Brookfield Asset Management
12th Annual Investor Meeting September 28, 2016
Brookfield Asset Management 12 th Annual Investor Meeting September - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Brookfield Asset Management 12 th Annual Investor Meeting September 28, 2016 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Forward-Looking Statements and Information This presentation contains forward-looking information within the
Brookfield Asset Management
12th Annual Investor Meeting September 28, 2016
Forward-Looking Statements and Information This presentation contains “forward-looking information” within the meaning of Canadian provincial securities laws and “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, “safe harbor” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and in any applicable Canadian securities regulations. Forward-looking statements include statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, include statements regarding the operations, business, financial condition, expected financial results, performance, prospects,
and international economies for the current fiscal year and subsequent periods. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by terms such as “expects,” “anticipates,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “seeks,” “intends,” “targets,” “projects,” “forecasts” or negative versions thereof and other similar expressions, or future or conditional verbs such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “would” and “could.” Although we believe that our anticipated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements and information are based upon reasonable assumptions and expectations, the reader should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and information because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond our control, which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Brookfield Asset Management to differ materially from anticipated future results, performance or achievement expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements and information. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated or implied by forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: the impact or unanticipated impact of general economic, political and market factors in the countries in which we do business; the behavior of financial markets, including fluctuations in interest and foreign exchanges rate; global equity and capital markets and the availability of equity and debt financing and refinancing within these markets; strategic actions including dispositions; the ability to complete and effectively integrate acquisitions into existing operations and the ability to attain expected benefits; changes in accounting policies and methods used to report financial condition (including uncertainties associated with critical accounting assumptions and estimates); the effect of applying future accounting changes; business competition; operational and reputational risks; technological change; changes in government regulation and legislation within the countries in which we operate; changes in tax laws, catastrophic events, such as earthquakes and hurricanes; the possible impact of international conflicts and other developments including terrorist acts; and other risks and factors detailed from time to time in our documents filed with the securities regulators in Canada and the United States. We caution that the foregoing list of important factors that may affect future results is not exhaustive. When relying on our forward-looking statements, investors and others should carefully consider the foregoing factors and other uncertainties and potential events. Except as required by law, Brookfield Asset Management undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements or information, whether written or oral, that may be as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Use of Non-IFRS Measures and Other This presentation contains references to financial measures which are not generally accepted accounting measures under IFRS and may differ from similar definitions used by
by our operations. Such measures should not be considered as the sole indicators of our performance and should not be considered in isolation from, or as a substitute for, analysis of our financial statements prepared in accordance with IFRS. Certain values used in this presentation are for illustrative purposes and based on various factors that may or may not materialize, including past performance metrics that may not be indicative of future performance. References to Brookfield, Brookfield Asset Management or BAM are to Brookfield Asset Management Inc. together with its subsidiaries unless the context reflects otherwise. All amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise specified.
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Agenda
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Bruce Flatt 4
Chief Executive Officer
Brian Lawson 45
Chief Financial Officer
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Review of the past 12 months The fundraising environment today Our competitive advantages The growth of our Funds Where we are going from here 1 2 3 4 5
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$4.4
$1.0
$0.8
$7.0
$2.7 $1.0
2014 2016
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59% 34% 7%
