Bracing for the Demographic Tsunami Second Roundtable on Seniors - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Bracing for the Demographic Tsunami

Second Roundtable on Seniors Transportation

Hosted by the Alberta Motor Association and the Edmonton Seniors Coordinating Council

Thursday November 29, 2007

Edmonton

Glenn R. Miller, FCIP, RPP

Outline

• Yesterday’s preoccupation: planning for the car
• Today’s challenge: seniors and their mobility
• Tomorrow’s reality: the demographic tsunami
• Mobility impaired - how aging impacts driving, transit use and pedestrian

safety

• What in the world are we thinking?
• Examples from the EU, UK, Japan, and Canada
• Part 2 - Integrated design principles to guide

new planning and community retrofits

We focused on the commute for 60 years..

…and built car-dependent suburbs

The steady expansion of auto-dependent communities

Single Detached Homes Constructed vs. Automobile Sales

Source: CANSIM Series #V15819065, Statistics Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales 63‐007‐XWE

4.0 5.0 6.0 es Constructed n) 1 2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 mobiles Sold ) 1.0 2.0 3.0 le Detached Home (Million 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Number of Autom (Million 0.0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Singl 0.0 0.2 N Car Sales Single Detached Homes

Where seniors live (2001)

City Type Housing Type

Rural Areas 23%

Semi‐detached / Townhomes 10% Apartments 28%

Urban Areas (100,000 or more) Urban Areas (less than 100 000) 23%

Single‐Detached

more) 60% 100,000) 17%

Mobile Homes 1% Homes 61%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2001

Four key age cohorts

Age Category 55-64 “Seniors in training” 65-74 Young-old 75-84 Old 85+ Old-old

Defining Mobility

“The freedom to move is life itself”

L Ling Suen

* The ability to travel where and when we want *

• L. Ling Suen

* Having enough information about our travel options * * Knowing how to use those options * * Having the means to pay for those options * g p y p

Putting aging into context: The mobility continuum

The quality of mobility

The “mobility rich” The intermediate Group with lack of The “mobility poor” mobility rich group resources mobility poor

Increasing age

High outdoor mobility and satisfaction with mobility Low outdoor mobility and dissatisfaction with mobility with mobility with mobility

Source: The MOBILATE Project

The Demographic Tsunami

45

2005

0.67 billion over 60 today, heading to 1.5 billion by 2050

30 35 40

ge (%)

2035

10 15 20 25

Percentag

5 10

Italy Japan Germany Greece Begium Spain Portugal UK Ukraine France

Country

Source: UN 2006 Population Revision Database

Canada’s demographics

Aging population will see 65+ more than double from 4.1 to 8.7 million in next 25 years

Source: “Canada’s Aging Population” by Health Canada and the Interdepartmental Committee on Aging and Seniors Issues, 2002

The Demographic Tsunami 1961

1 Canadian in 14 is 65+

The Demographic Tsunami 2006

1 Canadian in 8 is 65+

The Demographic Tsunami 2026

1 Canadian in 5 is 65+

The Demographic Tsunami 2031

1 Canadian in 4 is 65+

How is Canada aging?

Projected Population for Canada by Age Group in 2031

3 000 00 2,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00 1000s) 1,000.00 1,500.00 Population (1 0.00 500.00 t

• 4

1 t

• 1

4 2 t

• 2

4 3 t

• 3

4 4 t

• 4

4 5 t

• 5

4 6 t

• 6

4 7 t

• 7

4 8 t

• 8

4 9 t

• 9

4 n d

• v

e r 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 a n Age

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo23c.htm

How is Canada aging?

In 2031, there will be 1.12 million Canadians over the age of 85 The combined populations of: The combined populations of: Québec City, QC 715 000 Victoria, BC 330 000

• St. John’s, NFLD

715,000 330,000 181,000

+ +

A perspective on Edmonton

• % of seniors in City proper higher than region
• There will be many more older Edmontonians

There will be many more older Edmontonians

– Between now and 2030: Age Total G th Growth

65-69 129% 70 74 141% 70-74 141% 75-79 140% 80 84 136% 80-84 136% 85+ 158%

These numbers are based on City of Edmonton forecasts (Applications Management Consulting Ltd., 2005).

