Boyertown Area School District Demographics, Enrollment Projections, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Boyertown Area School District

Demographics, Enrollment Projections, and Building Utilization Scenarios, Update #2

Prepared By Montgomery Educational Consultants, Inc

February 19, 2019

Agenda

Introductions/Context/Process

• Dr. Dana T. Bedden, Superintendent

Project Overview and New Developments Bill Montgomery Montgomery Educational Consultants Enrollment Projections and Scenarios Tim Lambert Absolute Technology, Inc. Scenario Outcomes Team Summary & Possible Next Steps

• Dr. Dana T. Bedden, Superintendent

Board Comments/Questions Boyertown School Board Community Comments Please have index card and come to mic

Rightsizing Project Team

• Dr. Dana T. Bedden, Superintendent
• Ms. Marybeth Torchia, Assistant Superintendent of Student Services
• Mr. Michael Stoudt, Acting Assistant to the Superintendent for Academics
• Dr. Mia Kim, Chief Human Resources Officer
• Ms. Stephanie Landis, Principal - Middle School West
• Mr. Andy Ruppert, Principal - Middle School East
• Mr. William Gasper, Facility Engineer
• Mr. Steve Missimer, Transportation Supervisor
• Ms. Cindi Bartholomew, Pupil Accounting Specialist
• Ms. Lisa Shade, Pupil Accounting Specialist
• Mr. Tim Lambert, Absolute Technology, Inc
• Mr. Bill Montgomery, Montgomery Educational Consultants

Introduction/Context

• One Boyertown/Who We Are
• Rightsizing – efficient and effective use of facilities to support teaching

and learning

• Educational and Equitable School Facilities: attending public school

in a healthy, safe, educationally adequate, environmentally sustainable, and financially efficient facility

• Challenges – inequity, projected overcrowding (ES & MS) and fiscal
• Points of Pride – BASD Pride/Great Return On Investment

Boyertown Area School District Superintendent Performance Goal

Goal: Effective Use of School Facilities to Support Teaching and Learning Task: Provide the School Board with an elementary and middle school enrollment and demographic study along with recommendations for rightsizing. Proposed Full Implementation: 2020/2021 SY

https://www.boyertownasd.org/cms/lib/PA01916192/Centricity/Domain/410/Pennsylvania%20Superintendent%20Evaluation%20- %20Boyertown%202018-2019%20Goals.pdf

Profile

• Geographic size: 97.9 square miles
• One (1) Senior High School, Two (2) Middle Schools, Seven (7) Elementary Schools

Administrative - 30, 3% Professional

• 511, 50%

Classified - 486, 47% Total Staffing – 1,027 Asian, 1.60% Black, 1.70% Hispanic, 3.60% White, 90.60% Other, 2.50%

Male – 51.5% Female – 48.5%

Total Enrollment – 6,784

STAFFING: ENROLLMENT:

• 24.4% economically disadvantages
• 20.0% Special Education

Percent Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity

Serving: Colebrookdale, Douglass, Earl and Washington Townships and the boroughs

• f Bally, Bechtelsville and Boyertown in Berks County plus the townships of Douglass,

New Hanover and Upper Frederick in Montgomery County.

Who We Are? One Boyertown!

Fiscal Status/Challenge

Fiscal Challenge: Deficits over Past 4 Years and 18/19 Projected

(1,195,768) (1,293,965) (2,286,352) (2,178,756) (2,147,985) (4,676,039) (3,215,431) (3,197,894) (3,631,687) (3,584,859) (5,000,000) (4,500,000) (4,000,000) (3,500,000) (3,000,000) (2,500,000) (2,000,000) (1,500,000) (1,000,000) (500,000)

• 18/19 Projected

17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 Actual Deficit (with tax increase) Deficit if there were no tax increase

Fiscal Challenge: Current - 5 Year Projections (with tax increases)

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 $ Amount % Change $ Amount % Change $ Amount % Change $ Amount % Change $ Amount % Change REVENUE Local 81,718,936 3.57% 84,454,041 3.35% 87,300,793 3.37% 90,263,217 3.39% 93,345,511 3.41% State 37,211,174