Europe & Other North America Asia, Middle East, Australia
1) As at June 30, 2016. Private fund capital by geography
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49% 29% 10% 12% North America South America Asia & Other Europe Peru India Germany
1) LTM as at June 30, 2016
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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TOTAL ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT
($billions)
1) As at June 30
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Provides investors with the ability to invest directly in businesses within our private equity group Creates a permanent equity base for these businesses Establishes a currency to transact with
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1) One year return as at June 30, 2016
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Source equity from clients seeking exposure to property and infrastructure returns Use our access to large scale capital to invest on behalf of clients Utilize our global reach to identify and acquire high-quality Real Assets Finance assets on a long-term, low-risk basis Enhance the cash flows and value of assets by leveraging our leading
1 2 3 4 5
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Negative interest rates in Japan and Europe continue to put downward pressure on the long U.S. rate Global growth is slow so it looks like we will continue in a low interest rate environment for a while
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Equity/Fixed Income Real Assets
90 10 85 15
2000 2016 2030
60 40
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– continued slow growth and low interest rate environment
– with infrastructure investment growing at accelerated rates
– increasing allocations to alternatives and foreign investments by Asian insurance companies and institutions
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growth in cash flow returns
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$108 Billion Fee Bearing Capital
1) As at June 30, 2016
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Transactions
Private Funds Listed Partnerships Co-investors BAM Joint Venture Partners
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Investors and regulators expect best-in-class governance and compliance We have invested in our client service capabilities
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– $18 billion of dry powder in private funds – Listed partnership liquidity and perpetual equity
and joint venture capital
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Notes/Assumptions: 1) As at June 30, 2016. Excludes funds in market and funds closed within twelve months of the performance calculation date. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gross Internal Rate of Return (“Gross IRR”) reflects the annualized performance before fund expenses, management fees and carried interest
Vintage Gross IRR1 Opportunistic Real Estate 2006 – 2015 23% Private Equity 2001 – 2015 23% Core and Value-add Real Estate 2004 – 2013 14% Infrastructure 2006 – 2016 15%
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Making Repeatable Investments
scale and knowledge
more value
Purchasing for Value
scarce
will hold forever
30 Sogamoso Hydro, Colombia Calderas, Colombia
Purchasing for Value Repeatable Investment
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Repeatable Investment
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Repeatable Investment
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LARGE SCALE CAPITAL
GLOBAL REACH
OPERATING CAPABILITIES
35 Potsdamer, Berlin
LARGE SCALE CAPITAL
GLOBAL REACH
OPERATING CAPABILITIES
36 Holtwood Hydro, Pennsylvania
LARGE SCALE CAPITAL
GLOBAL REACH
OPERATING CAPABILITIES
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INVESTED1
INVESTED1
INVESTED1
1) As at September 23, 2016 – invested or committed
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assets under management
fee bearing capital
countries
investment professionals
invested capital
1) As at June 30, 2016
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Our competitive advantages offer us opportunities in all environments Interest rates look like they will be relatively low for a long time Commodities and emerging markets are slowly recovering We believe that Brazil bottomed in January 2016
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Enhancing returns and asset values Maintain excellent client service and expanding our investor base Sourcing deals and investing $18 billion of dry powder at or above target returns Preparing for next series of flagship funds and launching new products Optimizing value of listed issuers 1 2 3 4 5
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– Strong demand for Real Asset strategies – Attractive investment opportunities – Favourable financing conditions
– Large scale capital and established execution capabilities – Strong client base with room to grow
next 10 years – Asset management cash flows should be ±$4 billion annualized – At normal valuations, a share should have an intrinsic value of ±$160 in 2026
Financial Review – Brian Lawson
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Progress since last year Balance sheet and liquidity Growth potential
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(Annualized)
