of BTS Core Network, 10.5 years concession remaining Fund summary Initial asset: Core BTS SkyTrain system (until 2029) Fund Name BTS Rail Mass Transit
SET Opportunity Day 7 June 2019
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Invest in 23.5km of BTS Core Network, 10.5 years concession remaining
Fund Name BTS Rail Mass Transit Growth Infrastructure Fund (“BTSGIF”) Sponsors BTS Group Holdings PCL (“BTSG”) and Bangkok Mass Transit System PCL (“BTSC”) Fund Management Company BBL Asset Management Co., Ltd. (“BBLAM”) Fund Supervisor Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) Pcl. (“SCBT”) Initial Asset
less related operating cost and CAPEX) from the Core BTS SkyTrain system (23.5km)
(approximately 10.5 years remaining)
THB 61,000mn (Discount rate 9.0%)
(Discount rate 8.8%)(1) Total Investment Units 5,788mn investment units Par Value THB 10.8 per investment unit (THB 10.611 per investment unit as of Jun 2017) Registered Capital THB 62,510.4mn, THB 61,416.5mn as of Jun 2017 Lock-up Arrangement Lock-up of BTSG’s 33.3% holding of BTSGIF units for 10 years from FY 13/14 to FY 22/23
(1) Discount cash flow without adjusting Mid-Year ConversionDARK GREEN MO CHIT – ON NUT 17.0km LIGHT GREEN NATIONAL STADIUM
6.5km
ridership fare (and bear related expenses and capital expenditure)
trains (except land acquisition)
BTSGIF : At a Glance
Fund summary Initial asset: Core BTS SkyTrain system (until 2029)
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BTSGIF : At a Glance
THB 62.5bn
Raised from IPO Concession expiry in 2029
≈10.5 years remaining
Annual passengers in core network (FY 18/19)
≈ 241mn trips (744,475 trips / Weekday ) 9.2% CAGR
(18 yrs since inception)
(FY 18/19)
66.1% EBITDA margin
Implied annual dividend yield** (FY 18/19)
5.8% Yield
BTSGIF is the first Infrastructure Fund in Thailand Invest in the 23.5km of BTS Core Network with 10.5 years concession remaining Position to benefit from passenger growth, fare increase and
Seek for new opportunities from mass transit infrastructure projects with strong cash flow potential
Stock code BTSGIF Outstanding shares (mn) 5,788 Market capitalisation (THB mn)* 60,195.2 Market capitalisation (USD mn)* 1,892.9 Closing price* 10.40
BTSGIF Stock information
*as of 30 May 2019
** Based on par value (THB) 10.611
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FY 18/19 Ridership was 241mn trips and average fare was THB 29.0 per trip
BTSGIF : BTSGIF Core Ridership and Fare
215 219 233 238 241 241 26.4 26.9 27.5 27.9 28.3 29.0 22.5 23.5 24.5 25.5 26.5 27.5 28.5 29.5 190 192 194 196 198 200 202 204 206 208 210 212 214 216 218 220 222 224 226 228 230 232 234 236 238 240 242 244 246 248 250 252 254 256 258 260 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 Core BTS SkyTrain Ridership (mn trips) Fare (THB per trip) CAGR Ridership (FY 18/19 – FY 29/30)
3.9%
CAGR Fare (FY 18/19 – FY 29/30)
3.1%
CAGR FB Revenue (FY 18/19 – FY 29/30)
7.2%
CAGR Net FB Revenue (FY 18/19 – FY 29/30)
9.1%
CAGR since IPO (2013/14) ds Ridership +2.3% Farebox Revenue +4.2% CAGR since Inception (2000/01) Ridership +8.2% Farebox Revenue +9.2%
3,707 3,890 4,392 4,499 4,622 4,525 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 3,353 3,520 4,021 4,483 4,622 4,525 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 3,774 3,957 4,475 4,576 4,696 4,603 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 5,470 5,874 6,397 6,636 6,821 6,963 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19
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Key financial highlights
THB mn THB mn THB mn THB mn
FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 **Total distribution available to unitholders includes capital reduction (paid from excess cash of fund)
+7.4% YoY +4.9% YoY +5.0% YoY +4.9% YoY
BTSGIF : BTSGIF Performance Summary
Revenue (gross farebox revenue) Income from investment in NRTA Net investment income* Total distribution available to unitholders**
FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 to 31 March 2014
*Income from investment in NRTA less fund expenses
+8.9% YoY +13.1% YoY +14.2% YoY +12.9% YoY +3.7% YoY +11.5% YoY +2.4% YoY +2.2% YoY +2.6% YoY +2.8% YoY +3.1% YoY +2.7% YoY +2.1% YoY
YoY
YoY
YoY
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BTSGIF : 4Q 18/19 Income Statement Unit (THB mn) 4Q 18/19 4Q 17/18 % YoY 3Q 18/19 % QoQ Income from investment in NRTA (see details in slide 6) 987.1 1,155.8 (14.6)% 1,214.4 (18.7)% Interest income 5.0 3.5 41.3% 4.5 11.9% Total Income 992.1 1,159.3 (14.4)% 1,218.9 (18.6)% Fund management fee and expenses 21.6 19.2 12.7% 20.7 4.6% Other expenses (9.4) (10.7) 12.5% 1.3 (846.3)% Total Expenses 12.2 8.5 44.7% 22.0 (44.1)% Net Investment Income 979.9 1,150.8 (14.9)% 1,196.9 (18.1)% Total Unrealised Gain (Loss) on Investments (5,300.1) 0.1 N/A (999.9) (430.1)% Changes in Net Assets resulting from Operations (4,320.2) 1,150.9 (475.4)% 197.0 (2,292.6) % Net Investment Income Margin (%) 98.8% 99.3% 98.2% THB/Unit THB/Unit THB/Unit Net income available to the unitholders (to be paid as dividend) (4,320.2) (0.746) 1,150.8 0.198 (475.4)% 197.0 0.034 (2,292.6)% Add back excess liquidity from unrealised loss
5,300.1 0.915
0.172 (430.1)% Total distribution available to unitholders 979.9 0.169 1,150.8 0.198 (14.9)% 1,196.9 0.206 (18.1)% In 4Q 18/19, BTSGIF recognised an unrealised loss on investment of THB 5,300.1mn (non-cash expense) primarily from the devaluation in the fair value of its investment in NRTA of THB 5,300.0mn, following the Fund’s reappraisal (which must be done every 3 years). The new fair value of investment in NRTA, hence, decreased to THB 59,100mn from THB 64,400mn in the previous quarter. The appraisal value decreased from the previous report due to a decrease in projected net farebox revenue. Projected farebox revenue decreases from various factors, including i) lower economic growth rate and inflation rate ii) an integrated fare structure of other train lines (one-time boarding fee) iii) a delay in the implementation of the dual track station and temporary closure for the improvement of Saphan Taksin station iv) moving the van terminal at Victory Monument and v) delay of the opening of various train lines.