• 0.82%

37,911,061 1.88% 38,658,239 1.97% 39,497,599 2.17% 40,305,229 2.04% Federal 1,310,000

• 1.75%

1,310,000 0.00% 1,310,000 0.00% 1,310,000 0.00% 1,310,000 0.00% Transfers In 102,500

• 4.65%

102,500 0.00% 102,500 0.00% 102,500 0.00% 102,500 0.00% TOTAL REVENUE 120,342,610 2.10% 123,777,602 2.85% 127,371,532 2.90% 131,173,316 2.98% 135,063,240 2.97% EXPENDITURES Salary and Benefit Costs 89,108,609 1.74% 91,937,142 3.17% 95,125,029 3.47% 98,564,679 3.62% 102,011,005 3.50% Other 33,044,004 6.16% 34,798,084 5.31% 36,717,529 5.52% 38,758,600 5.56% 40,751,775 5.14% TOTAL EXPENDITURES 122,152,613 2.90% 126,735,226 3.75% 131,842,558 4.03% 137,323,279 4.16% 142,762,780 3.96% SURPLUS/DEFICIT (1,810,003) (2,957,624) (4,471,026) (6,149,963) (7,699,540) BEGINNING FUND BALANCE 10,253,512 8,443,509 5,485,885 1,014,859

• USE OF FUND BALANCE

(1,810,003) (2,957,624) (4,471,026) (1,014,859)

• ENDING FUND BALANCE

8,443,509 5,485,885 1,014,859

• CUMULATIVE AMOUNT IN EXCESS OF

FUND BALANCE

• (5,135,104)

(12,834,644)

Fiscal Challenge: Current - 5 Year Projections (with no tax increase 2021 - 2024)

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 $ Amount % Change $ Amount % Change $ Amount % Change $ Amount % Change $ Amount % Change REVENUE Local 81,718,936 3.57% 82,391,465 0.82% 83,075,810 0.83% 83,771,912 0.84% 84,479,717 0.84% State 37,211,174

• 0.82%

37,911,061 1.88% 38,658,239 1.97% 39,497,599 2.17% 40,305,229 2.04% Federal 1,310,000

• 1.75%

1,310,470 0.04% 1,310,470 0.00% 1,310,470 0.00% 1,310,470 0.00% Transfers In 102,500

• 4.65%

102,500 0.00% 102,500 0.00% 102,500 0.00% 102,500 0.00% TOTAL REVENUE 120,342,610 2.10% 121,715,496 1.14% 123,147,019 1.18% 124,682,481 1.25% 126,197,916 1.22% EXPENDITURES Salary and Benefit Costs 89,108,609 1.74% 91,937,142 3.17% 95,125,029 3.47% 98,564,679 3.62% 102,011,005 3.50% Other 33,044,004 6.16% 34,798,084 5.31% 36,717,529 5.52% 38,758,600 5.56% 40,751,775 5.14% TOTAL EXPENDITURES 122,152,613 2.90% 126,735,226 3.75% 131,842,558 4.03% 137,323,279 4.16% 142,762,780 3.96% SURPLUS/DEFICIT (1,810,003) (5,019,730) (8,695,539) (12,640,798) (16,564,864) BEGINNING FUND BALANCE 10,253,512 8,443,509 3,423,779

• USE OF FUND BALANCE

(1,810,003) (5,019,730) (3,423,779)

• ENDING FUND BALANCE

8,443,509 3,423,779

• CUMULATIVE AMOUNT IN EXCESS OF

FUND BALANCE

• (5,271,760)

(17,912,558) (34,477,422)

Points of Pride

• 2019 Niche ranked BASD 3,351 out of 11,861 public school districts in the nation - Top

28.3%

• 2018 School Digger Rankings – BASD rated 4 stars out of 5
• 2018 School Digger Rankings – BASD ranked 116 of 601 school districts in PA (includes

Charters) – Top 19.3%

• 2018 US News & World Report Best High Schools ranked BASH 2160 out of 20,500 in the

nation of data reviewed (Silver Medal School – Top 10.55%)

• 2018 US News and World Report Best High ranked BASH 79 out of 677 high schools in

PA - Top 11.6%

• 2018 School Digger Rankings – all elementary schools rated with 3 stars out of 5 or better
• f the 1530 elementary schools rated in PA
• 2018 School Digger Rankings – both middle schools ranked in top 12% of 861 middle

schools rated in PA

• 2018 School Digger Rankings – high school ranked in top 11% of 673 high schools rated in

PA

Montgomery Educational Consultants, Inc.