Notes/Assumptions: 1) Impact reflects annualized base fees and target carry, year-over-year change as at June 30 2) LTM net flows to private fund fee bearing capital
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(Annualized)
Notes/Assumptions: 1) Impact reflects annualized base fees and incentive distributions, year-over-year change as at June 30
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Q2 2015 Base Fees & IDRs Transaction & Other Fees Direct Costs Q2 2016
$440 $660 $49 $31
FEE RELATED EARNINGS (LTM)
($millions)
$238
Notes/Assumptions: 1) LTM fee related earnings as at June 30. Excludes net carried interest
FEE RELATED EARNINGS
($millions)
$440 $700 $960 $1,220 $1,480 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Notes/Assumptions: 1) Excludes net carried interest 2) 2016 interpolated value from our 2015 Investor Day financial plan
2015 Investor Day 2016 Investor Day
$1,455 $660 $1,140
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Carry Eligible Capital Annualized Target Carry
($billions) ($millions)
Core & Value Add $ 22 $ 350 Opportunistic 17 480 $ 39 830 Direct costs (35%) (290) $ 540
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($millions)
2015 Investor Day 2016 2015A 2016P Actual 20x Fee related earnings $ 8,800 $ 10,650 $ 13,200 10x Target carried interest, net 3,090 3,490 5,400 $ 11,890 $ 14,140 $ 18,600
Notes/Assumptions: 1) 2016P interpolated from our 2015 Investor Day; target growth of 21% FRE and13% target carried interest 2) Multiple of 20x LTM fee related earnings, as at June 30 3) Multiple of 10x target carried interest as at June 30, net of direct costs; assumes 65% gross margin
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Brookfield Business Partners spin-off – $0.50 special distribution to shareholders – ~85% of our balance sheet is now invested in listed securities Deployed or committed to invest $16 billion of capital (LTM) 11% total return on IFRS portfolio values 8% dividend growth on BAM shares Strengthened our capitalization and liquidity profile
Notes/Assumptions: 1) One year total return as at June 30, 2016, based on increase in IFRS values and FFO
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BPY BEP BIP BBU Unlisted Other Listed
INVESTED CAPITAL – $30 BILLION
Notes/Assumptions: 1) As at June 30, 2016
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Capitalization Average Maturity Total
($billions)
Corporate borrowings 8 years $ 4 Preferred shares Perp. 4 Common shares + 35 $ 43 Total Liquidity Total Core Liquidity $ 6 Uncalled fund commitments 18 $ 24
Notes/Assumptions: 1) Common shares based on recent market pricing
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Co-invest Seed new products Expedite transaction execution
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INVESTED CAPITAL
($billions)
2016 $ 30 CAGR Capital appreciation Distribution increases (mid-point) 12 7.0% Eliminate BPY discount 5 2.7% 17 9.7% Retained free cash flow Invested capital 8 3.7% Capitalization (5) Fee related earnings 5 8 2021 $ 55 13.5%
Notes/Assumptions: 1) Totals may not add due to rounding. As at June 30. Projected 2021 results 2) Retained free cash flow includes fee related earnings and invested capital cash flow. Assumes mid-point distribution growth for BPY, BIP and BEP and a 7% increase per annum in BAM’s common dividend. Capitalization & costs includes common share distributions. Accumulated balances are reinvested at 8% 3) 13.4% shown reflects a total return
+13.4%
INCREASE
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($millions, except per share amounts)
Quoted1 IFRS1 Discount BPY NAV per share $ 23 $ 31 $ 8 Units held by BAM 485 485 485 Invested Capital $ 10,890 $ 14,780 $ 3,890
+36%
Notes/Assumptions: 1) As at June 30, 2016
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2016 2016
($millions)
LTM FFO Free Cash Flow Asset Manager Fee related earnings $ 660 $ 660 Carried interest, net 15 – 675 660 Invested Capital Invested capital 1,659 1,251 Disposition gains 844 – Financing and corporate costs (356) (489) 2,147 762 Total $ 2,822 $ 1,422
Notes/Assumptions: 1) As at June 30. Please refer to endnotes for detailed definitions of Funds from Operations (“FFO”) and Free Cash Flow (“FCF”). FCF from financing and corporate costs includes preferred share distributions which are excluded in FFO
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FREE CASH FLOW
($millions)
2016 2021 Fee related earnings $ 660 $ 1,455 Invested capital 1,251 2,150 Financing and corporate costs (489) (500) Total $ 1,422 $ 3,105
17%
Notes/Assumptions: 1) As at June 30. 2016 LTM and 2021 projected annualized results. 2) Retained free cash flow includes fee related earnings and invested capital cash flow. Assumes mid-point distribution growth for BPY, BIP and BEP and a 7% increase per annum in BAM’s common
3) Please refer to endnotes for a detailed definition of Free Cash Flow (“FCF”)
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7% average annual increase over past five years Strong coverage with current and projected free cash flow Expect no policy change in the short term but will reassess on an ongoing basis
Looking ahead…
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7-12 YEARS
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RAISE DEPLOY
(YEARS 1-4)
ENHANCE VALUE
(YEARS 4-12)
HARVEST
(YEARS 7-12)
Establish base fee Lock in capital/fees for remainder of fund term Generate IRR/MoC and carry Return capital to clients and realize carry