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BTSGIF : FY 18/19 Income Statement Unit (THB mn) FY 18/19 FY 17/18 % YoY Income from investment in NRTA (see details in slide 7) 4,603.0 4,696.3
(2.0)%
Interest income 17.7 16.1
9.4%
Total Income 4,620.7 4,712.4
(1.9)%
Fund management fee and expenses 84.8 81.0
4.7%
Other expenses 10.5 9.9
5.8%
Total Expenses 95.3 90.9
4.8%
Net Investment Income 4,525.4 4,621.5
(2.1)%
Total Unrealised Gain (Loss) on Investments (6,300.0) (399.9)
(1,475.2)%
Increase in Net Assets resulting from Operations (1,774.6) 4,221.6
(142.0)%
Net Investment Income Margin (%) 97.9% 98.1% THB/Unit THB/Unit Net income available to the unitholders (to be paid as dividend) (1,774.6) (0.306) 4,221.6 0.729
(142.0)%
Add back excess liquidity from unrealised loss
6,300.0 1.088 399.9 0.069
1,475.2%
Total distribution available to unitholders 4,525.4 0.781 4,621.5 0.798
(2.1)%
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Unit (THB mn) 4Q 18/19 4Q 17/18 Change (YoY) % YoY 3Q 18/19 Change (QoQ) % QoQ Farebox revenues 1,768.8 1,731.8 37.0 2.1% 1,791.8 (23.0) (1.3)% Total operating and maintenance costs 781.7 576.0 205.7 35.7% 577.4 204.3 35.4% Employees expenses 152.3 165.5 (13.2) (8.0)% 246.8 (94.5) (38.3)% Maintenance costs 130.8 129.4 1.4 1.1% 112.8 18.0 16.0% Utilities expenses 94.2 93.7 0.5 0.6% 94.9 (0.7) (0.7)% Property insurance premium 21.4 21.8 (0.4) (1.8)% 0.1 21.3 N/A Selling expenses 11.6 22.9 (11.3) (49.4)% 20.1 (8.5) (42.3)% Administrative and other expenses 32.2 33.7 (1.5) (4.4)% 32.9 (0.7) (2.3)% Capital expenditures 339.2 109.0 230.2 211.0% 69.8 269.3 385.7% Total income from investment in NRTA 987.1 1,155.8 (168.7) (14.6)% 1,214.4 (227.3) (18.7)% Income from investment in NRTA margin (%) 55.8% 66.7% 67.8%
FAREBOX REVENUE
Farebox revenue was THB 1,768.8mn, grew by 2.1% YoY but down by 1.3% QoQ. YoY increase largely came from i) ridership growth by 1.5% YoY to 61.1 mn trips and ii) increase in average fare by 0.6% YoY to THB 29.0 per trip QoQ decrease came from i) ridership drop by 0.8% QoQ and ii) decrease in average fare by 0.4% QoQ
O&M COSTS
O&M costs were THB 781.7mn, increasing 35.7% YoY and 35.4% QoQ. YoY and QoQ increases were principally from an increased CAPEX; the main CAPEX components in 4Q 18/19 were Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) system upgrade of THB 225.4mn, rolling stocks of THB 69.0mn and radio upgrade of THB 29.4mn, compared to rolling stocks
41.5mn and rolling stocks of THB 11.5mn last quarter. QoQ increases in CAPEX was partially offset by lower employee expenses from bonus paid in previous quarter. BTSGIF : 4Q 18/19 Income from investment in NRTA
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BTSGIF : FY 18/19 Income from Investment in NRTA
Unit (THB mn) FY 18/19 FY 17/18 Change (YoY) % YoY Farebox revenues 6,962.5 6,821.3 141.2 2.1% Total operating and maintenance costs 2,359.5 2,125.0 234.5 11.0% Employees expenses 785.5 759.2 26.3 3.5% Maintenance costs 467.6 464.2 3.4 0.7% Utilities expenses 384.2 375.7 8.5 2.3% Property insurance premium 21.5 21.8 (0.3) (1.6)% Selling expenses 77.8 82.2 (4.4) (5.3)% Administrative and other expenses 114.8 101.1 13.7 13.6% Capital expenditures 508.1 320.8 187.3 58.4% Total income from investment in NRTA 4,603.0 4,696.3 (93.3) (2.0)% Income from investment in NRTA margin (%) 66.1% 68.8%
FAREBOX REVENUE O&M COSTS
Farebox revenue was THB 6,962.5mn, increasing 2.1% YoY from i) fare increase by 2.4% YoY to THB 29.0 per trip but being partially
ii) compensation expenses from net free-trip allowance to passengers from train services disruption during June 2018 of THB 18.5mn If excluded the net free-trip allowance, farebox revenue in this period would grow by 2.3% YoY. O&M costs were THB 2,359.5mn, increasing 11.0% YoY mainly from i) higher CAPEX; the main CAPEX components in this year were AFC system upgrade of THB 266.9mn, radio upgrade of THB 100.5mn and rolling stocks of THB 84.5mn, compared to rolling stocks of THB 149.9mn, radio upgrade of THB 66.0mn and AFC system upgrade of 58.4mn last year i) an increase in annual base salary and bonus paid for employees and ii) increase in administrative and other expenses from new Single Journey Tickets (SJT) from changing magnetic cards to thin cards for supporting the new Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) system
60.2 57.1 61.2 61.6 61.1
7.1% 0.6%
0.2%
1.3% 1.5% 4Q 17/18 1Q 18/19 2Q 18/19 3Q 18/19 4Q 18/19 Ridership (mn trips) Ridership Growth (% QoQ) Ridership Growth (% YoY) 28.8 29.0* 28.8 29.1* 29.0 0.4% 0.9%
1.0%
3.3% 3.9% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6% 4Q 17/18 1Q 18/19 2Q 18/19 3Q 18/19 4Q 18/19 Average Fare (THB/trip) Average Fare Growth (% QoQ) Average Fare Growth (% YoY)
4Q 18/19 Ridership:
Southern Green Line Extension (Bearing-Kheha) on 6 Dec 2018.