More older drivers who have greater expectations

• f mobility

Number of Licensed Drivers by Gender and by Age, 2004 Age Group Males Females Total 55 – 64 1,545,737 1,516,675 3,062,412 65 + 1,424,635 1,354,074 2,778,709

Source: Canadian Motor Vehicle Traffic Collision Statistics, 2004

More older drivers than ever before

• Accident rates decrease 65+ but historically so do kilometers driven
• Accident rates & fatalities per km driven increase for 75+
• Fatal accident rate increases dramatically for 75+
• Older drivers account for higher proportion of all traffic fatalities

Projected fatalities for senior women drivers on the increase

• Projected fatalities for senior women drivers on the increase

Source: US Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, 2004

Driving as an assumed “right” or privilege?

• Driving is efficient, convenient and easy
• Symbolizes competence, self-efficacy and

i d d independence

• Most seniors stop driving years before they die
• Most self-regulate
• Most self-regulate

Consequences of losing license

• Functional – competence to access other means of

mobility E ti l l t d t f lf lit f lif

• Emotional – related to sense of self, quality of life
• Balance between independence and engagement

drastically altered drastically altered

What kind of accidents are seniors involved with?

• Left turns against traffic
• Missed signals and signs
• Failure to yield right of way

y g y

• Intersection collisions

Mental challenges for older drivers

Increased stresses for older drivers

• Operational decisions
• Tactical decisions
• Strategic decisions

“Functional deficits” increase as people age

• Reaction times are slower

Reaction times are slower

• Harder to multi-task
• Processing information more difficult as memory loss occurs

Problems faced by older drivers

• Impaired attention
• Less efficient working-memory
• Reduced reaction times

COGNITIVE

• Slower ability to process information

L f li b t th fl ibilit iti it

• Loss of limb strength, flexibility, sensitivity or

range of motion

• Coordination/dexterity

PHYSICAL

Problems faced by older drivers

• Increased sensitivity to glare

VISION

• Increased sensitivity to glare
• Adjustment from light to dark
• Decreased useful field of view (UFOV)
• Decreased ability to change focus
• Harder to distinguish objects of similar colour
• Harder to judge distances of other vehicles & their speed
• Less efficient visual search
• Hearing deficits in 75% of those 75+
• Decreased ability to respond to auditory cues

HEARING

Driving with Dementia

By 2028 in Ontario there will be more than 98,000 drivers with dementia

• of all activities in daily life that are adversely affected by

dementia, driving is the deadliest g

• Researchers propose improved access and subsidies for specialized on-road testing
• Increased support and transportation alternatives to cope with not driving
• Increased support and transportation alternatives to cope with not driving
• Research into better tools for office-based driving assessment
• Improved physician education about dementia recognition and driving assessment

Legal responsibilities & impacts

• DMV makes decision to revoke drivers licenses

O

• In Ontario tests required at age 80 - in Alberta, medical report and eye test

for drivers 75+

• In-car testing only for marginal cases
• Physicians in most provinces have duty to report drivers at risk
• Physicians share liability when they fail to report
• Medical model of fitness to drive makes physicians arbiters of public safety

Transit not always an option for older citizens

• Walk to vehicle pickup under all weather conditions
• Board, remain standing, or be seated
• Handle fare payment plans, rules, and options

p y p p

• Grasp stanchions or carry packages
• Transfer between vehicles and modes
• Enter and exit vehicle rapidly

PHYSICAL

• Recognize directions, landmarks and destination
• Comprehend spoken or written directions and recognize destinations

COGNITIVE

• Comprehend spoken or written directions and recognize destinations

H di ti d t

• Hear directions and announcements
• See vehicle route number signs and destination

