Broadband Cable & The Evolution of Technology Panel: - - PDF document

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Broadband Cable & The Evolution of Technology Panel: - - PDF document

Broadband Cable & The Evolution of Technology Panel: Obsolescence of Cable Television Assets: A Comprehensive Approach Panelists: Paul Chill, Kelly Necessary, Larry Vanston TFI Communications Technology TFI Communications Technology Asset


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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

Broadband Cable & The Evolution of Technology

Panel: Obsolescence of Cable Television Assets: A Comprehensive Approach Panelists: Paul Chill, Kelly Necessary, Larry Vanston

TFI Communications Technology TFI Communications Technology Asset Valuation Conference January 24-25, 2013 Marriott Courtyard Downtown, Austin, Texas

IBM Case

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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

IBM Credit Corporation v. NC Property Tax Commission

NC Court of Appeals

  • Appeal of Valuation of leased computers, Durham County, 2001 Tax Year
  • IBM I (2007)

NC C A PTC d i i “ h d h h C i i ’ i d h d f il d f

  • NC C.App. vacates PTC decision, “on the grounds that the Commission’s prior order had failed of

properly employ the burden of proof required…”

  • IBM meet “burden of production”, PTC did not meet “burden of persuasion”
  • IBM II (2010)
  • PTC gather no new evidence.
  • NC C.App. rules that PTC failed to comply with its previous decision (IBM I). Again remanded with

specific issues to consider.

  • IBM III (2012)
  • PTC claimed insufficient information due to IBM’s evidence not “reliable or credible” and

suggested hybrid valuation approach.

  • NC.App. rules PTC still did not meet burden of proof AND that hybrid approach does follow

acceptable income approach typically applied by NC

  • Remands with order of entry of a decision “… finding the property is valued at the value listed by

the taxpayer, IBM…”

IBM Credit Corporation v. NC Property Tax Commission

NC Court of Appeals

Quotable Quotes:

  • “Thus, we are here in 2012, in the ridiculous position of considering a third appeal

in the same case where the Tax Commission has twice failed to comply with the in the same case…where the Tax Commission has twice failed to comply with the Court’s mandate.

  • “While we could reject this new valuation approach only on the basis that it was

not raised at the hearing before the Tax Commission, as it is well‐settled that ‘law does not permit parties to swap horses between courts to get a better mount’.” Valuation Lessons??

  • Do tables adequately encompass obsolescence?
  • Can taxing jurisdiction rely on tables to defeat taxpayer opinion of value?
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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

Legacy Headend Model

Typical Hybrid Fiber‐Coaxial Network

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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

  • Receives the signal from dish antenna and passes it
  • n to the TV
  • How it works:

Satellite Receiver

How it works:

– De‐scrambles the encrypted signal received from satellite – Converts the signal into an analog format that a standard television can recognize – Extracts the individual channels from the larger satellite signal – Keeps track of pay‐per‐view programs and periodically phones a computer at the provider's headquarters to phones a computer at the provider s headquarters to communicate billing information

  • Example: Cisco PowerVu D9850
  • At the broadcast center, the high‐quality digital stream of video goes

through an MPEG encoder, which converts the programming to MPEG‐ 4 video of the correct size and format for the satellite receiver

Encoder

  • Encoding works in conjunction with compression to analyze each video

frame and eliminate redundant or irrelevant data.

  • After the video is compressed, the provider encrypts it to keep people

from accessing it for free.

– Encryption scrambles the digital data in such a way that it can only be decrypted (converted back into usable data) if the receiver has the correct decryption algorithm and security keys decryption algorithm and security keys

  • Example: Harmonic DiviCom
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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

Current Headend Model

CATV Spectrum (Legacy ‐ Today)

5 MHz 42 MHz 54 MHz 750 MHz

V i

Upstream Downstream

Legacy

Digital TV Services Analog TV Services

Voice & Data

Voice and Data

5 MHz 42 MHz 54 MHz 750 MHz

Upstream Downstream

Today / Near Future

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5 MHz 42 MHz 54 MHz 750 MHz

Digital TV Services

Voice & Data

Voice and Data

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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

