Brexit, England and the Future of the Tory ry Party Ailsa Henderson - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

This Other Eden: Brexit, England and the Future of the Tory ry Party

Ailsa Henderson @ailsa_henderson Richard Wyn Jones @RWynJones

2 October 2018

Brexit and the Union

• Brexit consequentials
• What type of union is this?
• The policy union
• The sharing union
• With whom will we share?
• Who gets fair share?
• Challenges for the Conservative Party

The Future of f England Surveys, 1

• Most detailed body of research into political attitudes in England
• Conducted by University of Edinburgh and Cardiff University team; all

fieldwork by YouGov (NI by Lucid Talk)

• Surveys conducted in 2011-2012, 2014-2018
• 2014 and 2018 have surveys in England, Scotland and Wales
• 2018 samples England 2741, Scotland 1502, Wales 2016, Northern Ireland 1089
• Several key findings in previous work…

The Future of f England Surveys, 2

England and its Two Unions

• Considerable dissatisfaction with the EU
• But also unhappiness with how England treated within the UK, and ‘Devo-anxiety’ –

sense that constitutional change has unfairly advantaged others, particularly Scots

• Close relationship between attitudes to the two unions AND close relationship

between attitudes to both unions and an English identity that has become more prominent

• All findings reinforced and supported by latest evidence

Brexit consequentials

Brexit: is it worth it?

47 53 32 68 46 54 33 67 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Worth it to take back control Not worth it

Jeopardising peace in Northern Ireland

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland 52 49 43 57 51 49 46 54 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Worth it to take back control Not worth it

Yes vote in indyref2

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Price worth paying for Brexit: peace in NI

83 10 75 12 84 10 87 1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Leavers Remainers

By Brexit vote

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland 75 25 27 41 43 46 3 70 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 x not British British not x

By national identity

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Price worth paying for Brexit: Yes in indyref2

88 15 71 27 88 15 86 12 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Leavers Remainers

By Brexit vote

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland 75 27 56 40 50 52 31 70 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 x not British British not x

By national identity

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Policy union

Support for policy uniformity

80 77 75 72 70 68 51 60 51 60 57 79 69 63 70 61 47 52 47 61 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Punishment of young

• ffenders

Prescription charges Paying for old care Tuition fees Unemployment benefit

Should be the same across the UK

Support for policy uniformity

80 77 75 72 70 68 51 60 51 60 57 79 69 63 70 61 47 52 47 61 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Punishment of young

• ffenders

Prescription charges Paying for old care Tuition fees Unemployment benefit

Should be the same across the UK

72 68 43 59 71 69 75 71 50 64 76 73 70 67 43 59 70 69 83 79 51 70 80 77 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mobile phone roaming charges Health insurance for holiday makers Free mvmt of unskilled workers (eg farm labourers) Free mvmt of skilled workers (eg drs) Food hygiene standards Waste policy for litter on beaches

Should be the same between EU and UK (after it leaves)

The take back control paradox? ENGLAND

72 71 69 68 59 43 80 83 82 79 76 63 68 63 62 62 48 27 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Mobile phone roaming charges Food hygiene Litter control Health insurance Movement of skilled workers Movement of unskilled workers

Should be the same between the UK and the EU (after it leaves)

All Remain Leave

The take back control paradox? LEAVE voters

68 63 62 62 48 27 69 63 59 61 49 27 65 63 61 60 46 24 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mobile phone roaming charges Food hygiene Litter control Health insurance Movement of skilled workers Movement of unskilled workers

Should be the same between the UK and the EU (after it leaves)

England Scotland Wales

The take back control paradox? Conservative voters

70 66 65 65 51 29 72 68 64 65 55 33 70 64 62 63 50 28 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mobile phone roaming charges Food hygiene Litter control Health insurance Movement of skilled workers Movement of unskilled workers

Should be the same between the UK and the EU (after it leaves)

England Scotland Wales

Sharing union

Who will share …?

49 29 42 38 31 24 15 17 15 47 26 38 29 15 55 44 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

With the whole of the UK With England With Scotland With Wales With Northern Ireland

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Who will share …? Conservative voters

44 17 37 29 31 24 8 17 15 57 26 15 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

With the whole of the UK With England With Scotland With Wales With Northern Ireland

England Scotland Wales

Who gets LESS than their fair share…?

29 6 12 10 7 39 30 24 7 19 50 21 17 28 26 34 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

England gets less Scotland gets less Wales gets less NI gets less

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Union of f ignorance?

38 40 44 46 26 23 38 38 26 34 25 41 12 18 20 9 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Don't know about England Don't know about Scotland Don't know about Wales Don't know about NI

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Conclusions

• Brexit serves to highlight how much voters value (or not) certain aspects of the

union

• Losing Scotland, and peace in NI seen as price worth paying for Brexit (esp for Leave voters

and Conservative voters)

• Policy union?: Greater support for policy uniformity between UK and EU than

within UK (even for Leave voters, Conservative voters across GB)

• Sharing union? No particular support for sharing resources with particular parts
• f UK
• Union of grievance (and at times union of ignorance)
• Challenges for Conservatives
• Divided in terms of vision of union (sharing)
• And, on some questions, don’t seem particularly unionist (on policy uniformity or sharing, or

Scottish independence)

• Their own supporters want policy uniformity with the EU once the UK leaves