Montgomery Educational Consultants, Inc.

Montgomery Educational Consultants (MEC) Bill Montgomery (Primary)

• 44+ years experience in education
• 20 years as a public school Board

Member & Delaware County I.U. Board Member

Absolute Technology, Inc (ATI) Tim Lambert (Director of I.T.)

20+ years experience in education

• Enrollment Projections
• Geographic Information Systems
• Long Range Planning Scenarios
• Databases and Application Development

Recent Projects:

• Norristown School District (approx. 7,000 students)
• Rose Tree Media School District (approx. 3,800 students)
• Upper Darby School District (approx. 12,000 students
• Richmond County School System (approx. 32,000 students)

Project Review, Enrollment Projections, Scenarios and Outcomes

Project Review

Large parcels of land purchased for residential developments Need for an enrollment projection and demographic study District can adequately plan for future student capacity needs At least twenty-five new, current or planned residential communities PEL Report 2014-2015, indicated a potential of thirty-six developments New residential developments in the area will increase the number of live births and students moving into the School District

• Single Family Homes : 2,913
• Townhomes : 306
• 3,219 Potential New Units (built after start of 2018/19 SY)
• 300 new units will be occupied by start of 2019/20 SY

Choosing BASD!

Washington ES

• Construction: 3
• Planning: 1
• TBD: 3

Colebrookdale ES

• TBD: 1

Boyertown ES

• Planning: 3

Gilbertsville ES

• Construction: 4
• Planning: 6

New Hanover-Upper Frederick ES

• Construction: 2
• Planning: 3
• TBD: 1

New Developments Overview

Enrollment Projections*

Year K 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Total 2009/10 495 557 455 530 534 593 516 534 569 563 588 542 514 6,990 2010/11 492 527 566 481 549 551 584 520 546 584 574 583 542 7,099 2011/12 512 527 529 574 494 551 574 594 521 535 588 569 576 7,144 2012/13 482 574 517 545 578 492 548 583 593 536 538 579 565 7,130 2013/14 492 519 568 534 545 590 506 559 591 589 545 518 576 7,132 2014/15 489 525 509 584 537 531 587 519 558 578 582 522 510 7,031 2015/16 423 524 527 518 579 547 535 580 521 547 588 563 502 6,954 2016/17 453 462 527 531 523 575 554 548 578 521 543 546 562 6,923 2017/18 453 484 465 537 546 526 588 559 558 582 531 503 546 6,878 2018/19 454 503 483 480 552 558 538 585 554 568 548 487 516 6,826 2019/20 480 505 510 503 495 565 572 540 578 553 560 515 487 6,863 2020/21 466 522 510 527 520 500 572 574 537 579 548 532 515 6,902 2021/22 512 507 525 525 539 526 516 577 573 540 574 518 532 6,964 2022/23 500 551 517 548 542 553 538 517 577 576 536 545 518 7,018 2023/24 518 543 561 544 565 552 568 544 515 580 573 504 545 7,111 2024/25 508 555 555 578 558 572 563 574 542 516 575 539 504 7,139 2025/26 512 543 562 564 581 567 585 564 569 543 513 546 539 7,188 2026/27 509 548 555 575 583 589 576 586 564 571 542 486 546 7,230 2027/28 519 544 550 563 587 589 598 581 583 565 570 511 486 7,247 2028/29 505 553 549 562 575 588 602 603 582 583 563 540 511 7,317

* Includes new student projections for all developments. Enrollment history provided as of October 1st of each School Year.