4Q 18/19 Ridership 61.1mn trips, +1.5% YoY, -0.8% QoQ Average fare (excluding impact of free-trip allowance) THB 29.0/trip, +0.6% YoY, -0.4% QoQ Average fare (including impact of free-trip allowance) THB 29.0/trip, +0.6% YoY, -0.5% QoQ Average weekday ridership 757,480 trips, +1.8% YoY, +0.9% QoQ
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BTSGIF: Core Network Performance
QUARTERLY HISTORICAL AVERAGE FARE & GROWTH QUARTERLY HISTORICAL RIDERSHIP & GROWTH
EXPLANATION
SUMMARY
* Excluding the impact of free-trip allowance to passengers from train services disruption
FY 18/19, excluding the impact of free-trip allowance to passengers from train services disruption
FY 18/19 Ridership: marginally decreased partly due to train services disruption during June 2018 as well as fewer weekdays, more long-weekends than in the previous year and passengers’ sensitivity to the fare increases in the core skytrain network. Average fare: increased largely as a result of a full year effect from the fare increase since Oct 2017 and adjustments to the promotional price for stored-value cards since Apr 2018. If deducting the free-trip allowance, average fare would go up by 2.1% YoY. FY 18/19 Ridership 241.0mn trips,
Average fare (excluding impact of free- trip allowance) THB 29.0/trip, +2.4% YoY Average fare (including impact of free- trip allowance) THB 28.9/trip, +2.1% YoY Average weekday ridership 744,475 trips, +0.1% YoY
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YEARLY HISTORICAL AVERAGE FARE & GROWTH YEARLY HISTORICAL RIDERSHIP & GROWTH
EXPLANATION
SUMMARY
218.7 232.5 238.0 241.2 241.0
1.9% 6.3% 2.4% 1.3%
FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19
Ridership (mn trips) Ridership Growth (%YoY) 26.9 27.5 27.9 28.3 29.0
1.6% 2.4% 1.3% 1.4% 2.4% FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19
Average Fare (THB/trip) Average Fare Growth (%YoY)
BTSGIF: Core Network Performance
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(Unit: THB mn) 31 Mar 2019 31 Dec 2018 31 Mar 2018 Investment in NRTA at cost 59,100.0 61,432.1 64,400.0 61,432.1 65,400.0 61,432.1 Investment in Securities at fair value and Cash at bank 1,173.5 1,022.3 1,216.2 Other Assets 4.9 236.1 64.8 Total Assets 60,278.4 65,658.4 66,681.0 Total Liabilities 159.1 26.5 93.0 Net Asset Value 60,119.3 65,631.9 66,588.0 Capital Received from Unitholders 61,416.5 61,416.5 61,416.5 Retained Earnings (1,297.2) 4,215.4 5,171.5 NAV per Unit (THB) 10.3868 11.3393 11.5045 BTSGIF : Balance Sheet
As of 31 Mar 2019, total assets stood at THB 60,278.4mn. The main components were
59,100.0mn, decreased by THB 5,300.0mn from 31 Dec 2018.
cash at bank of THB 1,173.5mn
Total liabilities stood at THB 159.1mn (primarily from account payable from NRTA of THB 141.4mn) Net Asset Value (NAV) as of 31 Mar 2019 was THB 60,119.3mn, equivalent to THB 10.3868 per unit.
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No. Capital Reduction Period Capital Reduction Payout (THB per unit)
1 17 Apr 2013 – 30 Jun 2014 0.077 2 1 Jul 2014 – 31 Mar 2015 0.048 3 1 Apr 2015 – 31 Mar 2016 0.064 4 1 Jan 2019 – 31 Mar 2019 0.169 Total 0.358
The 4th Capital Reduction
XN Date Book Closing Date 24 Jun 2019 Payment Date 6 Jun 2019 10 Jun 2019
No. Dividend Period Dividend Payout (THB per unit) Accumulated Dividend for the Year (THB per unit)
1-4 17 Apr 2013 – 31 Mar 2014 0.579 0.579 5-8 1 Apr 2014 – 31 Mar 2015 0.606 0.606 9 - 12 1 Apr 2015 – 31 Mar 2016 0.692 0.692 13 - 16 1 Apr 2016 – 31 Mar 2017 0.772 0.772 17 1 Apr 2017 – 30 Jun 2017 0.192 0.798 18 1 Jul 2017 – 30 Sep 2017 0.203 19 1 Oct 2017 – 31 Dec 2017 0.203 20 1 Jan 2018 – 31 Mar 2018 0.200 21 1 Apr 2018 – 30 Jun 2018 0.196 0.611 22 1 Jul 2018 – 30 Sep 2018 0.209 23 1 Sep 2018 – 31 Dec 2018 0.206 Total 4.058
BTSGIF : Historical Distribution
Total distribution of THB 25.6bn or THB 4.416 per unit since IPO
1Adjusted net profit = BTSGIF net profit less unrealised gain from the appraisal of assets and other adjustment items to be in line with the cash-basis of BTSGIF
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BTSGIF : Distribution Summary
Dividend Payment: Payout of not less than 90% of adjusted net profit1 p.a. and retained earnings (quarterly payment) Capital Reduction: The Fund has excess liquidity (cash from amortisation of fund issuance costs and unrealized los on investment (non-cash expense)) and reduce its registered capital
DISTRIBUTION Distribution to unitholders (THB 0.780/unit in FY18/19, and THB 0.798/unit in FY17/18)
Total distribution of THB 25.6bn or THB 4.416 per unit since IPO
0.000 0.125* 0.064 0.000 0.000 0.169 0.579 0.606 0.692 0.772 0.798 0.611 0.579 0.731 0.756 0.772 0.798 0.780
FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19
Capital decrease Dividend Unit : THB/unit
*From excess cash for the period from 17 Apr 2013 to 31 Mar 2015
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KEY FACTOR PREVIOUS REPORT (MAR 16) CURRENT REPORT (MAR 19) Lower economic growth rate
Lower inflation rate 3% 2.5% Integrated fare structure of MRTA lines (one-time boarding fee) No fare integration (boarding fee in each MRT line) Fare integration
boarding fee) Delay in the implementation of dual track and the impact of closure of Saphan Taksin station Expect dual track implementation in 2021 No closure of Saphan Taksin station Expect dual track implementation in 2022 Closure 2.5 years Moving the van terminal at Victory Monument Having van terminal at Victory Monument Moving van terminal at Victory Monument Delay of the opening of Green Line Extension
Bang Wa - Taling Chan in 2019
Stadium - Yodsay in 2021
Bang Wa - Taling Chan in 2022
National Stadium - Yodsay
BTSGIF : Key Factors to a Decrease in Projected Farebox Revenue
Asset appraisal is conducted every 3 years as per the SEC regulation
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Unrealised loss from investment in NRTA Deficient retained earnings of Mar 19, however, it has excess cash flow from NRTA Being paid as CAPITAL REDUCTION (has excess cash) instead of dividend
(which must be done every 3 years).