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2016 MATURITY 2021
$47B $91B
PRIVATE FUND FEE BEARING CAPITAL CURRENT NEW FLAGSHIP FUNDS NEW CORE+ FUNDS NEW NICHE FUNDS
87%
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23 mths / 22 mths
19 mths / >65% in 18 mths
24 mths / 35 mths
20 mths / >33% in 15 mths
11 mths / 28 mths
10 mths / >30% in 5 mths
PREVIOUS SERIES
Raise / Deploy
CURRENT SERIES
Raise / Deploy
Notes/Assumptions: 1) Flagship funds 2) Raise reflects the number of months from marketing launch to final close. Deploy reflects the number of months from when the fund has substantially invested aggregate commitments (typically 75%) allowing for the next fund to be raised, except for current funds, which reflects the number of months from first close to September 2016
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PRIVATE FUNDS & PUBLIC SECURITIES
($millions)
FBC Base Fees 2016 $ 59,545 $ 560 Less: Fund maturities (6,000) Add: Flagship funds 2017/2019 20,000 2020/2021 20,000 Core+ funds 5,000 Niche funds 5,000 Public securities 7,000 Increase 51,000 600 2021 $ 110,545 $ 1,160
Notes/Assumptions: 1) As at June 30 2) Projected annualized results
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LISTED PARTNERSHIPS
($millions)
FBC Base Fees 2016 $ 48,767 $ 425 Market appreciation Shrink valuation gaps 5,500 Distribution growth 16,500 Issuances 10,000 Increase 32,000 400 2021 $ 80,767 $ 825
Notes/Assumptions: 1) Projected annualized results 2) Market appreciation; eliminate the market price to IFRS discount for BPY and listed partnership dividend growth at mid-point of target distribution growth rates 3) Issuances; preferred units or debt issuances. Assumes no change in units outstanding 4) Listed partnership base fees of 125bps on increase in capitalization
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Notes/Assumptions: 1) Assumes no change in units outstanding
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 High end of target distribution growth range Average of target distribution growth range Low end of target distribution growth range
High ($400 mm) Base Case ($340 mm) Low ($270 mm)
($ millions)
INCENTIVE DISTRIBUTIONS
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($millions)
2016 Increase 2021 Base fees $ 912 $ 1,063 $ 1,985 IDR’s 86 254 340 Other fees 107 (7) 100 Fee revenues 1,105 1,310 2,425 Direct costs (445) (520) (970) Fee related earnings $ 660 $ 790 $ 1,455 20 x Fee related earnings $ 13,200 $ 15,800 $ 29,100
CAGR
Notes/Assumptions: 1) 2016 LTM fee related earnings as at June 30 2) 2021 hypothetical fee revenue. See slides 78-80 for details; assumes a 60% gross margin
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The carry we would generate on third-party capital, assuming the fund achieves the target return, annualized on a straight line basis
Carry generated and based on fund performance to date
Carry earned, excluding amounts subject to clawback. Basis for financial statement and FFO recognition
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($millions)
Accumulated Unrealized Carry Vintage Maturity1 BCP II $ 115 2006 2016 BIF I 150 2009 2022 BSREP I 275 2012 2023 Other funds 385 Various Various $ 925
Notes/Assumptions: 1) Maturity excludes optional extension periods
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2016 2021 2016 2021
CARRY ELIGIBLE CAPITAL
($billions)
TARGET CARRIED INTEREST
($millions)
$39 $83 $1,790 $830
+17% +17%
Notes/Assumptions: 1) 2021 projected annualized results. As at June 30 2) Target carried interest excludes direct costs
400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Existing Funds Target Funds
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($millions)
REALIZED CARRIED INTEREST
CUMULATIVE
Notes/Assumptions: 1) 2017-2026 estimated results based on existing and target funds. Realized carried interest determined by accumulated target carried interest over the life of a fund 2) Wind-up of existing fund capital distributed over the last three years of a 10-year fund
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2021 Multiple 2021 Base Value
($millions) ($billions, except per share amounts)
Asset Manager Fee related earnings $ 1,455 20x $ 29.1 Target carried interest, net 1,165 10x 11.7 Accumulated carried interest, net 5.0 45.8 Invested Capital Invested capital 13.5% growth 55.0 Leverage (8.4) 46.6 Total $ 92.4 Per Share $ 92
+22%
Notes/Assumptions: 1) Values are for illustrative purposes and based on various factors that may or may not materialize, including past performance metrics that may not be indicative of future performance 2) Estimated total return including dividends compared to public pricing per share on September 23, 2016 3) Projected annualized target carried interest, net assumes gross margin of 65%
Total Return
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($millions)
Fee Bearing Capital FRE Target Carry Add: Enhanced values Larger flagship funds 2017/2019 $ 5,000 $ 60 $ 105 2020/2021 10,000 130 215 Listed Partnership Equity issuances 10,000 230 – Distribution growth 5,000 150 – Performance income – 125 – Direct costs (280) (110) Net increase $ 30,000 $ 415 $ 210 Multiple 20x 10x Increase in valuation $ 8,300 $ 2,100
