BONUS BALTICAPP : Changing climate & changing society -> - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jun 13, 2023 321 likes •419 views

Water protection long time horizons BONUS BALTICAPP : Changing climate & changing society -> long-run management challenges Climate futures Socioeconomic futures Sources: ONeill et al (2014); Meinshausen et al (2011) Nutrients

SLIDE 1

Water protection – long time horizons BONUS BALTICAPP: Changing climate & changing society -> long-run management challenges

SLIDE 2

Socioeconomic futures Climate futures

Sources: O’Neill et al (2014); Meinshausen et al (2011)

SLIDE 3

RCO scobi Ecopath with ecosim Socioeconomic scenarios Climate scenarios Hydrol. Non-point Point-source Atm.dep Fisheries Choice experiment Contingent behavior Random utility modelling

Nutrients

Zandersen, M., Hyytiäinen, K., Meier, H.E.M, Tomczak, M.T., Bauer, B., Haapasaari, P., Olesen, J.E.O., Gustafsson, B.G., Refsgaard, J.C., Fridell, E., Pihlainen, S., Le Tissier, M.D.A., Kosenius, A.K, Van Vuuren, D.P. 2019. Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems. Regional Environmental Change https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0

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(a) Total N, SSP1 & RCP4.5

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Annual load, 1000 tons 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Non-point source Point source

NOx NHx

(b) Total P, SSP1 & RCP4.5

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 10 20 30 40

Non-point source Point

P-atm.

Moderate climate change (RCP4.5) & Sustainability (SSP1) NITROGEN PHOSPHORUS

SLIDE 5

High end climate change (RCP8.5) & Fossil fuelled development (SSP5) NITROGEN PHOSPHORUS

(g) Total N, SSP5 & RCP8.5

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Annual load, 1000 tons 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

(h) Total P, SSP5 & RCP8.5

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 10 20 30 40

Non-point Non-point Point Point Atm.dep.

NHx NOx

SLIDE 6

End of century: Sustainability (SSP1) & Moderate climate change (RCP4.5) End of century: Fossil fuelled development (SSP5) & High end climate change (RCP8.5) Current variability in annual loads

SLIDE 7

Some conclusions

Focus of mitigation efforts on phosphorus

Long-run challenge: good balance between food production and healthy aquatic environments

Global warming:

may impair the conditions for agriculture elsewhere
may improve the competitiveness and lead to expansion of fisheries

and agricultural sectors in the Baltic sea region Loads: Changing climate: ? Changing Society:

?

SLIDE 8

Socioeconomic scenarios: Marianne Zandersen, Aarhus University
Climate & biogeochemical modelling: Markus Meier, Leibniz-Institute

for Baltic Sea Research

Fisheries: Maciej Tomczak, Stockholm University
Water recreation benefits: Mikolaj Czajkowski, University of Warsaw
Non-market valuation: Eija Pouta, LUKE Finland