IMPACT
1Q-3Q: Dividend THB 0.611 4Q: Capital Reduction THB 0.169 Total Distribution THB 0.78
BTSGIF : Unrealised Gain (Loss) On Investments and Impact
BTSGIF : Distribution Summary Outlook
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PPP
PERIOD
9M 18/19 4Q 18/19 1Q 19/20E 2Q 19/20E 3Q 19/20E 4Q 19/20E
(Apr 18 – Dec 18) (Jan 19 – Mar 19) (Apr 19 – Jun 19) (Jul 19 – Sep 19) (Oct 19 – Dec 19) (Jan 20 – Mar 20) DIVIDEND
0.611
CAPITAL REDUCTION
0.169
TOTAL DISTRIBUTION
0.611
0.169
THB PER UNIT
BTSGIF : Appendices
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214.7 218.7 232.5 238.0 241.2 241.0 257.9 266.1 278.0 287.8 301.2 308.9 322.2 324.4 338.8 353.2 367.5 1.9% 6.3% 2.4% 1.3%
7.0%(1) 3.2%(2) 4.5% 3.5% 4.6% 2.6% 4.3% 0.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1%
Forecasted ridership per Systra MVA (Thailand) YoY growth (%)
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Appendix: Forecasted Ridership until FY 29/30 by Systra MVA (Thailand)
BTSGIF: Forecast of Ridership until FY 29/30
Projected ridership
CAGR Ridership (FY 18/19 – FY 29/30)
3.9%
CAGR Fare (FY 18/19 – FY 29/30)
3.1%
CAGR FB Revenue (FY 18/19 – FY 29/30)
7.2%
CAGR Net FB Revenue (FY 18/19 – FY 29/30)
9.1%
(1) YoY growth of forecasted ridership per the Fund (FY19/20) compared to actual ridership (FY18/19). (2) YoY growth of forecasted ridership per MVA compared to the Fund (FY19/20). If comparing to the forecasted ridership per MVA in FY19/20, the YoY growth would be 1.3% .
Note: These projections were derived from valuation report by American Appraisal (Thailand) Ltd. (AA). For FY 13/14A, ridership was for the full year of FY 13/14.
Actual ridership Forecasted ridership per the Fund 262.6
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Appendix: New lines as a key contributor to the expected ridership CAGR of 3.9%
BTSGIF: Targeted Ridership Growth
Talad Phlu
Southern Green Line
+ 17.9 KM DURING THE PAST 6 YRS
Northern Green Line Yellow Line Lad Prao Intersection
*Feb 13: Wongwian Yai – Talad Phlu (2 stations)
Dec 13: Talad Phlu– Bang Wa (2 stations)
Already operated Already secured, to be operated YoY Growth Expected YoY Growth
Gold Line Pink Line Samrong Wongwian Yai
+ 84.8 KM IN NEXT 3 YRS 2.3% CAGR (FY13/14 – FY18/19) 3.9% CAGR (FY18/19 – FY29/30)
EXPECTED CAGR OF 3.9% (FY18/19- FY 29/30) ADDITIONAL SECURED LINES 84.8 KM RIDERSHIP CAGR OF 2.3% (FY13/14- FY 18/19) NEW LINES 17.9 KM
1.9% 6.3% 2.4% 1.3%
7.0% 3.2% 4.5%
31.0 36.3 36.3 36.3 36.3 38.1 48.9 50.7 68.8 5.3 1.8 10.8 1.8 18.1 64.9 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20 FY 20/21 FY 21/22
5,677 5,874 6,397 6,636 6,821 6,962 7,478 8,292 8,707 9,648 10,125 11,023 11,654 12,455 13,234 14,045 10,116 3.5% 8.9% 3.7% 2.8% 2.1% 7.4%(1) 10.9%(2) 5.0% 10.8% 4.9% 8.9% 5.7% 6.9% 6.3% 6.1% 6.0% Forecasted farebox revenue per Systra MVA (Thailand) Farebox revenue growth (YoY) Actual farebox revenue Forecasted farebox revenue per the Fund
4,772
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Appendix: Forecast of Farebox Revenue until FY 29/30 by Systra MVA (Thailand)
BTSGIF : Forecast of Farebox Revenue until FY 29/30
Projected farebox revenue derived from valuation report
(1) YoY growth of the forecast per the Fund (FY19/20) compared to actual (FY18/19) (2) YoY growth of the forecast per MVA compared to the Fund (FY19/20). If comparing to the forecast per MVA FY19/20, the YoY farebox revenue growth would be 8.8%.
Note: These projections were derived from valuation report by American Appraisal (Thailand) Ltd. (AA). For FY 13/14A, farebox revenue was for the full year of FY 13/14.
7,619
3,774 3,957 4,475 4,543 4,696 4,603 4,951 5,973 6,079 7,120 7,572 8,398 8,918 9,659 10,566 11,308 8,167 4.9% 13.1% 1.5% 3.4%
7.6%(1) 20.6%(2) 1.8% 17.1% 6.3% 10.9% 6.2% 8.3% 9.4% 7.0% 6.3% Forecasted net cashflow per Systra MVA (Thailand) & Infra Asia (Thailand) Net cashflow growth (YoY)
22
Appendix: Projected Net Cashflow until FY 29/30 from Valuation Report
BTSGIF : Forecast of Net Farebox Revenue until FY 29/30 Actual net cashflow Forecasted net cashflow per the Fund
(1) YoY growth of the forecast per the Fund (FY19/20) compared to actual (FY18/19) (2) YoY growth of the forecast per MVA & Infra Asia compared to the Fund (FY19/20). If comparing to the forecast per MVA and Infra Asia FY19/20,
the net cashflow growth would be 17.3%. Note: Net cashflow has deducted additional investment costs for the construction and improvement of S4 and S6 stations.