Elementary School Students

2018/19 ES Students 2018/19 ES Catchment

Elementary School Students (Zoomed)

Scenarios

Current / Projected Utilization

Catchment – geographic area from which students are eligible to attend a local school

Current School

• Proj. 2023/24

School Current Catchment*

• Proj. 2023/24

Catchment Name

Student Capacity Students Util. Students Util. Students Util. Students Util. Boyertown ES 700 445 64% 473 68% 423 60% 468 67% Colebrookdale ES 350 291 83% 330 94% 255 73% 276 79% Earl ES 350 246 70% 216 62% 228 65% 222 63% Gilbertsville ES 700 689 98% 781 112% 813 116% 959 137% New Hanover-Upper Frederick ES 700 675 96% 718 103% 581 83% 518 74% Pine Forge ES 350 242 69% 251 72% 234 67% 228 65% Washington ES 700 483 69% 552 79% 455 65% 545 78% Boyertown MS-East 1,050 895 85% 917 87% 906 86% 863 82% Boyertown MS-West 860 782 91% 710 83% 746 87% 733 85% Boyertown HS 2,383 2,119 89% 2,202 92% 2,089 88% 2,114 89%

* 137 Students not plotted. No catchment assignment.

NPUs

Neighborhood Planning Units (NPU) identify a geographic area. They are comprised of a continuous part of the School District with associated attributes, for example encompassing a

• neighborhood. They often utilize

natural and man made boundaries as limits and the size takes into consideration both physical area and number of students. NPUs allow for ease of analysis and planning by allowing the units to be evaluated independently as well as having the ability to move them and define new scenarios.

Scenario 1

• Goals:

○ Balance building utilization (capacity vs enrollment) ○ School to school feeders (no split feeders)

• Account For:

○ New developments, over time ○ Adjustment to adjacent catchments ○ Distance to school

Scenario 1 Elementary Schools

Boyertown ES Colebrookdale ES Earl ES Gilbertsville ES New Hanover-Upper Frederick ES Pine Forge ES Washington ES ES Boundaries (‘18/19) Proposed Boundary Changes Proposed ES Boundaries

Scenario 1 - Elementary Schools (Zoomed)

Scenario 1 Middle Schools

MS - East MS - West MS Boundaries (‘18/19) Proposed ES Boundaries Propose MS Boundaries

Scenario 1 - Projected Utilization

SY 2023/24

Projection Catchment Scenario 1 Catchment Name Student Capacity Students Util. Students Util. Boyertown ES 700 468 67% 623 89% Colebrookdale ES 350 276 79% 276 79% Earl ES 350 222 63% 222 63% Gilbertsville ES 700 959 137% 668 95% New Hanover-Upper Frederick ES 700 518 74% 654 93% Pine Forge ES 350 228 65% 228 65% Washington ES 700 545 78% 545 78% Boyertown MS-East 1,050 863 82% 855 81% Boyertown MS-West 860 733 85% 741 86% Boyertown HS 2,383 2,114 89% 2,114 89%

Scenario 1 – Student Impact

Attending School Total Stay New School Out of Bounds Attending New Back to Neighborhood Boyertown ES 443 367 12 64 Colebrookdale ES 261 206 55 Earl ES 244 215 29 Gilbertsville ES 675 498 159 18 New Hanover-Upper Frederick ES 670 561 48 61 Pine Forge ES 239 213 26 Washington ES 457 430 27 Boyertown MS-East 882 790 82 2 8 Boyertown MS-West 769 641 71 34 23 Totals 4,640 3,921 312 96 311 85% 7% 2% 7% Stay Students live in catchment and will continue at the same school. New School Students live in catchment and will move to a new school. Out of Bounds, Attending New Students live out of the catchment, but attend the school they would move to. Back to Neighborhood Students live out of the catchment and are calculated as if they were attending their neighborhood school (primarily students in the grey area).

Scenario 2

• Goals:

○ Balance building utilization (capacity vs enrollment) ○ School to school feeders (no split feeders) ○ Closure of Pine Forge Elementary School

• Account For:

○ New developments, over time ○ Adjustment to adjacent catchments ○ Distance to school

Scenario 2 Elementary Schools

Boyertown ES Colebrookdale ES Earl ES Gilbertsville ES New Hanover-Upper Frederick ES Washington ES ES Boundaries (‘18/19) Proposed Boundary Changes Proposed ES Boundaries

Scenario 2 - Elementary Schools (Zoomed)

Scenario 2 Middle Schools

MS - East MS - West MS Boundaries (‘18/19) Proposed ES Boundaries Propose MS Boundaries