SENSORY

Life as an older pedestrian can be hazardous

Pedestrian Fatalities per 1000 people - Canada, 2001

4.0 3.7 2.5 3.0 3.5

per 1000

0 8 1.9 1.8 0 8 1.1 1.4 0.9 0 5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Fatalities p

0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.5 00-04 05-09 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Age Group

Source: Statistics Canada, Pedestrian Fatalities and Injuries, 1992-2001

Life as an older pedestrian can be hazardous: A Tragic Collision

• On Friday November 22, 2007 an

ld l l (80 & 77) k elderly couple (80 & 77) was struck by the bus they were trying to catch

• En route to Downtown
• En route to Downtown

Toronto from their apartment on Don Mills Road for appointment with eye-

Toronto Star

surgeon

• Decision to take shortest route

linked to recent knee surgery

Toronto Sun

linked to recent knee surgery

The Globe and Mail

D Mill / D V ll P k C id D Mill / D V ll P k C id Don Mills/ Don Valley Parkway Corridors Don Mills/ Don Valley Parkway Corridors

735 Don Mills Road 735 Don Mills Road 735 Don Mills Road 735 Don Mills Road

School School

Th N i hb h d t D Mill d O l Th N i hb h d t D Mill d O l The Neighbourhood at Don Mills and Overlea The Neighbourhood at Don Mills and Overlea

ROUTE 25 ROUTE 25 ROUTE 25 ROUTE 25

BUS STOP BUS STOP

Th N i hb h d t D Mill d O l Th N i hb h d t D Mill d O l The Neighbourhood at Don Mills and Overlea The Neighbourhood at Don Mills and Overlea

BUS STOP BUS STOP

Yellow Route: 80m Yellow Route: 80m Green Route: 220m

BUS STOP

Di t f B ildi t B St Di t f B ildi t B St Distance from Building to Bus Stops Distance from Building to Bus Stops

1. Couple leaves building and approaches Don Mills Road 2. Couple identifies shortest route to bus (wife’s recent knee surgery) 3 Co ple sees b s

BUS STOP

3. Couple sees bus approaching. 4. Couple flags/waves at bus requesting it to stop then step onto road and begin

BUS STOP

p g cross three lanes of traffic 5. Bus fails to notice couple, perhaps looking at the approaching stop and driveway on its right Couple is struck

BUS STOP

The significance of mobility

The people who move, walk, drive, travel, etc. and their living conditions differ and are subject to permanent change

• Health status, economic and social resources, needs and motives
• Possible loss of function of the senses, declining motor performance

and growing prevalence of chronic illness and growing prevalence of chronic illness

• Retirement frees up a great amount of time and energy

G hild l h d i h l f l

• Grown children leave home and one must cope with loss of close

relationships All these changes demand sensitivity to mobility issues if seniors All these changes demand sensitivity to mobility issues if seniors are to maintain quality of life

The MOBILATE Project

What in the world are we thinking: WHO

Policy Framework for Active Ageing Global Age-friendly Cities Project:

• Recognize the great diversity among older

persons

• Promote their inclusion and contribution in

all areas of community life

• Respect their decisions and lifestyle

Respect their decisions and lifestyle choices

• Anticipate and respond flexibly to aging

related needs and preferences

Dealing creatively with a very large problem Penns l ania’s Approach Pennsylvania’s Approach

What in the world are we thinking: The European Commission

Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Conference, 2006

What in the world are we thinking: Germany’s MOBILATE Cohort Study

What in the world are we thinking: Germany’s MOBILATE Cohort Study

What in the world are we thinking: Germany’s MOBILATE Cohort Study

What in the world are we thinking: German Study

What in the world are we thinking: The UK Economic and Social Research Council

Growing Older Program (GO): 24 research projects focused on how to extend the quality of life in

• ld age

Defining and Measuring Quality of Life (6 projects)

• Defining and Measuring Quality of Life (6 projects)
• Inequalities in Quality of Life (5)
• The Role of Technology and the Built Environment (1)

gy ( )