3,664 5,092
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Appendix: Costs and Additional Investment Projection
BTSGIF : Costs and Additional Investment Projection
Key costs guidance Costs and Additional Investment Projection
Sources: Estimated by the Fund based on valuation report from American Appraisal (Thailand) Ltd. which the forecast and assumptions were based on Infra Asia (Thailand) Ltd.’s report in May 2019 and updated CAPEX and additional investment from BTSC. Except for FY 19/20 was based on BTSC budget. Unit: THB mn
*Maintenance expenses mainly composed
and new coming 3 trains, expected THB 480mn p.a. (avg on a smooth basis) and the non-Siemens lump-sum contract (in-house P&C maintenance). Source: Estimated by the Fund based on Infra Asia forecast and assumptions as of May 2019 and updated CAPEX and additional investment from BTSC. Except FY 19/20 total costs were based on BTSC budget. Normalised guidance p.a. (THB mn) from FY 19/20 to FY 28/29 (10 years) % of total
OPEX 2,338 89% Maintenance expenses* 813 31% Staff cost 749 29% Utilities expense 510 19% Others 266 10% CAPEX 205 8% Others 188 7% Rolling stocks 17 1% Additional Investment 69 3% Total costs and additional investment 2,612 100%
247 219 45
150 84 167
207 220 83 171 424 262 165 190 170 158 144 162 209 225 196 120 1,620 1,710 1,702 1,727 1,804 1,851 1,917 1,907 2,220 2,314 2,395 2,481 2,574 2,587 2,443 2,541 1,828
1,696 1,917 1,922 2,093 2,125 2,359 2,527 2,319 2,629 2,528 2,553 2,625 2,736 2,796 2,668 2,737 1,948
FY 13/14A FY 14/15A FY 15/16A FY 16/17A FY 17/18A FY 18/19A FY 19/20 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30
OPEX CAPEX (others) CAPEX (rolling stocks) Additional Investment
Ridership Growth
4 - 5%
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FY19/20 CAPEX Guidance FY19/20 Ridership Target
Appendix: Ridership Target and CAPEX Guidance
BTSGIF : Ridership Target and CAPEX Guidance
I. Rolling stocks of THB 190 mn II. AFC upgrade of THB 117 mn III. Station improvement of THB 50mn IV. Radio upgrade of THB 34 mn V. Others of THB 105 mn This CAPEX excludes construction of station S4 and improvement of station S6 which are recorded as investment in NRTA. Note: for future years, please refer to P. 23
BTSGIF: Suksa Wittaya Station (S4)
Winner announcement with final price
Chong Nonsi station (S3)
typical stairs and escalator
cost, using existing cash
Project details Tentative timeline
15 Oct 2015 BMA Approval Submission of bidding document Jan 2016 Trustee Approval Jun 2016 Signed construction contract Aug 2016 Construction finish S4 Operation 4Q 2020
3 months 2 months 18 months 2.5 months
Additional FY 2020/21E (first operating year) Ridership ~10,000 trips / weekday Gross farebox revenue ~THB 112mn p.a. Net farebox revenue ~THB 85mn p.a. Apr 2016
2 months
BMA Approval and started construction 2Q 2019
34 months
1Q 2021
25
BTSGIF : Appendices
26
FY 2018/19 EARNINGS PRESENTATION SET OPPORTUNITY DAY 7 JUN 2019
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
Investment involves risk. Prospective should understand the characteristics of Securities and study information about BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited (the “Company”) before making a decision to invest in Securities. This presentation is for information purposes only and is intended only for the initial direct attendee of the presentation. It may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. It shall not and does not constitute either an offer to purchase or buy or a solicitation to purchase or buy or an offer to sell or exchange
inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its existence, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein. This presentation is not to be relied upon in any manner as legal, tax or any other advice and shall not be used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment and each person made aware of the information set-forth hereof shall be responsible for conducting its own investigation and analysis of the information contained herein. Except where otherwise indicated, the information provided in this presentation is based on matters as they exist as of the date stated or, if no date is stated, as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and the information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. None of the Company nor any of its subsidiaries accepts any obligation to update
Company or any of its subsidiaries or any of their respective directors, officers, employees or agents shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation and any and all such liability is expressly disclaimed. The information contained herein must be kept strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed in any format without the express written approval of the Company. Some statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to the Company’s corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other statement that are not historical facts. These statement can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect” , “intend”, “estimate”, “continue”, “plan” or other similar words. The statements are based on the assumptions and beliefs of the Company’s management in light of the information currently available to the Company. These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this Presentation is, or should be relied
BTS Group Earnings Presentation 2
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS Group Earnings Presentation 3
FY 2018/19 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE SECTION 1 BUSINESS UPDATES SECTION 2 APPENDICES SECTION 3
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
4 BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: FY 2018/19 Financial Performance
Strong growth in revenue and profitability Operating Revenue of THB 47.9bn +29% YoY Net Recurring Profit (after MI)
FINANCIAL POSITION Balance sheet Expansion and Strength Cash & Liquid Investments of THB 18.7bn Adjusted Net D/E 1.03x Low leverage despite the increase in debt Investment phase continues; Net investment in Pink & Yellow Lines of THB 24.6bn Net investment in Green Line Extensions THB 4.1bn Investment in Kerry Express Thailand THB 5.0bn P&L HIGHLIGHTS 12M CASH FLOW +240% YoY +49% YoY Operating EBITDA of 6.1bn Balance Sheet expansion by 36%
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
5 BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: FY 2018/19 Financial Performance
2018 BTS GROUP MASS TRANSIT PROPERTY
JUN – JUL
MEDIA
Jun: Received the Notice-to- Proceed for Pink and Yellow Lines Jul: Received 30-year O&M Contract of Gold Line Phase 1 Jul: MACO acquired “Trans. Ad Group” in order to support its digital media expansion domestically and internationally
SEP – DEC
Oct: U City EGM approved (i) the capital reduction to clear its deficit in order to pay dividend in the future and (ii) reverse-stock split to facilitate U’s trading liquidity
JAN – MAR
Feb: Interim dividend of THB 0.17 per share was paid. Feb: VGI partnered with LAWSON to establish O2O ecosystem through Lawson Stores Mar: Submitted U-Tapao International Airport and Eastern City Development Project bid Sep: BTSG was selected as a member of DJSI EM 2018 Mar: VGI acquired 18.6% stake in “PlanB”, valued THB 4.6bn
APR - MAY
Apr: U City Entered into the Share Sale and Purchase Agreement to dispose ordinary shares of Mo Chit Land, to STEC, worth THB 4.3bn May: BoD approved final dividend THB 0.25 per share and the issuance of BTS-W5, exercise price at THB 14
(subject to shareholders’ approval)
May: Disposed Bayswater JV shares to CPN, worth THB 7.7bn Dec: Full operation of the Southern Green Line extension (Bearing – Kheha), totalling 12.6km, 9 stations Mar: New JV “VGI AnyMind” to incorporate AI solutions in advertising Apr: New JV “VClick” to capture advertising opportunity in Chinese consumer market May: THB 13bn first Thai Green Bond issued (avg. coupon rate 3.41%) Jul: VGI completed 23% acquisition of Kerry Express Thailand, total purchase price
2019
Oct: VGI launched new features of Rabbit Line Pay which enable RLP users to top up BTS cards through RLP Nov: BTS-W4 issued, with exercise price at THB 10.50 Sep: THB 9.5bn debenture issued (avg. coupon rate 3.38%) Apr: U City entered into share sales and purchase agreement to acquire hotels in Germany and Switzerland
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
OPERATING REVENUE COMPARISON (YoY)
INCOME STATEMENT (THB mn) FY 2018/19 FY 2017/18 % YoY Operating Revenue1 47,923 14,102 240% Gross operating profit 7,869 5,778 36% Operating EBITDA2 6,106 4,089 49% Recurring net profit – after MI 3,248 2,508 29% Accounting EBITDA 6,876 7,571 (9)% Net income (loss)3 2,873 4,416 (35)% Gross operating profit margin (%) 16.4% 41.0% Accounting EBITDA margin (%) 13.9% 42.3% Recurring net profit margin – after MI(%) 6.6% 16.0% Operating EBITDA margin (%) 12.7% 29.0%
P&L SNAPSHOT
FY 2018/19 OPERATING REVENUE BREAKDOWN
1 operating revenue of 4 BUs & share of net profit from BTSGIF 2 excluding non-mass transit interest income 3to equity holders of the parent
6
86% Mass Transit 11% Media 1% Property 2% Services BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: FY 2018/19 Financial Performance
14,102 47,923 32,216 1,221 (279) 663 FY17/18 Mass Transit Media Property Services FY18/19 (44)% 148% 31% 354% (THB mn)
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL Share in BTSGIF 2% O&M Construction revenue for Pink and Yellow Lines
74% Mass Transit related Interest income 3%
HISTORICAL OPERATING REVENUE (THB mn) KEY FACTORS
to THB 1,078mn
chiefly as a result of the full opening of Southern Green Line ext. in Dec 18 and the contractually agreed increase in the operating fee of the existing ext.