Scenario 2 - Projected Utilization

SY 2023/24

Projection Catchment Scenario 2 Catchment Name Student Capacity Students Util.* Students Util.* Boyertown ES 700 468 67% 677 97% Colebrookdale ES 350 276 79% 343 98% Earl ES 350 222 63% 329 94% Gilbertsville ES 700 959 137% 668 95% New Hanover-Upper Frederick ES 700 518 74% 654 93% Pine Forge ES 350 228 65% 0% Washington ES 700 545 78% 545 78% Boyertown MS-East 1,050 863 82% 855 81% Boyertown MS-West 860 733 85% 741 86% Boyertown HS 2,383 2,114 89% 2,114 89%

*Should review on regular cycle

Scenario 2 – Student Impact

Attending School Total Stay New School Out of Bounds Attending New Back to Neighborhood Boyertown ES 443 367 20 56 Colebrookdale ES 261 206 1 54 Earl ES 244 161 54 5 24 Gilbertsville ES 675 498 159 18 New Hanover-Upper Frederick ES 670 561 48 61 Pine Forge ES 239 213 26 Washington ES 457 430 27 Boyertown MS-East 882 790 82 2 8 Boyertown MS-West 769 641 71 34 23 Totals 4,640 3,654 579 110 297 79% 12% 2% 6% Stay Students live in catchment and will continue at the same school. New School Students live in catchment and will move to a new school. Out of Bounds, Attending New Students live out of the catchment, but attend the school they would move to. Back to Neighborhood Students live out of the catchment and are calculated as if they were attending their neighborhood school.

Scenario 1 & 2 - Projected Utilization

SY 2023/24

Projection Catchment Scenario 1 Catchment Scenario 2 Catchment Name Student Capacity Students Util. Students Util.* Students Util.* Boyertown ES 700 468 67% 623 89% 677 97% Colebrookdale ES 350 276 79% 276 79% 343 98% Earl ES 350 222 63% 222 63% 329 94% Gilbertsville ES 700 959 137% 668 95% 668 95% New Hanover-Upper Frederick ES 700 518 74% 654 93% 654 93% Pine Forge ES 350 228 65% 228 65% 0% Washington ES 700 545 78% 545 78% 545 78% Boyertown MS-East 1,050 863 82% 855 81% 855 81% Boyertown MS-West 860 733 85% 741 86% 741 86% Boyertown HS 2,383 2,114 89% 2,114 89% 2,114 89%

*Should review on regular cycle

Summary – Dr. Bedden

The Power of Public Place: PK–12 School Facilities Infrastructure

The crisis of public school facilities inadequacy and inequity is caused by structural limitations in our underlying political and administrative systems for facilities stewardship. The facilities policies, practices, and funding of local, state, and federal authorities are outdated and underdeveloped. To ensure all school districts can provide adequate and equitable public school facilities, they need modern PK–12 facilities systems.

http://citiesandschools.berkeley.edu/uploads/PK12_Infrastructure_Priority_Actions_Report_06152017.pdf

The Power of Public Place: PK–12 School Facilities Infrastructure

The Power of Public Place: PK–12 School Facilities Infrastructure

The six basic elements of modern and effective public PK–12 facilities systems are: governance and decision making, funding, management, planning, data and information, and accountability.

The Importance of School Facilities in Improving Student Outcomes

A large body of research over the past century has consistently found that school facilities impact teaching and learning in profound ways. Yet state and local policymakers often overlook the impact facilities can play in improving

• utcomes for both teachers and students. While improving facilities comes

at a financial cost, the benefits of such investments often surpass the initial fiscal costs. Policymakers, thus, should focus greater attention on the impacts of facilities and adopt a long-term cost-benefit perspective on efforts to improve school facilities.

Penn State - Center for Evaluation and Education Policy Analysis, College of Education

https://sites.psu.edu/ceepa/2015/06/07/the-importance-of-school-facilities-in-improving-student-outcomes/

Possible Next Steps

Board Enrollment Committee Work Session – Maybe March 5, 2019 Two Community Meetings – March (TBD) @ MSE and MSW Board Voting Meeting – Late March or Early April

Comments/Questions: School Board Comments: Community

Please have index card and come to mic