Notes/Assumptions: 1) Values are for illustrative purposes and based on various factors that may or may not materialize, including past performance metrics that may not be indicative of future performance 2) Listed partnership equity issuance of $600 million per annum, except for BBU of $200 million per annum for the next five years 3) Assumes listed partnerships distributions grow at the high end of the target range; BPY 8%, BIP 9%, BEP 9% 4) Direct costs assume a gross margin of 60% for fee revenues and 65% for target carried interest
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($billions, except per share amounts)
Increase 2021 Enhanced Values Asset Manager Fee related earnings $ 8.3 $ 37.4 Target carried interest, net 2.1 13.8 Accumulated carried interest 5.5 56.7 Invested Capital Invested capital (16.5% growth) 10.0 65.0 Leverage (8.4) 56.6 Total intrinsic value $ 113.3 Per Share $ 113
+27%
Notes/Assumptions: 1) Values are for illustrative purposes and based on various factors that may or may not materialize, including past performance metrics that may not be indicative of future performance 2) Estimated total return including dividends compared to public pricing per share on September 23, 2016
TOTAL RETURN
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Base fees are fixed rate contractual arrangements Capital is “sticky” – Private fund life of ~10 years – Listed partnership equity is perpetual IDR’s determined by visible distribution policies Costs are largely controllable
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Based on relatively lower volatility asset classes Supported by growth in tangible asset values Realization less dependent on IPO market value
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Underpinned largely by high-quality core/core+ type assets Cash flows consist mostly of visible and predictable distributions from listed partnerships
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Best-in-class investment performance Designing innovative funds for our clients Service excellence
Q&A
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This Investor Meeting material contains key operating and performance measures that we employ in analyzing and discussing our results. These measures include non-IFRS measures. We describe our key financial measures below and include a complete list of our operating and performance measures on pages 36 through 38 of our December 31, 2015 annual report.
amortization, and deferred income taxes, and includes disposition gains that are not recorded in net income as determined under IFRS. FFO also includes the company’s share of equity accounted investments’ funds from operations on a fully diluted basis.
preferred share distributions.
revenues and/or carried interests. Fee bearing capital includes both called (“invested”) and uncalled (“pledged” or “committed”) amounts.
exclude carried interest.
revenues.
bearing capital from both clients and ourselves and are typically earned on both called and uncalled amounts.
listed partnership above a pre-determined threshold.
Performance fees are not subject to “clawback” in future years.
determined minimum return. Carried interests are typically paid towards the end of the life of a fund after the capital has been returned to investors and may be subject to “clawback” until all investments have been monetized and minimum investment returns are sufficiently assured. This is referred to as realized carried interest. We defer recognition of carried interests in our financial statements until they are no longer subject to adjustment based on future events. Unlike fees and incentive distributions, we only include carried interests earned in respect of third- party capital when determining our segment results.
been monetized at the values recorded on that date. Carry generated refers to the change in unrealized carry during a specified period, adjusted for realized carry.
the assumption that we achieve the targeted returns on the private funds. It is determined by multiplying the target gross return of a fund, by the percentage carried interest, by the amount
distributions based on our listed partnerships current annual distribution policies, annualized transaction and performance fees equal a simple average of the last two years’ revenues.
Base Case
Quoted1 IFRS Listed investments Brookfield Property Partners 485 10,890 $ 14,780 $ Brookfield Renewable Partners 183 5,463 3,915 Brookfield Infrastructure Partners 102 3,081 1,638 Brookfield Business Partners 73 1,392 1,667 BPY Preferred Shares n/a 1,275 1,275 Norbord 35 688 237 Acadian Timber 8 96 81 Other listed Various 434 434 Financial assets Various 1,070 1,070 24,389 25,097 Unlisted investments2 Residential development 2,578 2,578 Energy marketing 1,076 1,076 Other 968 968 4,622 4,622 29,011 $ 29,719 $
AS AT JUN. 30, 2016 (MILLIONS)
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utilize public pricing or reading available external valuation inputs: − For listed investments where a publically quoted price is available, base case value is determined by the quoted market price multiplied by our holdings. − Unlisted or privately held investments are based on IFRS values − Our asset management franchise value is a mechanical calculation using multiples based on comparable companies trading values in the asset management industry and/or multiples utilized in analysts reports for comparable companies Base Case comparison to IFRS equity value 1) Quoted value based on June 30, 2015 public pricing 2) Quoted value utilizes IFRS value for unlisted assets