construction cost for the Pink and Yellow Lines
OPERATING PERFORMANCE
MASS TRANSIT (THB mn) FY 2018/19 FY 2017/18 %YoY Revenue 41,328 9,112 354% Costs of revenue 36,868 6,274 488% Gross profit 4,460 2,837 57% Operating EBITDA 4,498 2,872 57% Gross margin (%) 10.8% 31.1% Operating EBITDA margin (%) 10.9% 31.5%
OPERATING REVENUE BREAKDOWN
FY 2018/19
7
Services revenue from provision
train procurement for Green Line ext. 15% 5%
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: FY 2018/19 Financial Performance
468 452 452 565 807 252 228 244 239 187 234 193 242 289 354 1,205 926 1,524 2,183 1,451 11,777 13,616 5,325 14 16 228 15 4Q 17/18 1Q 18/19 2Q 18/19 3Q 18/19 4Q 18/19 Others Construction revenue for Pink and Yellow Lines Services revenue from provision of E&M works & train procurement for Green Line ext. Mass Transit related interest income Share of net profit in BTSGIF O&M * Comprised of (i) Services revenue from provision of E&M works for Gold Line and (ii) Farebox from BRT
Others* 1%
*
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
HISTORICAL OPERATING REVENUE (THB mn) KEY FACTORS
by organic growth in the OOH media segment and higher revenue from Digital Services segment
encouraging growth in all business units
1,282mn mainly due to the eight-month consolidation of Trans.Ad Group, higher revenue from Rabbit Group and the increase in average number of policies sold
month consolidation of Trans.Ad Group
46% BTS – Related Media 21% Outdoor Media MEDIA (THB mn) FY 2018/19 FY 2017/18 %YoY Operating revenue 5,123 3,902 31% Costs of revenue 1,919 1,234 56% Gross profit 3,204 2,668 20% Operating EBITDA 2,332 1,976 18% Gross margin (%) 65.5% 68.4% Operating EBITDA margin (%) 45.5% 50.6%
FY 2018/19
OPERATING PERFORMANCE OPERATING REVENUE BREAKDOWN
8
8% Office Buildings and Others 25% Digital
*OOH Media includes Transit, Outdoor and Office Building and Other Media
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: FY 2018/19 Financial Performance
1,020 990 909 965 1,047 87 87 296 495 335
4Q 17/18 1Q 18/19 2Q 18/19 3Q 18/19 4Q 18/19
Digital Services Media OOH
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
Residential 4%
HISTORICAL OPERATING REVENUE (THB mn) KEY FACTORS
which decreased by 46% YoY, primarily attributable to the deconsolidation of the majority of BTS property business as a result of the EBT of UE to U City in 4Q 17/18
(THB 505mn loss in FY 2017/18) as U City recognised lower loss on impairment of assets, improved operating performance of hotel business in Europe and the transfer progress of Sansiri-JVs
revenue, reducing by 37% YoY or THB 153mn to THB 261mn.
OPERATING PERFORMANCE
PROPERTY (THB mn) FY 2018/19 FY 2017/18 %YoY Operating Revenue 360 639 (44)% Costs of revenue 261 413 (37)% Gross profit 99 226 (56)% Operating EBITDA (22) (4) 460% Gross margin (%) 27.6% 35.3% Operating EBITDA margin (%) (6.1)% (0.6)%
OPERATING REVENUE BREAKDOWN
FY 2018/19
NOTE: Property operating performances exclude share of profit/(loss) from investment in BTS-SIRI JVs, U City and Bayswater.
9
96% Commercial & Others BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: FY 2018/19 Financial Performance
160 80 87 85 107
4Q 17/18 1Q 18/19 2Q 18/19 3Q 18/19 4Q 18/19
Operating revenue
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
46,364 52,150 36,971 50,370 22,923 41,794
31 Mar 18 31 Mar 19 Total shareholders' equity Total non-current liabilities Total current liabilities
144,315 106,258 84,591 123,186 21,667 21,129
31 Mar 18 31 Mar 19 Total non-current assets Total current assets
144,315 106,258 Cash 31 Mar 18: THB 9.5bn 31 Mar 19: THB 4.0bn Current Investments 31 Mar 18: THB 5.7bn 31 Mar 19: THB 7.7bn Long-Term Investments 31 Mar 18: THB 15.9bn 31 Mar 19: THB 14.6bn 80% 20% 15% 85% 29% 36% 35% 44% 21% 35%
FY 2018/19:
1.39x
FY 2017/18: 1.02x
Gross Debt to Equity
FY 2018/19:
1.03x
FY 2017/18: 0.37x
Adjusted Net Debt* to Equity
FY 2018/19:
7.43x
FY 2017/18: 3.02x
Adjusted Net Debt* to Recurring EBITDA
FY 2018/19: 3.70x FY 2017/18: 3.31x
Interest Coverage
FY 2018/19:
0.51x
FY 2017/18: 0.95x
Current Ratio
ASSETS BREAKDOWN LIABILITIES AND EQUITY BREAKDOWN KEY RATIOS
10
*Adjusted Net Debt = Interest Bearing Debt – Cash and Cash Equivalent and Liquid Investment
(THB mn) (THB mn) BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: FY 2018/19 Financial Performance
Gross Debt 31 Mar 18: THB 47.2bn 31 Mar 19: THB 72.5bn Adjusted Net Debt* 31 Mar 18: THB 17.1bn 31 Mar 19: THB 53.8bn ***** Issued Ordinary Shares 31 Mar 18: 11,940.4mn 31 Mar 19: 11,845.4mn
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
11 BTS Group Earnings Presentation
FY 2018/19 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE SECTION 1 BUSINESS UPDATES SECTION 2 APPENDICES SECTION 3
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
FY 2018/19 Core Network Ridership
12
Historical Ridership & % Growth (YoY) Historical Average Fare & % Growth (YoY)
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 2: Business Updates
*Excluding the impact of free-trip allowance to passengers from train services disruption
218.7 232.5 238.0 241.2 241.0 1.9% 6.3% 2.4% 1.3%
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Total Ridership (mn trips) Ridership Growth (% YoY)
26.9 27.5 27.9 28.3 29.0* 1.6% 2.4% 1.3% 1.4% 2.4%
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Average fare price (THB) % Change YoY
241.0mn trips
+0.1% YoY
card in April 2018
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
Progress of BTS Secured Lines
13 Included in Masterplan 17 Oct 18 Included in Masterplan 17 Oct 18 NTP issued 29 Jun 18 NTP issued 29 Jun 18
*Sources: Information was from MRTA and the Company’s report as of 30 April 2019, except for E&M for Northern Green Line ext. and Gold Line which were as of 30 May 2019
NORTHERN GREEN LINE EXT. (Mochit - Khukot) 18.2km/ 16 stations PINK LINE (Khae Rai – Min Buri) 34.5km/ 30 stations YELLOW LINE (Ladprao - Samrong) 30.4km/ 23 stations
FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20 FY 20/21
Targeted 1st station: (Aug 2019) Targeted full Operation (2020)
Contract Signed
FY 21/22
Targeted
(Oct 2021) Targeted
(Oct 2021)
Contract Signed
Construction Period Construction Period Construction Period
100%