CATV Spectrum – Next Generation

745 MHz = 28.6 Gb/s to 57.3 Gb/s

5 MHz 750 MHz

IP Services (Video, Data, Voice)

Upstream Downstream

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  • Traditional broadcast system (non‐SDV):

– Cable service providers send all the video channels to all the TVs connected to it – At a given point of time not all TV sets will be playing at the same time

Switched Digital Video (SDV) Equipment

At a given point of time not all TV sets will be playing at the same time – Further, not all channels will be playing at the same time – Therefore, this system is inefficient

  • Switched Digital Video Equipment: The cable service provider uses this

equipment to send only the channels customers are actually trying to watch

– More efficient – Saves bandwidth

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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

Digital Content Managers (DCMs)

  • Grooms and processes SDV streams

– Multiplexing – Combining multiple video streams into a single signal over a shared medium shared medium

  • Supports transcoding – the direct data conversion from one

encoding language to another (e.g. MPEG‐2 to MPEG‐4)

  • Allows for digital program insertion (splicing) of regional content or

advertisements onto existing video streams

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Video on Demand (VOD) Equipment

  • Allows users to select and watch/listen to video or audio content on

demand

  • Stream content through either a set‐top box, a computer or other

Stream content through either a set top box, a computer or other device

  • How it works:

– Set top box sends signal to network provider server for a particular video – The network server contacts the content provider video server holding the video library – Video server retrieves the video from archives – Video streamed back to the set top‐box

  • Example: Cisco Content Delivery Engine
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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

Headend Network Diagram

Outside Plant

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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

Hybrid Fiber‐Coax Topology

  • Node architecture: dividing homes into small neighborhood areas of

about 500 b d f b (“ ”) k

  • Hybrid fiber‐coax (“HFC”) network
  • Reliability, the number of amplifiers, noise

Headend

Neighborhood Neighborhood

Fiber Line Extender / Amplifier 16

Area C Neighborhood Area B Neighborhood Area A

Drop Feeder

Coax Hub / Fiber Node About 500 homes passed

Network Overview

Access Network Network

Regional Headend Metro Network Customer Premises Hub Regional Network Hub Hub

Access Network

Metro Regional National

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National Headend Metro Network Customer Premises Hub Regional Network National Backbone Network Hub Hub

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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

HFC Access &Transport Network

Hub

Node Fiber Cable <20 km (typical) Node

Metro Optical Network

Hub Hub

Node

HFC Serving Area 500 HP Hub Hub

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Node

Depreciation Factors: Coax Cable, Fiber Optic Cable, Electronics

Technological Substitution

  • For Coax Cable & Electronics: The technology substitution of

ib h lifi ( ) f Fiber to the Last Amplifier (FTTLA) for HFC

– Although FTTLA does not necessary replace all existing coaxial cable, it is likely to have significant impact

  • For Fiber Optic Cable: The technology substitution of full‐

spectrum fiber for standard fiber. Technological Obsolescence g

  • The declining relative efficiency of existing HFC assets due to

the continuing cost of HFC upgrades to maintain current market share in the face of increasing bandwidth demands. Physical mortality

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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

U.S. Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate

80% 90% 100% ds 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Percentage of Household 1.5 Mb/s 6 Mb/s 24 Mb/s 50 Mb/s All Broadband Households

Broadband Access

100 Mb/s & Above 0% 10% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year

Source: Technology Futures, Inc. 2011 Data Source: FCC. Speeds are based on DSL & FTTL

  • data. Data excludes mobile wireless broadband

Minimum Availability of 100 Mb/s & Above Broadband

80% 90% 100% ds Required 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Percentage of Household q Availability (100 Mb/s & Above) Broadband Subscribers (100 Mb/s & Above)

Broadband Access 20

0% 10% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year

Source: Technology Futures, Inc. 011

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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

Availability Requirement for Broadband Services and Forecasted FTTLA Adoption

80% 90% 100% ssed 24 Mb/s & Above 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Percentage of Homes Pas FTTx* Availability

Cable TV Coax 20

100 Mb/s & Above Availability 50 Mb/s & Above Availability 0% 10% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year