• Healthy and Productive Ageing (3)
• Family and Support Networks (6)
• Participation and Activity in Later Life (3)

What in the world are we thinking: UK’s Office of Science and Technology

Foresight Program S t i bl E M t d th B ilt E i t Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment To explore how the UK built environment could evolve to help manage the transition over the next five decades to help manage the transition over the next five decades to secure, sustainable, low carbon energy systems that meet the needs of society, the requirements of the economy, and the expectation of individuals. Number of centenarians in UK in 2041 = 45,000 = the capacity of Chelsea Stadium

UK’s “Full Quality Package”

Trained t ff staff Improved signage Para-transit routes Marketing/ Publicity

Japan’s “Universal Society”

Commitment to universal design

• Seamless transport systems
• Safe and comfortable communities for everyone
• Ubiquitous computing environments

Peterborough, Ontario

• Peterborough led the way to implement

compliance with new disability legislation

• Used public buildings to set standard

Used public buildings to set standard

• Engaged stakeholders to study “paths of travel”

UniverCity development plan:

4,500 homes, 10,000 residents and 250,000 sf commercial all on 160 acres

Four Cornerstones of a Sustainable Community Sustainable Community

Environment Economy Education Equity

Environment:

TONE

Environment: Walking & Biking

CORNERS

The community design follows smart growth principles, providing easy access for residents to get from home to school, work, recreation and shopping, along tree-lined th d bik th pathways and bike paths.

Environment:

TONE

Environment: Transportation

CORNERS

The community is served by a comprehensive public transportation system, including a shuttle service to the nearby SkyTrain station, car -sharing cooperatives, and Canada’s first community transit pass program.

Equity

STONE

U i Ci h b d i d h l h f d

Equity

CORNERS

UniverCity has been designed as a healthy, safe and highly livable community for all.

Equity:

STONE

Equity: Housing Choices

CORNERS

The community offers a wide range of housing types and tenures including townhouses, non-market housing, and apartments for sale and rent. housing, and apartments for sale and rent.

Equity:

STONE

Equity: Secondary Suites

CORNERS

In up to half of the residences, the zoning permits “legalized secondary suites”– perfect for students, guests, or relatives.

Equity:

STONE

Equity: Amenities

CORNERS

All residents will belong to the UniverCity Community Association with access to SFU recreational facilities and amenities. recreational facilities and amenities.

Front: Back:

Economy

STONE

UniverCity will include local shops and services, and

Economy

CORNER

employment opportunities.

Economy:

RSTONE

Economy: A Place to Work

CORNER

Nearby employment opportunities include the university (30,000 students and the largest employer in Burnaby) and an expanded, award winning, Discovery k ( h k) Park (SFU’s research park).

University Highlands:

Th Hi hl d ill id 2 000 h d i l

University Highlands:

• ur first neighbourhood

The Highlands will provide up to 2,000 homes and a commercial ‘High Street’ providing local retail services.

University Slopes

Special streets that mix bikes, pedestrians and cars.

University Slopes

The Goal: Maintaining Mobility, Permitting Access, and Fostering Engagement

This will require continued efforts to:

• Improve health, well-being and independence in later life
• Facilitate the participation of older Canadians in economic and social life
• Strengthen the supportive environments within communities
• Sustain government programs benefiting Canadians of all ages

Source: “Canada’s Aging Population” by Health Canada and the Interdepartmental Committee on Aging and Seniors Issues, 2002

Need for integration

"Design for the young and you exclude the old; design for the old and you include the young."

• Bernard Isaacs

Director of the Birmingham Centre for Applied Gerontology

• Providing fully accessible public transport options

g pp gy

• Accessible shops and services within easy reach
• Reducing traffic volume, speed and density

M t l id ti ll t ffi ti i t

• Mutual consideration among all traffic participants

For further information about our research:

Please contact: ill @ b gmiller@canurb.com (416) 365-0816 x 284 www canurb com/aging www.canurb.com/aging