PINK LINE (EXTENSION) (Sirat – Muengthong Thani) 3.0km/ 2 stations YELLOW LINE (EXTENSION) (Ratchada - Ratchayothin) 2.6km/ 2 stations GOLD LINE PHASE 1 (Krung Thon Buri – Klong San) 1.7km/ 3 stations Targeted
(by Sep 2020) O&M contract Signed (31 Jul 18) Construction Period
34% 20% 19% 33% 34% 20%
Civil E&M Progress(%)*
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 2: Business Updates
27%
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
VGI’s Partnership
14 BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 2: Business Updates
Acquisition of 18.6% in PlanB
Collaboration of the Top Players in OOH Media Segment
% of investment 18.6% of total shares 1. 9.5% from existing shareholders 2. 9.1% from newly issued ordinary shares Total shares acquisition 1. 368.8mn shares from existing shareholders 2. 353.0mn shares from PLANB’s newly shares Acquisition price THB 6.40 per share Total investment THB 4,619.6mn Source of fund: Cash of THB 2,900mn and Loan THB 1,700mn
Lajanagosin Group
Luechaikajohn pan Group Public 43.6% 6.4% 31.4% 18.6%
completed OOH journey to data optimisation with engaging entertainment content, to convert on payment & loyalty platforms
Partnership with Anymind Group
To incorporate AI solutions in Offline and Online advertising
and influencer marketing into VGI O2O Solutions offering to provide better performance for our clients
Anymind’s technology and VGI’s digital out-of-home media assets to increase effectiveness of out-of-home media platforms in terms
analyse and mobilise Rabbit data network
Partnership with I-Click Interactive Asia Group
To capture advertising opportunity in Chinese consumer market
cross border advertising solution distributor
and new media products, including: O2O Solutions: launching 10,000 new mobile charging stations with LED display, which will be placed throughout VGI’s network across Thailand such as BTS SkyTrain stations and Kerry Express’s distribution centers.
Chinese search engine Game Online Operator Travel service provider Instant messaging service
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
VGI’s Broaden User-Base from Rabbit and Kerry Network Expansion
15 BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 2: Business Updates
RABBIT LINEPAY
Rabbit LinePay serves more than 5.5mn users, an increase of 83.0% YTD
Partnership with AIS
2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5
Single e-wallet with BTS and Rabbit Card & Rabbit LinePay
+83.0% YTD
RABBIT CARD
Rabbit Card circulation reached 11.0mn, increased by 23.2% YTD
9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.0
+23.2% YTD
KERRY PARCEL SHOP KERRY TRUCK
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
Disposal of the Investment in Bayswater JV to CPN, Worth THB 7.7bn
16
Transaction Disposal of the investment in Bayswater Co., Ltd. Rationale To generate profit and to use proceeds for other businesses, projects or working capital of the Company Seller The Company Buyer Central Pattana Public Company Limited (CPN) Value of Disposed Investment THB 7,699mn Amount of Shares to be Disposed 50,000 ordinary shares (50% of total shares) at par value of THB 100 per share Asset Details Land 48 – 3 – 12.8 Rai (78,051.2sqm) Ownership: Freehold BTS Proximity 200m from Phahon Yothin 24 Station (N10 of Northern Green Line extension)
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 2: Business Updates
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
U’s Disposal of the Investment in Mochit Land to STEC, Worth THB 4.3bn
Transaction Ordinary Shares Disposal of Mo Chit Land Company Limited Seller U City PLC (BTS Associates) Buyer Sino-Thai Engineering and Construction PLC (STEC) Total Price THB 4,320mn Amount of Shares to be Disposed 29,550,000 ordinary shares (100% of total shares) at par value of THB 27.25 per share Asset Details Land and commercial buildings (Shop house) in amount of 63 plots 11-0-40.7 Rai (4,440.7 Sq.Wah) Payment Terms 1st installment: 1 November 2019 THB 1,300mn (transfer date) 2nd installment: 1 November 2020 THB 1,000mn 3rd installment: 1 November 2021 THB 1,000mn 4th installment: 1 November 2022 THB 1,020mn Shares Transfer Date 1 November 2019
17 BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 2: Business Updates
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
First Thai Green Bond Offering to Institutional & HNW Investors
18 BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 2: Business Updates
THB 13BN GREEN BOND Rationale: Issuance Date: For debt repayment of Eligible Green Projects (Pink & Yellow Line) 24 May 2019 Average Coupon Rate: 3.41% Complied with
By ICMA
Climate Bonds Standard version 2.1
Verified by
Provide Second Party Opinion (SPO) to verify BTSG Greenbond Framework Aligned with GBP Certified by Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI)
Certified by THB 13.0bn Issue Size: THB 41.7bn Bidding Demand: A/ Stable rated by TRIS Credit Rating:
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS-W4 and BTS-W5 Term Sheets
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 2: Business Updates Ticker BTS-W4 Term 1 year from the issuance date Issuance date 30 November 2018 Expiry date 29 November 2019 Warrants price nil
1,315,710,907 units Allocation To existing shareholders at the ratio of 9 existing BTS shares : 1 bts-W4 Exercise ratio1 1 BTS-W4 to 1.1 new common share of BTS Exercise price THB 10.50 per share Expected maximum proceeds THB 13.8bn Exercise period Quarterly Progress 48.8mn units exercised, generating proceeds
proceeds
BTS-W4 TERMS AND CONDITIONS
19 Ticker BTS-W5 Term 1 year from the issuance date Warrants price nil
Up to 1,319.61mn units Allocation To existing shareholders at the ratio of 10 existing BTS shares : 1 BTS-W5 Exercise ratio 1 BTS-W5 to 1 new common share of BTS Exercise price THB 14 per share Expected maximum proceeds THB 18.5bn Exercise period Quarterly
1Subject to shareholders’ approval, issuance of new warrants (BTS-W5) up to
1,319.6mn units, calculated based on the assumption that BTS-W4 Warrants (including the case of rights adjustment of BTS-W4 Warrants) and BTS-WC Warrants which are entitled to exercise are fully exercised. The number of shares with the right to receive BTS-W5 Warrants will be equivalent to 13,195.7mn shares.