Source: Technology Futures, Inc. 011

*includes FFTLA and/or FTTH Availability

Forecasted Relative Efficiency of Existing HFC Assets

140% 160% 180% al Cumulative Capital Additions, P t f O i i l 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Perecentage of Origin Relative Efficiency

  • f Original

Investment Pct of Original Investment

Cable TV Coax 20

0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year

Source: Technology Futures, Inc. 011

Relative efficiency = Current Cost / (Current Cost + Upgrade Cost) = Current Cost / [Current Cost * (1 + Pct Upgrade Cost)] = 1 / (1 + Pct Upgrade Cost)

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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

Technology Survivor Curves and Relative Efficiency – NOT Considering Physical Mortality

80% 90% 100% nes 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Percentage of Access Li

Relative Efficiency

Survivors, Technology Substitution Only Survivors, adj. for Relative Efficiency

Cable TV Coax

(ARL = 6.2 years)

0% 10% 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year P y

Source: Technology Futures, Inc. 2011

(ARL = 7.0 years)

Applied only to assets subject to replacement: 100% for Electronics, 25% for Coax Cable

Percent Good Factor Calculations for Coaxial Cable assuming FTTLA

Coax Subj. to Replacement:

25% Iowa R3 P-Life: 10 Year Survivors Mortality Mortality Only Combined End HFC Coax Rel Eff. Adj Age Surivors RL SL Factor RL SL Factor 2010 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.5 99.95% 9.5 10.0 0.9500 7.3 7.8 0.9356 2011 99.5% 99.9% 100% 99.9% 1.5 99.70% 8.5 10.0 0.8504 6.8 8.3 0.8191 2012 98.3% 99.6% 100% 99.6% 2.5 99.08% 7.6 10.1 0.7519 6.3 8.8 0.7154 2013 95.9% 99.0% 99.7% 98.7% 3.5 97.88% 6.7 10.2 0.6557 5.7 9.2 0.6213 2014 91.1% 97.8% 95.0% 92.9% 4.5 95.83% 5.8 10.3 0.5630 5.2 9.7 0.5348 2015 82.1% 95.5% 86.9% 83.0% 5.5 92.68% 5.0 10.5 0.4750 4.6 10.1 0.4545 2016 67.5% 91.9% 78.0% 71.7% 6.5 88.18% 4.2 10.7 0.3928 4.0 10.5 0.3793 2017 48.8% 87.2% 68.3% 59.6% 7.5 81.96% 3.5 11.0 0.3173 3.4 10.9 0.3094 2018 30.4% 82.6% 61.0% 50.4% 8.5 73.31% 2.8 11.3 0.2503 2.8 11.3 0.2462 2019 16.7% 79.2% 55.3% 43.8% 9.5 61.69% 2.3 11.8 0.1935 2.3 11.8 0.1916 2020 8.5% 77.1% 50.7% 39.1% 10.5 47.37% 1.8 12.3 0.1475 1.8 12.3 0.1467 2021 4 1% 76 0% 46 9% 35 7% 11 5 31 96% 1 5 13 0 0 1121 1 4 12 9 0 1118 2021 4.1% 76.0% 46.9% 35.7% 11.5 31.96% 1.5 13.0 0.1121 1.4 12.9 0.1118 2022 1.9% 75.5% 43.8% 33.1% 12.5 18.18% 1.2 13.7 0.0858 1.2 13.7 0.0856 2023 0.9% 75.2% 41.2% 31.0% 13.5 8.54% 0.9 14.4 0.0645 0.9 14.4 0.0645 2024 0.4% 75.1% 39.1% 29.4% 14.5 3.16% 0.7 15.2 0.0437 0.7 15.2 0.0437 2025 0.2% 75.0% 37.4% 28.1% 15.5 0.52% 0.5 16.0 0.0313 0.5 16.0 0.0313

Node and cable electronics are similar except 100% of assets are subject to replacement and mortality P-Lives and Iowa curve shapes are different.

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Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference Jan 24-25, 2013 Please contact Mr. Chill, Ms. Necessary, Dr. Vanston or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.

QUESTIONS?