BTS-W5 TERMS AND CONDITIONS
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS Group Earnings Presentation 20
FY 2018/19 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE SECTION 1 BUSINESS UPDATES SECTION 2 APPENDICES SECTION 3
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
THB 1.5 - 1.9bn
Mass-transit related interest income
THB 27 - 33bn THB 0.7bn THB 0.2bn
(Excludes: Real estate development cost)
THB 23 - 27bn
Pink and Yellow Lines Construction revenue
THB 4 - 6bn
Revenue from E&M provision and train procurement for Green Line extensions
4 - 5%
Core Network ridership growth
THB 3.4bn
Train O&M revenue
THB 6.0 - 6.2bn
VGI Revenue
40 - 45%
VGI EBITDA margin
20 - 25%
VGI NPAT margin
≥ 20%
U City EBITDA margin
THB 350mn
BTS Group Property Revenue
THB 7.2 - 7.5bn
U City Revenue
BTS GROUP TARGETS CAPEX: THB 28-34BN MASS TRANSIT PROPERTY MEDIA
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Appendices 21
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
Progress of New Trains Delivery
22
14 trains arrived Another 8 trains will be completely delivered by 2019 First batch arrived in 1H 2019 The remaining will be completely delivered by 2020
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Appendices
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
Progress of BTS Targeted Lines
Sources: MRTA, the Company
FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 WESTERN GREEN LINE EXT.
(Bang Wa – Taling Chan) 7.0km/ 6 stations Targeted Full operation Targeted Full operation Expected open bid/ award Expected open bid/ award
LRT
(Bangna - Suvarnabhumi) 18.3km/ 14 stations
GREY LINE PHASE 1
(Watcharaphon - Thonglo) 16.3km/ 15 stations
ORANGE LINE
(Min Buri – Taling Chan) 39.6km/ 29 stations Expected open bid/ award Expected open bid/ award Targeted Full operation Targeted Full operation
FY 22/23
Construction Period Construction Period Construction Period Construction Period (Civil works of Eastern Orange) BTS Group Earnings Presentation Appendices 23
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
U-Tapao International Airport - Project at a Glance
24 BTS Group Earnings Presentation Appendices
3 Consortiums submitted bid of U-Tapao
Location Plub Pla ,Ban Chang District, Rayong Province Land Area
Contract Type PPP Net Cost Contract Term 50 Years Authority Royal Thai Navy Total Project Cost THB 91bn per market sounding Sources of Fund Debt 70 : Equity 30
Project Details
45% 35% 20%
3 Years 47 Years Design & Build Operation and Maintenance
BBS
JV 2 3 4 1 5 6 7
PPP Project Scope
Facilities
Timeline
Source: Company Data and Market Sounding
21 March 2019 Bidding Submission 2019 Expected Best Bid Announcement October 2018 RFP selling period
Package Inclusion: Package Exclusion:
Grande Asset: 80% Thai Air Asia: 10% Christiani & Neilson: 10%
Grand Consortium
Thana Holding Ch Karnchang Italian Thai Development
Venture Holding
(42 companies bought U-Tapao RFP) CP Consortium
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
Western Orange Eastern Orange Eastern Orange Western Orange EXPECTED TIMELINE
Orange Line – Project at a Glance
25 2023 Targeted Commercial Operation Date MAY 2017 Civil work construction of Eastern Orange began 2019 Expect request for proposal (RFP) for Civil work construction of Western Orange & E&M, available for sale
Underground Stations Elevated Stations
ORANGE LINE (39.6KM, 29 STATIONS) CAPEX Civil ~THB 90bn* E&M ~THB 30bn Route Length
Station Taling Chan – Thailand Cultural Center 17km 12 (underground) Route Length
Station Thailand Cultural Center - Min Buri 22.6km 17 (10 aboveground and 7 underground)
* Western Orange civil works CAPEX
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Appendices
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
26
14 Projects SIRI-JV Condomimium Launched with Upcoming 3 Projects
PARTNERSHIP ROADMAP 2015 2016
50:50 JV to develop a targeted THB 100bn worth of condominiums along current and future mass transit lines through the JV with Sansiri PCL with an expected NPAT margin 12%
2018
The LINE Jatujak – Mo Chit Project value: THB 5,815mn
The LINE Sukhumvit 71 Project value: THB 1,967mn
The LINE Ratchathewi Project value: THB 2,851mn
The LINE Asoke-Ratchada Project value: THB 3,022mn
The BASE Garden Rama 9 Project value: THB 2,336mn
The LINE Phahon-Pradipat Project value: THB 5,890mn
2017
The BASE Phetkasem 29 Project value: THB 2,012mn
The MONUMENT Thong Lo
Project value: THB 6,258mn
The LINE Sathorn Project value: THB 3,910mn
The LINE Sukhumvit 101 Project value: THB 4,653mn
KHUN BY YOO Project value: THB 4,069mn
The LINE Wongsawang Project value: THB 4,776mn
The LINE Wongsawang The LINE Sukhumvit 101 The LINE Jatujak-Mo Chit
Fully transferred
The BASE Saphanmai Project value: THB 2,921mn
The LINE Phahonyothin Park Project value: THB 4,961mn
2019
The LINE Sathorn
The BASE Ratchada-Thapra Project value: THB 3,050mn
VIA Sukhumvit 34 Project value: THB 1,345mn
Yak Phang Muang
Project value: THB 1,842mn
Ready to move in New project To be transferred
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Appendices
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
MEDIA
FY 2018/19 BTS GROUP TARGETS
THB 5bn (revised)
Targeted Media Revenue (Actual THB 5.1bn)
1% (revised)
Core Network ridership growth (Actual -0.1% YoY)
1.5-2%
Core Network average fare increase (Actual +2.4% YoY)
30%
Train O&M revenue growth (Actual +29% YoY)
THB 7-9bn
Revenue from E&M provision and train procurement for Green Line South and North extensions (Actual THB 6.7bn)
THB 350mn
Targeted BTS Group Property Revenue (Actual THB 360mn) (Actual 19%)
THB 20-25bn
Construction revenue for Pink and Yellow Lines (Actual THB 30.7bn)
THB 6-6.7bn
Targeted U City Property Revenue (Actual 7.0bn)
≥ 25% EBITDA margin (at U City level) 40-45%
EBITDA margin
(Actual 43.0%)
20-25%
NPAT margin
(Actual 21.5%)
THB 0.6-0.7bn
Interest income from train procurement and construction revenue for Pink and Yellow lines (Actual THB 1.1bn)
MASS TRANSIT
FY 2018/19 CAPEX: THB 27-34BN
THB 26-32bn
(Excludes: BTSGIF CAPEX )
Line South and North extensions
construction (Actual THB 28.7bn; P/Y THB 24.6bn E&M and trains THB 4.1bn)
THB 1.1bn
(Actual THB 750mn)
THB 0.4bn
(Excludes: Real estate development cost)
PROPERTY
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Appendices 27